Brian Earl Spilner said:
Me, to covid:
COVID to me:
*** Coronavirus Impact on the Entertainment Industry ***
162,930 Views |
1893 Replies |
Last: 2 yr ago by TCTTS
COVID to me:
I thought I'd come back to this thread for a status update. Fortunately, Omicron hasn't yet lead to a full shutdown, so maybe we're "out of the woods". I guess we'll see.
So far the 2021 Domestic Box is around $3.6B. We'll more than double last year's $2.1B, but we're well off the $11B+ annual mark established starting back in 2015.
November was $523M, which was roughly half of the pre-COVID trend. Eternals ($150M) and the Ghostbusters reboot ($90M) couldn't beat out Frozen II ($269M) from 2019. The lack of blockbuster titles had more of an impact than anything.
However, October Domestic Box hit $622M compared to a more recent trend of $800M+/-. The top 5 October '21 films of Venom 2, No Time to Die, Halloween Kills, Dune and Addams Fam 2 all pulled in over $510M together. Compare that to the top 5 October '19 films of $530M and we're looking quite strong.
We're in need of 1) big blockbuster titles and 2) more volume from all ranges of releases. The combination will fill the auditoriums week in and week out.
Of note, with a little data filtering it looks like the Lion King maxed out at about 4,800 screens. So far in 2021, No Time to Die maxed out at 4,400 screens. Considering that No Time to Die will still hit a few mom and pop small town theatres down the road, we haven't lost too much as far as screens go. And honestly that's not an awful thing...many locations were barely hanging on until the end of their lease or other contractual terms. The pandemic just sped up the closures. We'll see a few reopen here and there when litigation settles and a new operator can take over.
December will be the big test. Domestic box office has hit roughly $1B to $1.3B. Based on the available titles, even if attendance wasn't impacted from the pandemic fear factor, we'd struggle to it $900M. If we're rounding up to $900M for December box after it's all said and done, I'd say we're closer to "the way it was" than a "new status quo".
Key December films:
Pros and Cons:
Just my two cents. I'll try to remember and follow up here when January rolls around.
Data from Box Office Mojo. Note that theater chains have been less consistent on reporting data since the pandemic, but it's continuing to get better.
So far the 2021 Domestic Box is around $3.6B. We'll more than double last year's $2.1B, but we're well off the $11B+ annual mark established starting back in 2015.
November was $523M, which was roughly half of the pre-COVID trend. Eternals ($150M) and the Ghostbusters reboot ($90M) couldn't beat out Frozen II ($269M) from 2019. The lack of blockbuster titles had more of an impact than anything.
However, October Domestic Box hit $622M compared to a more recent trend of $800M+/-. The top 5 October '21 films of Venom 2, No Time to Die, Halloween Kills, Dune and Addams Fam 2 all pulled in over $510M together. Compare that to the top 5 October '19 films of $530M and we're looking quite strong.
We're in need of 1) big blockbuster titles and 2) more volume from all ranges of releases. The combination will fill the auditoriums week in and week out.
Of note, with a little data filtering it looks like the Lion King maxed out at about 4,800 screens. So far in 2021, No Time to Die maxed out at 4,400 screens. Considering that No Time to Die will still hit a few mom and pop small town theatres down the road, we haven't lost too much as far as screens go. And honestly that's not an awful thing...many locations were barely hanging on until the end of their lease or other contractual terms. The pandemic just sped up the closures. We'll see a few reopen here and there when litigation settles and a new operator can take over.
December will be the big test. Domestic box office has hit roughly $1B to $1.3B. Based on the available titles, even if attendance wasn't impacted from the pandemic fear factor, we'd struggle to it $900M. If we're rounding up to $900M for December box after it's all said and done, I'd say we're closer to "the way it was" than a "new status quo".
Key December films:
- 12/3 - Nothing new came out, but the post Thanksgiving weekend is typically absent any new releases.
