*** Coronavirus Impact on the Entertainment Industry ***

175,673 Views | 1893 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by TCTTS
C@LAg
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Disney's CEO Bob Chapek says the release pattern of Black Widow will be a "last-minute" decision, a sentiment that won't reassure movie theater owners or others rooting for a Covid-19 rebound.

Marvel's Black Widow has been delayed multiple times due to the pandemic and is now set for May 7. Disney has not yet indicated its plans for how it will release it. Speculation has grown that the film could be a Premier Access title on Disney+, which could limit its theatrical reach.

Asked if Black Widow would stick to its release date, Chapek did not answer directly, instead emphasizing the need to embrace "flexibility" in every sense.

"Our situation and our conditions change," he said. "Just a few weeks ago, theaters in New York and Los Angeles weren't even open. Now, all of a sudden they're open, so we're waiting to see how prospective theatergoers respond to these reopenings. We're going to remain flexible. We'll make the call probably at the last minute in terms of how these films come to market, whether it's Black Widow or any other title."
Carlo4
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Electrical_Ag said:

Carlo4 said:

Last movie I saw was Uncut Gems at the Alamo Draft House. Christmas Day... 2019...

This is the longest I've gone without going into a movie theater since I was conceived....


So if there is socially distanced seating arrangements and adequate ventilation, shouldn't movies in a cinema be pretty safe? I think I would still take a wipe to wipe down the arm rests and seat, I suppose. But the theater should also be disinfecting the seats. That may be the "weak" spot, if that is a kid working minimum wage charged with that. Trying to convince myself here as well. Admittedly I am still apprehensive. And I just recovered from this awful virus.
I have zero issues going to the movies. I'm with you in that it should be pretty safe. I just haven't had the time and what's been out there hasn't been worth it.

Very much looking forward to going back!
jimscott85
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Took a much needed spring break with the kids and disconnected from both work and the industry news. Fortunately, after 10 days no earth-shattering news. Venom, as mentioned before, was expected with F9 movement. We shouldn't be surprised if tent-pole films slide around a bit to leverage theater window real estate.

On the COVID front it seems the numbers have flattened quite a bit. Is it a matter of even more efficient testing, the newer variant spread, releasing of lockdowns or folks just getting out more because they are tired of all of this? Could be all I guess. Whatever the case, Disney is holding the starting gun for everything right now. They may be overthinking things but I'm sure they don't want to "damage" the industry. No matter where you stand on COVID, I wouldn't want to be in their shoes.

Fingers crossed we see continued declines in numbers and no knee-jerk lockdowns over the coming weeks.
TCTTS
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Yessssssssss. My go-to theater, after being closed for an entire year, opens Friday. There was a time early in the pandemic when I was worried The Landmark might go under, and I'd never get to go to this theater again - my favorite theater ever, for over a decade now - but they officially survived and are finally back...

Chipotlemonger
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Awesome.

This is purely anecdotal and my own view: I have to say, I was not the biggest movie goer pre-Covid. Found myself at a theater an average of a couple or few times a year I would guess. With the openings ramping up though and Covid cases dropping, vaccines getting out, etc., I get excited about the thought of even heading to a theater and watching something on the big screen.

TLDR: While a lot of y'all are avid movie goers and really anxious to get more new movies back in theaters, there are also people out there like me that I think are going to push attendance this year. Will be interesting to see!
TCTTS
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Awesome. Love hearing that.
Counterpoint
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Chipotlemonger said:

Awesome.

This is purely anecdotal and my own view: I have to say, I was not the biggest movie goer pre-Covid. Found myself at a theater an average of a couple or few times a year I would guess. With the openings ramping up though and Covid cases dropping, vaccines getting out, etc., I get excited about the thought of even heading to a theater and watching something on the big screen.

TLDR: While a lot of y'all are avid movie goers and really anxious to get more new movies back in theaters, there are also people out there like me that I think are going to push attendance this year. Will be interesting to see!


I hope there are tons of people like you!
TCTTS
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TCTTS
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TCTTS
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YNWA_AG
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nosoupforyou
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with Black Widow on July 9, will that cause Top Gun Maverick to move back farther?

or

will they take a June slot now?

UGH....
TCTTS
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My gut says TG2 moves back, not up, but we'll see. Either way, I still think it stays in the summer. Fall is just too damn crowded already.
jimscott85
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YNWA_AG said:


Talk about a gut punch. The ONLY upside I see is the theater chains having 3 solid months to negotiate with Disney on film rental terms specific to this film. Disney is setting up quite the battle over this film and could very well be setting up a standoff.

