*****Official Texas Rangers 2021 Season Thread*****

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DannyDuberstein
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In reply to rbtexan • 9:25p, 9/23/21
AG
That's what I expect as well. I just consider this offseason to be the true litmus test. I can at least see the angle for the past few years that bargain bin shopping was the only thing that made sense. Any big signings the past few years just win meaningless games, hurt your draft pick, and the guy's contract is close to up before you hope to win again.

But with where the payroll is now + a buyers market + they've been able to restock the farm with 3-4 years of high picks and trades, this is the time to accelerate building something here. If they don't, then we have our answer for sure
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Mr Gigem
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10:34p, 9/23/21
AG
This off-season will be a true test to see if Chris Young has any real impact in pulling the team out of the rebuild
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DallasAg 94
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10:58p, 9/23/21
I see lots of posts about how this off-season will determine how you view the ownership.

Where is your line of true investment?

I've stated we need 3-4 pieces at $10M/yr each for the lineup and likely 3 SPs.

I think the Rangers need to sign a minimum of 6 players with a TACV (Total Annual Contract Value) of about $85M to even be taken serious. Anything less than that and you will know this ownership group is just in it for the money.

I project they'll sign 5-6 players with a TACV of about $45-50M.

And I will leave this post (Or someone can reply-quote it.
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hawk1689
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5:16a, 9/24/21
AG
I think that if you get 5-6 players at the $85MM amount, you would be getting more of the same. I think you could get about 2-3 impact players for that amount of money and they would probably come with serious question marks (i.e. Story or Syndergaard). In my opinion, The Rangers are doing what's right in that they aren't willing to pay more than the player's value. The problem is that the market over pays. I think the Rangers offered players like Gallo and Rendon a fair amount for the production they thought those players would provide. It wasn't close to what those players either received or are expecting to receive. They're avoiding those franchise crippling contracts that would hamper them when some of their young talent becomes the impact players they need to compete.
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AggieEP
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6:03a, 9/24/21
I'm still heavy on the idea of acquiring Buxton from the twins and extending him for 7-8 years. At bare minimum you get the best defensive CF in the game and the upper limit of potential is a 8 WAR player.

I'd also be after Conforto, Bryant, Castellanos (if he opts out) and Story. Not obviously going to get all 5 of those guys, but if you could somehow get 3 of them then the lineup immediately becomes MLB quality especially in the outfield.

For pitching, the bargain bin is probably the way to go. 2 to 3 year contracts for maybe one or two guys. Just not a good investment to sign pitchers long term.

If they do this (we know they want) next year could be fun again.
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hawk1689
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In reply to AggieEP • 6:10a, 9/24/21
AG
I'm interested in Conforto at the right price. I think the others are going to cost too much.
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AggieEP
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In reply to hawk1689 • 6:17a, 9/24/21
The outside factor here is that most of the big market teams are kind of maxed out right now. So to get these guys you just have to be willing to pay more than the other cheap teams.

I'd do 4-5 years at 20-25 million for Story or Bryant.

4 years at 20 for Castellanos or Conforto.

I'm not sure I see any team going much higher than that.
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hawk1689
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In reply to AggieEP • 6:35a, 9/24/21
AG
AggieEP said:
The outside factor here is that most of the big market teams are kind of maxed out right now. So to get these guys you just have to be willing to pay more than the other cheap teams.

I'd do 4-5 years at 20-25 million for Story or Bryant.

4 years at 20 for Castellanos or Conforto.

I'm not sure I see any team going much higher than that.
I would do all of those deals except for that many years for Conforto. I've just seen too many Jason Heywards and Matt Kemps in my day. Some team out there is going to get talked into the idea that those guys are the missing piece.
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WestTexasAg
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8:07a, 9/24/21
AG
Lots of confidence in our front office I see.
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DallasAg 94
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2:00p, 9/24/21
Jake Arrieta. DFA'ed by Cubbies. $10M option for 2022, $2M buyout.

He gets $2M buyout... Rangers sign the 35yo aging, home-town project.

He'd be the best SP on the Rangers next year.

Prophet.
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rbtexan
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In reply to DallasAg 94 • 3:18p, 9/24/21
S
That would be the typical Rangers signing
Jimbo Franchione
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AggieEP
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In reply to WestTexasAg • 4:12p, 9/24/21
Not really confidence, but right now the salary commitments for next year are so minimal it's crazy. We could probably field a team for under 20 million total as of right now.