- 12/10 - West Side Story
- 12/17 - Spider-Man (broke some records, and some computers, with ticket presales)
- 12/22 - Sing 2
- 12/22 - Matrix
Pros and Cons:
- Con - Stupid Omicron. As long as it dies like we all hope, we're good.
- Con - COVID, in general, will still keep some folks at home. It is what it is at this point.
- Pro - Nothing in the slate above will necessarily cannibalize another film. The only exception might be Spider-Man and Matrix for the casual movie-goer. But Spider-Man will be so front-loaded, it may not even be a factor.
- Con - The number of "other films" is still WAY down. Journal for Jordan, American Underdog, National Champions, etc. are nice to have, but the volume of $1M to $20M is significantly down either due to production delays or shifts to alternative delivery (Netflix, etc.). The impact of the absence of gap fillers like these is yet to be seen. It won't be as critical now if people are clamoring to see a movie and the operators to max out the screens for major titles, but it will play a role in dead periods.
Just my two cents. I'll try to remember and follow up here when January rolls around.
Data from Box Office Mojo. Note that theater chains have been less consistent on reporting data since the pandemic, but it's continuing to get better.
It's only Tuesday and so far this week, due to Omicron...
- Morbius delayed from January 28 to April 1.
- Ambulance delayed from February 18 to April 8.
- Sundance Film Festival (scheduled to kick off January 20) cancels in-person festival, going all-virtual.
- The Grammys (originally scheduled for January 31) postponed indefinitely.
Really hoping The Batman (March 4) isn't next, but at this point I'm not optimistic. Hopefully this spike plummets as fast as it's risen, as some think it might...
- Morbius delayed from January 28 to April 1.
- Ambulance delayed from February 18 to April 8.
- Sundance Film Festival (scheduled to kick off January 20) cancels in-person festival, going all-virtual.
- The Grammys (originally scheduled for January 31) postponed indefinitely.
Really hoping The Batman (March 4) isn't next, but at this point I'm not optimistic. Hopefully this spike plummets as fast as it's risen, as some think it might...
Honestly, at this rate I don't care anymore. If Hollywood is going to live in fear, let them go bankrupt.
It's not about "living in fear." It's about money. Rightfully or wrongfully so, a fairly sizable chunk of people aren't going to go to the theater during this spike. That's the reality. Thus, studios are hoping to maximize profits in the spring, when this hysteria has hopefully passed.
Spider-Man showed you otherwise. Give people a reason to come out and they will.
TCTTS said:
It's not about "living in fear." It's about money. Rightfully or wrongfully so, a fairly sizable chunk of people aren't going to go to the theater during this spike. That's the reality. Thus, studios are hoping to maximize profits in the spring, when this hysteria has hopefully passed.
I think Hollywood might have its finger on the wrong pulse. I think most of America is, rightly or wrongly, ready to move on. They just don't care any more. Either they and theirs are vaccinated or they aren't, and that's not gonna change.
Cases have spiked but deaths have remained unchanged. Hope we don't have more lockdowns. This spike will end up being a good thing and signaling the beginning of the end of the pandemic imo.
Philip J Fry said:
Spider-Man showed you otherwise. Give people a reason to come out and they will.
Not every movie is one of the most hyped superhero movies ever made. Sure, if either Morbius or Ambulance were as good or as hyped, everyone and their dog would come out, but here in reality we're talking about a Jared Leto movie and a Michael Bay movie. So I don't understand what your point is.
schmendeler said:TCTTS said:
It's not about "living in fear." It's about money. Rightfully or wrongfully so, a fairly sizable chunk of people aren't going to go to the theater during this spike. That's the reality. Thus, studios are hoping to maximize profits in the spring, when this hysteria has hopefully passed.
I think Hollywood might have its finger on the wrong pulse. I think most of America is, rightly or wrongly, ready to move on. They just don't care any more. Either they and theirs are vaccinated or they aren't, and that's not gonna change.
