Okay guys. It's a slow day at work. TLDR warning for sure.
Dak is NO worse than the 4th best QB to enter the NFL since he was drafted. Here are the notable name QBs that have come in the NFL either with Prescott, in chronological, then draft order:
- Jared Goff- same year as Dak
- Carson Wentz- same year as Dak
- Patrick Mahomes- year after Dak
- Deshaun Watson- year after Dak
- Baker Mayfield- 2 years after Dak
In 2018, you also have Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, and Lamar Jackson. I think Mayfield had the best year of those guys statistically, so I will include only Mayfield in my analysis.
Using pro football reference, here are Dak's career numbers:
Passing yards: 10876
Passing TDs: 67
INTs: 25
Completion percentage: 66.1
Rushing yards: 944
Rushing TDs: 18
Fumbles: 25
You might say that those numbers aren't great. And I agree: they're not world shattering like some guys we'll see soon. Let's compare that to division rival QB Carson Wentz.
Carson Wentz:
Passing yards: 10152
Passing TDs: 70
INTs: 28
Completion percentage: 63.7
Rushing yards: 542
Rushing TDs: 2
Fumbles:32
Dak has played 48 games, Wentz has played 40 games. In my opinion, Dak is the best QB in the division.
Let's talk about Goff too. He had a great year last year, and looks to build off of that. But... if you take the career numbers into account:
Jared Goff:
Passing yards: 9581
Passing TDs: 65
INTs: 26
Rushing yards: 175
Rushing TDs: 4
Fumbles: 25
Dak, as of right now, has better numbers. However, Goff has played in 10 less games than Dak, 38 to 48. I would place Goff ahead of Dak, which I don't think too many people would disagree with. But Dak isn't AS far off from Goff as people would think.
The guy that blows Dak out of the water (and everyone else for that matter) is Mahomes.
Patrick Mahomes:
Passing yards: 5381
Passing TDs: 50
INTs: 13
Rushing yards: 282
Rushing TDs: 2
Fumbles: 9
And Mahomes has done all that in 17 career games. He's head and shoulders the top QB.
Deshaun Watson:
Passing yards: 5864
Passing TDs: 45
INTs: 17
Rushing yards: 820
Rushing TDs: 7
Fumbles: 12
Watson did this in 23 career games. I think it's also reasonable to say that Watson is better than Dak. But then again, he hasn't done it for as long as Dak has. Dak has played the most games at QB for a QB entering the NFL since 2016. An argument could be made on either side, but just for the sake of discussion, let's say that Watson is ahead of Dak. Although in my mind it's closer to a tossup than people might think.
That leaves only Baker Mayfield.
Baker Mayfield:
Passing yards: 3725
Passing TDs: 27
INTs: 14
Rushing yards: 131
Rushing TDs: 0
He did this in 13 career games. In my opinion, the jury is still out on Mayfield. But people are expecting him to take a step forward next year. But it wouldn't surprise me if he regressed a bit, although the Browns have so many weapons now I don't see how he DOESN'T take the next step. But as of right now, Dak is the better QB of the two, and I don't think anyone can reasonably disagree with that.
So finally that brings us to the ranking of QBs to enter the NFL since Dak did:
1.) Mahomes
2.) Goff
3.) Watson (tentatively)
4.) Dak
5.) Wentz
6.) Mayfield
You also have the other guys I mentioned: Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, Lamar Jackson, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins, and of course Kyler. Darnold, Allen, Rosen and Jackson were all fairly mediocre last year statistically. Haskins, Jones and Kyler have yet to play a down in the NFL.
Right now, you aren't going to find a better young QB in the NFL than Dak other than Mahomes, Goff and likely Watson. He's the best QB in a division where half the division is looking to build around young QBs, one of which (Jones) was viewed as a massive reach at the time. You pay Dak, because he actually IS worth the money. The numbers don't lie. Dak is not a bad NFL QB.