*** Coronavirus Impact on the Entertainment Industry ***

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Definitely Not A Cop
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In reply to C@LAg • 4:01p, 3/1/21
AG
C@LAg said:
Must be nice for him living where "average ticket prices" are $9.

His analysis falls apart in most of the major metro areas.

not to mention no gas/uber costs.
No parking costs (potentially)
Time value of getting to and from the theater vs convenience.

I get what he is saying but he is literally dealing in absolutes.


Pretty sure you can still get a movie ticket in CS for $3-4

But yeah, I get the point. It also negates the fact that most people have more than one person watching on each account. So $20 to rent News of the World might be expensive if you live by yourself, but most people are splitting it with 2-4 people.
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C@LAg
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In reply to Definitely Not A Cop • 4:04p, 3/1/21
Champ Bailey said:
C@LAg said:
Must be nice for him living where "average ticket prices" are $9.

His analysis falls apart in most of the major metro areas.

not to mention no gas/uber costs.
No parking costs (potentially)
Time value of getting to and from the theater vs convenience.

I get what he is saying but he is literally dealing in absolutes.


Pretty sure you can still get a movie ticket in CS for $3-4

But yeah, I get the point. It also negates the fact that most people have more than one person watching on each account. So $20 to rent News of the World might be expensive if you live by yourself, but most people are splitting it with 2-4 people.
and completely ignores the value proposition of a Netflix or HBO MAX or Disney+ account where you get so much additional content for your $15+ that is likely to cut into your consuming product at theaters.

On a one-off basis, he is technically right, but it really is not an argument. No one cancels their HBO max subscription just as soon as they finish watching a movie.

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TCTTS
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In reply to Definitely Not A Cop • 4:07p, 3/1/21
AG
Exactly. The vast majority of the country isn't paying more than $10 per ticket, nor are they paying for parking. Sure, movie snacks no doubt cost more than most snacks I have at home, but people find ways around that as well, by either sneaking in their own food or making a meal out of it at an Alamo Drafthouse type theater and spending money they likely would have spent at a restaurant anyway.

Point is, at the very least, it's comparable. With one you get the convenience of your home, but with the other you get a night or afternoon out at basically the same price, if not cheaper.
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C@LAg
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In reply to TCTTS • 4:12p, 3/1/21
TCTTS said:
Exactly. The vast majority of the country isn't paying more than $10 per ticket, nor are they paying for parking. Sure, movie snacks no doubt cost more than most snacks I have at home, but people find ways around that as well, by either sneaking in their own food or making a meal out of it at an Alamo Drafthouse type theater and spending money they likely would have spent at a restaurant anyway.

Point is, at the very least, it's comparable. With one you get the convenience of your home, but with the other you get a night or afternoon out at basically the same price, if not cheaper.
Most of those titles on that list are adult fare.

The bulk of adults go to movies in the evenings where the ticket prices are the highest, even in cheaper markets where they will be paying that $9+ actual cost. So while it is nice to point to average ticket prices, the real costs of those adult tickets would bump the effective average price for those movies much higher than the overall US average of $9-10.

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Malachi Constant
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In reply to C@LAg • 4:25p, 3/1/21
AG
C@LAg said:
Must be nice for him living where "average ticket prices" are $9.

His analysis falls apart in most of the major metro areas.

not to mention no gas/uber costs.
No parking costs (potentially)
Time value of getting to and from the theater vs convenience.

Heck, in his own analysis for $14, I can see three of the movies on his list in a weekend.

I get what he is saying but he is literally dealing in absolutes.

And I think we all know the kinds of people that do this sort of thing.
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TCTTS
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In reply to C@LAg • 4:30p, 3/1/21
AG
I just looked up a 7 PM ticket tonight in my hometown in Texas with a population of over 100K - a town that serves as a pretty good barometer for the rest of the country in terms of population and prices - and it's exactly $10 on the dot. Sure, in LA I pay anywhere from $14 to $22 per ticket, plus parking, and I imagine it's similar in parts of, say, Dallas and the like, but the vast majority of the country isn't paying that. That girl's not pulling the $9 national-wide average ticket price out of his ass.

Further, the overall point is, theater-going still remains a relatively cheap outing/event experience, and is a great value, compared to most concerts, watching at home, etc. Either way, you're paying nearly as much at home to watch basically the same fare.

