What gives you confidence for November?

148,098 Views | 1681 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by Tone2002
Barnyard96
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Trump +7 in Texas.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/tx/texas_trump_vs_biden-6818.html

I bet he wins north of +10
will25u
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nortex97
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Boom. Trafalgar, again, was the best 2016 pollster/got it right.
Barnyard96
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Rasmussen 51% approval today.
texaglurkerguy
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He'll have to stave off Biden flipping PA, FL, MI, OH, NC, and WI. Florida in particular is paramount, he loses them and that's a 58 electoral vote swing out of the 77 he won by.
Barnyard96
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This is the first election in a while where the Republican candidate can lose Florida and still win.
nortex97
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texaglurkerguy said:

He'll have to stave off Biden flipping PA, FL, MI, OH, NC, and WI. Florida in particular is paramount, he loses them and that's a 58 electoral vote swing out of the 77 he won by.
Biden's pulling hispanics at a rate of 20 percent less than HRC was in Florida, I read, and his Florida campaign manager (and one of his VP candidates) praising Cuba/Castro hasn't helped him there at all. I expect Biden will actually lose Florida by more than HRC did.

I think NC's over at this point, as is Ohio. PA, MI, WI, and MN, as well as AZ are the real battlegrounds. Frankly, I think Trump sweeps all of those, unless PA goes crazy with voter fraud.
texaglurkerguy
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Florida always seems to be a coin flip, no idea if it holds but overall Trump has trailed Biden there in the polls most of the year. I think part of why the Dems coalesced around Biden despite him having little enthusiasm was because he represents their best chance at flipping the midwest states. I think he flips PA and MI but not OH or NC. My prediction is whoever wins Florida wins the election, but that's not exactly a hot take.
nortex97
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Nothing in politics remains a constant forever, but it's been a coin flip for 20 years now so fair enough. Right now we're battling the PR Socialist imports on the east side of the state.

I think Trump overall does better with Latino/Hispanic Florida voters this year, but also black turnout is depressed vs. the previous 3 cycles (zero enthusiasm for Biden/Kamala).

The old white folks/retiree vote (In Florida) will be interesting in 2024 with all of the NY/yankee recent migrations/those to come over the next 4 years. Hopefully, the Dems keep going fully Obama-unhinged.
will25u
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I am guessing these people are lined up on the route that "The Beast" will travel in Scranton, PA. There is definitely enthusiasm on President Trumps side.



and...

bmks270
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nortex97 said:

texaglurkerguy said:

He'll have to stave off Biden flipping PA, FL, MI, OH, NC, and WI. Florida in particular is paramount, he loses them and that's a 58 electoral vote swing out of the 77 he won by.
Biden's pulling hispanics at a rate of 20 percent less than HRC was in Florida, I read, and his Florida campaign manager (and one of his VP candidates) praising Cuba/Castro hasn't helped him there at all. I expect Biden will actually lose Florida by more than HRC did.

I think NC's over at this point, as is Ohio. PA, MI, WI, and MN, as well as AZ are the real battlegrounds. Frankly, I think Trump sweeps all of those, unless PA goes crazy with voter fraud.


Broward County FL might cause the state to go for Biden. They were finding "mail in" ballots two days after 2018 midterm polls closed.
oldarmy1
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barnyard1996 said:

Trump +7 in Texas.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/tx/texas_trump_vs_biden-6818.html

I bet he wins north of +10
If that's even remotely true then Texas is safe. No convention bounce and a move up? Yeah buddy.
will25u
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EKUAg
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Joad
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I feel good, because Trump still has family and employees who have not been arrested. Doesn't he?
Mostly Sunny Disposition
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Peer of mine (Same company) in Chicago. Voted for Obama twice and didn't vote for either candidate in 2016.


ttha_aggie_09
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Joad said:

I feel good, because Trump still has family and employees who have not been arrested. Doesn't he?
Your sad, stupid post gives me confidence.
titan
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S

That's big if true. Many in WI very mad at the Democrats now, and they all know Biden is eager to sacrifice the economy for some global agenda again like Obama.

Milwaukee's leadership allowed lawlessness something like the west coast.

So with some strong work by Trump, he may be able to repeat 2016.
FamousAgg
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A well stocked gun safe and pantry gives me confidence.
Joad
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I know it is sad, but I have confidence there will be more arrests. Drain the swamp, lol.
Barnyard96
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Latest PA poll.



Party ID

tremble
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If PA is at 4% with Biden running the Dems should be pretty tense at this point.
BigHitterDaLama
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Just wait until the Republican Convention coming up.
Barnyard96
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tremble said:

If PA is at 4% with Biden running the Dems should be pretty tense at this point.
The Party ID I posted above is in-line with the voter registration percentages in PA.

This election is going to be decided by enthusiasm and turnout.
will25u
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will25u
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To go along with my last post.

bmks270
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The Villages is leans conservative, by a lot.
Barnyard96
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Trucker 96
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My confidence grew significantly once Biden chose Kneepads the Unpopular for his running mate.
Barnyard96
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https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/politics/trump-reelection-odds-improve-biden-inspiring-convention-speech/

Quote:

Trump's Reelection Odds Improve to +104 in Spite of Biden's Inspiring Convention Speech

BigRobSA
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barnyard1996 said:


Bold move for Trump to imitate Obama's ears.
"The Declaration of Independence and the US Constitution was never designed to restrain the people. It was designed to restrain the government."
will25u
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Barnyard96
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will25u said:


Yet they post this poll on RCP with Biden +10 nationally because of a massive oversampling of Dems.
will25u
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will25u
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