OK, so we now have a reason to be confident.

Other than the polls there is very little for the Dems to be confident about. Economy was strong pre-Covid. It has recovered well. No wars anywhere. Unemployment, etc. all favor Trump and re-election. Biden has never been popular or exciting as a candidate. He was totally dead until everyone dropped out to avoid Bernie winning. Kamala couldn't even make it to Iowa. Biden has obviously lost it mentally and no one can credibly say he is fit for the office. It's the stretch run of a campaign and he is literally hiding in a basement. When he does come out, he looks old, weak and can't even read of a teleprompter. If he was a Republican the media would destroy him. But, he certainly does not look like someone who should be commander in chief or the most powerful person in the world.

Riots and BLM are out of favor. Trump polls better on those issues. Same with the economy.

The only thing keeping Biden alive is the media and the general anti-Trump sentiment that exists. Normally an anti-vote isn't enough to win an election. Trump voters are motivated and excited. Almost no Biden voters are motivated by Biden. It's only to beat Trump or implement the AOC/Bernie socialism. Will that be enough to turn out the vote?

Can't figure out whether Covid is really a big factor on how people vote or not. By now, people should see that the whole world is dealing with it and Biden wouldn't have done anything different/better to somehow control it. If anything, it would have been worse and we'd have had total lockdown.

But, I still have too many days where I am not confident. Hopefully, Biden is as bad tomorrow night as many expect.

nortex97 said:

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538 hedging in late September about their forecasts; "The EC is biased for Republicans, darn those founders."

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What do they put on Trump's face?

Quote:

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In fact, Biden's chances only become pretty certain if he wins by more than 5 points nationally, showing just how large the Republicans' Electoral College edge might be in 2020. And even then, Biden's lead has to get up to 9 points before there are no simulations in our forecast in which Trump wins. Meanwhile, Trump is almost guaranteed to win the election if he wins the national popular vote, and he actually wins a majority in the Electoral College while losing the popular vote (12 percent) more often than when he wins the most votes (10 percent).

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Is Nate just making this crap up as he goes along? This statement is coming 34 days out? He couldn't reach that conclusion before now? (With which I don't agree, BTW.)

Counterpoint said:

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How do fake polls help a candidate though? If polls falsely say a candidate is winning bigly, supporters might be less likely to vote and supporters of the other candidate might be more likely to vote.

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In this election, I think it is to build a fake bread crumb trail so when the manufactured votes come in through the mail, the Democrats can say "see, we told you Biden was going to win".

Bueno

Ron Paul's supporters would always flood post debate polls and he would show up as the winner. We see how well that translated.

AZ is polled to a tie;

https://amgreatness.com/2020/09/29/trump-and-biden-tied-in-new-arizona-poll/

Quote:

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Donald Trump and Joe Biden are tied in Arizona according to a new survey by Susquehanna Polling and Research for the Center for American Greatness.
The phone survey of 500 likely voters conducted September 25-28 showed Biden with 47 percent and Trump with 47 percent support, with a 4.3 percent margin of error. The poll also showed Trump with a better favorability rating than Biden (44 percent-40 percent).
This has been a recurring theme seen in recent polls of Florida, Nevada, and Wisconsin: Joe Biden is seen less favorably than Donald Trump. This likely ties to the lower enthusiasm evidenced by Biden supporters in other polls which may lead to a turnout problem.
The poll also provides further evidence that President Trump is running stronger with Hispanics this year than he did in 2016. The Center for American Greatness polls of Florida and Nevada both show the same phenomenon. The poll of Arizona shows Trump with support from 40 percent of Hispanic voters versus 31 percent in 2016.
The top-two issues for the Arizona poll's respondents were jobs and the economy and the government's handling of the coronavirus pandemic. Respondents split along party lines on both issues. Strengthening the economy and the jobs market is a top-two issue for 64 percent of Trump voters versus just 26 percent of Biden voters. The pandemic response is a top-two issue among 54 percent of Biden voters as opposed to 14 percent of Trump voters.
There's also some qualified good news for Republican Senator Martha McSally. She's running three points behind Mark Kelly (48 percent-45 percent), but that's an improvement over other surveys conducted earlier in September.

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WTF?

barnyard1996 said:

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WTF?

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That seems shady AF.

barnyard1996 said:

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WTF?

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Wrong thread!

The Rasmussen polls tend to jump around a lot day-to-day for whatever reason (it will jump the other way 5-7 points next time). I think they like that it generates clicks/headlines.

nortex97 said:

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538 hedging in late September about their forecasts; "The EC is biased for Republicans, darn those founders."