That tells me they have to spend at least 20 million more to not create serious problems going forward with the perception of the team and 40 million seems entirely plausible as a baseline expectation. Chris Young is a smart guy, I just don't see him blowing 40 million on 3 Jake Arriettas, 4 Marwin Gonzalezs and 18 bags of balls. If he's got 40 million to spend, he needs 2 guys that can get him 5 WAR each. The young kids (well service time young) are on the way probably starting next year and we want to have them join a real big league club not a 110 loss disaster of a team and we don't want to clog up too many spots on the big league club if we think these young guys can play.
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DallasAg 94
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In reply to AggieEP • 5:24p, 9/24/21
I thought MLB had a requirement for minimum payroll, but I can't find anything. I have seen where the Owners have proposed $100M flloor.

This article suggests Oak is the bottom in revenue (based on Statista) at $200M.

We also know teams hide money. For example Hicks created a separate organization and put the parking lots in that corporation to hide the parking revenue. That was where I thought MLB required teams to spend on a payroll no lower than like 40% of revenue.

I'm sure with Live!, et al revenue sources... teams are going to protect visibility into that revenue.

The Rangers have $19M going to Odor and Andrus, so technically, $20M isn't possible. Also, a Serf is getting about $570K X 25 = $14M... but I get your point.

It really goes beyond just the $$. If they add too many egos too quickly they will have clubhouse issues.

Adding 2-3 major contributors is a bunch to ask. That was why I indicated they needed to compete in 2021, by adding 2-3 players. We'd go into 2022 with some questions answered.

Right now, we have 3 guy for 15 regular contributors: 8 D, 5 SP, DH, Cl

We have a SS (IKF), a CF (Adolis), and a meh SP (Dunning).

We have 12 spots right now that we can pick up improvement from anyone on the street. If we get 3... it will be a productive off-season. We need 6. There will be misses.
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Mr Gigem
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6:04p, 9/24/21
AG
In other news...

I have 16 employee ticket vouchers leftover that I would like to give away in sets of 2 or 4. First come, first served. Send me an email if you are interested. jchance@texasrangers.com
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AggieEP
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In reply to DallasAg 94 • 7:14p, 9/24/21
I had forgot we had a bit of dead money left to Andrus and Odor, but in terms of on the team salary, the Rangers could set the modern record for lowest payroll if they strike out in Free Agency.

I think if you're the Rangers you probably guess that service time manipulation is a thing of the past in the new CBA, so you need to pencil in Huff at catcher and Jung at 3rd to start next year and figure out what you have. I know you guys like Adolis.... But he's got a .280 OBP, he's not a full time player on a winning team, he's a bench guy IMO. IKF can play SS or 2B next year, so that's 3 of your positions accounted for. I'm willing to give Calhoun and Solak spots too and Lowe has been serviceable at 1st as well.

C - Huff
1B - Lowe
2B - IKF
SS - FA signing, hopefully Story
3B - Jung
LF - Calhoun and Solak platoon
CF - Buxton (my dream)
RF - Castellanos, Conforto or Bryant

That's a lineup we can optimistically follow next year with best case scenarios that include being really good.

The pitching will obviously be a mess, but if Leiter, Winn and Howard can make progress that gives hope for some top of the rotation talent at some point and maybe the other guys can be at least average.

So my dream scenario is to sign 2 free agents and find a way to acquire Buxton. If we miss on Story we can sign 2 outfielders and just keep IKF at SS and Solak at 2B. I'll be very disappointed if the Rangers don't even pretend to make something like this happen.
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rbtexan
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7:27p, 9/24/21
S
Story is overrated.
Jimbo Franchione
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DannyDuberstein
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7:39p, 9/24/21
AG
Yeah, no thanks on Story
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AggieEP
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In reply to DannyDuberstein • 9:32p, 9/24/21
Story, like pretty much all Rockies has extreme Coors field splits. I totally understand why some would say pass on him, and you can book mark this and make fun of me if wanted. But someone is going to sign him for 5 years, and I think he'll be great for 3 of those years and solidly above average the other 2. I think he's coming into his prime and is one of those players due to take a step forward by harnessing some of his statcast hero skills into consistent results.

I also think because of the Coors field bias, he may be signable at a relative discount from Correa, Baez and Seager who are the other big SS FAs out there.

