What gives you confidence for November?

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titan
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In reply to Removed:09182020 • 10:43p, 7/23/20
S
Malibu said:
Interesting new horse race. You immediately gain more polish and tact on the right, which goes a long way. Then its a true who can turn out their base. I think Penn and Wisconsin are more in play, Florida goes closer to Pence lock. Arizona holds back the dam of demographics for one final ride.

On the other hand, the left, in the words of Tupac, hates Trump as a staff, record label, and MFing crew. Theres still little love there, but motivation for anti-vote is less.

Id handicap it as Pence a slight favorite in the EC, slight dog in the popular vote.
Good post and reasonable projections per state. Its something been mulling- - as not even unlikely given the obsessions of the House and Trump's strong tendency to give them ammo.
FrioAg 00:
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
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policywonk98
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In reply to tsuag10 • 10:45p, 7/23/20
AG
tsuag10 said:
If Trump pulls anything close to 30% of the black vote it's game over.


He only needs about 10-12% for it to be game over. 30% would be a landslide.

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Trucker 96
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In reply to Removed:09182020 • 10:48p, 7/23/20
Malibu said:
Trump may be loved by 35% of the population, tolerated by 10%, but hes loathed by 50%.


Just like 2016
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Barnyard96
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11:08p, 7/23/20
AG
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akm91
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In reply to policywonk98 • 11:13p, 7/23/20
AG
policywonk98 said:
tsuag10 said:
If Trump pulls anything close to 30% of the black vote it's game over.


He only needs about 10-12% for it to be game over. 30% would be a landslide.

Yep, he got 8% in 2016. If he were to get 12% that would be significant
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Marvin_Zindler
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 11:15p, 7/23/20
AG
oldarmy1 said:
What does Biden stand for? Lawlessness, open borders, extreme taxation, Weakened national security.

The country isn't going to elect that. Women or little girl sniffing not withstanding...
And this should be Trumps message ad naseum until November. Plus no crazy-ass tweeting.
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MemphisAg1
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11:16p, 7/23/20
AG
Still think it's uphill for Trump due to pandemic, recession, and social unrest. Any one of those could doom a re-election bid. Three at the same time would normally be insurmountable.

But the Dems are over-playing their hand by embracing rioting, looting, defunding of police, and extreme social justice measures.

Will be interesting to see the final vote tally. As of today, advantage Dems. But plenty of time left for it to change.
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Marvin_Zindler
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11:19p, 7/23/20
AG
I know a whole lot more people who plan to vote for Trump in 2020 than did in 2016. And by vote, I mean crawl over broken glass dipped in cat sh*t and wuhan flu.



I know no one who voted for Trump in 2016 who plans to vote for Biden in 2020.


I assume anyone who was hardcore "with" that ragged old bit$h in 2016, will vote for Sleepy Joe.
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titan
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In reply to MemphisAg1 • 11:27p, 7/23/20
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MemphisAg1 said:
Still think it's uphill for Trump due to pandemic, recession, and social unrest. Any one of those could doom a re-election bid. Three at the same time would normally be insurmountable.

But the Dems are over-playing their hand by embracing rioting, looting, defunding of police, and extreme social justice measures.

Will be interesting to see the final vote tally. As of today, advantage Dems. But plenty of time left for it to change.
I agree its uphill, if you look at the thread posted about Tucker's show tonight, there is actually plan and method to the madness, and it centers on this public perception track of "is the nation on the right track"? and how perversely, it doesn't matter how and WHO ruined something, the vote tends to be kind of mindless about voting for change to get away from it.

This introduces a new and greater danger -- the Left has the power in the blue cities to continue to ruin things, and the MSM makes sure they are never accountable. So this contemptible scheme may work.
FrioAg 00:
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
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Predmid
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11:45p, 7/23/20
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More people will protest vote 3rd party since ross Perot run in the 90s

That gives me hope.
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titan
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In reply to Predmid • 11:56p, 7/23/20
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Predmid said:
More people will protest vote 3rd party since ross Perot run in the 90s

That gives me hope.
Wouldn't it be interesting if we had the kind of system where you have three, and the two with the most votes then face off. In such a scenario and the third is out; could easily see it being the Trump and 3rd Party candidate (the "Perot").
FrioAg 00:
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
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MemphisAg1
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In reply to titan • 6:33a, 7/24/20
AG
titan said:
MemphisAg1 said:
Still think it's uphill for Trump due to pandemic, recession, and social unrest. Any one of those could doom a re-election bid. Three at the same time would normally be insurmountable.

But the Dems are over-playing their hand by embracing rioting, looting, defunding of police, and extreme social justice measures.

