*** Coronavirus Impact on the Entertainment Industry ***

162,971 Views | 1893 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by TCTTS
jimscott85
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So I thought I would bring up a fun caveat to this whole return to "normal" as I'm beginning to wonder how much it's playing into the studio decisions. The topic: Virtual Print Fees.

Around the late 90s, the first digital projector was demonstrated to show the benefits of putting a movie on digital media instead of the old 35MM film "tape". It was quickly adopted as the next generation of media because of its versatility. It was also widely praised by studios because it would reduce distribution costs (you can replicate and ship digital media much faster and cheaper than the 35MM). However, the theater chains expressed concern over a complete replacement of projection equipment at a much higher cost than the 35MM projectors.

Enter the Virtual Print Fee ("VPF"). Studios pay a VPF to projector owners, which are usually third parties that lease the projectors to the theater chains. The VPF is a flat fee paid "per print". A print is generally equivalent to one auditorium. So, if a movie opens on 3,000 screens, then the VPF is generally paid at 3,000 x the VPF. The original VPF model was designed to be equivalent to the old cost of replicating and delivering the film to the theater chain locations. The VPFs were scheduled to be paid over 10-12 years based on a cost recoupment model where the chains essentially came out even or slightly ahead after paying off the projector (about 10 years from the original inception, or 2020/21).

Today, the VPF is an inherent hurdle to margin on a movie. If a studio agrees to show a movie on 1,000 screens but each of those screens don't generate enough attendance to cover the VPFs, they are operating at a loss on the movie.

Just something to think about as studios speculate on the return to blockbuster product. There is a flat fee that will impact the studios likely through 2021 and figures into the models used to determine whether a film is profitable.
TCTTS
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TCTTS
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Super interesting and informative. Love the insight. Thanks for sharing.
Brian Earl Spilner
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I doubled my position in AMC stock last week, mostly for meme purposes and the possibility of another short squeeze, but I felt good about it because I was hoping the reopenings would really start kicking things off here.

Signs are looking good. And California theme parks are reopening in April as well.

Really hope this is the start of the turnaround, and not just for the entertainment industry.
jimscott85
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Proceed with caution. AMC is the only chain trading above its price target. In fact, it's trading at up to 2 times the multiples for other chains, IMAX, etc. AMC was significantly diluted over the last few months when some convertible notes were converted and the sale of additional shares to raise capital. Additional shares could be issued over the course of the next few months, or at least they've been authorized just in case. Plus you have the overhang of the Wanda preferred stock which significantly outweighs the voting rights of the common stock outstanding.
MBAR
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With the vaccine rollout kicking into high gear it finally seems like we're in the middle nd portion of this entire **** show.
Counterpoint
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I know the opposite of this usually gets said online, but please post more. I always learn something really interesting when you post!
YNWA_AG
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TCTTS
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Hallelujah.

Movie theaters here will have been closed for a entire year, which is still so crazy to comprehend...

TCTTS
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Brian Earl Spilner
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Holy crap, that is awesome.
TCTTS
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Yes. And?

"just south of town" makes them sound super close. When, in reality, for most people in LA those theaters were a 45 minute to an hour drive or so away, if not longer in many cases.

Point is, LA County - what I assume is the biggest movie-going county in the country - hasn't been open for a year, which has been one of the main roadblocks to seeing certain blockbusters release in the rest of the country. That roadblock will no longer exist after this weekend, with capacity only (hopefully) increasing from here on out.
jimscott85
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Very cool. When she starting talking about the "back room", it didn't go the way I thought it would.
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double aught
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We get it man. No point in trying to pick a fight.
TCTTS
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Literally no here one is praising him. I'm simply happy theaters are finally open. That doesn't mean I don't think they should have been opened sooner, or that Newsom doesn't suck (for the record, I can't stand him either).

Chill.