Quote:

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In fact, Biden's chances only become pretty certain if he wins by more than 5 points nationally, showing just how large the Republicans' Electoral College edge might be in 2020. And even then, Biden's lead has to get up to 9 points before there are no simulations in our forecast in which Trump wins. Meanwhile, Trump is almost guaranteed to win the election if he wins the national popular vote, and he actually wins a majority in the Electoral College while losing the popular vote (12 percent) more often than when he wins the most votes (10 percent).

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That just seems like a statement of objective facts that anyone attempting to forecast the election, or even discuss the range of possible outcomes, would have to account for.

I have none
Biden wins

gambochaman said:

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I have none
Biden wins

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100% sure?

Who did you pick in 2016? We're you 100% then too?

gambochaman said:

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I have none
Biden wins

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This is where I am too.

Yeah I don't have any confidence either. The pendulum is going to swing hard left. Just hope the gop keeps the senate.

What gives me confidence in nov?

Biden's incompetence. It ain't over folks.

Why would any of you think his chances lessened after last night?

I've not had confidence since May. But I'm surrounded by leftists and libs so that probably influences my outlook heavily.

Well Trump hasn't given up. He's back at a rally in Duluth, MN tonight.

For those of you losing confidence, let me ask you a couple questions:

1) did you vote for Dole, George W, McCain or Romney?
2) What level of excitement did you have for any of the above?
3) did you vote for Trump in 2016?
4) if so, how excited were you in 2016, or did you do it quietly with some reluctance b/c you hated HRC?
5) How ready, and excited, are you to vote for Trump this year compared to any other prior vote?
6) What causes your depression or pessimism about this election?
7) Is it anything other than the polls?

If #7 is no, then relax. Polls today show South Carolina is basically tied. If you believe that, then yes Biden will win. But, more realistically it is the case that these polls are all way off. Given the last 6 months of Corona bros and BLM, how many people feel comfortable publicly saying "I'm for Trump"? Most Trump voters would walk barefoot over glass to vote. No one feels the same about Biden. He motivates no one. The Dem vote is 99% anti-Trump.

Don't trust the polls. Don't lose faith. Get out and vote. It's all about turnout.

Yes, there are a lot of bad polls out there (as in, low quality), and the net picture is 'Biden is winning' among the propaganda outlets, but Trump is now actually +0.3 vs. where he was in 2016 in battleground states. And that's even with trash polls like Fox, CNN, Yougov etc.

He actually had a pretty rough September in the polls, but people are now finally making their minds up about whether to go 'green new deal/china/dementia Joe' or Keep America Great.

I don't know why you're getting you hopes up. I'm afraid Biden runs away with it. Not supporting him, that's just what I see. The republicans have to hold the senate. That's my only focus right now. This board will go nuts when this is all said and done. Get ready for Kamala. I hope the R's run a good candidate in 2024. Someone under the age of 70 and a female would be good for business.

I, unfortunately, agree... Trump will not be re-elected. Sad state of affairs when somebody as clueless as Biden can be put in office before allowing Trump another term.

BTHOB said:

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I, unfortunately, agree... Trump will not be re-elected. Sad state of affairs when somebody as clueless as Biden can be put in office before allowing Trump another term.

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2016 says hello.

What a bunch of quitters.

I think the word you're looking for is "realists." FYI - I'm still voting for Trump, so I haven't "quit." However, I am not deluded enough to believe he will be re-elected.

There was no way Hillary was going to be elected (despite what the polls said). She was WAY too unlikeable. But, Biden would have beaten Trump if he were the nominee in 2016 and he will beat Trump this time. Again, it's a sad state of affairs.

barnyard1996 said:

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BTHOB said:

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I, unfortunately, agree... Trump will not be re-elected. Sad state of affairs when somebody as clueless as Biden can be put in office before allowing Trump another term.

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2016 says hello.

What a bunch of quitters.

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Right!

BTHOB said:

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I think the word you're looking for is "realists." FYI - I'm still voting for Trump, so I haven't "quit." However, I am not deluded enough to believe he will be re-elected.

There was no way Hillary was going to be elected (despite what the polls said). She was WAY too unlikeable. But, Biden would have beaten Trump if he were the nominee in 2016 and he will beat Trump this time. Again, it's a sad state of affairs.

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So you are certain the Biden will win then? How can you be certain?

aginlakeway said:

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BTHOB said:

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I think the word you're looking for is "realists." FYI - I'm still voting for Trump, so I haven't "quit." However, I am not deluded enough to believe he will be re-elected.

There was no way Hillary was going to be elected (despite what the polls said). She was WAY too unlikeable. But, Biden would have beaten Trump if he were the nominee in 2016 and he will beat Trump this time. Again, it's a sad state of affairs.

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So you are certain the Biden will win then? How can you be certain?

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Nobody can be certain of the future. I am posting my opinion on the internet.

Again, it helps to be a realist. Are you certain that Trump will win? (Hopefully, the answer is no because: nobody can be certain of the future).