Again bookmark it, Story will be a better player based on AAV/WAR than Correa, Seager or Baez.
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investorAg83
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In reply to AggieEP • 9:34p, 9/24/21
AG
AggieEP said:
Story, like pretty much all Rockies has extreme Coors field splits. I totally understand why some would say pass on him, and you can book mark this and make fun of me if wanted. But someone is going to sign him for 5 years, and I think he'll be great for 3 of those years and solidly above average the other 2. I think he's coming into his prime and is one of those players due to take a step forward by harnessing some of his statcast hero skills into consistent results.
I agree with you and think we're in the minority.
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AggieEP
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In reply to rbtexan • 9:53p, 9/24/21
rbtexan said:
Story is overrated.


I'm probably hammering this into the ground, but his average season since he came up is .272/340 with an .864 OPS.

Francisco Lindor's splits over the same period...

.279/.344 with an .822 OPS.

Lindor signed a 300 million dollar contract and has on average been a tad worse than Story.

Correa... .277/.356 with an .837 OPS.

When you compare these guys, I believe Story is going to sign for less and he's been about the same exact level of player.

There aren't often chances to lock down a player that can give you an .850 OPS at SS.

Saying he's over rated is just poor analysis based on a flawed mindset that consistently undervalues players in Colorado.

We saw it with DJ Lemahieu when he was a free agent as well, teams almost refused to invest in him based on playing in Colorado.
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rbtexan
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In reply to AggieEP • 9:55p, 9/24/21
S
I'm looking at his road vs home stats and there's a substantial difference. Agree to disagree....I think he's overrated and won't be worth what it'll take to sign him.
Jimbo Franchione
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investorAg83
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In reply to AggieEP • 10:08p, 9/24/21
AG
AggieEP said:
rbtexan said:
Story is overrated.


I'm probably hammering this into the ground, but his average season since he came up is .272/340 with an .864 OPS.

Francisco Lindor's splits over the same period...

.279/.344 with an .822 OPS.

Lindor signed a 300 million dollar contract and has on average been a tad worse than Story.

Correa... .277/.356 with an .837 OPS.

When you compare these guys, I believe Story is going to sign for less and he's been about the same exact level of player.

There aren't often chances to lock down a player that can give you an .850 OPS at SS.

Saying he's over rated is just poor analysis based on a flawed mindset that consistently undervalues players in Colorado.

We saw it with DJ Lemahieu when he was a free agent as well, teams almost refused to invest in him based on playing in Colorado.
Very interesting comparison. Similar stories with splits but with Story showing much more pop at a younger age. He'll be changing teams at a similar age as DJ and he's had arguably more success after he left the Rockies. Who's to say Story can't do the same thing?

I've always been a fan of his but had doubts based on some opinions on this board. The more I'm diving into the numbers myself, the more I want to sign him.
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DeangeloVickers
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10:24p, 9/24/21
AG
I think we should tank again. We need too many pieces

It sucks but our farm system is booboo
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AggieEP
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In reply to rbtexan • 10:26p, 9/24/21
We agree that his Coors home splits are insane and worrisome.

But look at Ozzie Albies, pretty much the same thing and Atlanta isn't a hitters park. Some guys just play better at home for some unknown reason.

This isn't so much a disagreement as much as me making an argument that getting Story at 5/110 million or even 6/125 would be a fantastic value compared to 9 or 10 years for someone like Correa or Seager.

For me the key in any FA contract is getting the AAV right based on what the player brings and NOT getting stuck paying for what we'll call "the Cabrera Years" of a deal where you sign a guy to a contract that commits you to paying them 20 million plus to a 38 year old negative WAR player. I think Story might be forced to sign for 5 years because of the bias against Rockies which will protect the signing team from those Cabrera Years. The lack of a trade market for him this summer seems to confirm some of what I suspect. In fact he could struggle to get 100 million from anyone and in that case I'll be royally pissed if the Rangers don't make serious inquiries.
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hawk1689
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In reply to AggieEP • 6:58a, 9/25/21
AG
If you're going to use BA and OPS in the comparison, you have to factor in Coors. I'm not sure why some of you think Story is going to be on the cheap. He's got an agent that is paid to say otherwise. Someone will give him the $$$.
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DallasAg 94
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In reply to DallasAg 94 • 11:10p, 9/26/21
DallasAg 94 said:

Here is our rotation in 2022, as it stands:

Dunning (26-R): 23 GS, 4.34 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 110.0 IP, 106K
Allard (24-L): 17GS, 5.42 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 119.2 IP, 99K
Hearn (27-L): 10GS, 4.55 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 99.0 IP, 90K
AJ Alexy (23-R): 3GS, 5.00 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 18.0 IP, 15K

and one of:
Howard (25-R): 6GS, 9.22 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 13.2 IP, 15K
Otto (25-R): 4GS, 9.37 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 16.1 IP, 19K
Angels had $182M in 2021 payroll.

