Rick Dalton said:
TCTTS said:
It's only the Wednesday after opening weekend and, at least from my vantage, Tenet talk has almost completely dissipated online. I'm seeing next to no tweets/articles about it anymore. Without New York and LA media helping drive the conversations, it feels like it's already come and gone. I also can't help but think that if it would have been received better, it'd have legs going into this weekend. But, as is, I'm now afraid it's not even going to do half of what it did this past weekend, if even that. So... yeah. If this weekend is a disaster, I think you're right. I think everything moves to November/December, if we're lucky, but most likely everything just moves to 2021.
That $20 million included theaters in Canada and the early access screenings. WB said when they announced it that there was no context behind that number but if they push WW1984 and Dune that'll really say it all.
I don't want to turn this thread into a debate on the severity of the coronavirus or the accuracy of models, but most of the "experts" expect things to get worse this fall and the IHME model currently predicts 410k dead by the end of the year. That's just not an environment where more people are going to be willing to go back to the theater. My local AMC has been a ghost town and I don't see how they're making any money, especially considering that WB is taking over 60% of the gross. This'll probably be my last trip to see Tenet and I'll have seen it more times than most.
Only Disney knows for sure, but this article speculates that Mulan is doing better than Hamilton on Disney+. If that's the case and WB pushes I'd expect to see Black Widow go to Premier Access PVOD too for North America and stick with international theatrical where viable. The outrage over having to pay for Premier Access twice will be fun to watch but plenty of people will do it.
This article explains the potential WW84 delay a little better...
https://theplaylist.net/wb-delaying-dune-wonder-woman-1984-20200909/Basically, if true, it's less about
Tenet underperforming this past weekend, and more about giving it additional time/screens to perform in LA and NY when theaters in those two markets (hopefully) re-open in late September / early October. So that context is a little more comforting/less alarmist.
As for the Covid numbers, I could be completely off, but I just can't see deaths doubling by the end of the year, especially with the overall numbers decreasing like they are currently. I know the weather and the flu obviously have a lot to do with those projections, but treatments are getting better, front line workers and those most susceptible will likely have the vaccine by the end of the year, etc. And I just think people will become increasingly comfortable with returning to the theater in general. But who knows.
Regardless, I guess the main problem remains. Yes,
Tenet will be new to NY and LA theaters come October, and thus likely do decent business, but what about the rest of the country, where it's already old news? If WB moves WW84, they need to make it crystal clear to the industry that it's not a panic move. It's to give
Tenet ample time/more theaters in the country's biggest two markets, and then hopefully other studios will keep their mid-budget release calendar as-is in October, with
Candyman,
Death on the Nile, etc, as the above article speculates.