*** Coronavirus Impact on the Entertainment Industry ***
162,914 Views |
1893 Replies |
Last: 2 yr ago by TCTTS
......and Morbius has moved to October 8th.
I can actually see the logic behind this. A comic book movie about a man who turns into a vampire coming out a few weeks before Halloween seems to make some sense.
I can actually see the logic behind this. A comic book movie about a man who turns into a vampire coming out a few weeks before Halloween seems to make some sense.
It absolutely does. However...GiveEmHellBill said:
......and Morbius has moved to October 8th.
I can actually see the logic behind this. A comic book movie about a man who turns into a vampire coming out a few weeks before Halloween seems to make some sense.
See one post above (No Time to Die). This will be a cat and mouse game until things settle in. Morbius became the 2nd fiddle as soon as No Time to Die moved. Studios don't want to risk the prospect of the "return to theaters" being lackluster and the bigger blockbuster gobbling up all of the upside on a tier two movie.fig96 said:It absolutely does. However...GiveEmHellBill said:
......and Morbius has moved to October 8th.
I can actually see the logic behind this. A comic book movie about a man who turns into a vampire coming out a few weeks before Halloween seems to make some sense.
The franchise releases will get 1st billing and everything else is at risk. The biggest question for me is this: Who's first to take the plunge? Who's willing to stick it out and leave their April, May, June, etc. release dates and test the waters?
The first film that realizes anything close to half of it's "pre-COVID" expectations will be deemed the winner. At that point, customer confidence will hopefully still be on the upswing.
For sure, totally with you.
I'm also intrigued to see if we see any releases shift back the other way if any of the films released in that April to late summer window have some success. A film might be able to capitalize if there's money to be made and no great movies to go see.
I'm also intrigued to see if we see any releases shift back the other way if any of the films released in that April to late summer window have some success. A film might be able to capitalize if there's money to be made and no great movies to go see.
How long has No Time to Die been delayed?YNWA_AG said:
I was about to buy tickets for opening day on my birthday last year, and at that point after trying for a while we were starting to give up on the idea of having children.
By the time it releases in theaters, we will have a 4 month old and calling the mother in law to come visit so we can go see it
For this industry, it would be the ultimate juice in the arm. Unless you saw COVID fall flat by the end of February (as in cases in the few thousands and deaths in the few hundreds), I don't see any major blockbusters making such a move. Generally speaking, once the slate is set, the marketing spend, interviews, merchandising tie-ins, etc. are all queued up based on the release date. It's easier to push out than bring something forward just because of the legwork that goes into putting a film name up in lights to make sure you generate maximum box office.fig96 said:
For sure, totally with you.
I'm also intrigued to see if we see any releases shift back the other way if any of the films released in that April to late summer window have some success. A film might be able to capitalize if there's money to be made and no great movies to go see.
All that said, we're in uncharted territory. If we did, in fact, see COVID fall flat I could see studios scrambling to plug a major release back into the summer pipeline. And as long as there's some comparable metrics indicating that the box could/would be even better for additional releases down the road, there would be a collective effort to get movies back into the theaters to the extend that box office is maximized as much as possible.
An analyst for B Riley recently published some insight after discussing with management of the theater chain. Grabbing the actual coverage isn't easy (you have to pay for actual coverage notes), but here's a run-down on the Hollywood Reporter:
B Riley Coverage
The short story is this. It will be multiple years before box office returns to a "pre-COVID state." But as long as studios recognize the upside of the theatrical window, there is no expectation it won't "return." Just a matter of if, not when.
Thanks, this is exactly what I was assuming (I'm a designer and spent a while on the marketing side so I'm familiar with product launch/events/etc.).Quote:
For this industry, it would be the ultimate juice in the arm. Unless you saw COVID fall flat by the end of February (as in cases in the few thousands and deaths in the few hundreds), I don't see any major blockbusters making such a move. Generally speaking, once the slate is set, the marketing spend, interviews, merchandising tie-ins, etc. are all queued up based on the release date. It's easier to push out than bring something forward just because of the legwork that goes into putting a film name up in lights to make sure you generate maximum box office.
I feel like a more mid level action picture sort of release (first John Wick, A Quiet Place, etc.) that doesn't have a huge marketing push behind it would be a prime candidate to drop into one of those spots. Wouldn't have as many marketing tie ins to worry about and would be a perfect movie for starved audiences.
at this rate, they will have announced the next Bond and started filming before NTTD is ever released.
fig96 said:How long has No Time to Die been delayed?YNWA_AG said:
I was about to buy tickets for opening day on my birthday last year, and at that point after trying for a while we were starting to give up on the idea of having children.