This seems like such a weird thing to harp on.
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veryfuller
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4:36p, 3/1/21
Staff
AG
Subscriptions are definitely a wallet drain, but if theaters or studios thought they could get in on that action they would 100% (which is one reason we have all these streaming platforms now). This argument makes no sense to me. No one is paying $14 just to watch Mank on Netflix. You'd have to do a cost assessment for each individual to see if it is really worth it (how much they watch netflix, assigning a $/minute, then calculate that for all the minutes of Mank). Then you'd have to do that for all the other platforms, etc. Needless to say, for an individual movie, I'd wager that its still cheaper to stream than to go to the movies. Is it as fun? No. But that should be the argument. Trying to make it an economic argument seems silly, IMO.
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TCTTS
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In reply to veryfuller • 4:44p, 3/1/21
AG
I hear you, but there's a reason I quoted Sam's tweet and not Emily's directly. My takeaway was the broad, overall, "good value" sentiment of it all, that streaming isn't some way cheaper alternative, etc. Ha, I had no idea this was going to be litigated to this degree or I wouldn't have posted it on such a whim.
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MBAR
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4:55p, 3/1/21
AG
Honestly, I don't see how you can compare theaters directly with subscription services on a value basis and make any argument that theaters are better. That tweet, and the quoted tweet, are just plain wrong, IMO.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/average-movie-ticket-rises-926-second-quarter-1225385

So, if we use an average ticket price then the only way its a better value is if the following is true:

- You're only seeing one piece of content
- You're seeing it alone

The moment you violate either of those two, the subscription service is the better value. If someone wants to advocate for theaters, you're going to have to do it on the grounds that the experience is worth an added expense because in no way is a single trip to the theater for me a better value than may Netflix or HBO Max subs. I didn't even bother factoring in food costs, comfort, or convince but just went simply on price value.
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C@LAg
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In reply to MBAR • 5:17p, 3/1/21
MBAR said:
Honestly, I don't see how you can compare theaters directly with subscription services on a value basis and make any argument that theaters are better. That tweet, and the quoted tweet, are just plain wrong, IMO.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/average-movie-ticket-rises-926-second-quarter-1225385

So, if we use an average ticket price then the only way its a better value is if the following is true:

- You're only seeing one piece of content
- You're seeing it alone

The moment you violate either of those two, the subscription service is the better value. If someone wants to advocate for theaters, you're going to have to do it on the grounds that the experience is worth an added expense because in no way is a single trip to the theater for me a better value than may Netflix or HBO Max subs. I didn't even bother factoring in food costs, comfort, or convince but just went simply on price value.
Yeah. If you are talking about a single person, then yes, the economics absolutely factor the individual seeing movies in the theater.

If you average the cost for all ten movies it comes to $11.9 ($119) for a streamer vs $9 ($90) for the movie-goer, using a $9 ticket price. As he used the term "right now" you pay once for your $14 Netflix sub and get three of those movies for your singular $14.




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FattyDelights
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8:29p, 3/1/21
Ahh, they are so desperate right now talking about value for 2-3 hours worth of entertainment. F them all - 'all in this together', right? lmfao.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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8:50p, 3/1/21
AG


Never seen Campea this heated.
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jimscott85
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In reply to C@LAg • 9:16p, 3/1/21
AG
His point is spot on when you consider the following:
  • Most folks won't watch all those movies in one month, which would mean multiple months of subscriptions to make it through the list.
  • In total, the 9 non-theater movies cost $110 making the break-even per movie $12.22. An avid movie-goer can pull that off even in the highest price locations (matinee, discount movie nights, etc.).

At worst, the analysis is break-even across 90% of the country. I get the point, though. It's not a drastically different cost. But what is drastically different in a "no theatrical" environment is the lack of options. As long as you're willing to wait 45 to 90 days, you can have the platform option if you choose in a hybrid environment.
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C@LAg
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4:16p, 3/3/21
Alamo Drafthouse Cinemas files for bankruptcy, seeks buyer

https://www.kwtx.com/2021/03/03/alamo-drafthouse-cinemas-files-for-bankruptcy-seeks-buyer/

Alamo Drafthouse Cinemas Holdings, a Texas-based dine-in theater chain, said Wednesday that it has filed for bankruptcy due to financial woes during the pandemic.

As part of the bankruptcy, Alamo Drafthouse will close down a few underperforming locations and restructure its lease obligations.
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fig96
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In reply to C@LAg • 4:22p, 3/3/21
AG
Sounds like a buyer is already involved per Variety, unless I'm reading that wrong. Sucks either way, hope they keep the concept intact.

