TCTTS said:
I don't quite understand the "based on sales and points" part of your question, as it's the studio who makes the decisions "based on sales points" and dozens of other factors and not any of those other people you mentioned.
I probably worded my inquiry poorly. And as if often the case in these conversations, I'm probably interchanging words that mean different things to people more in the know, such as yourself. It's more a question of the politics and money behind the calculus not to send movies to platforms like Disney+ and push theater release dates back seemingly indefinitely. Studios have the ultimate say correct, but is the streaming vs. theater release location known prior? From the outside looking in it seems to be some properties are accepted as theater releases, but is the difference known in advance (i.e. contracted) and can/will that change?
In sending a film like Black Widow (the only female Avenger with a brand-name, superstar lead in possibly her final performance in the role) straight to Disney+, could it affect how others (e.g. investors, producers, directors, actors, etc) respond to future projects and roles versus if they are essentially 'guaranteed' to have a theatrical release. It seems like it would be hard to get A-Listers to be a part of projects that may be straight-to-video or straight-to-streaming, as decided by the studio, without a corresponding adjustment to compensation.
From the studio perspective, Black Widow may or may not be a hit, and it may or may not be profitable but regardless having a theatrical release continues a sort of tradition of movies within the Marvel universe and still could be a loss leader. Studios can and will play the long game but producers, investors, directors, actors, and crew generally are playing a much shorter game. For all we know the studio may have language stating Scarlett Johansson must have one more 'theatrical release' to fulfill her contract and they are pushing BW into theaters so both parties don't have to force BW into another movie. Or maybe the studio doesn't want to send such an A-list actress, in a premier role down to streaming because it knows she wont work for that studio again. (not saying that is what is happening, just spitballing)
That being said if studio has the power and discretion to send a movie like BW to Disney+ or other streaming service, I imagine it creates a kind of future potential risk and potential structural change to certain movie properties could get forced to streaming services that originally were planned, financed and staffed.
edit: And I appreciate these issues are super complex and the mechanisms are often purposefully opaque so I'm talking in generalities when more nuance is likely very much needed
