What gives you confidence for November?

148,141 Views | 1681 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by Tone2002
aggiehawg
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Barnyard96
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aggiehawg said:

fightingfarmer09 said:

I need some sunshine pumping some days.

I have stated numerous times this is the most bizarre election cycle I've ever witnessed or read about. Biden is literally non existent on the trail, but will still have a strong turnout.

We have a MASSIVE echo chamber in Twitter that skews the news and general opinion.

There is a strong case to the idea many EV will end up being Election Day voters that had their mind made up.
It is a bizarre election cycle, I'll grant you that. Why the pollsters aren't even trying to adapt their methodology is beyond me. This is especially true after getting it sooooo wrong in 2016. Insane.
What punishment do they receive for getting it wrong?
aggiehawg
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Quote:

What punishment do they receive for getting it wrong?
Loss of clients? You know they get paid for these polls by news agencies, right?
Barnyard96
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aggiehawg said:

Quote:

What punishment do they receive for getting it wrong?
Loss of clients? You know they get paid for these polls by news agencies, right?
And the news agencies are in the tank for who????
aggiehawg
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barnyard1996 said:

aggiehawg said:

Quote:

What punishment do they receive for getting it wrong?
Loss of clients? You know they get paid for these polls by news agencies, right?
And the news agencies are in the tank for who????
They can still lie without wasting the money on lying polls? Cost/benefit analysis but that's probably just me.
Barnyard96
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aggiehawg said:

barnyard1996 said:

aggiehawg said:

Quote:

What punishment do they receive for getting it wrong?
Loss of clients? You know they get paid for these polls by news agencies, right?
And the news agencies are in the tank for who????
They can still lie without wasting the money on lying polls? Cost/benefit analysis but that's probably just me.
In the sermon today, preacher said the devil's best lies are half-truths.
aggiehawg
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Rockdoc
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Massive! Haha
aggiehawg
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Quote:

Harris urged the crowd of about 50 to vote early, even if there are long lines like the one outside the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections on the first day of weekend early voting.

"We will remind our friends and our neighbors and our coworkers that they are not alone," Harris said. "We are in this together. We are going to stand in those lines and do whatever it takes as a community to get things done."
LINK
AgResearch
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Unplanned stop in Maine and he outdraws a planned Biden event. Hundreds of Trumps supporters there.




fightingfarmer09
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What is the point of the campaign stops for Biden/Harris?

Are they being live streamed for other consumption? Seems like a small crowd event that drew 100k+ regularly would still be noteworthy.

But her spending 3-4 hours of a campaign day for 50 folks seems like a terrible investment.

If I wanted to avoid the in person rallies they should focus on GOTV encouragement at different HQ locations.

This seems like phoning it in.
Barnyard96
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Always_Right
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fightingfarmer09 said:

What is the point of the campaign stops for Biden/Harris?

Are they being live streamed for other consumption? Seems like a small crowd event that drew 100k+ regularly would still be noteworthy.

But her spending 3-4 hours of a campaign day for 50 folks seems like a terrible investment.

If I wanted to avoid the in person rallies they should focus on GOTV encouragement at different HQ locations.

This seems like phoning it in.
Sounds like they either believe they have it in the bag or they know they have no chance....I'm hoping for the latter.
Barnyard96
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Great_I_Am said:

fightingfarmer09 said:

What is the point of the campaign stops for Biden/Harris?

Are they being live streamed for other consumption? Seems like a small crowd event that drew 100k+ regularly would still be noteworthy.

But her spending 3-4 hours of a campaign day for 50 folks seems like a terrible investment.

If I wanted to avoid the in person rallies they should focus on GOTV encouragement at different HQ locations.

This seems like phoning it in.
Sounds like they either believe they have it in the bag or they know they have no chance....I'm hoping for the latter.
Joe is a terrible candidate who only makes things worse when he talks in public.
aggiehawg
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Great_I_Am said:

fightingfarmer09 said:

What is the point of the campaign stops for Biden/Harris?

Are they being live streamed for other consumption? Seems like a small crowd event that drew 100k+ regularly would still be noteworthy.

But her spending 3-4 hours of a campaign day for 50 folks seems like a terrible investment.

If I wanted to avoid the in person rallies they should focus on GOTV encouragement at different HQ locations.

This seems like phoning it in.
Sounds like they either believe they have it in the bag or they know they have no chance....I'm hoping for the latter.
I don't think people on the Biden campaign are being honest with Jill, Joe or Kamala.
Readzilla
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barnyard1996 said:




Is New Hampshire actually in play? Hasn't been red since 2000 and only lost by 3k votes in 16. I don't think trump will win it. But him having a rally seems he thinks he can win it.
FbgTxAg
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Readzilla said:

barnyard1996 said:




Is New Hampshire actually in play? Hasn't been red since 2000 and only lost by 3k votes in 16. I don't think trump will win it. But him having a rally seems he thinks he can win it.