By the time it releases in theaters, we will have a 4 month old and calling the mother in law to come visit so we can go see it
That's wild! And...congratulations!
Thanks, we're pretty excited. It's either way easier or way harder during quarantining, haven't quite decided yet
https://www.google.com/amp/s/slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/01/amc-stock-reddit-movie-theaters-memes.amp
It feels pretty cool to have had a hand in saving movie theaters.
It feels pretty cool to have had a hand in saving movie theaters.
Anticipating Black Widow and F9 to be pushed back again.
https://variety.com/2021/film/news/black-widow-f9-release-dates-summer-1234905246/
https://variety.com/2021/film/news/black-widow-f9-release-dates-summer-1234905246/
Yeah, May ain't happening. I'm still thinking July/August is when theater-going *starts* to return to some sense of normalcy.
Thought about this thread when my wife went to see Toby Mac last week at the Cedar Park Center ( a pretty big place, Motley played there on last tour). She said she was going and I did a double take, as I stay on top of music industry stuff and know that major tours continue to get pushed out, and many bands not even setting dates yet. Yet this dude is in the middle of a 10 date tour, with dates lined out for the summer as well.
She said there were like 2,000 people there, all socially distance and mask mandatory. Not ideal with the masks, but she took our son and he liked the fact that since he's a kid, he could see better, no one in front of him.
I say good for him, let the people decide if they want to come. And what's more, he had 2 opening bands and a full touring stage with pro lighting, etc. So lots of musicians, roadies and crew getting money coming in again.
She said there were like 2,000 people there, all socially distance and mask mandatory. Not ideal with the masks, but she took our son and he liked the fact that since he's a kid, he could see better, no one in front of him.
I say good for him, let the people decide if they want to come. And what's more, he had 2 opening bands and a full touring stage with pro lighting, etc. So lots of musicians, roadies and crew getting money coming in again.
I'm somewhat optimistic that the studios are holding out hope for a perfect storm in the recovery from the pandemic.
Whether you believe COVID-19 to be a legitimate concern in the long term, the status of infections and deaths are the primary roadblock to the movie industry getting back up and running. If the infection decline stays consistent we could be below 20,000 daily cases across the US by the end of March. For reference, we haven't been consistently below 20,000 daily cases since this began in March 2020....exactly 1 year.
By that time you should have ALL of the most vulnerable vaccinated and an infection rate that's manageable. But that's just my opinion. I think a few things would put the studios in the green for running movies in a more standard theatrical release format:
I can't say the studios won't push out additional content into later in 2021, but the stars could align by mid-spring to point toward a summer slate worth returning to. Whatever films still remain on the calendar when the flood gates open will reap the rewards.
- The trailing 7 day average new cases is falling by an average of about 3% per day. This is an amazing trend, although the exact cause of the decline isn't exactly obvious. I tend to believe it's a combination of the post-holiday wind-down combined with the immunity from both the virus spread and the vaccine.
- The vaccine roll-out is averaging 1.6M shots per day.
Whether you believe COVID-19 to be a legitimate concern in the long term, the status of infections and deaths are the primary roadblock to the movie industry getting back up and running. If the infection decline stays consistent we could be below 20,000 daily cases across the US by the end of March. For reference, we haven't been consistently below 20,000 daily cases since this began in March 2020....exactly 1 year.
By that time you should have ALL of the most vulnerable vaccinated and an infection rate that's manageable. But that's just my opinion. I think a few things would put the studios in the green for running movies in a more standard theatrical release format:
- Continued decline even as jurisdictions remove restrictions on capacities.
- NY and CA give up on their methodology. Those lockdowns are a key barrier to the studios releasing their content. Without that attendance, the studios clearly don't feel like they pull in enough $ to maximize box office.
I can't say the studios won't push out additional content into later in 2021, but the stars could align by mid-spring to point toward a summer slate worth returning to. Whatever films still remain on the calendar when the flood gates open will reap the rewards.
WW84 is the worst movie I have ever seen... wish I didn't waste time watching it
Good info.
Fauci said this week that he's fairly positive the vaccine will start to be available to the general public in April, so your prediction sounds on track in that regard. And then Biden said this week that everyone who wants a vaccine should have one by July. Factoring all of that, IMO, I still think May is unlikely to see theaters fully reopened - Black Widow and F9 will almost assuredly move - and June is a probably toss up. But I think by July we could start to see blockbusters in theaters again, NY and LA theaters fully reopened, etc.
