*** Coronavirus Impact on the Entertainment Industry ***

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TCTTS
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TCTTS said:


https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2020/03/coronavirus-movie-release-calendar

This article is being continually updated, just FYI.

With all the new Disney dates announced today, I finally went ahead and did a massive update to the release schedule in the OP of the MOVE TRAILERS & RELEASE DATES thread, in order to accurately reflect all of the changes over the past couple of weeks. A ton of big moves.

What's interesting is that, as recent as today, a couple of major titles (Mulan and the SpongeBob movie) have moved *to* the end of July. And Tenet still hasn't moved *from* July. So, as of now, at least, studios are seemingly still betting that the second half of the summer is salvageable. We shall see...
MBAR
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TCTTS said:

TCTTS said:


https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2020/03/coronavirus-movie-release-calendar

This article is being continually updated, just FYI.

With all the new Disney dates announced today, I finally went ahead and did a massive update to the release schedule in the OP of the MOVE TRAILERS & RELEASE DATES thread, in order to accurately reflect all of the changes over the past couple of weeks. A lot of big moves.

What's interesting is that a couple of big titles (Mulan and the SpongeBob movie) have moved *to* the end of July. And Tenet still hasn't moved *from* July. So, as of now, at least, studios are seemingly still betting that the second half of the summer is salvageable. We shall see...
What do you think happens if even though things start going back to normal in the Summer, places like movie theaters are not allowed to function normally. I think this is a quite likely scenario. While I think we might go back to some semblance of normal after May/June, I don't think we'll have any place with crowds that number int he hundreds up and running. IE no sports arenas, no movie theaters, maybe even no normal restaurants.

IOW, how long do you think they'll push movies back before they start throwing them online?
Brian Earl Spilner
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TCTTS said:

Well this doesn't sound good (though I admittedly only understood about half of it)...

https://www.thewrap.com/amcs-credit-rating-downgraded-by-sp-with-recovery-unlikely/
Sigh.

My local AMC is gonna close down. No question.
TCTTS
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The major blockbusters will never go online-only. If it takes pushing something like Black Widow back to 2021, that's what'll happen. They'll save those movies for whenever theaters are back to normal, regardless. That said, if large-ish gatherings aren't happening by September or so, or theaters are only allowed at half capacity, I do think we start to see a lot more mid-budget movies go online-only.

The bigger question is, will certain theater chains even be around come July/August/September? If, say, AMC doesn't find cash by June, they're literally going under. Granted, if that happens, I assume someone else will eventually buy up their locations/remaining resources come fall or so, and relaunch under new ownership, but who knows.
MBAR
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Will be interesting to see it play out. Along with the 2395830958390583 other interesting things happening right now.
fig96
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MBAR said:

TCTTS said:

TCTTS said:


https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2020/03/coronavirus-movie-release-calendar

This article is being continually updated, just FYI.

With all the new Disney dates announced today, I finally went ahead and did a massive update to the release schedule in the OP of the MOVE TRAILERS & RELEASE DATES thread, in order to accurately reflect all of the changes over the past couple of weeks. A lot of big moves.

What's interesting is that a couple of big titles (Mulan and the SpongeBob movie) have moved *to* the end of July. And Tenet still hasn't moved *from* July. So, as of now, at least, studios are seemingly still betting that the second half of the summer is salvageable. We shall see...
What do you think happens if even though things start going back to normal in the Summer, places like movie theaters are not allowed to function normally. I think this is a quite likely scenario. While I think we might go back to some semblance of normal after May/June, I don't think we'll have any place with crowds that number int he hundreds up and running. IE no sports arenas, no movie theaters, maybe even no normal restaurants.

IOW, how long do you think they'll push movies back before they start throwing them online?
Before the shelter in place/work from home started my local theater was selling tickets and skipping seats, then letting your family adjust to sit together when you go the theater. No idea whether that'll be allowed, but it will definitely be interesting to see how theaters may be allowed to adapt.

Agreed with TCTTS though, I don't see a world where tentpole type films start going straight to streaming. I think something like Trolls is an interesting case as I'd bet there's a ton of families who will line up for that, but there's just not enough revenue potential for a true Marvel/Disney type blockbuster to debut online.
TCTTS
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MBAR
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There will be huge changes though. In a few years people will move on and things will return to an actual normal, but entertainment options are already moving to in home environments so I don't think the comparison to the 1920s is apt.

