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The Padres' 18 trades since the start of the 2019-20 offseason that resulted in them acquiring major league talent are most by any team, as are the 23 players with major league experience the team acquired in those trades.

In that time, Preller traded away 18 minor leaguers who were among the team's top 30 prospects, as ranked by Baseball America. That includes six who were ranked in the top 12.

With all those machinations, the Padres believed they were building a perennial playoff team.

Instead, they will be watching the postseason again, for the 14th time in 15 years and the 47th time in their 53 years of existence.

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investorAg83 said:

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Yeah but at least they gave it a go.

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fc2112 said:

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investorAg83 said:

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Yeah but at least they gave it a go.

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Was it worth it to handicap your club for the next 5-7 years?

And if so, you were A-OK with where the Rangers are right now since we "went for it" as well?

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It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.

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fc2112 said:

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BTW - it was just one year ago we were all dreamy about what the Padres were doing - they were "all in" and we wished the Rangers would be like them.

Welp - they done **** the bed - gutted the farm system - $175 MM payroll this year - $162 MM next year.

A.J. Preller, that brainiac genius who MUST have been the brains behind the Rangers World Series runs, is in danger of losing his job. Same with Jayce Tingler.

The farm system was gutted to win NOW - and they're left with an inflated payroll, an empty farm system, and a sub .500 record.

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AggieEP said:

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You guys are dumb if you think this strategy works. I've broken this down over and over again, but smart franchises win because they make smart decisions. Bad franchises don't suddenly get good because they tanked for X number of years in a row. Even the Astros who are the poster boy for this method, really messed up on 2 of their very high draft picks, (Appell and Aiken) and one of them (Tucker) really only started contributing this year. The rest of their roster was just built in an intelligent way with players that any other team could have had as well. (i.e. not top 5 draft picks)

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Proposition Joe said:

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AggieEP said:

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You guys are dumb if you think this strategy works. I've broken this down over and over again, but smart franchises win because they make smart decisions. Bad franchises don't suddenly get good because they tanked for X number of years in a row. Even the Astros who are the poster boy for this method, really messed up on 2 of their very high draft picks, (Appell and Aiken) and one of them (Tucker) really only started contributing this year. The rest of their roster was just built in an intelligent way with players that any other team could have had as well. (i.e. not top 5 draft picks)

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Yeah, no.

The core of the Astros production their World Series year was made up of either players drafted near the top of the draft or players acquired by trading away some of those amassed picks.

Hell, Bregman and Correa alone put up a 10.7 WAR... When you've got two players that can produce that for next-to-nothin and have almost zero money locked up you can go out and buy the other 80 WAR.

Did a few things still have to go right? Sure. But make no mistake the strategy worked.

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fc2112 said:

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BTW - it was just one year ago we were all dreamy about what the Padres were doing - they were "all in" and we wished the Rangers would be like them.

Welp - they done **** the bed - gutted the farm system - $175 MM payroll this year - $162 MM next year.

A.J. Preller, that brainiac genius who MUST have been the brains behind the Rangers World Series runs, is in danger of losing his job. Same with Jayce Tingler.

The farm system was gutted to win NOW - and they're left with an inflated payroll, an empty farm system, and a sub .500 record.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/story/2021-09-27/padres-aj-preller-trades-free-agents-roster-process-timeline-machado-tatis-hosmer

Quote:

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The Padres' 18 trades since the start of the 2019-20 offseason that resulted in them acquiring major league talent are most by any team, as are the 23 players with major league experience the team acquired in those trades.

In that time, Preller traded away 18 minor leaguers who were among the team's top 30 prospects, as ranked by Baseball America. That includes six who were ranked in the top 12.

With all those machinations, the Padres believed they were building a perennial playoff team.

Instead, they will be watching the postseason again, for the 14th time in 15 years and the 47th time in their 53 years of existence.

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alvtimes said:

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fc2112 said:

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Quote:

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The Padres' 18 trades since the start of the 2019-20 offseason that resulted in them acquiring major league talent are most by any team, as are the 23 players with major league experience the team acquired in those trades.

In that time, Preller traded away 18 minor leaguers who were among the team's top 30 prospects, as ranked by Baseball America. That includes six who were ranked in the top 12.

With all those machinations, the Padres believed they were building a perennial playoff team.

Instead, they will be watching the postseason again, for the 14th time in 15 years and the 47th time in their 53 years of existence.

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Padres "gutted" farm system still has 4 top 100 players.

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DallasAg 94 said:

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alvtimes said:

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fc2112 said:

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Quote:

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The Padres' 18 trades since the start of the 2019-20 offseason that resulted in them acquiring major league talent are most by any team, as are the 23 players with major league experience the team acquired in those trades.