And I'm right there with them. I'm beyond ready to move on, and am way past giving a sh*t anymore. That said, I still know plenty of people who aren't going to theaters right now. And the studios are seeing that as well, and thinking, "We could make 90% of what we otherwise would, in Janaury/February - or - we can make 100% in April." I really do think it's as simple as that. No studio on earth wants to keep this nonsense up, but whatever data they're seeing, it's telling them to delay.
Gotcha
Brian Earl Spilner said:
Cases have spiked but deaths have remained unchanged. Hope we don't have more lockdowns. This spike will end up being a good thing and signaling the beginning of the end of the pandemic imo.
Yep, right there with you. Really hoping this is the beginning of the end. Like, the *actual* end, where not even LA can find reason to keep these kinds of precautions up, say, a couple months from now.
Better days are always on the horizon, case in point, Greys Anatomy just announced it's delaying production due to COVID concern.
I personally find the propensity to lockdown unpatriotic. Look at the crowds at the NFL/College Football games and compare that to studio execs. I mean this in all seriousness....the pandemic ends as soon as we stop letting it govern our lives. There's a tendency on a specific side of the political spectrum that wants this thing to drag out for some reason.
lol ok. Take it to the other forum Captain America.Philip J Fry said:
I personally find the propensity to lockdown unpatriotic. Look at the crowds at the NFL/College Football games and compare that to studio execs. I mean this in all seriousness....the pandemic ends as soon as we stop letting it govern our lives. There's a tendency on a specific side of the political spectrum that wants this thing to drag out for some reason.
Post in this thread: Movies are being delayed
Other Post in this thread: HOW DARE YOU AMERICA HATING JERKS LOCKDOWN.
SMH
I'm not sure they hate america, but I do think they are cowards.
Philip J Fry said:
I personally find the propensity to lockdown unpatriotic. Look at the crowds at the NFL/College Football games and compare that to studio execs. I mean this in all seriousness....the pandemic ends as soon as we stop letting it govern our lives. There's a tendency on a specific side of the political spectrum that wants this thing to drag out for some reason.
Movies aren't watched outdoors, where most football games are played, and where Covid isn't nearly as transmittable.
You may find all this "unpatriotic," but people like you who make this sh*t so political are just as annoying, and just as obtuse as those who are letting it govern our lives.
We both want this thing to be over and done with. And as much as I want to just to just let the chips fall where they may at this point - after the vaccine has been available for nearly a year now, and everyone who's going to get it, has it - I also don't know how we can outright ignore the record-breaking number of skyrocketing cases we're currently experiencing. Yes, they're far more mild - among the vaccinated, at least - but this thing is still killing thousands per day in America, and still qualifies as a bonafide pandemic.
People gather indoors at their workplace, restaurants, and grocery stores every day. The way to "move on" is that you recognize that there is a risk of getting sick and you go about your daily life. We would be better off if we accepted the fact that each and every one of us is going to get covid at some point instead of trying to outsmart it.
It doesn't help that Hollywood is located in covid fear porn capital of the US. They would probably have a different outlook on us pleabs if they visited a free red state every now and then.
As for the cases skyrocketing...who cares? It's hospitalizations that started this lockdown mess. Or at least the idea that we would overcrowd the hospitals with cases. That hasn't happened and is even less likely to happen with this variant. As hard as it is to hear this, but people who aren't vaccinated aren't looking for others to protect them from the virus. They've made their choice. If they end up in the hospital....well, that's what hospitals are for. They aren't meant to have empty beds to begin with.
It doesn't help that Hollywood is located in covid fear porn capital of the US. They would probably have a different outlook on us pleabs if they visited a free red state every now and then.
As for the cases skyrocketing...who cares? It's hospitalizations that started this lockdown mess. Or at least the idea that we would overcrowd the hospitals with cases. That hasn't happened and is even less likely to happen with this variant. As hard as it is to hear this, but people who aren't vaccinated aren't looking for others to protect them from the virus. They've made their choice. If they end up in the hospital....well, that's what hospitals are for. They aren't meant to have empty beds to begin with.
