Infection_Ag11 said:
PascalsWager said:
If the Mavs are shooting 50% from 3 on 30+ attempts/night, they'll win the title 16-0. Even if Lebron and AD were traded to the Nets tomorrow, they'd still win the title.
15 of the 18 made threes were classified as either open (no defender within 4 feet) or wide open (no defender within 6 feet).
Last night was effectively a shoot around. If you give modern NBA caliber players that many open threes, a team can absolutely consistently shoot around 50%. If you look at the top 50 three point shooters in the league by percentage, they average 52.4% on threes classified as wide open. Even average three point shooters tend to be over 45% on such shots.
Unless the Clippers can figure something out on defense they're getting swept.
The Mavs shot 36.9 on open 3s and 37.0 on wide open 3s during the regular season. If the Mavs only shot (an already overperforming) 40% from 3 in the first two games they could easily be down 0-2.
Meanwhile the Clippers are somewhat underperforming in the first two games in both open and wide open shots.
Regression is looming. If it doesn't happen, they win the title by an overwhelming margin. If it does happen this series is not over by a long shot.
NBA Shooting Stats