nosoupforyou said:

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Fenrir said:

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A little cherry picking. Demon Slayer is a cultural phenomenon over there. The second highest grossing movie of 2020 would have barely squeaked into 2019 top 10.

If that level of a movie is needed to resurrect the movie theater experience in the US, theaters may be in big trouble.

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Is Demon Slayer playing in the US? Is this a good movie? Parasite was sooooo bad so I'm skeptical

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fig96 said:

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It's not the technical aspect, it's the feel.

I don't care how good your system is, it can't replicate the feel of "A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away...." then that first John Williams hit in a darkened theater.

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Maybe, but I tend to think this is by far the most overrated aspect of movie going.

This is huge...

Agreed on all accounts. Gonna be interesting to see this play out. I went from thinking Black Widow had no chance to keep that May slot, to now being cautiously optimistic. That said, I feel like this is all going to fall on LA at this point, and right now the only thing I'm relatively confident in is that they'll find a way to overthink it and screw it up.

if Black Widow stays - then Top Gun 2 stays in July, right? Really hope they keep it where it is

I would assume so, yes. But different studios could mean potentially different strategies. We'll have to wait and see.

If you're Disney and you've waited this long with Black Widow, are you really going to go with it with theaters taht are 25% capacity? I'm skeptical still.

Black Widow releases two months and two days from March 5th, which is a significant enough amount of time to potentially jump to 50% capacity, if not well past that. I think it all depends on these March variants that may or may not hit before we can get more vaccinated.

you'd think they'd want something with less investment to prove the concept that people even want to go back to theaters in significant numbers, regardless of pandemic circumstance over the next six months

also skeptical

nosoupforyou said:

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if Black Widow stays - then Top Gun 2 stays in July, right? Really hope they keep it where it is

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Unfortunately, it's about Black Widow staying AND performing. There's enough time in between for TG2 to get bumped if performance isn't observably beneficial to the industry.

Disney is in a good position to leave Black Widow in it's current spot. Disney+ has outperformed on its subscriber base and they aren't exactly going to lose subscribers if Black Widow hits theaters first. At least I hope that's the case.

From a recent commentary on the topic:

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we have acknowledged that the three top moviegoing cities remaining closedNYC, Los Angeles, and San Franciscocreates a high level of near-term uncertainty around the Hollywood film slate. While we predicted last month that any film on the calendar through June could be at risk of additional delays should those three cities not reopen in time, this NYC reopening news could help to provide incremental slate stability. Along with NYC contributing about 7% of overall 2019 box office revenues, having theaters open in that city would allow for movie reviews to be written by local media outletsboth of which are important considerations for studios in whether or not to release a film or delay it until a later date.

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If LA and San Fran can't get it together, there could still be some issues. However, the numbers in CA seem to be trending even better than the rest of the country (whether that's a real or artificial trend remains to be seen). CA metro areas will struggle to keep things closed and keep people happy. Studios and other industry players could threaten to move future production to other states as a negotiating tactic. Texas and other southern states won't be shy to offer up incentives to produce upcoming films.

Even if LA, San Fran and NYC open up to 50% or less, the right timing could still make up for the lost capacity. If the theatrical release of Black Widow isn't challenged by other blockbusters, theater chains can run the movie on more screens for longer weekends to accommodate the capacity issues.

All we need is one film to provide the basis for some analytics to determine whether customer appetite is being pushed down by 1) the pandemic or 2) the prevalence of alternative viewing options.

It feels like having the Disney+ option available makes a theatrical Black Widow release less risky as well, they could always just transition platforms at any time if they feel like that's in their best interests.

here's the big question - is Black Widow a good movie? that will drive the numbers as much as the pandemic

WW84 was a bad movie, and Tenant was just ok - so it's not fair to say the pandemic caused their poor numbers - they simply weren't as good as past movies in the series (Inception, etc.)

there's no way their populace has been as psychically damaged by this pandemic as ours has

nosoupforyou said:

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here's the big question - is Black Widow a good movie? that will drive the numbers as much as the pandemic

WW84 was a bad movie, and Tenant was just ok - so it's not fair to say the pandemic caused their poor numbers - they simply weren't as good as past movies in the series (Inception, etc.)

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Agree, but I don't think the industry is entirely blaming the performance of these movies on COVID. Studio management may try to deflect to the pandemic on these films, but it's definitely not an internal statement. The ultimate evaluation uses "big data." They are constantly aggregating data from critics, social media and a variety of other sources to gauge customer sentiment both real-time and post-mortem. A film could be impacted by a number of outside influences and the studios don't want those influences to impact the evaluation of the overall film performance.

As an example, say the studio was banking on $300M for Black Widow pre-pandemic and it only did $100M when it does come out. They'll still use the same "big data" sources to understand the customer response to the movie and try to estimate where it would have fallen based on similar responses to similar movies based on demographic appeal, etc.

If you're a movie buff and you're wanting to see the movies come back to the theaters, you care less about the appeal of the film or even its actual numbers. You care more about the studio's ability to evaluate the results and determine whether the pandemic is having a continued impact.

MBAR said:

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nosoupforyou said:

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here's the big question - is Black Widow a good movie? that will drive the numbers as much as the pandemic

WW84 was a bad movie, and Tenant was just ok - so it's not fair to say the pandemic caused their poor numbers - they simply weren't as good as past movies in the series (Inception, etc.)

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I still don't buy this. Bad blockbusters constantly make lots of money. Its the pandemic, not the quality of the movie.