You act like Hollywood itself is promoting all of this fear porn. When, in reality, they're simply REACTING to it. An average movie released this month isn't going to make as much as the same movie released in the spring, when Omicron has hopefully subsided, and we're mostly through this sh*t. Again, that's the reality of the situation we're dealing with. So your beef should be with the audience choosing to stay home, not Hollywood, who is simply reacting to the data.
Also, Hollywood has been absolutely decimated the past two years, just as badly if not worse than many other industries. So, again, I ask you, why would Hollywood actively want to keep this nonsense going? I assure you, everyone here HATES this, and wants nothing more than to get back to normal, to quit delaying movies, etc.
In other words, stop using this thread to soapbox your political bullsh*t, because it doesn't apply here and no one wants to hear it.
Also, Hollywood has been absolutely decimated the past two years, just as badly if not worse than many other industries. So, again, I ask you, why would Hollywood actively want to keep this nonsense going? I assure you, everyone here HATES this, and wants nothing more than to get back to normal, to quit delaying movies, etc.
In other words, stop using this thread to soapbox your political bullsh*t, because it doesn't apply here and no one wants to hear it.
Only thing I care about is Batman. I don't see Morbius and Ambulance making money regardless of when they release.TCTTS said:
It's only Tuesday and so far this week, due to Omicron...
- Morbius delayed from January 28 to April 1.
- Ambulance delayed from February 18 to April 8.
- Sundance Film Festival (scheduled to kick off January 20) cancels in-person festival, going all-virtual.
- The Grammys (originally scheduled for January 31) postponed indefinitely.
Really hoping The Batman (March 4) isn't next, but at this point I'm not optimistic. Hopefully this spike plummets as fast as it's risen, as some think it might...
Choosing to stay at home? Good job releasing movies on HBO Max. That'll get folks out of their houses. The two movies that might have made a difference were Spiderman and The Matrix. And only one of them was worth watching.
Dune would have been too, but even we decided to watch it on our 86 inch at home instead of going out. We probably wouldn't have done that if it was a theatrical release only.
And for the record, most of my anger stems from the fact that movie theater ownership runs in my extended family (created Movie Tavern chain before selling to Cinemark) and I know how much they've been decimated. They pleaded with the movie studios to release stuff that would draw a crowd and were met with deaf ears. The execs appear to be waiting for the crowds to come back before they'll open the floodgates. It's backwards logic.
Dune would have been too, but even we decided to watch it on our 86 inch at home instead of going out. We probably wouldn't have done that if it was a theatrical release only.
And for the record, most of my anger stems from the fact that movie theater ownership runs in my extended family (created Movie Tavern chain before selling to Cinemark) and I know how much they've been decimated. They pleaded with the movie studios to release stuff that would draw a crowd and were met with deaf ears. The execs appear to be waiting for the crowds to come back before they'll open the floodgates. It's backwards logic.
I don't know man. I'd guess at least 95+% of them strongly support the democrat politicians pushing the hardest for lockdowns, mandates and insane over the top rules like vax passports. Kind of getting what they voted for if you ask me.TCTTS said:
You act like Hollywood itself is promoting all of this fear porn. When, in reality, they're simply REACTING to it.
Not sure if things will ever be back to the way they were before, at least in large parts of the country. This whole pandemic seems to have mentally wrecked millions of people and conditioned them in the worst ways. Hope I'm wrong.Philip J Fry said:
The execs appear to be waiting for the crowds to come back before they'll open the floodgates. It's backwards logic.
Boo Weekley said:I don't know man. I'd guess at least 95+% of them strongly support the democrat politicians pushing the hardest for lockdowns, mandates and insane over the top rules like vax passports. Kind of getting what they voted for if you ask me.TCTTS said:
You act like Hollywood itself is promoting all of this fear porn. When, in reality, they're simply REACTING to it.
