**Official Game of Thrones: Season 5 Thread (BOOK READERS/SPOILERS ALLOWED)**

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aggie93
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AG
Based on previews it looked like they were going after Loras as there is a scene that showed a trial with his "friend" from the brothel. Seems pretty thin to me compared to the book plot but it will give the GOT folks a chance to go SJW on the gay thing.
Southlake
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Hard to believe Natalie Dormer is also the film maker in the Mockingj Jay.
AggieSouth06
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quote:
Based on previews it looked like they were going after Loras as there is a scene that showed a trial with his "friend" from the brothel. Seems pretty thin to me compared to the book plot but it will give the GOT folks a chance to go SJW on the gay thing.


I bet they blackmail Loras's lover into saying he was Margaery's lover by threatening to reveal his homosexuality. They may kill two birds with one stone and have him say he was sleeping with both siblings... Bonus incest points.
The Debt
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I was thinking on the Lannister/Crown retaliation of Sansa/Ramsay/LF and this is what I came up with. (One term I will abbreviate Men of Fighting Age, MOFA)

1) Which kingdoms/areas would invade the north over Sansa? Reigniting war and debt.
Vale - No
Iron Isles - No
Riverlands - No
Westerlands - Absolutely
Stormlands - Probably/maybe (some may still see Tommen as a Baratheon)
Dorne - hell no
Dragonstone - no
Reach - Since Margery is Queen, perhaps they march, but it would be very half-hearted. (Remember they conspired with LF to kill Joffrey). If they march they may pivot to kill off the Lannisters.

What is the state of the Lannister war machine? Broke. No! In debt. I think its reasonable to say they have less than half their MOFA. (Tywin split his armies into two Jaime with one, and he with the other, likely another third played defense in casterlyrock, KL, certain keeps). The battle where Jaime was captured prolly knocked out 1/3, then there was a dance for months, but Robb was pillaging the westerlands. "they are winning" tywin. iirc the lannisters were forced to purchase sellswords. It may be plausible that of Westerland men, they may be down around 1/3 from the start of the story. But some would inevitably have to play defense again. The lannisters ability to campaign, to pro-ject, is gone imo.

Stormlands how many died at the Blackwater? After Renly, some went with Stannis others with Loras. But they seem leaderless. Even if the banners were called, who would they be loyal to? The answer is Tommen alone. They dgaf about Kevan or Cercei. So Tommen would have to lead the charge for revenge. Considering he benefits from his brothers death (Margery's twt and the crown) why does he seek revenge. Plus Margery would have to convince him, and she has the ability to dissuade him.

Since the North is likely at ~40% MOFA they are still a threat. And even if the other six kingdoms magically aligned, most Lords arent dumb enough to march on the north on the eve of Winter.

So I contend, there isnt a single country that could/would attempt to bring Sansa to justice, which makes the plausible alliance with Stannis more entertaining. She is seen as someone who killed one of his usurpers, that must endear her to him on some level, plus she has the right name. The only problem is, is she were given warden of the north, she is expected to marry. There arent too many lords left to align her with. Marrying her to LF or Robyn doesnt help LF, he considers her an asset already.

Dorne has female heirs, they arent gonna introduce the dude who crispies in Mereen. I dont think Loras is available, nor to I think they would openly rebel against the crown while they have a queenscrown on Marg. Iron Isles, maybe one of Balons brothers. Sansa is without strategic bachelors.

BUT! The world is different if Jon is a Stark.
AgLaw
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AG
quote:
Hard to believe Natalie Dormer is also the film maker in the Mockingj Jay.
I always thought she was awesome in The Turdors, but now she's playing Margery the exact same way.
AggieHank86
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AG
quote:
quote:
Hard to believe Natalie Dormer is also the film maker in the Mockingj Jay.
I always thought she was awesome in The Turdors, but now she's playing Margery the exact same way.
Her character was kind of ****ty in Captain America, too.
W.C. Griffin '09
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AG
Are the Lannisters in debt? The crown is deeply in debt but I thought Cersei and Tywin both refused to use Casterly Rock funds to pay those debts. Yes they have been conducting a war but Casterly Rock is literally a gold mine
The Debt
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quote:
quote:
Are the Lannisters in debt? The crown is deeply in debt but I thought Cersei and Tywin both refused to use Casterly Rock funds to pay those debts. Yes they have been conducting a war but Casterly Rock is literally a gold mine


Aren't the gold mines dry? Seems like some one talked about how there hasn't been any actual gold mined from there in a century.


