Yeah, you're probably right. No doubt blockbusters and the larger theater chains are here to stay. At this point, I'm more "worried" about how the immediate scheduling plays out than anything. As for mid-budget theatrical films and independent theaters, seeing those things evaporate in such a way will truly suck, but this was inevitable. Their limbo existence and all the prognosticating is at least over now. If anything, this whole ordeal ripped off the band-aid, so to speak, and we'll get to where this was all heading anyway, just a few years quicker. With digital and all the streaming platforms to come, and day-and-date releases looking to be a very real thing sooner rather than later, by 2021/22, we'll finally be settled into whatever this new landscape is, and that will be that. I'm ready.

Question: hypothetically, which makes more money?

- A blockbuster opening in June to half-full theaters?

- or -

- Moving all of the big summer blockbusters to August-December 2020, and that same blockbuster having to compete in a highly crowded market but full theaters?

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/tv-has-stopped-production-what-happens-next-1285099

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/friends-reunion-special-delayed-at-hbo-max-1285276

TCTTS said:

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https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/friends-reunion-special-delayed-at-hbo-max-1285276

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HBO Max should try to rush to market right now, even with a limited library. Seems foolish not to attempt it when they could sell millions of subscriptions for Friends alone.

Sine poena nulla lex.

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HBO Max should try to rush to market right now, even with a limited library. Seems foolish not to attempt it when they could sell millions of subscriptions for Friends alone.

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I'm sure they'll rush as much as possible but library availability is likely the smallest issue in a launch. Tech stability, billing platforms, and consumer privacy compliance are the toughest parts to launching a service like this.

I would expect both HBO Max and Peacock to delay their releases.

I'm telling y'all, the entire 2020 release calendar is now up in the air. This scenario makes a ton of sense, should it come to fruition. Even Dune - currently releasing in December - could get bumped. Good new is, 2021 could be absolutely bonkers, in the best way. That is, assuming some of the 2021 titles don't movie to 2022...

If they really start bumping movies back a year there is no way they don't bump 2021 back as well. Calendar would just be far too crowded.

Well at some point the production delays will result in not as many movies being available so there's that.

At this point, I'm 99.9% certain Wonder Woman 1984, Top Gun: Maverick, and everything else that month moves from June.

I bet Marvel shifts everything back a slot, too. Black Widow to The Eternals November spot, The Eternals to February, etc, etc. And I could see Top Gun taking that early October spot that has been successful for big movies in the past.

And yeah, some 2021 titles move to 2022, or at least to the end of 2021. The problem is, so many of the bigger 2021 titles were well into filming already. Like, I can't see The Batman moving back a year all the way to summer 2022. So maybe it moves to November/December 2021?

This is so crazy. Literally the entire next three years of movies are likely going to shift in massive ways.

I wonder if Marvel delays cause a delay in any of the D+ shows. Or maybe some changes depending on what is revelated in Black Widow.

My current prediction:

- Every major summer movie moves to the fall/holiday '20 season.

- Theaters remain completely closed though at least June, with many of the smaller ones having to close their doors for good.

- In either July or August, the big theater chains finally open back up, but with limited product/seating. We see mid-budget movies released that missed their windows, maybe a decent number of indies, etc.

- Finally, around September/October, we're back to "normal"; full theaters, with all the major summer '20 movies scattered across October, November, and December.

This is all, of course, assuming we actually have this thing relatively under control at some point during the summer, which isn't even remotely a given at this point.

MBAR said:

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I wonder if Marvel delays cause a delay in any of the D+ shows. Or maybe some changes depending on what is revelated in Black Widow.

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I think all Marvel D+ shows move to 2021, if only because they all had to stop filming mid-production. Maybe we see The Falcon and the Winter Soldier late '20, but that'd probably be it.

https://deadline.com/2020/03/national-association-of-theatre-owners-theater-owners-coronavirus-nato-1202887045/

We'd need some great news about turning the corner by the end of March for late June to stay in play. And I don't see that happening.

TCTTS said:

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I would expect both HBO Max and Peacock to delay their releases.

