Can you change the font too?will25u said:Yes, thank you.Legal Custodian said:
The first number is the change in votes received since the last update. For example, Arizona had 4,108 more republican votes than democratic votes since the last update. Then the number in parentheses is the total, so even though the R's had 4,108 more votes, they are still 61,431 votes behind the D's in returned ballots in total.
As an aside. I will try to today reverse the dates so the most recent date is to the far left, with the older dates to the right.
What gives you confidence for November?
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Last: 3 yr ago by Tone2002
Pennsylvania is really looking like a tough pull. I believe they just started early voting yesterday, so hopefully the "Hate Trump" voters are now mostly banked.will25u said:
Updated Spreadsheet
10/27 Daily Update 1/2(There are 2 updates usually a day)
Oklahoma finally with an update which moves the EC votes over to the Republican side.
Battleground States Daily Lean(Vote lead):
+ = Republican Lead
- = Democrat Lead
Arizona: +4,108(-61,431)
Florida: +5,800(-172,722)
Iowa: 119(-62,135)
Michigan: -5,848(-105,202)
Minnesota: -1,447(-211,389)
Nevada: -3,216(-21,968)
North Carolina: -1,472(-174,908)
Pennsylvania: -84,449(-618,365)
Texas: +72(+918,153)
Wisconsin: -1,877(-49,980)
All States: -438,038(-5,220,563)
EC: 340(D)-198(R)
Pennsylvania will have around 6 Million ballots total. A 600,000 lead is pretty damn significant.
The greatest argument ever made against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter.
You need to take TargetSmart data with a grain of salt. It is a model, NOT real numbers.FbgTxAg said:Pennsylvania is really looking like a tough pull. I believe they just started early voting yesterday, so hopefully the "Hate Trump" voters are now mostly banked.will25u said:
Updated Spreadsheet
10/27 Daily Update 1/2(There are 2 updates usually a day)
Oklahoma finally with an update which moves the EC votes over to the Republican side.
Battleground States Daily Lean(Vote lead):
+ = Republican Lead
- = Democrat Lead
Arizona: +4,108(-61,431)
Florida: +5,800(-172,722)
Iowa: 119(-62,135)
Michigan: -5,848(-105,202)
Minnesota: -1,447(-211,389)
Nevada: -3,216(-21,968)
North Carolina: -1,472(-174,908)
Pennsylvania: -84,449(-618,365)
Texas: +72(+918,153)
Wisconsin: -1,877(-49,980)
All States: -438,038(-5,220,563)
EC: 340(D)-198(R)
Pennsylvania will have around 6 Million ballots total. A 600,000 lead is pretty damn significant
Penn is not needed for a President Trump 2.0. If he wins AZ, NC, FL, he just needs one rust belt state and he should just about have it wrapped up.
This election will come down to these 4 states. MN, MI, PENN, WI. Win one, and he wins.
Just for you...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JMINWKfgSXuZXeE2h4U-7APGQWHdvt8tgukKHHae-jQ
ETA: I would have put WINGDING, but Google doesn't have it.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JMINWKfgSXuZXeE2h4U-7APGQWHdvt8tgukKHHae-jQ
ETA: I would have put WINGDING, but Google doesn't have it.
With a few exceptions, all early voting in PA is done by mail (at least that's what the website indicates). Today is the last day to request ballots for all mail and absentee voting in PA.
PA reports by party so we should know soon how many D's and R's requested mail ballots.
Then its all about election day where Trump support is expected to show in mass.
PA reports by party so we should know soon how many D's and R's requested mail ballots.
Then its all about election day where Trump support is expected to show in mass.
Inaccurate. It is not a dire situation. PA doesn't have in person early voting. I watched portions of Trump's three ralli...er "peaceful protests" in PA yesterday. He asked the crowds who had already voted. Small roar. Then he asked who was going to vote on election day? Very loud roar.Quote:
Pennsylvania is really looking like a tough pull. I believe they just started early voting yesterday, so hopefully the "Hate Trump" voters are now mostly banked.
Pennsylvania will have around 6 Million ballots total. A 600,000 lead is pretty damn significant.
In this scenario, if he were to win MIN or WI, he must also win both ME 2 and NE 2, which is not a given. Otherwise, it's a 269 tie.will25u said:You need to take TargetSmart data with a grain of salt. It is a model, NOT real numbers.FbgTxAg said:Pennsylvania is really looking like a tough pull. I believe they just started early voting yesterday, so hopefully the "Hate Trump" voters are now mostly banked.will25u said:
Updated Spreadsheet
10/27 Daily Update 1/2(There are 2 updates usually a day)
Oklahoma finally with an update which moves the EC votes over to the Republican side.
