Rick Dalton said:

---

I was afraid this was going to happen. I'm seeing Tenet again tonight and there's currently four other tickets sold. In an IMAX theater. I know Labor Day weekend is historically a dead zone but I saw some showings that started with zero tickets sold. That's just not sustainable for the theaters or studios. Add in the latest pandemic projections for the fall and winter and it doesn't look good. WB has been the most aggressive trying to help the theaters reopen, if they bail then everybody else will too.

---

School has started again and along with it sports and afterschol activities. There are more kids and parents out at practices the last few nights than I can recall. I wouldn't be surprised if Nolan's primary Gen-x and Millennial fan base it at a kids' practice most weekday evenings for the next several weeks.

do you think part of it might be because the movie isn't that good? I haven't seen it so not sure

maybe audiences aren't impressed? or maybe COVID

did you see it yet?

nosoupforyou said:

---

do you think part of it might be because the movie isn't that good? I haven't seen it so not sure

---

Well, after tonight Rick Dalton has already seen it at least twice. I'd say that's a good sign!

1. Most people can't go back to the theaters yet due to their local and state ordinances around coronavirus.

2. Then you take into account those that don't want to go back yet out of their own fear, which is a subset due to those barriers to entry in point 1.

You want Tenet or any new release to actually come out and possibly do good numbers? Apply pressure on those states who have ass backwards policies re: coronavirus to let them open up theaters safely. Right now, for whatever sad reason in hollywood, the appetite is not there to fight that fight.

Rick Dalton said:

---

TCTTS said:

---

It's only the Wednesday after opening weekend and, at least from my vantage, Tenet talk has almost completely dissipated online. I'm seeing next to no tweets/articles about it anymore. Without New York and LA media helping drive the conversations, it feels like it's already come and gone. I also can't help but think that if it would have been received better, it'd have legs going into this weekend. But, as is, I'm now afraid it's not even going to do half of what it did this past weekend, if even that. So... yeah. If this weekend is a disaster, I think you're right. I think everything moves to November/December, if we're lucky, but most likely everything just moves to 2021.

---

That $20 million included theaters in Canada and the early access screenings. WB said when they announced it that there was no context behind that number but if they push WW1984 and Dune that'll really say it all.

I don't want to turn this thread into a debate on the severity of the coronavirus or the accuracy of models, but most of the "experts" expect things to get worse this fall and the IHME model currently predicts 410k dead by the end of the year. That's just not an environment where more people are going to be willing to go back to the theater. My local AMC has been a ghost town and I don't see how they're making any money, especially considering that WB is taking over 60% of the gross. This'll probably be my last trip to see Tenet and I'll have seen it more times than most.

Only Disney knows for sure, but this article speculates that Mulan is doing better than Hamilton on Disney+. If that's the case and WB pushes I'd expect to see Black Widow go to Premier Access PVOD too for North America and stick with international theatrical where viable. The outrage over having to pay for Premier Access twice will be fun to watch but plenty of people will do it.

---

This article explains the potential WW84 delay a little better...

https://theplaylist.net/wb-delaying-dune-wonder-woman-1984-20200909/

Basically, if true, it's less about Tenet underperforming this past weekend, and more about giving it additional time/screens to perform in LA and NY when theaters in those two markets (hopefully) re-open in late September / early October. So that context is a little more comforting/less alarmist.

As for the Covid numbers, I could be completely off, but I just can't see deaths doubling by the end of the year, especially with the overall numbers decreasing like they are currently. I know the weather and the flu obviously have a lot to do with those projections, but treatments are getting better, front line workers and those most susceptible will likely have the vaccine by the end of the year, etc. And I just think people will become increasingly comfortable with returning to the theater in general. But who knows.

Regardless, I guess the main problem remains. Yes, Tenet will be new to NY and LA theaters come October, and thus likely do decent business, but what about the rest of the country, where it's already old news? If WB moves WW84, they need to make it crystal clear to the industry that it's not a panic move. It's to give Tenet ample time/more theaters in the country's biggest two markets, and then hopefully other studios will keep their mid-budget release calendar as-is in October, with Candyman, Death on the Nile, etc, as the above article speculates.