That said, I have it on good authority that Top Gun: Maverick is likely moving again, off its July 2 spot. Paramount isn't ready to make the call just yet, but they're giving it serious consideration. In other words, studios still aren't confident in early July, as those movies need to start advertising by April or so, but we'll see. If it moves, hopefully it only moves back a month or two.
Regardless, in my mind, Labor Day weekend is when things will be back to normal (or, the new normal, rather), theater-wise, with July and August seeing a decent number of quality titles in the lead up. And again, maybe even June too, if we're lucky.
Fauci said this week that he's fairly positive the vaccine will start to be available to the general public in April, so your prediction sounds on track in that regard. And then Biden said this week that everyone who wants a vaccine should have one by July. Factoring all of that, IMO, I still think May is unlikely to see theaters fully reopened - Black Widow and F9 will almost assuredly move - and June is a probably toss up. But I think by July we could start to see blockbusters in theaters again, NY and LA theaters fully reopened, etc.
That said, I have it on good authority that Top Gun: Maverick is likely moving again, off its July 2 spot. Paramount isn't ready to make the call just yet, but they're giving it serious consideration. In other words, studios still aren't confident in early July, as those movies need to start advertising by April or so, but we'll see. If it moves, hopefully it only moves back a month or two.
Regardless, in my mind, Labor Day weekend is when things will be back to normal (or, the new normal, rather), theater-wise, with July and August seeing a decent number of quality titles in the lead up. And again, maybe even June too, if we're lucky.
Oh please keep Maverick in July.. save the Movies Top Gun!! That movie is so universally exciting to many demographics that it could usher back the crowds - USA, USA!!
My thought - and fear - is that the pandemic exposed that people don't care about the movies and we never get to the theater attendance levels we were at in the past
My thought - and fear - is that the pandemic exposed that people don't care about the movies and we never get to the theater attendance levels we were at in the past
Studios need to release movies ASAP. In the current environment there is a good chance something from an actor's or director's past will surface and get him blacklisted or some point in the movie is on the wrong side of the next social justice du jour.
nosoupforyou said:
My thought - and fear - is that the pandemic exposed that people don't care about the movies and we never get to the theater attendance levels we were at in the past
I may be in the minority, but it had already changed for me pre-pandemic. Some movies must be seen on a big screen, some should (are better) on a big screen, and others are fine for a home screen. A Jurrasic Park / Top Gun is a must, 1917 is a should, but any rom-com is fine for at home viewing.
Electrical_Ag said:nosoupforyou said:
My thought - and fear - is that the pandemic exposed that people don't care about the movies and we never get to the theater attendance levels we were at in the past
I may be in the minority, but it had already changed for me pre-pandemic. Some movies must be seen on a big screen, some should (are better) on a big screen, and others are fine for a home screen. A Jurrasic Park / Top Gun is a must, 1917 is a should, but any rom-com is fine for at home viewing.
This is exactly my thought.. Star Wars and Mission Impossible, Bond films with the kids added too.. but big budget and special effects are key.. otherwise will just see it later
Except that, for many, rom-coms are perfect date night movies where couples are trying to get away from the house for one evening or a group of women are trying to have a girl's night out.Electrical_Ag said:nosoupforyou said:
My thought - and fear - is that the pandemic exposed that people don't care about the movies and we never get to the theater attendance levels we were at in the past
I may be in the minority, but it had already changed for me pre-pandemic. Some movies must be seen on a big screen, some should (are better) on a big screen, and others are fine for a home screen. A Jurrasic Park / Top Gun is a must, 1917 is a should, but any rom-com is fine for at home viewing.
Yeah, I agree. The logic certainly doesn't, and wasn't meant, to cover all situations. Another good example are movies which have such great soundtracks / scores that they are better in a theater-quality system. Or vivid imagery. Pixar movies, for example. I only meant to imply the differences in my mind.
The highest grossing movie in history for Japan was a Japanese film "Demon Slayer." It did better than Titanic or Frozen. Fun fact...it was released in October 2020.
Of course you can't exactly take a Japanese movie in Japan and extrapolate that to say the domestic box office will make a full return. However, I think the opposite would be true. The fact that a movie in ANY country could post a record of any kind in 2020 tells me not to count out the industry.
There are two big drivers I can't help but think will help drive the a return, if there is one, to consistent box office performance. The first is the avid movie goer. They watch dozens of movies every year. If their love of the theatrical experience hasn't faded, it's a good sign. The second is "a movie" as a key option for entertainment. It's maintained its success as a reasonably priced option for entertainment. If mom and dad don't ditch the movies as an option for date night, we're in good shape.
