***** Official 2019/2020 Texas Rangers Off Season Thread *****

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Proposition Joe
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In reply to DallasAg 94 • 3:47p, 1/27/20
What if I told you that Gallo wasn't even Top 3 in Rangers RBI pre-ASB?

What if then told you that two of the Top 3 are no longer on the team?

Mazara and Pence knocked in 100 runs before the all star break last year. Now I'm certainly not sad to see them go, but unless you are replacing them with players that you project to at least be league average then you're looking at a decrease in production, not an increase.
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Proposition Joe
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In reply to Mr Gigem • 3:52p, 1/27/20
AccidentProne said:
Grapesoda2525 said:
Ranger #007 said:
Castellanos to the Reds.
It's disappointing........

I guess the plan really is to send Guzman and odor out there 150+ games.


Good luck with that I guess.

This offseason gets a D-

Rotation has been upgraded, but the infield which is the weakness of our team, isn't any better at all. The outfield is arguably weaker because pence is gone.

The offense will probably be just as bad this year or worse.
So the Rangers added 3 SPs to the rotation and have now what some are calling a top 5 rotation in all of baseball, but the offseason gets a D-??

Okay

Right now it's a C+ at best.

No one knows how Kluber will look coming off injury.

Minor is not a high K/9 guy so there's a lot of question on how he will hold up. He's been a 4+ ERA in 5 of his 8 seasons so to pencil him in as a sure thing is being optimistic.

We're still an 80ish win team, so yeah a bit disappointing considering our GM went on record to say we'd play "at the top of the free agent market".
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Grapesoda2525
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In reply to Mr Gigem • 3:57p, 1/27/20
AccidentProne said:
Grapesoda2525 said:
Ranger #007 said:
Castellanos to the Reds.
It's disappointing........

I guess the plan really is to send Guzman and odor out there 150+ games.


Good luck with that I guess.

This offseason gets a D-

Rotation has been upgraded, but the infield which is the weakness of our team, isn't any better at all. The outfield is arguably weaker because pence is gone.

The offense will probably be just as bad this year or worse.
So the Rangers added 3 SPs to the rotation and have now what some are calling a top 5 rotation in all of baseball, but the offseason gets a D-??

Okay
I wish I could share your optimism, but.....


Last year, the infield was the worst part of our team. I think most fans were hoping to see the infield addressed in some way. They needed to move at least one of the under performers and/ or sign a big stud and neither of those happened.
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investorAg83
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In reply to Proposition Joe • 4:50p, 1/27/20
AG
Quote:

You aren't "adding Gallo" to a team that is 6th in the AL Runs scored. Gallo played 70 games last year, his numbers largely make up that ranking.

Post-ASB the Rangers were 11th in runs scored, near bottom of the league. You're "adding Gallo" to that.


I think you're actually proving his point even more. If they were 6th the entire year, including the time he missed where they were awful, it's safe to assume for it to average 6th, they had to be pretty damned good when he was in the lineup. And much better than 6th.
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DallasAg 94
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In reply to Proposition Joe • 6:17p, 1/27/20
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DallasAg 94
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In reply to Proposition Joe • 6:50p, 1/27/20
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Grapesoda2525
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In reply to DallasAg 94 • 7:10p, 1/27/20
DallasAg 94 said:
Proposition Joe said:


Right now it's a C+ at best.

No one knows how Kluber will look coming off injury.

Minor is not a high K/9 guy so there's a lot of question on how he will hold up. He's been a 4+ ERA in 5 of his 8 seasons so to pencil him in as a sure thing is being optimistic.

We're still an 80ish win team, so yeah a bit disappointing considering our GM went on record to say we'd play "at the top of the free agent market".
His injury was an oblique, so I'm less concerned about his injury than I was Volq, Shelby Miller, and Drew Smyly, going into 2019.

Smyly hadn't pitched since 2016. Volq missed all of 2018 and Miller had less than 40 IP combined in 2017 & 2018.

Regarding Minor... 2019 AL ERA was 4.60. Minor has a combined 3.62 ERA for the past 3 years. 4.27AL ERA in 2018, 4.37 AL ERA in 2017. He may suck, but he is as proven as just about anyone.

Texas was 78-84 in 2019 and the 2nd half they pretty much tanked. We were 30-42. This is what we rolled with after Lynn and Minor after the ASB:
Allard went 9GS, 4.96 ERA
Jurado went 9GS, 7.67 ERA

Burke went 6GS, 7.43 ERA
Payano went 4GS, 6.00 ERA
Sampson went 3GS, 9.18 ERA
Volq went 2GS, 6.48 ERA

7-16 Combined.