As dry ad Dany's ovaries.

the show hit this point home when Tywin asked cercei if she could guess how much gold they mined this last year. Not only are they broke BUT they have been taking loans from the iron bank in order to loan Robert Baratheon money. Then the war.

This is why it has been hammered home that the tyrells money saved KL and the lannisters.

One could imagine that the lannisters might not be "broke" broke but has a trust of "ten million" stags and has been borrowing for their expenses and keeping appearances. If they owe "fifty million" stags to the iron bank and the crown owes them "fifteen million" stags, they have that 10M in assets that make them appear super rich. Assets v liabilities they are -25M.

Tywins gamble was to weather all these debts, win the war, then slowly finance these payments after his dynasty was established. I think that's why Tywin was disgusted with the wedding spending. He hopes some of the tyrells personal wealth could pay the crowns debts (meaning to the iron bank and the lannisters, so he can pay the iron bank).
Zombie Jon Snow
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AG
quote:
quote:
Are the Lannisters in debt? The crown is deeply in debt but I thought Cersei and Tywin both refused to use Casterly Rock funds to pay those debts. Yes they have been conducting a war but Casterly Rock is literally a gold mine


Aren't the gold mines dry? Seems like some one talked about how there hasn't been any actual gold mined from there in a century.
just because they are dry doesn't mean they are broke...just not mining any new gold....

i believe it is the Crown that is broke, not the Lannisters...the crown in fact borrowed from the Lanisters (3 million gold dragons if i recall Littlefinger talking about it) and also has huge debts (we don't know how much) owed to the iron bank that tywin has talked about with Cersei....

now some of this is book and some is TV show....but Kevan Lannister in the epilogue to ADWD considered whether he should just pay off the entire Crown debt owed to the Iron Bank himself...that would imply he has quite a bit of money.....i suspect the other lannisters are plenty wealthy too but not keen on continuing to fund the Crown themselves.

IMHO

i picture it like this...the Lannisters are personally wealthy (although quite a bit of that may be owed to them) and they have a business (the Crown) which bleeds money and they have been keeping it afloat with loans from others.
The Debt
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Kevan payment, I may have to read that chapter again, but whatever the number presented in the small council when ned was hand was enough to make him believe it was already on the brink in financial ruin.

Somehow I doubt the lannisters have enough to save the entire crown comprised of seven kingdoms, and a costly war. If the second brother had that kind of wealth to begin with, Tywin certainly wouldn't need to get loans.
Zombie Jon Snow
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Kevan payment, I may have to read that chapter again, but whatever the number presented in the small council when ned was hand was enough to make him believe it was already on the brink in financial ruin.

Somehow I doubt the lannisters have enough to save the entire crown comprised of seven kingdoms, and a costly war. If the second brother had that kind of wealth to begin with, Tywin certainly wouldn't need to get loans.

It says:

quote:
Grand Maester Pycelle bobbed his head. "Dragons. These same stories have reached Oldtown. Too many to discount. A silver-haired queen with three dragons."

"At the far end of the world," said Mace Tyrell. "Queen of Slaver's Bay, aye. She is welcome to it."

"On that we can agree," Ser Kevan said, "but the girl is of the blood of Aegon the Conqueror, and I do not think she will be content to remain in Meereen forever. If she should reach these shores and join her strength to Lord Connington and this prince of his, feigned or no ... we must destroy Connington and his pretender now, before Daenerys Stormborn can come west."

Mace Tyrell crossed his arms. "I mean to do just that, ser. After the trials."

"Sellswords fight for coin," declared Grand Maester Pycelle. "With enough gold, we might persuade the Golden Company to hand over Lord Connington and the pretender."

"Aye, if we had gold," Ser Harys Swyft said. "Alas, my lords, our vaults contain only rats and roaches. I have written again to the Myrish bankers. If they will agree to make good the crown's debt to the Braavosi and extend us a new loan, mayhaps we will not have to raise the taxes. Else-wise - "

"The magisters of Pentos have been known to lend money as well,"said Ser Kevan. "Try them." The Pentoshi were even less like to be of help than the Myrish money changers, but the effort must be made. Unless a new source of coin could be found, or the Iron Bank persuaded to relent, he would have no choice but to pay the crown's debts with Lannister gold. He dare not resort to new taxes, not with the Seven Kingdoms crawling with rebellion. Half the lords in the realm could not tell taxation from tyranny, and would bolt to the nearest usurper in a heartbeat if it would save them a clipped copper. "If that fails, you may well need to go to Braavos, to treat with the Iron Bank yourself."