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Indiana Jones and the Crystal Skull proves your point - and so does Captain Marvel so you are a little bit right -both terrible and blah movies

but there's surely movies that were just bad and therefore less successful

MBAR said:

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nosoupforyou said:

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here's the big question - is Black Widow a good movie? that will drive the numbers as much as the pandemic

WW84 was a bad movie, and Tenant was just ok - so it's not fair to say the pandemic caused their poor numbers - they simply weren't as good as past movies in the series (Inception, etc.)

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I still don't buy this. Bad blockbusters constantly make lots of money. Its the pandemic, not the quality of the movie.

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It's probably a bit of both. Right now people are itching for a reason to go to a movie but still probably hesitant, so something genuinely good would move the needle. We're also looking much better for audiences in May vs what we had in November/December which will definitely help.

I'd also wager Black Widow will at least be pretty good based on Marvel's track record.

nosoupforyou said:

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MBAR said:

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nosoupforyou said:

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here's the big question - is Black Widow a good movie? that will drive the numbers as much as the pandemic

WW84 was a bad movie, and Tenant was just ok - so it's not fair to say the pandemic caused their poor numbers - they simply weren't as good as past movies in the series (Inception, etc.)

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I still don't buy this. Bad blockbusters constantly make lots of money. Its the pandemic, not the quality of the movie.

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Indiana Jones and the Crystal Skull proves your point - and so does Captain Marvel so you are a little bit right -both terrible and blah movies

but there's surely movies that were just bad and therefore less successful

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The Transformers films have steadily trended down in both quality and box office take, the first three each made over $300 million domestic and the last one (as well as Bumblebee which was actually a solid movie) around $130 million.

But yes, bad movies do sometimes make money (usually big property blockbusters like you mentioned).

fig96 said:

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MBAR said:

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nosoupforyou said:

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here's the big question - is Black Widow a good movie? that will drive the numbers as much as the pandemic

WW84 was a bad movie, and Tenant was just ok - so it's not fair to say the pandemic caused their poor numbers - they simply weren't as good as past movies in the series (Inception, etc.)

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I still don't buy this. Bad blockbusters constantly make lots of money. Its the pandemic, not the quality of the movie.

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It's probably a bit of both. Right now people are itching for a reason to go to a movie but still probably hesitant, so something genuinely good would move the needle. We're also looking much better for audiences in May vs what we had in November/December which will definitely help.

I'd also wager Black Widow will at least be pretty good based on Marvel's track record.

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Its all based on the theatrical experience imo. 25% capacity for blockbuster movies is not an event really worth my money right now. Wearing a mask for 2+ hours next to people you already know and greater than six feet away from everyone isnt all that great of a way to spend my free time. I saw the Train to Busan sequel and Tenet in the theater and it was an OK experience but it wasn't great or really that much fun. And I was trying to patronize Alamo and their staff, not the studios.

Seeing a movie should be fun; not a hassle. With most of the current restrictions in place, the movie better be well worth it. I think a lot of us are willing to see a lower quality movie if the overall experience is good, but right now it's not much different than sitting in an airport.

Super interesting, thanks for sharing that.

Of course, if you were a producer, writer, or director with some sort of back end deal that film is somehow still losing money currently

From my very limited experience helping some old clients with financing theatrical and movie productions, you definitely get the feeling that the accounting of such projects are, well, funky.

I think all of them wound up as money losers, especially the theater projects; it must for a love of the art form

TC or any other Hollywood types, wanted to get your input. I know LA and NYC are basically still closed down, so are you seeing people move filming operations to other more open states? I was listening to JRE and he was talking about how there is starting to be a big migration of comics to places like Austin where they can perform, so just wanted to see if that same thing was starting to occur in film.

I don't believe so. The difference is that comics need a live audience. Because of how much filming contributes to the state, I think they have a pass to operate.

Speaking of comics, how is chapelle doing.?

third coast.. said:

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Chipotlemonger said:

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I don't believe so. The difference is that comics need a live audience. Because of how much filming contributes to the state, I think they have a pass to operate.

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rules for thee and not for me. perfect example was the lady who couldn't operate her restaurant but some production company had a massive tent set up in her parking lot to use because they got a waiver.

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Also worth noting that as a film set they've got extensive protocols in place for screening, testing, safety, etc.

Not that there aren't a variety of points to be made about the rules that are in place because there certainly are, but this is an apples and oranges comparison.

third coast.. said:

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they denied her for a permit to serve on a patio while setting up a 'patio' area about 200x the size of hers in the parking lot adjacent to her restaurant. they both look like apples to me.

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Without knowing what screening and other protocols the movie set has in place that isn't a comparison you can accurately make.

And again, not saying it's necessarily fair and California isn't known for their effective government, there's just more to it than a flat comparison.

fig96 said:

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third coast.. said:

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they denied her for a permit to serve on a patio while setting up a 'patio' area about 200x the size of hers in the parking lot adjacent to her restaurant. they both look like apples to me.

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Without knowing what screening and other protocols the movie set has in place that isn't a comparison you can accurately make.

And again, not saying it's necessarily fair and California isn't known for their effective government, there's just more to it than a flat comparison.

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It's California, I think we can make the general assumption with some level of accuracy. Restrictions across the country haven't been uniformly applied and we can see that right here in Texas (you can get a burger but you can't get a haircut). Just at face value, it should be concerning that you can't get food but you can count on a low budget film coming in the next year.

That said, several projects were greenlit in California even in the midst of the pandemic and came with some significant tax breaks. There were a couple articles back in mid/late 2020 on the topic.