Will be interesting to see the final vote tally. As of today, advantage Dems. But plenty of time left for it to change.
I agree its uphill, if you look at the thread posted about Tucker's show tonight, there is actually plan and method to the madness, and it centers on this public perception track of "is the nation on the right track"? and how perversely, it doesn't matter how and WHO ruined something, the vote tends to be kind of mindless about voting for change to get away from it.

This introduces a new and greater danger -- the Left has the power in the blue cities to continue to ruin things, and the MSM makes sure they are never accountable. So this contemptible scheme may work.
Yep, kind of like hope and change in 2008. What kind of a slogan is that?

One that worked.
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The Kraken
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In reply to titan • 6:44a, 7/24/20
AG
I won't vote for Trump. I'd definitely vote for Pence if he was candidate...likely any other Republican for that matter.
plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose
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Pumpkinhead
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7:18a, 7/24/20
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Trump has done some things lately, including demoting his campaign manager, starting to talk more serious about COVID again, some possible 'Wag the Dog' dirt kicking with China, that could indicate he and those running his campaign are concerned about their internal polling numbers.
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Counterpoint
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In reply to titan • 7:26a, 7/24/20
AG
titan said:
Predmid said:
More people will protest vote 3rd party since ross Perot run in the 90s

That gives me hope.
Wouldn't it be interesting if we had the kind of system where you have three, and the two with the most votes then face off. In such a scenario and the third is out; could easily see it being the Trump and 3rd Party candidate (the "Perot").
This!
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nortex97
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7:33a, 7/24/20
AG
I daw confidence based on two things; (a) the 2 polling outfits that have been largely on target (Rasmussen, Trafalgar) showing a strong comeback already (ahead of schedule), and (b) the desperation of the left in both (1a.) running senile Joe, and (1b) seeking help from rioters/BLM/antifa thugs, who are really just serving the role the KKK once did as the militant leftists support organ.

I don't think many Americans really want the violent socialists in charge. Their whole platform of taxes/less rights/more regulation/giveaways/pro CCP/violence is antithetical to thinking Americans who can get past any personality issues with the top of the ticket (Trump).
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Jbob04
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In reply to The Kraken • 7:46a, 7/24/20
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New World Ag said:
I won't vote for Trump. I'd definitely vote for Pence if he was candidate...likely any other Republican for that matter.

I will never understand this mindset. Trump has done more for this country than any other recent president going back to Reagan. I guess socialism and the destruction of our country via the liberal mindset is ok with you.
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Tony Franklins Other Shoe
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In reply to Jbob04 • 8:07a, 7/24/20
AG
Jbob04 said:
New World Ag said:
I won't vote for Trump. I'd definitely vote for Pence if he was candidate...likely any other Republican for that matter.

I will never understand this mindset. Trump has done more for this country than any other recent president going back to Reagan. I guess socialism and the destruction of our country via the liberal mindset is ok with you.
Me too. Gung ho for Pence or anyone else, but won't vote for Trump. I can understand not liking the guy for a multitude of reasons, but the Supreme Court is on the line for potentially the next 15-20 years.
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texsn95
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In reply to The Kraken • 8:10a, 7/24/20
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New World Ag said:
I won't vote for Trump. I'd definitely vote for Pence if he was candidate...likely any other Republican for that matter.
How sad. So pull the lever for the walking zombie who doesn't even know where he is or what he's running for. Go you.
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Trucker 96
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8:10a, 7/24/20
So you like his policies if you'd vote for Pence, just not his personality. That is incredibly flawed logic and shows how shallow and shortsighted folks can be
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texagbeliever
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In reply to will25u • 8:18a, 7/24/20
will25u said:
What jumps out to me in this poll is that it has 76% of republicans voting for Trump. Trump had 92% of the republican vote in 2016 which was higher than Romney and McCain. He has been polling very well with republican approval very high mid 90s i believe. So I have trouble believing a poll that assumes 75% support among republicans voting for Trump. Just doesn't seem plausible. I'd further argue that Trump has more liberal (classical) support than he had in 2016.

I'm not calling a landslide for Trump but these polls seem off.
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TxTarpon
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In reply to Guy on a Buffalo • 8:22a, 7/24/20
Sleepy Joe is too white and establishment to bring out the democRAT base like Hitlery did.
He is trying to steer from the "Trump is not an option" message to casting a vision of what his America will look like.

Trump needs to, and seems to, stick the looting, burning, commerce interruption, cancel culture BS to Biden and the democRAT party.

THAT is what will bring out the voters for Trump.
Much like we saw in 1968 when Nixon asked "Have we come this far for this?" (showing riots and burning).

You have to have stability to have commerce.
Instability breeds poverty and crime.