In that time, Preller traded away 18 minor leaguers who were among the team's top 30 prospects, as ranked by Baseball America. That includes six who were ranked in the top 12.

With all those machinations, the Padres believed they were building a perennial playoff team.

Instead, they will be watching the postseason again, for the 14th time in 15 years and the 47th time in their 53 years of existence.

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Padres "gutted" farm system still has 4 top 100 players.

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This is what Gutted looks like:

#6 CJ Abrams (SS-20-AA)
#37 Luis Campusano (C-23-AAA)
#43 Robert Hassell (OF-20-A+)
#56 MacKenzie Gore (LHP-22-AA)


#12 Jack Leiter (RHP-21)
#48 Josh Jung (3B-AAA-23)
#60 Cole Winn (RHP-AAA-21)
#83 Justin Foscue (2B-AA-22)
#91 Sam Huff (C/1B-AAA-23)

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vander54 said:

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I'm looking at Jung's stats and wondering why we haven't seen him yet.

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AggieEP said:

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Believe this all you want, the top 30 in batting WAR this year consists of only 4 top 10 picks. And the top 30 in pitching WAR also includes only 4 top 10 picks.

The baseball draft is just too much of a crap shoot to assume picking in the top 5 is going to net you a winning club.

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alvtimes said:

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DallasAg 94 said:

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alvtimes said:

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fc2112 said:

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Quote:

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The Padres' 18 trades since the start of the 2019-20 offseason that resulted in them acquiring major league talent are most by any team, as are the 23 players with major league experience the team acquired in those trades.

In that time, Preller traded away 18 minor leaguers who were among the team's top 30 prospects, as ranked by Baseball America. That includes six who were ranked in the top 12.

With all those machinations, the Padres believed they were building a perennial playoff team.

Instead, they will be watching the postseason again, for the 14th time in 15 years and the 47th time in their 53 years of existence.

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Padres "gutted" farm system still has 4 top 100 players.

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This is what Gutted looks like:

#6 CJ Abrams (SS-20-AA)
#37 Luis Campusano (C-23-AAA)
#43 Robert Hassell (OF-20-A+)
#56 MacKenzie Gore (LHP-22-AA)


#12 Jack Leiter (RHP-21)
#48 Josh Jung (3B-AAA-23)
#60 Cole Winn (RHP-AAA-21)
#83 Justin Foscue (2B-AA-22)
#91 Sam Huff (C/1B-AAA-23)

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not sure where u are going with this..but if u are cheerleading for the Rangers ..... compare rosters

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vander54 said:

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I'm looking at Jung's stats and wondering why we haven't seen him yet.

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vander54 said:

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alvtimes said:

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DallasAg 94 said:

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alvtimes said:

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fc2112 said:

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Quote:

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The Padres' 18 trades since the start of the 2019-20 offseason that resulted in them acquiring major league talent are most by any team, as are the 23 players with major league experience the team acquired in those trades.

In that time, Preller traded away 18 minor leaguers who were among the team's top 30 prospects, as ranked by Baseball America. That includes six who were ranked in the top 12.

With all those machinations, the Padres believed they were building a perennial playoff team.

Instead, they will be watching the postseason again, for the 14th time in 15 years and the 47th time in their 53 years of existence.

---

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Padres "gutted" farm system still has 4 top 100 players.

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This is what Gutted looks like:

#6 CJ Abrams (SS-20-AA)
#37 Luis Campusano (C-23-AAA)
#43 Robert Hassell (OF-20-A+)
#56 MacKenzie Gore (LHP-22-AA)

#12 Jack Leiter (RHP-21)
#48 Josh Jung (3B-AAA-23)
#60 Cole Winn (RHP-AAA-21)
#83 Justin Foscue (2B-AA-22)
#91 Sam Huff (C/1B-AAA-23)

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not sure where u are going with this..but if u are cheerleading for the Rangers ..... compare rosters

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It's pretty easy to see where he's going. He saying they still have better top farm system talent than us despite being "gutted"

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Proposition Joe said:

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AggieEP said:

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Believe this all you want, the top 30 in batting WAR this year consists of only 4 top 10 picks. And the top 30 in pitching WAR also includes only 4 top 10 picks.

The baseball draft is just too much of a crap shoot to assume picking in the top 5 is going to net you a winning club.

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It's been well established the Top 10 in any given year doesn't net you guaranteed performers.

But the Top 1 or 2 is wholly different.

Which is why Houston took it to another level and went after the overall number one in consecutive seasons.

