Some interesting speculation on
Bill Simmons' latest podcast today with producer Jason Blum, which is that the biggest change to eventually come out of all of this, distribution-wise, likely won't be more day-and-date releases (when a movie is released in theaters and on digital the same day) or digital-only releases, but there might instead be no more windows/gaps between when a movie is in theaters and when it hits digital. Not only that, but your average, non-blockbuster movie might only be in theaters exclusively for a couple of weeks, then would go digital immediately after. So your average releases could look something like this...
Weeks 1 & 2 = theaters only
Weeks 3 & 4 = digital purchase only
Weeks 5 to indefinitely = digital purchase + digital rental/Blu-ray
That said, this likely wouldn't be the case for indies or blockbusters. Many indies rely on platformed, limited theatrical releases to build word-of-mouth as a form of advertising, and blockbusters would definitely still remain in theaters only for as long as they do now, up to a couple months or so. However, theoretically, as soon as indies and blockbusters finished their theatrical runs, they would then conceivably move straight to the weeks 3/4/5 model above, with no window/gap after their theatrical release.
In other words - more movies rotated in and out of theaters more often, save for blockbusters, and hopefully no more windows/gaps where we
can't see a movie once it's been released to the public. That model has never made sense to me. If a movie is released to the public in theaters, from then on out, there should never be a gap where I
can't watch that movie / I have to wait for it to hit streaming, long after it's faded from theaters. Thankfully, if this model comes to fruition, that would no longer be the case.
Another point that Blum brought up was that most moves have TWO marketing campaigns; the theatrical advertising campaign and then the digital advertising campaign, months later. But under this new model, for your average movie, there would only need to be ONE marketing campaign, and trailers/commercials/posters/etc could just list three dates - 1) theatrical, 2) digital purchase, 3) digital rental/Blu-ray. Which would mean studios could save a ton in advertising.
Anyway, I'm not saying this is how it's going to be right when movies finally come back, and the model will likely ultimately be somewhat different from the one I've outlined above, but it sounds like this general direction is where we can expect distribution to hopefully move over the next couple of years or so.