Rangers are 86Ws on the low end... 92 on the top end.

I'm as disappointed as anyone in the failure to get FAs. He did exactly what I predicted he would do, and I dismissed what JD said, and I was criticized for making that prediction.
I just thought with the new stadium it would be different.

I blame the owners and not JD tho. It sounds like they were low balling guys, then coming back to the fan base and saying "we tried" with them not actually trying.

Offseason sucked tho. It seemed like conditions were right for us to get rendon and they still messed it up.
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DallasAg 94
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In reply to Grapesoda2525 • 7:42p, 1/27/20
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Proposition Joe
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In reply to investorAg83 • 8:30p, 1/27/20
Except much of that first half production came from Mazara and Pence.

1st half offense was fluke. This is a middle of the road lineup unless Odor plays like an all star and Calhoun really steps up.

Its an 80 win team that can get to 85 if everything falls right... so competing for WC2 at best.
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Schall 02
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In reply to Proposition Joe • 9:06p, 1/27/20
AG
Proposition Joe said:
Except much of that first half production came from Mazara and Pence.

1st half offense was fluke. This is a middle of the road lineup unless Odor plays like an all star and Calhoun really steps up.

Its an 80 win team that can get to 85 if everything falls right... so competing for WC2 at best.


I tend to agree, assuming no meaningful midseason acquisition.
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Proposition Joe
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10:05p, 1/27/20
Which is pretty much what it is... Try and hang around until the ASB and make a move.

Just seems like with the addition of Kluber in 2020/2021 we would have made sure not to waste one of those years with a "lets wait and see" type roster.
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Rossko
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In reply to Proposition Joe • 11:25p, 1/27/20
AG
Proposition Joe said:
Except much of that first half production came from Mazara and Pence.

1st half offense was fluke. This is a middle of the road lineup unless Odor plays like an all star and Calhoun really steps up.

Its an 80 win team that can get to 85 if everything falls right... so competing for WC2 at best.
The idea is that the upgraded pitching means less reliance on offense to win. Even if the offense takes a step back (I think full years from Solak & Calhoun would result in the opposite), the pitching can win games and we have a better Rangers season in 2020 than 2019.
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AgBQ-00
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6:30a, 1/28/20
AG
I'm really curious how the new park will play. Are we talking bandbox homer dome, or will it be a fair playing park? The dimensions do not suggest pitcher friendly to me.
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Proposition Joe
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In reply to Rossko • 7:24a, 1/28/20
Rossko said:
Proposition Joe said:
Except much of that first half production came from Mazara and Pence.

1st half offense was fluke. This is a middle of the road lineup unless Odor plays like an all star and Calhoun really steps up.

Its an 80 win team that can get to 85 if everything falls right... so competing for WC2 at best.
The idea is that the upgraded pitching means less reliance on offense to win. Even if the offense takes a step back (I think full years from Solak & Calhoun would result in the opposite), the pitching can win games and we have a better Rangers season in 2020 than 2019.

I think the problem with that is Mike Minor and Lance Lynn are still Mike Minor and Lance Lynn. It's not out of the question they both put up sub-4 ERAs this year, but it's not likely. Couple that with the unknown with Kluber and you've got a rotation that could be really good but also could be pretty mediocre. There's no arm in this rotation that is an ace that you can hand the ball to for the season and know you're in great shape.

I think it's a better Rangers team in 2020 than it was in 2019 -- but it was a 78 win team last year so that likely means "better" is still not really a contender.

The roadmap is there... Good seasons from Minor/Lynn/Kluber... Gallo stays healthy... Odor bounces back... Solak/Calhoun are serviceable.

But I think people are also forgetting that other teams in the division didn't sit pat either.

Trout and Ohtani missed a combined 84 games last year.. That's probably an added 3 wins if they stay healthy, and then you add a 5+ win player in Rendon on top of that. Their starting pitching is still going to be terrible, but they are going to be closer to a 0.500 team this year right along with us.
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wbt5845
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In reply to AgBQ-00 • 9:39a, 1/28/20
AG
AgBQ-00 said:
I'm really curious how the new park will play. Are we talking bandbox homer dome, or will it be a fair playing park? The dimensions do not suggest pitcher friendly to me.
While nothing is known for sure until the games are played, it should be much more pitcher friendly than the old stadium. The infield will be slower - the outfield is larger - and there will no wind for the outfielders to deal with. The foul territory IS smaller, so there is that.
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wbt5845
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In reply to Proposition Joe • 9:51a, 1/28/20
AG
Proposition Joe said:
Quote:
Trout and Ohtani missed a combined 84 games last year.. That's probably an added 3 wins if they stay healthy, and then you add a 5+ win player in Rendon on top of that. Their starting pitching is still going to be terrible, but they are going to be closer to a 0.500 team this year right along with us.
The Angels will be an interesting team to watch.