If the majors (AMC, Regal and Cinemark) can't agree to terms that are favorable for a dual release, they may refuse to show it. On the other hand, Regal may be so thirsty for content they don't care since they've been closed for so long.

It's a slap in the face to theater chains and I'd like to see Nolan and other big players call for some sort of remedy.
double aught
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The Disney+ concurrent release is new, right?

This is getting a bit ridiculous. Theaters are opening. Some studio is going to have to commit to releasing a movie.
Malachi Constant
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The next 12 months of movie-going is NOT going to suck...
TCTTS
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As of now, the current summer slate...

05.14.21
Those Who Wish Me Dead
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3215824/
In Theaters + HBO Max

05.21.21
Spiral
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt10342730/

05.28.21
Cruella
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3228774/
In Theaters + Disney+

05.28.21
A Quiet Place Part II
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt8332922/

06.04.21
The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt7069210/
In Theaters + HBO Max

06.04.21
Samaritan
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt5500218/

06.04.21
Spirit Untamed
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt11084896/

06.11.21
In the Heights
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1321510/
In Theaters + HBO Max

06.18.21
Luca
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt12802134/
Disney+ Exclusive

06.25.21
F9
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt5433138/

06.30.21
Zola
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt5439812/

07.02.21
Peter Rabbit 2
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt8376234/

07.02.21
Top Gun: Maverick
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1745960/

07.09.21
Black Widow
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3480822/

07.09.21
The Forever Purge
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt10327252/

07.16.21
Space Jam 2
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3554046/
In Theaters + HBO Max

07.23.21
Old
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt10954652/

07.23.21
The Tomorrow War
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9777666/

07.30.21
The Green Knight
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9243804/

07.30.21
Jungle Cruise
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0870154/

08.06.21
The Suicide Squad
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt6334354/
In Theaters + HBO Max

08.13.21
BIOS
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3420504/

08.13.21
Don't Breathe 2
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt6246322/

08.13.21
Free Guy
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt6264654/

08.13.21
Respect
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt2452150/

08.20.21
The Hitman's Wife's Bodyguard
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt8385148/

08.20.21
Paw Patrol: The Movie
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt11832046/

08.27.21
The Beatles: Get Back
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9735318/

08.27.21
Candyman
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9347730/
TCTTS
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jimscott85
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double aught said:

The Disney+ concurrent release is new, right?

This is getting a bit ridiculous. Theaters are opening. Some studio is going to have to commit to releasing a movie.
Raya did the same thing. Cinemark, Harkins and Cineplex refused to show it in their theatres. I guess we will see how many operators are willing to show Black Widow.
TCTTS
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Malachi Constant
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TCTTS said:


How many new Disney+ subscriptions does it take to match the box office release?

It's probably not a difficult calculus for Disney.
TCTTS
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People will either spend $30 on it at home or $10-15 in the theater. I'll definitely be part of the latter. Either way, seems like a win-win for Disney.
fig96
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TCTTS said:


Luca moving to Disney+ tells me that the mouse saw some serious ROI on releasing Soul on Disney+.
TCTTS
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Yep. And potentially on Raya and the Last Dragon as well.
jimscott85
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I'd love to have a peak at their numbers on it. A few analysts have speculated the return wasn't stellar while others are bullish on the strait-to-streaming model. It could be both as these titles aren't exactly major blockbusters.

Making these titles available only on Disney+ helps to validate the expense for the loyal Disney fans. If you string them on long enough and provide carrots like these, they are less likely to leave. I just don't see them being able to do all content this way.

Disney has always talked about the "event" of the theatrical release. It helps build brand loyalty. The brands become rides or entire themed areas of their parks. The toys and other retail products follow much the same. That said, can a streaming only film garner as much retail influx down the line? I don't see a lot of Raya, Luca or Soul toys at the store.

The hardest thing about a complete shift in even the smaller titles is the lack of filler content throughout the year. The studios, including Disney, have done a great job over the last few years by shifting content throughout the year instead of just the typical "summer blockbuster" timeframe. If Universal, WB and Disney all pulled even just 10 to 15% of their content it's a real hurdle for the operators. You'd be bracing for some price increases at ticket booth combined with the loss of a decent number of auditoriums across the US. The margins for the operators are thin as it is.
fig96
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Quote:

I'd love to have a peak at their numbers on it. A few analysts have speculated the return wasn't stellar while others are bullish on the strait-to-streaming model. It could be both as these titles aren't exactly major blockbusters.