I still think we'll have theaters, but I do think the landscape is in for some huge changes.
TCTTS
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I agree for the most part. To me, the above example *is* a huge change. If the nation's top theater chain goes under, and others rise in its place, that's obviously massive. And no doubt, streaming is likely the new king. But people are itching to get back to normal life, and that includes going to the movies again. We might have to sit a couple seats apart for the first couple of months, we might have to wear masks as we do so, and there will likely be public hand sanitizer stations all over the place, but people will go back to theaters in droves, and I'm betting they do so by fall. As much as the virus will change us from here on out, I think a lot about how we react to and deal with the virus will change drastically as well, by August/September or so. In other words, I think our state of mind will be very different by then, based on treatment advancements, a return to normal hospital conditions, etc.
TCTTS
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Bunk Moreland
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I'm not kidding, I'd go to the final 4 tomorrow night if it were happening and sit in a crowd of thousands even knowing what I know about coronavirus and what happening across the country.

I'd go to a movie tonight. Yes some will be scared of crowds but most of those folks already don't like crowds.
SlobberKnock
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More importantly what happens to my 2020 AMC free refill popcorn bucket?
Orlando Ayala Cant Read
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Maybe Netflix buys those theater houses up and allow for some sorta discount for subscribers to enter which would give them a leg up in getting the theaters up and going again?
Bunk Moreland
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Wrong thread
TCTTS
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Bunk Moreland said:

I'm not kidding, I'd go to the final 4 tomorrow night if it were happening and sit in a crowd of thousands even knowing what I know about coronavirus and what happening across the country.

I'd go to a movie tonight. Yes some will be scared of crowds but most of those folks already don't like crowds.


Yeah, I get the impression that this is how most people are feeling now. I'm not *quite* there yet, but I think I'll definitely be there by June or July or so. As long as there's a decent treatment in place, and I can get tested/get into a hospital no problem, should I need to, I won't care if I get the virus. Living in a big city, the only reason I'm cautious now is that if I *do* happen to be one of these people who randomly needs intensive care or a ventilator, despite being in good health, the last thing I want is to end up on some make-shift hospital bed in the middle of the Rose Bowl or wherever without a ventilator. But when that's no longer a concern, I'll be ready to take my chances and get back to as normal as possible.
Sex Panther
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I've been there... don't want to derail the thread, but to say I'm not in agreement with the steps we've taken so far would be just a bit of an understatement.


I'm all for them not letting people sit next to you in a theater though. As a big solo movie guy, that would be music to my ears.
Bunk Moreland
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Yeah I don't want to discount steps taken. They've worked even though in many areas it's simply overkill and basic social distancing would have been fine.

But we're at the point now where I just don't care and want to go see a movie. Which I'll admit is a bad point to be at but economic and social damage will be devastating for years.
BoydCrowder13
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I am going to be so depressed if AMC goes down.

I have 2 great AMC theaters 10 minutes from my house. Leather recliners and great concessions. I have AMC A-List. I have loved going to 1-2 movies a week for 2 years now (since the days of MoviePass).

It has really been a hobby of mine. And I really thought the whole movie subscriber thing had turned a corner.

Going to be a real bummer to see what happens to the industry.

TCTTS
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https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/cinemark-stock-rebounds-analyst-upgrades-220104325.html
Psychag
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I would expect drive in theaters should make a comeback. Bring your own snacks and drinks.
Fairview
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Psychag said:

I would expect drive in theaters should make a comeback. Bring your own snacks and drinks.


If they could figure out how to make the sound good at drive in's it would make drive ins boom long term.

I do agree with you short term that they should be way up because people will be desperate to get out of the house for anything.
TCTTS
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https://www.thewrap.com/bob-iger-teases-more-theatrical-releases-may-go-directly-to-disney-plus/
TCTTS
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This is weirdly kind of exciting? I don't know that I'll actually tune in for any of these, but there's a nostalgia here that certainly makes me want to...


https://news.avclub.com/cbs-to-start-airing-movies-on-sunday-nights-like-its-th-1842737331
double aught
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That is actually pretty cool. I watched a good portion of Raiders last night. My all-time favorite movie.

Also, lol at the last sentence of that article.
TCTTS
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https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/hollywoods-virus-relief-efforts-slow-materialize-far-1289115
Bunk Moreland
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Glad someone wasn't afraid to take that on and write the article. Was thinking about that the other day. Pro sports athletes are donating money to stadium/arena workers who don't have a job etc.
Aust Ag
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BoydCrowder13 said:

I am going to be so depressed if AMC goes down.