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why would they delay when people are at home quarantined? Because of tech?

littlebitofhifi said:

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Quote:

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HBO Max should try to rush to market right now, even with a limited library. Seems foolish not to attempt it when they could sell millions of subscriptions for Friends alone.

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I'm sure they'll rush as much as possible but library availability is likely the smallest issue in a launch. Tech stability, billing platforms, and consumer privacy compliance are the toughest parts to launching a service like this.

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I actually meant limited library to put less stress on the tech. Not that it was a barrier. They already have the library. Obviously the tech is the limiting factor.

Tech and marketing.

So here's a Disney+ idea. Wonder if rather than a big budget movie, they'd consider releasing Hamilton early?

So just an update, and TCTTS might have some insight here as well, but it sounds like most of the VFX studios are still working on site and people are getting pretty pissed. Both LA and Vancouver studios are working regular hours and some even getting into a bit of crunch to finish their projects.

Sounds like they're a lot more concerned with keeping the Mouse and other studios happy than worrying about their employees.

Sine poena nulla lex.

This basically comes to the same conclusions. Probably not many movies, if any, this summer, but we could kick off a hell of movie-going season starting Labor Day Weekend...

https://variety.com/2020/film/news/coronavirus-mulan-fast-and-furious-a-quiet-place-release-calendar-pileup-1203535756/

Any chance this moves all of the MCU Phase 4 & 5 movies back one slot, assuming Black Widow takes The Eternals slot and The Eternals moves to 2021?

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I bet Marvel shifts everything back a slot, too. Black Widow to The Eternals November spot, The Eternals to February, etc, etc.

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As for phases 4 & 5, yeah, I think the entire MCU would have to shift at least one spot back.

fig96 said:

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So just an update, and TCTTS might have some insight here as well, but it sounds like most of the VFX studios are still working on site and people are getting pretty pissed. Both LA and Vancouver studios are working regular hours and some even getting into a bit of crunch to finish their projects.

Sounds like they're a lot more concerned with keeping the Mouse and other studios happy than worrying about their employees.

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That's crazy. So much of the rest of Hollywood is working from home right now. Shame on Disney and whoever else for continuing to allow those kinds of expectations. They should be telling the VFX studios that everything is on hold. One of my good friends just this week got booked on a new animated Netflix movie doing character designs, it starts in a week and a half, and even they're all working from home and will continue to do so. It's complicated and inconvenient, but they're figuring it out. Granted, I get that it's near impossible to do any of that VFX work from home, but still.

I wonder how TV/streaming shows will be affected by this. I imagine pretty much every show has stopped production at this point. I just assumed once things cool off later this year, production would pick back up. Then, I read the Hollywood Reporter piece linked in this thread and it seems like it's not that simple. It sounds like shows share production facilities, which have to be scheduled far in advance, and of course the actors/directors who may be involved in various projects very well may have another show to movie they committed to when it's time to ramp back up. So for a show that had to suddenly stop production, when it's time for everything to start getting back to normal, they may not have the facilities they need or the actors/directors due to scheduling conflicts due to the pause.

It sounds like a mess, and I imagine we are going to see some huge breaks for follow up seasons to tv shows (maybe years in some cases). I also wouldn't be surprised if we get some cancellations that otherwise wouldn't happen ala the writer's strike 15 or so years ago.

On the streaming side, I can see Apple TV+ getting hurt the most by this. Their whole model has been original content, which of course there isn't much of yet (likely why they renewed just about every show). I'm sure they have at least another show or two in the pipeline, but beyond that, who knows how long it will be before they have new shows to premiere or follow up seasons for shows already aired. Of course there is no back catalog for people to justify keeping a subscription. The free year subs for buying new Apple products will start to expire in September, and I'm curious how many memberships they lose given they will likely be in the middle of a glut of new content (unless this stuff blows over very fast, which I doubt). I imagine Netflix/Prime/Hulu/Disney+ will be fine due to their massive back catalogs. Same goes for Peacock and HBO Max.