I am curious how they're looking at it, but I can see them justifying the math a few different ways.

As you mentioned these aren't blockbuster type films (Frozen/Incredibles/Toy Story) so we'd be looking at a fairly modest box office anyway, we can look at the midrange Disney and Pixar films and ballpark say $200 million as a conservative estimate (on a typical budget of $150 million or so).

With 100 million subscribers at 7 bucks a month, if a new feature quality animated film gets even 10% of those subscribers to stick around an extra month or two it's easily covering it's costs and then some.
C@LAg
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makes sense. you are not losing market share OR mindshare to a rvial studio while the current status quo is in effect.

but the reality is, people in many parts of America are still scared to reengage.
a year of fear and even the current/ongoing fear-porn has gotten too far into people's heads.

in lots of cities/states, teachers unions are fighting getting kids back in class. "because of the virus"
leaders are doubling down on masking (even double masking). In spite of the ridiculous of double-masking.
the hype of variants with no upticks in deaths just stokes the fear even more.

e.g., Locally, MS announced that they plan to bring 50% of their workforce back into the offices in the near term. The amount of howling , whining and cursing locally has been freaking ridiculous. People are acting too scared to go back to work And we are one of the states on the higher end of both having had COVID and % of population vaccinated. And this is from a group of people who are smart and generally young/mid-age and healthy.

It is going to take some industrial level of psychology to get large numbers back to the theaters. And that is going to take a while.
jimscott85
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C@LAg said:

makes sense. you are not losing market share OR mindshare to a rvial studio while the current status quo is in effect.

but the reality is, people in many parts of America are still scared to reengage.
a year of fear and even the current/ongoing fear-porn has gotten too far into people's heads.

in lots of cities/states, teachers unions are fighting getting kids back in class. "because of the virus"
leaders are doubling down on masking (even double masking). In spite of the ridiculous of double-masking.
the hype of variants with no upticks in deaths just stokes the fear even more.

e.g., Locally, MS announced that they plan to bring 50% of their workforce back into the offices in the near term. The amount of howling , whining and cursing locally has been freaking ridiculous. People are acting too scared to go back to work And we are one of the states on the higher end of both having had COVID and % of population vaccinated. And this is from a group of people who are smart and generally young/mid-age and healthy.

It is going to take some industrial level of psychology to get large numbers back to the theaters. And that is going to take a while.
There's some extreme hypocrisy and self-serving that comes in to play here. Don't be fooled into thinking the teachers unions care about the kids. It's an overall play to cover their base...the teachers and not the kids. It's odd how it was all about science until the science (3 ft instead of 6 ft in schools) didn't help their cause. It also goes to show that the science is "flexible" depending on the desires of the administration and who the CDC is trying to pander to.

I wouldn't use the reluctance to work in an office as an indicator either. Social media is a funny thing. "I can't come in to the office because it's dangerous, but please disregard the party I went to last night and the numerous encounters I have with people 'outside my protective bubble.'" No different than the teacher unions, employees are using the virus to get what they want.

Japan was able to hit box office weekends over the last few months that rivaled a normal blockbuster season. Once the virus is no longer a political tool or clickbait in the US, it's on to the next big crisis. I do agree there is going to be some level of impact for the remainder of 2021 and, to a lesser extend, a complete change in habits for some movie watchers. The overall impact to box office and how the operators respond will be a big focus over the next 6-12 months. Studios and theater operators have been fighting over their share of the pie for decades. Hopefully the pie can stay divided in a way to benefit both parties that won't negatively impact the business and quality of movie-going.
TCTTS
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TCTTS
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Remember when movie theaters were dead and no one was ever going to go back because everyone had apparently grown too accustomed to watching movies from their couch?
Brian Earl Spilner
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Still hilarious that someone thought this.

People have been spelling doom and gloom for theaters since Netflix.
GiveEmHellBill
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I'm doing my part: I just got out of "Nobody" (f-ing awesome movie) and have tickets to "Kong" on Wednesday.

I have seen three movies in the past year, and will be seeing two in just four days this week.
TCTTS
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Hell yeah.

I wasn't able to make it this weekend, but am going to try and see both of those in theaters in the next week or so.
TCTTS
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