They have $111M committed to salary in 2022, including best OF (Trout), MVP (Ohtani), and one of the best 3B in the game - Rendon. The guys in the lineup that are far better than anything the Rangers have. Rendon has been meh, but at 31... will he turn it around? We'll see. Pressure is mounting.

Coming off the books:
$30.0M Pujols - 24G, .198
$16.5M Fowler - 7G, .250
$ 9.1M Iglesias SS, .259, 8 HR, 114G, .295 OBP

$15.0M Alex Cobb - 17GS, 3.46 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
$ 8.3M Bundy - 19 GS, 6.06 ERA
--------
$78.9M

There is a strong likelihood, the Angels add that $70M for 2022.

They have young pitching. Their numbers are far better than our young pitchers:
Sandoval (24): 14 GS, 17G, 87.0 IP, 3.62 ERA, 1.21 WHIP
Suarez (23): 13 GS, 22G, 93.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Barria (25): 11 GS, 13 G, 56.2 IP, 4.61 ERA, 1.57 WHIP

The Angels are 74-82 (17G ahead of Texas) and will be taking off $46.5M in Offensive dead weight.

We'll be competing for the same FAs. Even money, would Story want to play with Trout, Ohtani, and Rendon... or would he prefer to play with IKF, Adolis, and Dunning?! That isn't to say someone else doesn't gets Story.

The best SP available... who gets 1st pass? The team hoping to be at .500 next season (Rangers), or the team sniffing the playoffs (Angels)?
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Mr Gigem
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6:38a, 9/27/21
AG
Of course the counter is the Angels have spent that much money and have multiple MVP-caliber players on the roster and haven't even sniffed the postseason. For them, it's not the players. It's a very poorly managed ball club. Does Story want to be involved with that?
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fc2112
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12:39p, 9/27/21
Just because $46 MM is coming off the Angels payroll doesn't mean they have $46 MM to spend.
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Mr Gigem
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In reply to Mr Gigem • 7:13a, 9/28/21
AG
Mr Gigem said:
In other news...

I have 16 employee ticket vouchers leftover that I would like to give away in sets of 2 or 4. First come, first served. Send me an email if you are interested. jchance@texasrangers.com


All vouchers have been claimed
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Schall 02
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4:43p, 9/28/21
AG
I just want them to sign someone(s) we can get enthused about. Story would qualify. Who knows if he's "worth" the market, but he'd make our team better over the winter, and that hasn't happened in a while.
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KT 90
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In reply to Mr Gigem • 6:54p, 9/28/21
AG
Mr Gigem said:
Mr Gigem said:
In other news...

I have 16 employee ticket vouchers leftover that I would like to give away in sets of 2 or 4. First come, first served. Send me an email if you are interested. jchance@texasrangers.com


All vouchers have been claimed

Good on you for doing this! I'm out of town and no time to try to make a game, so didn't even try for one of these, but I do appreciate you doing this for this board.

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Mr Gigem
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In reply to Schall 02 • 6:57p, 9/28/21
AG
Schall 02 said:
I just want them to sign someone(s) we can get enthused about. Story would qualify. Who knows if he's "worth" the market, but he'd make our team better over the winter, and that hasn't happened in a while.


I've heard some rumors about Syndergaard
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DeangeloVickers
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In reply to Mr Gigem • 7:08p, 9/28/21
AG
Mr Gigem said:
Schall 02 said:
I just want them to sign someone(s) we can get enthused about. Story would qualify. Who knows if he's "worth" the market, but he'd make our team better over the winter, and that hasn't happened in a while.


I've heard some rumors about Syndergaard
He did meet the prerequisite of Tommy John
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fc2112
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7:26a, 9/29/21
My son had a few classes with Noah at Mansfield Legacy. A friend of mine is one of his financial advisors.

He would love to play in this stadium if a deal can be reached.
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KT 90
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In reply to fc2112 • 7:35a, 9/29/21
AG
fc2112 said:
My son had a few classes with Noah at Mansfield Legacy. A friend of mine is one of his financial advisors.

He would love to play in this stadium if a deal can be reached.
Don't tease me like that. It's not even the off season yet.

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