nosoupforyou said:
if Black Widow stays - then Top Gun 2 stays in July, right? Really hope they keep it where it is
Unfortunately, it's about Black Widow staying AND performing. There's enough time in between for TG2 to get bumped if performance isn't observably beneficial to the industry.
Disney is in a good position to leave Black Widow in it's current spot. Disney+ has outperformed on its subscriber base and they aren't exactly going to lose subscribers if Black Widow hits theaters first. At least I hope that's the case.
From a recent commentary on the topic:
Quote:
we have acknowledged that the three top moviegoing cities remaining closedNYC, Los Angeles, and San Franciscocreates a high level of near-term uncertainty around the Hollywood film slate. While we predicted last month that any film on the calendar through June could be at risk of additional delays should those three cities not reopen in time, this NYC reopening news could help to provide incremental slate stability. Along with NYC contributing about 7% of overall 2019 box office revenues, having theaters open in that city would allow for movie reviews to be written by local media outletsboth of which are important considerations for studios in whether or not to release a film or delay it until a later date.
If LA and San Fran can't get it together, there could still be some issues. However, the numbers in CA seem to be trending even better than the rest of the country (whether that's a real or artificial trend remains to be seen). CA metro areas will struggle to keep things closed and keep people happy. Studios and other industry players could threaten to move future production to other states as a negotiating tactic. Texas and other southern states won't be shy to offer up incentives to produce upcoming films.
Even if LA, San Fran and NYC open up to 50% or less, the right timing could still make up for the lost capacity. If the theatrical release of Black Widow isn't challenged by other blockbusters, theater chains can run the movie on more screens for longer weekends to accommodate the capacity issues.
All we need is one film to provide the basis for some analytics to determine whether customer appetite is being pushed down by 1) the pandemic or 2) the prevalence of alternative viewing options.