----------------------------------
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We will never give up our guns Steve, we don't care if there is a mass shooting every day of the week.
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A man with experience is not at the mercy of another man with an opinion.
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The Kraken
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In reply to Jbob04 • 9:38a, 7/24/20
AG
Jbob04 said:
New World Ag said:
I won't vote for Trump. I'd definitely vote for Pence if he was candidate...likely any other Republican for that matter.

I will never understand this mindset. Trump has done more for this country than any other recent president going back to Reagan. I guess socialism and the destruction of our country via the liberal mindset is ok with you.
I don't see Biden as a socialist and believe he will govern from the middle. I'll rather take my chances with him and get my Republican Party back instead of the Party of Trump.

His VP choice will be critical, though.
plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose
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Barnyard96
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In reply to The Kraken • 9:41a, 7/24/20
AG
New World Ag said:
Jbob04 said:
New World Ag said:
I won't vote for Trump. I'd definitely vote for Pence if he was candidate...likely any other Republican for that matter.

I will never understand this mindset. Trump has done more for this country than any other recent president going back to Reagan. I guess socialism and the destruction of our country via the liberal mindset is ok with you.
I don't see Biden as a socialist and believe he will govern from the middle. I'll rather take my chances with him and get my Republican Party back instead of the Party of Trump.

His VP choice will be critical, though.
The democrats are destroying their cities and defunding police forces. Biden is lining up with Bernie. Biden will be a puppet president.

No socialism anywhere in there?
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HarleySpoon
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9:51a, 7/24/20
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I know many folks like me that refused to vote for him last time now accept that the alternative is fascism and will do whatever it takes to vote for him this time.
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GreasenUSA
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In reply to The Kraken • 10:17p, 7/24/20
AG
New World Ag said:
Jbob04 said:
New World Ag said:
I won't vote for Trump. I'd definitely vote for Pence if he was candidate...likely any other Republican for that matter.

I will never understand this mindset. Trump has done more for this country than any other recent president going back to Reagan. I guess socialism and the destruction of our country via the liberal mindset is ok with you.
I don't see Biden as a socialist and believe he will govern from the middle. I'll rather take my chances with him and get my Republican Party back instead of the Party of Trump.

His VP choice will be critical, though.
You're the type of person I will be cursing for the rest of my life when we have a Dem in the White House, Senate turns blue, and the Supreme Court is lost for the next 25 years.
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HarleySpoon
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In reply to The Kraken • 2:04a, 7/25/20
AG
New World Ag said:
Jbob04 said:
New World Ag said:
I won't vote for Trump. I'd definitely vote for Pence if he was candidate...likely any other Republican for that matter.

I will never understand this mindset. Trump has done more for this country than any other recent president going back to Reagan. I guess socialism and the destruction of our country via the liberal mindset is ok with you.
I don't see Biden as a socialist and believe he will govern from the middle. I'll rather take my chances with him and get my Republican Party back instead of the Party of Trump.

His VP choice will be critical, though.
Don't blame anyone but yourself when his Supreme Court picks vote that seizing your 401K was legal.
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AnScAggie
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2:36a, 7/25/20
AG
What gives me hope is that in today's doxxing, Karen, cancel culture that anyone who answers an unsolicited phone call, text or email asking who they will vote for and says Trump is a brave soul. I think plenty of people who are voting for Trump are being secretive and saying they are undecided or supporting Biden to avoid any backlash.
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Faustus
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3:04a, 7/25/20
No confidence, just hope.
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Muy
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7:18a, 7/25/20
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Maybe if George Floyd had lived a life as a law abiding citizen who wasn't a druggie who held a pregnant MOM at gunpoint, he wouldn't have been on the path to an early death?

Just maybe.
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will25u
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11:38a, 7/25/20
Rasmussen backing up their data.

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The Kraken
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In reply to HarleySpoon • 12:02p, 7/25/20
AG
Quote:
Don't blame anyone but yourself when his Supreme Court picks vote that seizing your 401K was legal.
I don't see that happening.
plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose
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Trucker 96
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In reply to The Kraken • 12:08p, 7/25/20
It won't be a direct grab. But they'll decide that if you are wealthy enough (which will be a low bar), it will start getting hit with some special taxes. The govt is great at using the jealously of the financially illiterate majority to take from the "rich". And again, most americans don't have jack squat saved, so "rich" will be be a small minority
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will25u
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2:10p, 7/25/20
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Keller6Ag91
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In reply to Guy on a Buffalo • 2:17p, 7/25/20
AG
raging_agaholic said:
I want to believe that the majority of the polls that are being reported are bogus. It defies logic, doesn't make any sense, and generally I just don't believe that Trump is going to lose to Biden in November. If you agree with me, what give you reason to disbelieve the media and current polling numbers?


Because the pro-someone vote typically wins over the anti-someone vote.
Gig'Em and God Bless,

JB'91
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