Ser Harys quailed. "Must I?"

"You are the master of coin," Lord Randyll said sharply. "I am."

The puff of white hair at the end of Swyft's chin quivered in outrage."Must I remind my lord, this trouble is not of my doing? And not all of us have had the opportunity to refill our coffers with the plunder of Maidenpool and Dragonstone."

"I resent your implication, Swyft," Mace Tyrell said, bristling. "No wealth was found on Dragonstone, I promise you. My son's men have searched every inch of that damp and dreary island and turned up not so much as a single gemstone or speck of gold. Nor any sign of this fabled hoard of dragon eggs."

Kevan Lannister had seen Dragonstone with his own eyes. He doubted very much that Loras Tyrell had searched every inch of that ancient stronghold. The Valyrians had raised it, after all, and all their works stank of sorcery. And Ser Loras was young, prone to all the rash judgments of youth, and had been grievously wounded storming the castle besides. But it would not do to remind Tyrell that his favorite son was fallible. "If there was wealth on Dragonstone, Stannis would have found it," he declared.
The Debt
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I don't think that means that kevan has enough to pay the full amount, nor does that seem like the language of the text, but just using lannisters funds to pay on the crowns debts.
aggie93
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AG
The Lannisters of the books have plenty of gold, the Lannisters of the show are essentially broke and living on credit. Honestly the entire storyline that the mines suddenly and essentially simultaneously ran dry after thousands of years of mining is just another sloppy detail of the show. Regardless, the plot of the books and show are very different on that point. The reason the Lannisters didn't pay the crown debts in the books is so they could maintain control even more, the debt the crown owed to the Lannisters made it that much harder for others to want to claim the throne and it gave Tywin immense power over Robert before his death.

If Sansa married Ramsay the Tyrells would have no choice but to declare war, at least logically. Sansa is officially an accomplice to the regicide of Joffrey who was the brother of Tommen and the husband of Margaery. The fact Bolton would be betraying them in doing so only makes it worse. Of course the real difficulty they would have is the Vale is essentially full strength. I don't know that the Lannisters/Tyrells would march North just yet but they would certainly be prepared to repel an attack and they would plot against them. Once again the issue I have is I don't understand what LF has to gain by the marriage. Bolton is on the ropes as it is and is going to have to deal with Stannis and Lords on the edge of revolt, why throw him a lifeline? The power LF has is that the commands the largest army that has not engaged in the War at all, why throw your support to Bolton and put the Vale in the middle of the conflict with Stannis while making the Lannisters and Tyrells enemies? It's shortsighted and risky and not something LF would do. Thus they will have to further change the story to fix it or they will have to make some leaps that don't make sense.
redline248
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AG
Yep. The show plot of putting Littlefinger in cahoots with Bolton is off the mark.
AggieSouth06
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We are exactly 1 episode deep into his plan. How about we give a little latitude to the show writers that have been given the task of keeping the primary characters' stories moving through two books worth of material in which the primary characters by-and-large meandered around doing nothing while an infinite number of new characters and stories were being introduced around them to retcon a huge inforseen plot knot (aka the "five year gap").
The Dog Lord
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quote:
We are exactly 1 episode deep into his plan. How about we give a little latitude to the show writers that have been given the task of keeping the primary characters' stories moving through two books worth of material in which the primary characters by-and-large meandered around doing nothing while an infinite number of new characters and stories were being introduced around them to retcon a huge inforseen plot knot (aka the "five year gap").
Also, I don't think that many believe LF is openly aligning himself with the Boltons. When does he ever do anything out in the open. If his plan is to truly do away with the Boltons and establish Sansa as THE Stark, he can say he did the realm a favor by eliminating a crazy house and bringing stability to the north.
Urban Ag
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AG
Keep in mind that while the HBO execs know "how it all ends" I doubt they have a very detailed road map on how to get there outside of what is already in print. They've run out of runway on Sansa and LF

Maybe the Vale is essentially going to be the Manderley element to align with Stannis (to some degree) and crush the Bolton's and Frey's??

My predictions for WoW was always that Westeros would erupt again in to utter all out wars with Stannis/Manderley/Free Folk/Blackfish/and other house of the North and Riverlands against the Bolton's and Frey's. And in the South, KL/Lannister/Tarly/Tyrell/+other loyal houses against Aegon/Connington/Golden Company/Dorne. Total war again. Could never really figure out how LF was going to use the Vale in all of it.