Ha, I wish I would have read it an hour ago.

Agree with all of that. It's a trickle down effect. One decision is made that freaks out people, makes it difficult for theater chains to plan, organize and open, etc. And then everything lingers until it feels like all the emotion has been sucked out of it.

It's never a light-switch when trying to go back on. But if there had been a bigger industry-wide push full with PSA's from studios and actors talking about safely enjoying the movies again, everything...we'd have seen restrictions loosen in key areas earlier and more general population energy towards returning to the movie.

In a wasteland scenario where the industry itself clearly has not made "find a way to work with all entities public and private to find solutions and open at all costs and get the movies back on release dates in the next 60 days" a priority, so that only adds to an extended wasteland and also doesn't make it as fun to even consider going back.

Hell I had multiple friends basically tell me the same old "I don't think I'll be in there to see Tenet any time soon" and the moment I got out, was talking about it (as much as I could without ruining it), explaining some of the crazy scenes and how it just had me so excited to be back in the theater, probably 5 have already seen it...and a couple have twice.

But here we are on the back side of Tenet. Now I'm frustrated again because the lack of releases or anything to look forward to from Hollywood, or at least rumors of more pushing. That's not the fault of the clean theater, the great experience, or Tenet itself.

And thus begins the mass exodus from October...

https://www.comingsoon.net/movies/news/1148388-nia-dacostas-candyman-release-date-delayed-to-2021

Glad I didn't restart my A-List yet....

Sine poena nulla lex.

I'm afraid you're right.

And if so, WB might as well go ahead and release Tenet to streaming/digital so I can finally watch it...

I understand what y'all are saying, but how is it that these other global markets have opened when they also know the flu season is coming? I don't think it's going to be that apocalyptic in the sense of Hollywood fully punting on 2020.

Sine poena nulla lex.

I was wondering why imdb was listing New Mutants as the #1 movie for last weekend.....

This is looking grim...

Agreed. This whole thing sucks, and I just don't see the theatrical experience/conditions getting better until spring or so. Which could very well mean we're right back to closings and bankruptcies, if it's going to take that long.

Sine poena nulla lex.

Sine poena nulla lex.

If it hadn't already released worldwide, that would be my guess. A lot of it depends on how important NY and LA are to WB. In a week or two, would they take Tenet out of theaters, only to re-release it in the same markets + NY and LA at some point next year? How many more people would show up to the domestic markets where it's already payed, who didn't show up this go around? Enough to make a difference? Foreign markets seem to be doing fairly well, so would it be worth releasing in those same markets to basically the same audiences again? Or does WB just say screw it and release it to digital/streaming in the next few weeks? I have absolutely no idea, but I'd be willing to bet that by this time next week we'll have our answer.

C@LAg said:

---

Fauci was responding to a question from actress Jennifer Garner about when Americans can expect to return to theaters during an interview posted to Garner's Instagram page on Thursday.

"I think it's going to be a combination of a vaccine that has been around for almost a year and good public-health measures," Fauci said. "I would think by the time we get to the end of 2021 maybe even the middle of 2021 (if things go really well)."

Jump to 35:20

https://www.instagram.com/tv/CE7tWzinTI8/

---

I haven't watched the full video yet, but from what I understand, based on some quick commentary and headlines I saw, Fauci was referring to returning to complete normalcy in theaters - i.e. no masks/worry whatsoever - not simply a "return to theaters." In other words, theaters could operate close to full capacity well before then, with masks, as more and more people get the vaccine, the numbers drop, and everyone gets increasingly comfortable with the idea. It just won't be exactly like it used to be until some point in the second half of next year. I could be wrong, though.

Man, that's an abysmal second weekend number, and I just can't see NY or LA making that much of a difference when (or if) they do fully open.

This is the worst thing to ever happen to the film industry.