Here are the 13 years top picks prior to Houston drafting #1 overall:

2011 overall #1: Gerrit Cole
2010 overall #1: Bryce Harper
2009 overall #1: Stephen Strasburg
2008 overall #1: Tim Beckhem
2007 overall #1: David Price
2006 overall #1: Luke Hochevar
2005 overall #1: Justin Upton
2004 overall #1: Matt Bush
2003 overall #1: Delmon Young
2002 overall #1: Bryan Bullington
2001 overall #1: Joe Mauer
2000 overall #1: Adrian Gonzalez
1999 overall #1: Josh Hamilton



Gut your payroll to where you have a hundred million to spend and pick two of the players from that above list and tell me you aren't in a significantly better position at making a run 3-4 years down the line than most other teams? Silly to even imply otherwise.

Is it a guarantee? No. But it's hardly a crapshoot. Houston wasn't hoping to "get lucky" when they made their historical tank job - they knew where they would be on the other side of it.

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AggieEP said:

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Think about that, if they would have signed Aiken, maybe no world series for the Astros despite the tank job.

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vander54 said:

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alvtimes said:

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DallasAg 94 said:

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alvtimes said:

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fc2112 said:

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Quote:

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The Padres' 18 trades since the start of the 2019-20 offseason that resulted in them acquiring major league talent are most by any team, as are the 23 players with major league experience the team acquired in those trades.

In that time, Preller traded away 18 minor leaguers who were among the team's top 30 prospects, as ranked by Baseball America. That includes six who were ranked in the top 12.

With all those machinations, the Padres believed they were building a perennial playoff team.

Instead, they will be watching the postseason again, for the 14th time in 15 years and the 47th time in their 53 years of existence.

---

---

Padres "gutted" farm system still has 4 top 100 players.

---

This is what Gutted looks like:

#6 CJ Abrams (SS-20-AA)
#37 Luis Campusano (C-23-AAA)
#43 Robert Hassell (OF-20-A+)
#56 MacKenzie Gore (LHP-22-AA)


#12 Jack Leiter (RHP-21)
#48 Josh Jung (3B-AAA-23)
#60 Cole Winn (RHP-AAA-21)
#83 Justin Foscue (2B-AA-22)
#91 Sam Huff (C/1B-AAA-23)

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not sure where u are going with this..but if u are cheerleading for the Rangers ..... compare rosters

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It's pretty easy to see where he's going. He saying they still have better top farm system talent than us despite being "gutted"

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AggieEP said:

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Proposition Joe said:

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AggieEP said:

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Believe this all you want, the top 30 in batting WAR this year consists of only 4 top 10 picks. And the top 30 in pitching WAR also includes only 4 top 10 picks.

The baseball draft is just too much of a crap shoot to assume picking in the top 5 is going to net you a winning club.

---

It's been well established the Top 10 in any given year doesn't net you guaranteed performers.

But the Top 1 or 2 is wholly different.

Which is why Houston took it to another level and went after the overall number one in consecutive seasons.

Here are the 13 years top picks prior to Houston drafting #1 overall:

2011 overall #1: Gerrit Cole
2010 overall #1: Bryce Harper
2009 overall #1: Stephen Strasburg
2008 overall #1: Tim Beckhem
2007 overall #1: David Price
2006 overall #1: Luke Hochevar
2005 overall #1: Justin Upton
2004 overall #1: Matt Bush
2003 overall #1: Delmon Young
2002 overall #1: Bryan Bullington
2001 overall #1: Joe Mauer
2000 overall #1: Adrian Gonzalez
1999 overall #1: Josh Hamilton



Gut your payroll to where you have a hundred million to spend and pick two of the players from that above list and tell me you aren't in a significantly better position at making a run 3-4 years down the line than most other teams? Silly to even imply otherwise.

Is it a guarantee? No. But it's hardly a crapshoot. Houston wasn't hoping to "get lucky" when they made their historical tank job - they knew where they would be on the other side of it.

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You inadvertently are making my point for me by posting those picks. If your tank years were from 2001 (getting top pick in 2002) through 2005 a full 5 year tank job, the only player worth anything you would have come out of there with is Justin Upton and maybe Delmon Young if you really want to stretch. That's a consecutive stretch where there was only a 20% hit rate on the overall number 1 pick. You could even extend it 2 more years adding Price and worthless Beckham, and now it's only 2 out of 7 for the hit rate.

And, this also means you have to be bad enough to get the number one pick for consecutive seasons which is hard to do.

Houston got the number 1 pick 3 straight years and only got it right once. They totally whiffed on Appel and Aiken and only through exceptional luck did they get the consolation pick the next year after Aiken which became Bergman. Think about that, if they would have signed Aiken, maybe no world series for the Astros despite the tank job.

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