Battleground States Daily Lean(Vote lead):
+ = Republican Lead
- = Democrat Lead
Arizona: +4,108(-61,431)
Florida: +5,800(-172,722)
Iowa: 119(-62,135)
Michigan: -5,848(-105,202)
Minnesota: -1,447(-211,389)
Nevada: -3,216(-21,968)
North Carolina: -1,472(-174,908)
Pennsylvania: -84,449(-618,365)
Texas: +72(+918,153)
Wisconsin: -1,877(-49,980)
All States: -438,038(-5,220,563)
EC: 340(D)-198(R)
Pennsylvania will have around 6 Million ballots total. A 600,000 lead is pretty damn significant
Penn is not needed for a President Trump 2.0. If he wins AZ, NC, FL, he just needs one rust belt state and he should just about have it wrapped up.
This election will come down to these 4 states. MN, MI, PENN, WI. Win one, and he wins.
He wins a tie.centexaggie2010 said:In this scenario, if he were to win MIN or WI, he must also win both ME 2 and NE 2, which is not a given. Otherwise, it's a 269 tie.will25u said:You need to take TargetSmart data with a grain of salt. It is a model, NOT real numbers.FbgTxAg said:Pennsylvania is really looking like a tough pull. I believe they just started early voting yesterday, so hopefully the "Hate Trump" voters are now mostly banked.will25u said:
Updated Spreadsheet
10/27 Daily Update 1/2(There are 2 updates usually a day)
Oklahoma finally with an update which moves the EC votes over to the Republican side.
Battleground States Daily Lean(Vote lead):
+ = Republican Lead
- = Democrat Lead
Arizona: +4,108(-61,431)
Florida: +5,800(-172,722)
Iowa: 119(-62,135)
Michigan: -5,848(-105,202)
Minnesota: -1,447(-211,389)
Nevada: -3,216(-21,968)
North Carolina: -1,472(-174,908)
Pennsylvania: -84,449(-618,365)
Texas: +72(+918,153)
Wisconsin: -1,877(-49,980)
All States: -438,038(-5,220,563)
EC: 340(D)-198(R)
Pennsylvania will have around 6 Million ballots total. A 600,000 lead is pretty damn significant
Penn is not needed for a President Trump 2.0. If he wins AZ, NC, FL, he just needs one rust belt state and he should just about have it wrapped up.
This election will come down to these 4 states. MN, MI, PENN, WI. Win one, and he wins.
The greatest argument ever made against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter.
If you are referring to the House voting, keep in mind it will be the new House that is sworn in the first week of January 2021.Quote:
He wins a tie.
With Pelosi and AOC now on every House ballot by virtue of their pronouncements of packing the Court and Pelosi remaining Speaker, that could change things...for the better.
Each State delegation casts a vote as a block, not one vote per rep. Favors Trump.
I understand that. My point was that maybe more state delegations will increase the number of Rs in it. I never really believed the House would flip back to the GOP before. Now I'm not so sure of that.1872walker said:
Each State delegation casts a vote as a block, not one vote per rep. Favors Trump.
At the very least, I think some Dem seats definitely flip to GOP eroding, if not erasing Pelosi's control.
1872walker
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Quote:
10/27 Daily Update 1/2(There are 2 updates usually a day)
Battleground States Daily Lean(Vote lead):
+ = Republican Lead
- = Democrat Lead
Arizona: +4,108(-61,431)
Florida: +5,800(-172,722)
Iowa: 119(-62,135)
Michigan: -5,848(-105,202)
Minnesota: -1,447(-211,389)
Nevada: -3,216(-21,968)
North Carolina: -1,472(-174,908)
Pennsylvania: -84,449(-618,365)
Texas: +72(+918,153)
Wisconsin: -1,877(-49,980)
If you extrapolate The most recent update x 6.5 days between today and election day, here is where we'd be:
AZ - Trump would be down 35k
FL - Trump would be down 135k
Iowa - Trump would be down 60k
Mich - Trump would be down 140k
Minn - Trump would be down 220k
Nev - Trump would be down 40k
NC - Trump would be down 185k
Penn - Trump would be 1,100k
Texas - Trump would be up 920k
Wisc - Trump would be down 65k
I expect him to win the Election Day votes across the board, but not by as much as some are modeling. They may not be as scared of covid, but there are a ton of enthusiastic Trump voters who couldn't wait to vote for him.
I think he overtakes Florida, NC, Iowa, AZ, Wisc, NC
I don't thin he can really take Penn or Minn
In this case, it comes down to Nevada and Michigan - he has to pull one of them to win
According to the will25u's spreadsheet, the only states the democrats have a bigger lead (%) than they do in Pennsylvania are:
California
Vermont
Delaware
Maryland
Rhode Island
Hawaii
That's not too promising. But damn near every other battleground state is much closer than I expected. Especially if Democrats are supposed to dominate early voting.
