98Ag99Grad said:
I'm not a fan of all the 4th down attempts personally. I don't care about the percentages and metrics and all that. I think you need to have a feel for that and where you are in the game too and not just go for it because a statistician says you have a 63% chance of converting. Momentum is a real thing; it almost cost them in NE and getting stopped twice early last week got Denver rolling.
Yeah, I agree that you must have a feel for things, but go back and look at that 2nd 4th down. Dak makes a poor throw but Wilson is 3 steps ahead of the DB and I actually think that play is a TD if Dak makes that easy throw. I don't really have an issue with those two risks.
I think the stage of the game plays a factor, too. I suspect if that's a tie game in the 4th, they probably kick the FG and take the lead.