We all know you have an incessant need to turn sh*t like this into a platform to voice your political opinions. And when you're called out, you say you never do it, and that we're overreacting, yet here we are again. We get it. Can we not just celebrate this as a positive that things are finally getting back to normal?
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TCTTS
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Who said we don't think that way? You're making all kinds of assumptions here. "Newsom announces" does not equal praise, just like posting a link to that story doesn't mean there aren't PLENTY of us who don't like the way things have been run. We just don't choose to post those opinions on entertainment message board. Never mind the very real recall effort Newsom is facing, or the many, many people in this state who *do* want things open and make their voices known continually. What the hell else can be done? Outside of staging an insurrection on the state capitol, since those seem to be so en vogue now, what are you suggesting we do? What do you expect expressing such an opinion on this board will accomplish?
jimscott85
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So what are the next steps in the recovery of the business? There are a few components I think we need to see:

  • Impact of reopening: The worst thing that could happen is a "spike" over the next couple weeks. It feels like we're crossing the threshold where a) previous infections plus b) vaccinations are sufficient to mute any major change in the spread of COVID. I HOPE we see continued declines even in the face of the 5 largest states being/staying opened.
  • REGAL CINEMAS: We need them open in the next 2-4 weeks...or at least a sign they are prepared to open. Black Widow will move on down the road if it can't get the maximum number of screens. Many theaters are going to operate with some capacity limitations even as things reopen. Seat spacing will still be built into ticketing systems for the time being, so they need to know they can run at maximum to make up for any capacity restrictions still in place. And don't be surprised if the first NEW films in the coming months take up half of a theater screens or more just to maximize attendance for those films.
  • Positive metrics: Starting with Universal's Nobody and WB's Godzilla vs Kong, we need good numbers, and I hope the data "scientists" are prepared for the job. Studios will be a bit reserved to proceed to major blockbusters if the numbers don't feel right on these. I know, these aren't true "Blockbusters", but they fall into categories that can easily be prepared to benchmark films to determine appetite.

Black Widow still seems to be just far enough out to work. Two months of good news will put it in perfect position to reap some reward. Hell, if you're an absolute optimist, you could argue that Black Widow could perform better in theaters than if the pandemic had never happened. Is it a perfect storm? A moviegoing fanbase that needs something new + relatively ZERO major competition = a potential for a long, sustained run at the box office. It's followed by Peter Rabbit 2, which won't have a lot of crossover competition and could serve to further maximize attendance when the chains need it the most.
tysker
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Makes you wonder if the Quiet Place 2 and Black Widow 'people' knew something or started to push the right threads in the right government offices. Good stuff regardless.
Bunk Moreland
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tysker said:

Makes you wonder if the Quiet Place 2 and Black Widow 'people' knew something or started to push the right threads in the right government offices. Good stuff regardless.

Vaccine supply fixing to go through the roof + Texas starting the dominoes for states to free up requirements and fully re-open. They saw the momentum. That's what led to the CDC rushing to release the "if you got the vaccine already" guidelines, and ultimately NY and Cali issuing opening up guidance. Once the dominoes begin, the 2 largest liberal states can't continue to hold their citizens hostage when we've had an entire year of data to show how lockdowns don't work.
TCTTS
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Yeah, against all odds, I really do think Black Widow opens on the 7th, and maybe even opens relatively big. That's exactly 60 days from now, and even if there is a minor "spike" in cases between now and then, so many more millions will have been vaccinated that any potential spike will have likely dissolved into a complete plummet. Either way, great analysis, as always.
TCTTS
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Good points. All things considered, no matter what happens, I don't think the momentum can slow now.
fig96
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Is there a minimum number of screens for a big tentpole action film like Black Widow to open on?
Brian Earl Spilner
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Light at the end of the tunnel. Hallelujer!

I can smell the popcorn already.
jimscott85
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fig96 said:

Is there a minimum number of screens for a big tentpole action film like Black Widow to open on?
The short answer? Who knows?

Endgame opened in 4,662 theatres. What isn't always clear is the number of screens a movie hits.

There were approximately 42,000 screens in the US near the end of 2019 in 5,800 theaters. Of note, even the biggest blockbuster couldn't possibly hit 5,800 theaters because of the smaller markets. My home town single screen might not show a movie like Endgame until long after the release date when they can get a more favorable rental rate, if it ever does at all. Plus, with a single screen, they simply can't catch all the movies.

Let's say, for arguments sake, the opening of Endgame hit 1/2 of the available screens across the US on opening weekend...around 21,000 screens on the 4,662 theatres. Those screens yielded 16 million viewers across just the Thursday/Friday opening. These figures are for "perspective" only and not intended to be exact.

The difference for Black Widow or some of the other openings coming up is the lack of competition. Endgame opened up against the leftovers of Captain Marvel, Us, Dumbo, Shazam.... Not fantastic movies, but there was still some customer appeal. Black Widow could theoretically open to 28,000 screens, though not likely, to make up for capacity issues. Why not likely? It goes back to the VPFs.