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C@LAg
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In reply to fig96 • 4:25p, 3/3/21
yeah. just restructuring its financials/getting injections of cash to keep operations going for now. But that does not mean the new leadership/ownership may not run it differently if they are more profit-driven vs experience driven.

plenty of examples of smaller businesses bought out where the new owners think they can expand faster and wider than they should
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Bunk Moreland
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4:32p, 3/3/21
one of the investment groups is a previous investor, one isn't. I'm sure we'll see some changes but hopefully not too many. Love Alamo.
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nosoupforyou
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In reply to Bunk Moreland • 4:34p, 3/3/21
AG
are they still owned by anyone at Triple Tap Ventures?
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C@LAg
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In reply to nosoupforyou • 4:36p, 3/3/21
nosoupforyou said:
are they still owned by anyone at Triple Tap Ventures?
Founder Tim League will remain involved with the company and is among the lender group buying the assets.
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jimscott85
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In reply to Bunk Moreland • 9:02a, 3/4/21
AG
Bunk Moreland said:
one of the investment groups is a previous investor, one isn't. I'm sure we'll see some changes but hopefully not too many. Love Alamo.
Altamont has them listed as a current investment. Perhaps they're just picking up some additional ownership. And I wouldn't be surprised to see this as a short-term flip once the film slate firms up in the future.

Margins for theater chains can be tight. Restaurants are even tighter. It will be interesting to see how this is transitioned through bankruptcy for sure.
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nosoupforyou
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9:37a, 3/4/21
AG
with NYC opening up- is there any indication that current movie slots for blockbusters will hold?

Thinking about...

A Quite Place 2
Black Widow
Bond
Top Gun 2

etc.
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Bunk Moreland
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9:39a, 3/4/21
I think we'll get a lot more clarify for the rest of the year by the middle of April or so.
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MBAR
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5:16p, 3/4/21
AG
I get my 2nd vaccine tomorrow, so as long as its showing later this month I am def going to see Kong v Godzilla in theaters.
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TCTTS
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In reply to MBAR • 5:17p, 3/4/21
AG
Wow, nice.
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TCTTS
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In reply to nosoupforyou • 6:28p, 3/4/21
AG
nosoupforyou said:
with NYC opening up- is there any indication that current movie slots for blockbusters will hold?

Thinking about...

A Quite Place 2
Black Widow
Bond
Top Gun 2

etc.

A Quiet Place Part II - Already moved to September 17, 2021.
Black Widow - No word yet, but if it stays on May 7 Disney will need to start advertising for it again soon. So, if there's a new plan, I bet we hear any day now.
Bond - Already moved to October 8, 2021.
Top Gun 2 - This is "inside" info, but last I heard, about a month ago, Paramount was/is giving serious consideration to delaying again. Probably wouldn't be too much of a delay, though. Likely just to later in the summer. But that was before cases/deaths started dropping a ton, so who knows.
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TCTTS
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In reply to TCTTS • 6:30p, 3/4/21
AG
Then there's this...

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TCTTS
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In reply to TCTTS • 6:34p, 3/4/21
AG
Universal moving F9 back only a month is actually a great sign overall. Seeing as that announcement was made this morning, with all the latest info, they have to be confident in theaters being fully opened and roaring by the end of June. Which bodes well for Top Gun: Maverick, which opens a week later on July 2. That is, unless TG:M tries to move away from F9 now. But, again, I doubt it would move back more than a few weeks.
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TCTTS
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6:37p, 3/4/21
AG
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nosoupforyou
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In reply to TCTTS • 7:03p, 3/4/21
AG
Top Gun : Maverick - opening on Independence Day weekend? That's a winning combination no doubt...

Keep it!!
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YNWA_AG
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9:21p, 3/4/21
AG
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TCTTS
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In reply to YNWA_AG • 9:27p, 3/4/21
AG
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jimscott85
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In reply to YNWA_AG • 8:50a, 3/5/21
AG
Moving Quiet Place is interesting. Thriller/horror movies play on a very different trajectory than most other genres but the first movie didn't follow that pattern. It had a longer more stable box office run. Paramount appears to be taking advantage of the lack of competition. An opening for Quiet Place 2 in May 2021 may be no different than if it had opened pre-pandemic. And, if Black Widow does hold, you'll have great complementary product that won't cannibalize itself.
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TCTTS
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3:09p, 3/7/21
AG
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TCTTS
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1:32p, 3/8/21
AG
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jimscott85
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In reply to TCTTS • 2:54p, 3/8/21
AG
TCTTS said:
Great opportunity for studios to filter low-budget films through a theatrical release with relatively no competition from other new content. If it works, they'll pull in some relatively better margins while hopefully gathering enough data to speculate on future blockbuster returns.
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