"Live Free Or Die" is the State motto. Pretty appropriate motto for 2020.
Barnyard96
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Readzilla said:

barnyard1996 said:




Is New Hampshire actually in play? Hasn't been red since 2000 and only lost by 3k votes in 16. I don't think trump will win it. But him having a rally seems he thinks he can win it.
This is a turnout election. If you gauge possibilities by enthusiasm, then it is in play.

If you gauge by "we asked 857 likely voters and then weighted it based on our biased assumptions" then it is probably not in play.
bmks270
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AgResearch said:

Unplanned stop in Maine and he outdraws a planned Biden event. Hundreds of Trumps supporters there.







And not just that it wasn't scheduled, it's that this was small town, and Biden can't even get 100 people in huge cities.
bmks270
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aggiehawg said:






I doubt that is 200 people. Maybe 120.
Seven Costanza
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What does "signups" actually mean? Number of people that signed up to attend the event or number of people that registered to vote during the event?
Barnyard96
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Seven Costanza said:

What does "signups" actually mean? Number of people that signed up to attend the event or number of people that registered to vote during the event?
Signup to attend rally.
JAG03
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barnyard1996 said:

Seven Costanza said:

What does "signups" actually mean? Number of people that signed up to attend the event or number of people that registered to vote during the event?
Signup to attend rally.


Does it mean they signed up before and may or may not have attended or do they sign up at the rally and are actually there?
aginlakeway
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Dennis and Claire Fuller of Morrill "dropped everything and came" when they heard about the relatively impromptu presidential visit, Dennis Fuller said.
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
Barnyard96
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JAG03 said:

barnyard1996 said:

Seven Costanza said:

What does "signups" actually mean? Number of people that signed up to attend the event or number of people that registered to vote during the event?
Signup to attend rally.


Does it mean they signed up before and may or may not have attended or do they sign up at the rally and are actually there?
This has been asked and I have never really gotten an answer.
Ukraine Gas Expert
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I want to believe the sign up numbers, but after the Tulsa fallout I don't know. They also have sites out there for people to share and falsify sign up data.

Not being a Debbie downer, because real people are showing up at the rallies unlike biden. The sign up thing though is something that seems hackable to crazy jerks.
Ukraine Gas Expert
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https://www.donaldjtrump.com/events/?error=notfound

Anyone can sign up and request tickets, but I don't know where the summary or breakdown of supports comes in to play. Hopefully it's actual attendees and not just random computer forms people do online.
aginlakeway
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Https://bangordailynews.com/2020/10/25/politics/trump-supporters-dropped-everything-and-came-when-they-heard-about-presidents-visit/
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
fightingfarmer09
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JAG03 said:

barnyard1996 said:

Seven Costanza said:

What does "signups" actually mean? Number of people that signed up to attend the event or number of people that registered to vote during the event?
Signup to attend rally.


Does it mean they signed up before and may or may not have attended or do they sign up at the rally and are actually there?


I think they are only reporting signups that have been cross referenced by voter rolls.

Most trolls are going to enter their personal information for a political group, let alone massive numbers.

I do think they are skewed though.

Example: at work we would have an event and cross reference that with known customers and proven industry contact lists. We would only report verified numbers as our contact statistics.

ETA: if they had the ground game, you could pull aside a subset of the attendees and do exit polls on the spot too.
Barnyard96
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aggiehawg
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WOW!!!!
Reservoir Dog
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This is unreal... LOVE!!!!
Always_Right
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The only outlier is the polls, everything else points to a Trump landslide.
Prosperdick
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barnyard1996 said:



At around 34 seconds banner reads BIDEN'S LAPTOP MATTERS!

That's gold Jerry, gold!
will25u
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Updated Spreadsheet

10/25 Daily Update 1/2(There are 2 updates usually a day)

Battleground States Daily Lean(Vote lead):

+ = Republican Lead
- = Democrat Lead

Arizona: -4,781(-65,563)
Florida: +45,653(-203,835)
Iowa: +2,894(-62,254)
Michigan: 0(-96,835)
Minnesota: -2,917(-204,618)
Nevada: -5,040(-21,387)
North Carolina: +6,768(-174,211)
Pennsylvania: 0(-533,916)
Texas: +108,933(+877,477)
Wisconsin: +9,573(-40,268)

All States: +209,208(-4,805,768)

EC: 347(D)-191(R)
 
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