The studios only have to pay for VPFs they agree to. If they authorize 20,000 screens to play, that's all they have to pay for. If the theaters want more screens played, they pay the VPFs. With the emergence of presales, that battle could be fought up to opening day and theaters may be willing to eat the VPFs to gain some additional screens. The alternative is to bank on weekday showings and the following weekends to be stronger with minimal follow-up content.

It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. The data coming out of Japan, China (though reliability of data is a question), and other countries indicates there's appetite. I'm at least hopeful.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Quote:

Captain Marvel, Us, Dumbo, Shazam.... Not fantastic movies
Beg to differ.
GiveEmHellBill
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Two weekends ago, Tom and Jerry opened on 2.475 screens to $14 million. The biggest opening since Tenet. And that was with it also streaming on HBO Max that very day.

Last weekend, Disney's Raya and the Last Dragon opened on 2,000 screens to $8 million. A lower total, but this was also when the movie streamed on Disney+ for their premium price and Disney+ has 100 million subscribers.

There is definitely an upward trend in people going to the movies. In 60 days, I think that a movie like Black Widow could conceivably open to upwards of $50 million, seeing as how it's a Marvel movie that has a good deal of anticipation AND it's NOT going to available to stream anywhere else on that date. If you want to see Black Widow on May 7th, you have to buy a ticket.

Any other time, a $50 million opening weekend for a Marvel movie would be considered a huge failure. Right now? It would be the biggest success story in Hollywood and be a sign of great things to come.
fig96
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Super interesting stuff, thanks!
Brian Earl Spilner
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It feels so weird looking forward to going to movies in the theater again. I feel like it's been ages since Tenet.

The last movie I watched in theaters pre-covid was Bad Boys For Life in January 2020.

Since then, I saw a grand total of 2 movies in theaters -- Empire Strikes Back, and Tenet.

It might not sound crazy to some, but for someone like me, who is an avid movie-goer, to have seen two movies in theaters in a calendar year is absolutely insane.
BoydCrowder13
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

It feels so weird looking forward to going to movies in the theater again. I feel like it's been ages since Tenet.

The last movie I watched in theaters pre-covid was Bad Boys For Life in January 2020.

Since then, I saw a grand total of 2 movies in theaters -- Empire Strikes Back, and Tenet.

It might not sound crazy to some, but for someone like me, who is an avid movie-goer, to have seen two movies in theaters in a calendar year is absolutely insane.


Amen. I have tried to go when possible. Tenet, Die Hard, Empire, and even rented out a theater to watch Raiders of the Lost Ark.

Honestly it feels like the safest place during the pandemic. Absolutely deserted.
YNWA_AG
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I abused my AMC A LIST sub before COVID-19
jimscott85
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

It feels so weird looking forward to going to movies in the theater again. I feel like it's been ages since Tenet.

The last movie I watched in theaters pre-covid was Bad Boys For Life in January 2020.

Since then, I saw a grand total of 2 movies in theaters -- Empire Strikes Back, and Tenet.

It might not sound crazy to some, but for someone like me, who is an avid movie-goer, to have seen two movies in theaters in a calendar year is absolutely insane.
My thoughts..not based on numbers or raw data...just my gut:

The industry hopes your sentiment translates to a "return to normal" once everything is back. The hope is that avid movie-goers will return to the same pace and frequency. It's the avid movie-goer that forms the base attendance...even when the movies aren't great. You want to go and rate the movie yourself, and you don't depend on critics or word-of-mouth to make your decision. In fact, it's the avid movie-goer that also serves as the critic. If you frequently share your opinion, you're helping others make the decision.

The rest of the population goes to the movies for any variety of reasons. Appeal of a certain actor, topic or franchise. Maybe it's a date night or an escape on a long lunch. Maybe it's a summertime event for kids out of school. This group concerns me the most. If one out of every 10 non-avid movie-goer completely turns away from theaters as a result of the pandemic, that's a huge hit. It would have a ripple effect on pricing, selection, number of theaters and overall product. If there is a drop in this category, we hope it's temporary or maybe even muted by the folks that are just absolutely raving mad to get away.

The other caveat, and I really don't have an idea how it plays out, is the "recession resistant" nature of the business. For every person who maybe can't afford a movie ticket, there's another who can't a afford a concert ticket. The relatively low price of a movie as compared to other entertainment has helped the industry stand the test of time. I
 
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