Regardless, always thought that the realm would bleed again, badly, just in time for The Others to smash the Wall and sweep across Westeros.
Zombie Jon Snow
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AG
seriously doubt the north of the wall beings end up wiping up Westeros....

they always seeemd a bit of a other world distraction, something to contend with, a threat of unimaginable possibility...but just something to have to attend to in the story to keep everyone busy and always worried about in the back of their minds.

but fans would not be very pleased if some other worldly beings end up wiping out all of humanity....this isn't a winter zombie story.

it will look desperate at times...like last season with the wildlings at the wall....but it will be held off in the end.

in fact thematically it makes alot of sense that the guy who holds off the biggest threat may end up ruling it all while the other pretenders to the throne have been fighting amongst themselves....which goes along with the Jon + dany theory. dany likewise is off in another world battling other threats....are the westeros armies really all that threateneing once you've conquered those lands and with the type of army you could harness from there (full of sellswords, unsullied, dothraki, and other very battle tested forces).....i wouldn't fear any knights and castles. i get the sense dany could bring an army 10x whatever westeros could muster if she succeeds over there first....plus dragons of course!!!!
OnlyForNow
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AG
Is there a discussion on ALL the leaked episodes?
Zombie Jon Snow
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quote:
Is there a discussion on ALL the leaked episodes?
there was a separate thread when those leaked...might look for that...hasn't been any discussion on here.
AggieSouth06
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How many episodes leaked? I don't want to discuss them, I just want to know when the Internet becomes spoiler-free territory.
redline248
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AG
I think 4, so one more week.
The Debt
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I think 4, so one more week.


Yep. 4. They were great to binge on.
aggie93
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AG
So you don't think this guy sits the Iron Throne in the end?

The Dog Lord
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AG
quote:
So you don't think this guy sits the Iron Throne in the end?


I could definitely see that happening. I think a likely conclusion could be the country is simply left devastated with all of the major leaders dead after defeating the Others, and Westeros simply dissolves into seven kingdoms once again.
marble rye
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If one of the characters: Jon, Tyrion, Dany, dont end up on the iron throne, Martin is a huge *******. I doubt I read the last two books bc of his dilly dallying.
Fat Bib Fortuna
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we need an "odds to it the iron throne" pickem.

Hodor: 500 to 1
Patchface: 50 to 1
Stannis: 60,000 to 1
agmatt06
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If one of the characters: Jon, Tyrion, Dany, dont end up on the iron throne, Martin is a huge *******. I doubt I read the last two books bc of his dilly dallying.

I'm not entirely convinced Martin knows or will be alive to know who ends up on the throne at the end...
AggieSouth06
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quote:
quote:
If one of the characters: Jon, Tyrion, Dany, dont end up on the iron throne, Martin is a huge *******. I doubt I read the last two books bc of his dilly dallying.

I'm not entirely convinced Martin knows or will be alive to know who ends up on the throne at the end...


It has been said time and time again that he walked the show creators through the complete arcs of each individual major character over the course of an entire week at his house. Even if he was just making s*** up as he went, I think he'll stick to what was discussed at this point.
Zombie Jon Snow
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AG
quote:
quote:
quote:
If one of the characters: Jon, Tyrion, Dany, dont end up on the iron throne, Martin is a huge *******. I doubt I read the last two books bc of his dilly dallying.

I'm not entirely convinced Martin knows or will be alive to know who ends up on the throne at the end...


It has been said time and time again that he walked the show creators through the complete arcs of each individual major character over the course of an entire week at his house. Even if he was just making s*** up as he went, I think he'll stick to what was discussed at this point.
he had it all mapped out years ago for a trilogy...it has just exploded to a heptalogy (it's not a Septology as most think)...but the main story arcs and the overall end result have never changed (he says).

redline248
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What would the White Walkers do if they won and killed all the living? I mean, after that, how do you find the motivation to get up in the morning?
Zombie Jon Snow
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quote:
What would the White Walkers do if they won and killed all the living? I mean, after that, how do you find the motivation to get up in the morning?
thats why the creatures never win in these things....they are there to serve as some ultimate scary threat...thats all.
Urban Ag
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So you don't think The Others will ever get south of the wall? It's just an ominous distraction in the background?

I think both Martin and HBO have invested way, way too much of story in the Others for it to be only that.
 
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