I have 2 great AMC theaters 10 minutes from my house. Leather recliners and great concessions. I have AMC A-List. I have loved going to 1-2 movies a week for 2 years now (since the days of MoviePass).

It has really been a hobby of mine. And I really thought the whole movie subscriber thing had turned a corner.

Going to be a real bummer to see what happens to the industry.


I wonder if they would consider removing every other seat, or at least requiring people not sit next to each other (unless they're together). Or even 2-3 seats in between. I think this is what's going to happen in restaurants....remove 25-35% of the tables. Distancing. It would make people feel more at ease, not have to worry about being exposed by a stranger. Sucks , hard to stay alive with a 35% reduction in business. Many will shutter.

Well wait, what about that guy behind you at the movies that sneezes or is coughing.

This movie thing may not work. Some are going down.
TCTTS
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There's a catch-22 at play that I can't quite figure out...

Yes, the practical play for theaters is to only sell every three seats or so, and then stagger every other row, where there's never anyone directly behind someone else. Maybe couples are allowed to sit together, but I don't know what you do with families. I'm sure there's a solution, though, albeit an imperfect one.

My bigger questions is this... if theaters are only allowing, say, half capacity, what studio is going to want to release their movies in an environment where the cap on their profits per theater is half what it would have been otherwise? Will studios continue to hold off new releases in that scenario? Or will we see more day-and-date releases (meaning a theatrical and streaming release on the same day), and the studios simply hope that whatever profit they're losing to half-full theaters is made up via streaming?

Granted, even under the best circumstances, not every showing of every movie is sold out. The vast majority of your average theaters/releases are likely only half-full regardless. But either way, again, this day-and-date scenario would only pertain to mid-range movies. In other words, what does Warner Bros. do with something like Wonder Woman 1984 on August 14, if theaters are still under an every-three-seats scenario? I just can't see WB releasing a movie that big into that kind of environment. So do we only get mid-range movies in theaters until we at least have a decent treatment for the virus (never mind a vaccine, as that won't be for another year, at least)?
mrsbeer05
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Maybe theaters cut way back on the number of movies they show. So put WW84 in 12 of the 16 theatres with 50% capacity. And the other 4 screens are a mid-level movie
TCTTS
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Yeah, that's not a bad idea. Though, that's a lot of movies looking for screens, considering how packed the fall will theoretically be.
mrsbeer05
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I agree, but studies might be more willing to let one movie earn big rather than all movies earn a tiny bit knowing that eventually things after going to open up. But I'm an education expert, not a business expert.
Bunk Moreland
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Maybe a new covid ranking will come out.

"Top Gun: Maverick is 98% fresh and has a consensus 100% covid capacity ranking.

Wonder Woman comes in 2nd at 87% fresh with a 75% covid capacity score."
fig96
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I think not the answer but the "evolution" there is what we see in Alamo, Movie House, etc.

My old CEO was friends with the guy that started Alamo and made an interesting comment when we were talking about the concept. Their business model isn't operating as a theater but rather as a restaurant that shows movies, and if you look at creating revenue that way it's a whole different ballgame. I can see how that would be a whole lot more sustainable.

You'd still obviously want to sell as many seats as possible, but if people are coming in for a meal and drinks that's easily 2 or 3x the price of a ticket on the low end. Granted that doesn't help the studio, but they more than likely aren't the ones hurting for cash in this scenario.
MBAR
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fig96 said:

I think not the answer but the "evolution" there is what we see in Alamo, Movie House, etc.

My old CEO was friends with the guy that started Alamo and made an interesting comment when we were talking about the concept. Their business model isn't operating as a theater but rather as a restaurant that shows movies, and if you look at creating revenue that way it's a whole different ballgame. I can see how that would be a whole lot more sustainable.

You'd still obviously want to sell as many seats as possible, but if people are coming in for a meal and drinks that's easily 2 or 3x the price of a ticket on the low end. Granted that doesn't help the studio, but they more than likely aren't the ones hurting for cash in this scenario.
I mean this is the business model for all theaters I think. Cinemark isn't making much off the price of admission, but rather on the 6 dollar soda, 5 dollar popcorn, and 10 dollar marg you buy at concessions.
fig96
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Right, but a 10 dollar cocktail and a 20 dollar meal is a whole different ballgame as far as revenue. Though granted the markup on popcorn must be insane

I just think we're going to see theaters start to differentiate themselves more, it's been massively successful for Alamo and seems to be working for other similar theater concepts.
 
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