TCTTS said:

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fig96 said:

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So just an update, and TCTTS might have some insight here as well, but it sounds like most of the VFX studios are still working on site and people are getting pretty pissed. Both LA and Vancouver studios are working regular hours and some even getting into a bit of crunch to finish their projects.

Sounds like they're a lot more concerned with keeping the Mouse and other studios happy than worrying about their employees.

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That's crazy. So much of the rest of Hollywood is working from home right now. Shame on Disney and whoever else for continuing to allow those kinds of expectations. They should be telling the VFX studios that everything is on hold. One of my good friends just this week got booked on a new animated Netflix movie doing character designs, it starts in a week and a half, and even they're all working from home and will continue to do so. It's complicated and inconvenient, but they're figuring it out. Granted, I get that it's near impossible to do any of that VFX work from home, but still.

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Yeah, the proprietary nature of it all makes it a challenge. The home computing power and software isn't much of an an issue anymore, but some of that work is CRAZY locked down.

Who owns the IP is also a huge question. I have a lot of friends working in game studios that are working from home with no issues, and the same would apply to your friend at Netflix. But when you're working on a film for Disney, Fox, etc...yeah.

If everyone I know gets through this alive and employed, I'll watch reruns of "That's My Mama" and "Small Wonder" for a year and have no problem with it.

Wheel of Time series on Amazon is one of those further off releases that may be affected by all of this. Did not see any recent news on a quick search about it now being delayed, guess it's too far off to tell right now!

ccaggie05 said:

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I wonder how TV/streaming shows will be affected by this. I imagine pretty much every show has stopped production at this point. I just assumed once things cool off later this year, production would pick back up. Then, I read the Hollywood Reporter piece linked in this thread and it seems like it's not that simple. It sounds like shows share production facilities, which have to be scheduled far in advance, and of course the actors/directors who may be involved in various projects very well may have another show to movie they committed to when it's time to ramp back up. So for a show that had to suddenly stop production, when it's time for everything to start getting back to normal, they may not have the facilities they need or the actors/directors due to scheduling conflicts due to the pause.

It sounds like a mess, and I imagine we are going to see some huge breaks for follow up seasons to tv shows (maybe years in some cases). I also wouldn't be surprised if we get some cancellations that otherwise wouldn't happen ala the writer's strike 15 or so years ago.

On the streaming side, I can see Apple TV+ getting hurt the most by this. Their whole model has been original content, which of course there isn't much of yet (likely why they renewed just about every show). I'm sure they have at least another show or two in the pipeline, but beyond that, who knows how long it will be before they have new shows to premiere or follow up seasons for shows already aired. Of course there is no back catalog for people to justify keeping a subscription. The free year subs for buying new Apple products will start to expire in September, and I'm curious how many memberships they lose given they will likely be in the middle of a glut of new content (unless this stuff blows over very fast, which I doubt). I imagine Netflix/Prime/Hulu/Disney+ will be fine due to their massive back catalogs. Same goes for Peacock and HBO Max.

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Yeah, it's going to suck. For instance, one of my favorite shows, Succession, was about to start filming season three, and was scheduled to hit in the fall. Now? We probably won't see it until 2021. HBO may not even have new shows to air in the fall, which would be crazy.

That said, re: the scheduling thing, for shows it's a little different than movies. Actors and writers have "first position" shows, "second position," etc. So when things pick back up, and there's a scheduling conflict, I'm sure their "first position" show still takes priority. For writers, it's even stricter. Sometimes they can't even write on a second show, even if their "first" show is on hiatus. There are all kinds of crazy rules. But yeah, I can see the stage/facilities/locations headaches being the worst.

Quote:

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That said, re: the scheduling thing, for shows it's a little different than movies. Actors and writers have "first position" shows, "second position," etc. So when things pick back up, and there's a scheduling conflict, I'm sure their "first position" show still takes priority. For writers, it's even stricter. Sometimes they can't even write on a second show, even if their "first" show is on hiatus. There are all kinds of crazy rules. But yeah, I can see the stage/facilities/locations headaches being the worst.

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All of that sounds ridiculous and awful.