Of course you can't exactly take a Japanese movie in Japan and extrapolate that to say the domestic box office will make a full return. However, I think the opposite would be true. The fact that a movie in ANY country could post a record of any kind in 2020 tells me not to count out the industry.
There are two big drivers I can't help but think will help drive the a return, if there is one, to consistent box office performance. The first is the avid movie goer. They watch dozens of movies every year. If their love of the theatrical experience hasn't faded, it's a good sign. The second is "a movie" as a key option for entertainment. It's maintained its success as a reasonably priced option for entertainment. If mom and dad don't ditch the movies as an option for date night, we're in good shape.
TCTTS
Joined:
Mar 10, 2004
Posts:
52,902
How long do you want to ignore this user?
we really have not had anything like this that has impacted the psyche of the general public in a long time, with 9/11 being the last big thing that I think is relevant.
I do not think pre-COVID numbers are coming back for a long time. I am tempted to even throw in a "if ever" due to the rise and proliferation of all the streaming services. But that is most definitely a TBD.
That said, over the last year, lots of people subscribed to the many streaming services. They have lots of content there, and some will even have day/date to blockbusters, or a very shortened window for others.
Many others (like myself) upgraded our TVs to larger size/high def, and ungraded our sound systems as well.
I think the urge to go out and see movies' in a crowd will be much less than it was pre-covid for many people, across age groups. I was already winding down the number of movies I saw in the theater pre-covid, and will be hard-pressed to find ones going forward that I want to see in a corwd as opposed to at home, where I have absolute control over the sound, picture quality, bathroom breaks, and no crying children.
I do not think pre-COVID numbers are coming back for a long time. I am tempted to even throw in a "if ever" due to the rise and proliferation of all the streaming services. But that is most definitely a TBD.
That said, over the last year, lots of people subscribed to the many streaming services. They have lots of content there, and some will even have day/date to blockbusters, or a very shortened window for others.
Many others (like myself) upgraded our TVs to larger size/high def, and ungraded our sound systems as well.
I think the urge to go out and see movies' in a crowd will be much less than it was pre-covid for many people, across age groups. I was already winding down the number of movies I saw in the theater pre-covid, and will be hard-pressed to find ones going forward that I want to see in a corwd as opposed to at home, where I have absolute control over the sound, picture quality, bathroom breaks, and no crying children.
Doesn't matter how nice your personal sound system is, it's not the same as going to the theater.
ridiculous. you always get the audio sweet spot. You can control teh mix however your prefer. You can crank the volume and utilize both subwoofers and get the booming feel if you want it.PatAg said:
Doesn't matter how nice your personal sound system is, it's not the same as going to the theater.
It's not the technical aspect, it's the feel.
I don't care how good your system is, it can't replicate the feel of "A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away...." then that first John Williams hit in a darkened theater.
I don't care how good your system is, it can't replicate the feel of "A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away...." then that first John Williams hit in a darkened theater.
A little cherry picking. Demon Slayer is a cultural phenomenon over there. The second highest grossing movie of 2020 would have barely squeaked into 2019 top 10.
If that level of a movie is needed to resurrect the movie theater experience in the US, theaters may be in big trouble.
If that level of a movie is needed to resurrect the movie theater experience in the US, theaters may be in big trouble.
Fenrir said:
A little cherry picking. Demon Slayer is a cultural phenomenon over there. The second highest grossing movie of 2020 would have barely squeaked into 2019 top 10.
If that level of a movie is needed to resurrect the movie theater experience in the US, theaters may be in big trouble.
Is Demon Slayer playing in the US? Is this a good movie? Parasite was sooooo bad so I'm skeptical
Not cherry picking in the context of my post. Yes, it's a cultural one-off. My point is that, if there is appetite, our willingness to gather in crowds may not be entirely broken.Fenrir said:
A little cherry picking. Demon Slayer is a cultural phenomenon over there. The second highest grossing movie of 2020 would have barely squeaked into 2019 top 10.
If that level of a movie is needed to resurrect the movie theater experience in the US, theaters may be in big trouble.
I will admit that such a unique film in Japan, with NO serious competition from Hollywood Blockbusters, isn't a beacon of light. The full impact of the pandemic won't be known until late 2022 or maybe even 2023.
Is there a big "backlog" of movies the studios have ready to go now (or by mid year)? So many movies have been delayed but while work was slowed they definitely haven't stopped making the movies either.
Featured Stories
See All
9:11
11h ago
16k
42:45
19h ago
4.0k
The Good Ol' Days: Reminiscing on Texas A&M's magical spring of '89
by David Sandhop
35:53
22h ago
3.6k