95% is way, way over the mark. I can't dispel this myth enough, as I've tried to do for years now on this board. The Hollywood "liberal elite" do not in any way represent the actual thoughts and views of a sizable chunk of this industry. I know a lot of people out here, and I don't know a single one of them still pushing for lockdowns, mandates, vax passports, etc, and again, they sure as hell don't want to see any more delays.
If it isn't 95%, it's still way more than 50%.
And if they aren't pushing for vaxx mandates, they sure as hell aren't pushing back against mandates.
And if they aren't pushing for vaxx mandates, they sure as hell aren't pushing back against mandates.
Ha, ok? I never said anything about 50%. Your false equivalencies and points of comparison really are something else.
Then you missed the point of Boo's statement. That the vast majority of that industry supports the politicians who are shutting down their industry. You're the one that grappled onto the 95% number.
What if it were 60/40? Would you still call that a "vast" majority? Because I certainly wouldn't. Again, I'm here, I see it. You guys aren't. Instead, you're basing all of your assumptions on bias and cliches and then acting like I'm the one who doesn't know what I'm talking about.
Philip J Fry said:
Choosing to stay at home? Good job releasing movies on HBO Max. That'll get folks out of their houses. The two movies that might have made a difference were Spiderman and The Matrix. And only one of them was worth watching.
Dune would have been too, but even we decided to watch it on our 86 inch at home instead of going out. We probably wouldn't have done that if it was a theatrical release only.
And for the record, most of my anger stems from the fact that movie theater ownership runs in my extended family (created Movie Tavern chain before selling to Cinemark) and I know how much they've been decimated. They pleaded with the movie studios to release stuff that would draw a crowd and were met with deaf ears. The execs appear to be waiting for the crowds to come back before they'll open the floodgates. It's backwards logic.
You're literally blaming studios when you stayed home for the best av experience of the year in theaters but you care about theaters. Ok.
Nothing about his argument has made any sense. Studios tried their absolute damnedest to release movies in theaters, given the circumstances. Yet, for some reason he keeps acting like they didn't want to, which makes no sense, and couldn't have been further from the truth. Many theaters were forced to shut down for months. And when most of them finally did try and open back up, no one showed up, not even for a Christopher Nolan blockbuster. Yet he wants to blame the theater industry's woes on "Hollywood" for "living in fear" or whatever. Except that no reasonable person could have expected them to release all their movies as scheduled, during a global pandemic, knowing for a fact they wouldn't even make 25%, if that, of what they normally would.
I'm still mad Tenet didn't draw bigger crowds. I've completely run out of people to explain the movie to.
Ha, same. I'm still tempted to finally make my family watch it, just to see their reaction, and then to of course explain to them how great it is, and why.
If it hasn't been posted…
https://variety.com/2022/music/news/grammy-awards-postponed-2-1235142718/
https://variety.com/2022/music/news/grammy-awards-postponed-2-1235142718/
You might be right, especially when you go just beyond actors, producers, directors etc. I will just say that it feels like almost 100%, with very few exceptions like Chris Pratt, because the vocal people in the industry ALL push the same politics/narratives, almost without exception. The messaging and preaching is almost entirely liberal.TCTTS said:
What if it were 60/40? Would you still call that a "vast" majority? Because I certainly wouldn't. Again, I'm here, I see it. You guys aren't. Instead, you're basing all of your assumptions on bias and cliches and then acting like I'm the one who doesn't know what I'm talking about.
Even if you are liberal (you seem to be somewhat moderate by Cali standards at least) you should be fervently against their constant leftist outward rhetoric because I PROMISE YOU it does not sit well with most of us "slackjawed dullards in flyover country" or however the hardcore liberal preachers in the industry view us.
Featured Stories
See All
9:11
14h ago
17k
42:45
22h ago
4.6k
The Good Ol' Days: Reminiscing on Texas A&M's magical spring of '89
by David Sandhop