OF Mike Trout - 28 - $37.7M
3B Anthony Rendon - 30 - $26.07M
DH Albert Pujols - 40 (haha) - $29M
OF Justin Upton - 32 - $21M (negative WAR last year)
SS Andrelton Simmons - 30 - $15M

.... and NOT much else. Their "ace" is - Andrew Heaney? I guess?

So - the best player in the game - one of the best 3B in the game - a decent shortstop, and aging outfielder, a DH who needs a walker to get to first base and not much else? Sounds hideous.

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investorAg83
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In reply to wbt5845 • 10:06a, 1/28/20
AG
I agree with your take on their team as a whole but to say Simmons is an 'average' shortstop is a significant slight, imo. He's a wizard in the field and his bat was getting better each year until his nasty ankle sprain. He may still lack with his bat compared to others but he more than makes up for it with his glove.
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wbt5845
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In reply to investorAg83 • 10:12a, 1/28/20
AG
investorAg83 said:
I agree with your take on their team as a whole but to say Simmons is an 'average' shortstop is a significant slight, imo. He's a wizard in the field and his bat was getting better each year until his nasty ankle sprain. He may still lack with his bat compared to others but he more than makes up for it with his glove.
Fair enough - but I said "decent", not "average" - I let the couple of times I saw him last year shade my opinion. His glove is excellent.
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wbt5845
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10:18a, 1/28/20
AG
For those who criticize ownership for not throwing a quarter of a billion dollars at Rendon:

https://blogs.findlaw.com/tarnished_twenty/2010/08/nolan-ryan-group-wins-texas-rangers-bankruptcy-auction.html

The team cost $608 MM. That included a debt of $208 MM to MLB. And they still owed ARod $25 MM at that point. That's an $840 MM debt to finance. and that's not counting the big contracts they took on (Fielder, Choo, etc.) to try and sustain the championship team post 2012.

Of course, Mr. Simpson and Mr. Davis put down a lot of their personal cash to buy the team. A decade after plopping down over three quarters of a BILLION dollars, they are probably starting to show decant cash flow. I'm guessing those two men have given John Daniels some very strong direction regarding long term contracts.

In short - the Rangers, more so than other teams, have been operating with a big anchor of the extra debt that was a direct cause of that maggot Tom Hicks and the bankruptcy he put the team through in 2010.

I would guess - I have no inside knowledge - that Mr. Simpson and Mr. Davis will be thinking about selling the franchise in the next few years - seems to happen right after new stadiums are built. There's probably a general reluctance to take on a lot of debt (they're already taking on about $600 MM for the new stadium) but instead to show a positive cash flow for a good team in a nice new stadium. I know WE all just wanna win - but the billionaires didn't get rich by making bad financial choices.
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DallasAg 94
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In reply to Proposition Joe • 11:04a, 1/28/20
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DallasAg 94
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In reply to Proposition Joe • 11:25a, 1/28/20
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Proposition Joe
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11:50a, 1/28/20
You seem to be looking at best case scenario for Rangers players and worst case scenario for other teams.

It rarely works out that way.
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KT 90
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In reply to Proposition Joe • 12:53p, 1/28/20
AG
Proposition Joe said:
You seem to be looking at best case scenario for Rangers players and worst case scenario for other teams.

It rarely works out that way.

I think it is pretty clear that the rotation will be better. We mostly ran two starters and three duds out there last year. And a better and more reliable rotation will help improve the bullpen, with the pen not having to throw as many innings and being better rested

Offense? remains to be seen, but I don't think it's unreasonable to end up around the same place by the end of the season.

the place that may be a problem is defense. Can Santana handle CF? If Solak gets plenty of playing time at 1B to get his bat into the lineup, will his defense at least be adequate? Frazier is getting older, so range may be limited at 3B. Elvis is getting older too. Odor had too many errors last year. Calhoun improved his defense, but he's still adequate at best in LF. Guzman seems to be our only plus glove in the field, and he can't seem to hit enough to stay in the lineup.
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DallasAg 94
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In reply to Proposition Joe • 1:10p, 1/28/20
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wbt5845
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1:16p, 1/28/20
AG
Quote:
If you take out Minor and Lynn from 2019, the remaining SPs gave us:
Total: 808.0 IP, 482 ER
Lynn/Minor: 416.2 IP, 168 ER, 65 GS
Others 17: 391.1 IP, 314 ERd, 97 GS

That give us a 7.22 ERA in 4.0 IP/GS

What a shocking stat. That means, for relief you needed:

When Lynn/Minor pitched - 2.5 innings per game
Other 3 games - 5 innings per game

So for every five games, you needed 20 innings of relief work. If a good starter gives you 7 innings, you needed your bullpen to make up three good starters' innings every 5 games.

Another way of thinking about it - if a reliever could give you two innings every third game - you need 6-7 guys just to make up that work load. Once you take out situational work, set up and closer - every one of your bullpen guys is pitching full throttle all season long.

Just having your starters AVERAGE 6 innings per game makes your bullpen much better.
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Proposition Joe
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In reply to KT 90 • 1:20p, 1/28/20
I guess you guys are a lot more bullish on Lynn/Minor repeating their 2019 performance and Kluber being an above average starter than I am.

I think #4/5 in the rotation stands to be better, but I don't think the top end of the rotation is going to be as good as people are thinking.

Our top 3 starters rolled out a combined ERA of 4.12 last season (Lynn + Minor + either Jurardo/Sampson). It wouldn't shock me if our top 3 starters were still right around that this year.
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DallasAg 94
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1:29p, 1/28/20
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Proposition Joe
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In reply to DallasAg 94 • 1:36p, 1/28/20
DallasAg 94 said:

You likely get 12 Ws, just replacing the SP.

Except that isn't based in any kind of statistical reality whatsoever.

The 5 guys we ran out there in the #3-#5 rotation slots combined for a +0.2 WAR.

In no world is it likely that Corey Kluber (coming off injury), Jordan Lyles and Kyle Gibson produce 12 extra wins.

If EVERYTHING goes right for our starting rotation -- Lynn and Minor equal their numbers from last year, Gibson and Lyles have productive years AND Kluber pitches like an all-star -- then you might generate an extra 8 wins.
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DallasAg 94
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In reply to Proposition Joe • 1:52p, 1/28/20
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DallasAg 94
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In reply to Proposition Joe • 2:08p, 1/28/20
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Proposition Joe
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3:51p, 1/28/20
What you are missing is that many of those guys who didn't pitch that great, still got the W.

Ok so lets say everything goes right and you get 30 starts each from Kluber, Lyles and Gibson. Assume at least 10 spot starts in there by a AAAA guy as you are not going to have 5 starters pitch every game.

86 starts last year came from Jurardo (18), Sampson (15), Chavez (9), Allard (9), Smyly (9), Miller (8), Burke (6), Payano (4), Volquez (4) and Palumbo. They combined for 0.6 WAR... They were basically slightly above league replacement level.

So to net an extra 12 wins you are needing Minor and Lynn not to regress, and Kluber/Lyles/Gibson to combine for 12 WAR.

In Lyles' best season he was a 1.9 WAR player. In his career he's averaged -0.2 WAR/season.
In Gibson's best season he was a 3.8 WAR player. In his career he's averaged 1.3 WAR/season.


So even if you pencil in Kluber to bounceback fine from his injury and put up a 6 WAR season, you'd still need Lyles and Gibson to match their best seasons ever to get to 12.


So Minor again pitches near his career best...
and Lynn again pitches near his career best...
and So Kluber bounces back to pitch near his career best...
and Lyles puts up career numbers...
and Gibson puts up career numbers....


Then yeah, that would net us an extra 12 wins.


Unfortunately that's not realistic.
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Grapesoda2525
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4:47p, 1/28/20
Is anyone really satisfied with this dog crap offseason?


Unless JD makes that trade for a decent RHB. I still view it as a failure.
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DallasAg 94
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In reply to Grapesoda2525 • 7:08p, 1/28/20
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GrapevineAg
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7:29p, 1/28/20
AG
Anybody have stats to show how moving to a completely artificial surface will impact things like player health and fielding/defense? Personally, I don't like that the new park is indoors and will use fake grass - I think I'd rather sweat my balls off at the old park. Hoping there's some silver lining here.
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DallasAg 94
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In reply to Proposition Joe • 7:48p, 1/28/20
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