Wisconsin - Dems lead by 3.84%
Michigan - Dems lead by 4.88%
N. Carolina - Dems lead by 5.59%
Ohio - Repubs lead by 3.92%
Arizona - Dems lead by 3.87%
Nevada - Dems lead by 2.95%
The issue is that this counts just returned ballots who are affiliated with a party. There are still 5.8million ballots nationwide who are considered unaffiliated. I would like to see a comparison between 2016 and 2020, but have no idea where I could find it. I'll do some searching and report back.
California
Vermont
Delaware
Maryland
Rhode Island
Hawaii
That's not too promising. But damn near every other battleground state is much closer than I expected. Especially if Democrats are supposed to dominate early voting.
Wisconsin - Dems lead by 3.84%
Michigan - Dems lead by 4.88%
N. Carolina - Dems lead by 5.59%
Ohio - Repubs lead by 3.92%
Arizona - Dems lead by 3.87%
Nevada - Dems lead by 2.95%
The issue is that this counts just returned ballots who are affiliated with a party. There are still 5.8million ballots nationwide who are considered unaffiliated. I would like to see a comparison between 2016 and 2020, but have no idea where I could find it. I'll do some searching and report back.
Pennsylvania has no in person early voting (all mail in).
The Trump support on election day in PA will be massive.
The Trump support on election day in PA will be massive.
barnyard1996 said:
Pennsylvania has no in person early voting (all mail in).
The Trump support on election day in PA will be massive.
That's great info, I missed that. Certainly does multiply whatever the Election Day factor will be in that state.
My greatest concern is that the ED factor just isn't as big overall as people expect. I know so many Pro Trump people IRL and all of them have already voted
This...the doomers are looking at mail in ballots ONLY. The same mail in ballots that Dems have pushed for months, while Trump has pushed for in person voting (which hasn't started yet in PA).barnyard1996 said:
Pennsylvania has no in person early voting (all mail in).
The Trump support on election day in PA will be massive.
Amazing the number of times we have to keep repeating that on thread after thread, isn't it?barnyard1996 said:
Pennsylvania has no in person early voting (all mail in).
The Trump support on election day in PA will be massive.
Today is the last day to request ballot by mail in PA. Targersmart will report by party how many ballots have been requested. Should give us something to talk about for election day turnout.
It means Beto will win PAJAG03 said:
Sorry if this is a repeat question but the numbers for Pennsylvania are they requested ballots or returned ballots?
Assuming Trump is going to match his PA share from 2016 AND only 20% of his supporters vote early, he only needs 600K votes before Election Day.
Not sure if 20% is correct or not, but seemed reasonable. BTW, he already has 354K in republican early votes.
Not sure if 20% is correct or not, but seemed reasonable. BTW, he already has 354K in republican early votes.
Trump has Florida and North Carolina in the bag. Also confident he takes WI. I have PA, MI, and AZ as maybe, he only needs one of them to win it all which I'm sure he will win at least one
I understand that, but I would rather it not have to come down to that.FbgTxAg said:He wins a tie.centexaggie2010 said:In this scenario, if he were to win MIN or WI, he must also win both ME 2 and NE 2, which is not a given. Otherwise, it's a 269 tie.will25u said:You need to take TargetSmart data with a grain of salt. It is a model, NOT real numbers.FbgTxAg said:Pennsylvania is really looking like a tough pull. I believe they just started early voting yesterday, so hopefully the "Hate Trump" voters are now mostly banked.will25u said:
Updated Spreadsheet
10/27 Daily Update 1/2(There are 2 updates usually a day)
Oklahoma finally with an update which moves the EC votes over to the Republican side.
Battleground States Daily Lean(Vote lead):
+ = Republican Lead
- = Democrat Lead
Arizona: +4,108(-61,431)
Florida: +5,800(-172,722)
Iowa: 119(-62,135)
Michigan: -5,848(-105,202)
Minnesota: -1,447(-211,389)
Nevada: -3,216(-21,968)
North Carolina: -1,472(-174,908)
Pennsylvania: -84,449(-618,365)
Texas: +72(+918,153)
Wisconsin: -1,877(-49,980)
All States: -438,038(-5,220,563)
EC: 340(D)-198(R)
Pennsylvania will have around 6 Million ballots total. A 600,000 lead is pretty damn significant
Penn is not needed for a President Trump 2.0. If he wins AZ, NC, FL, he just needs one rust belt state and he should just about have it wrapped up.
This election will come down to these 4 states. MN, MI, PENN, WI. Win one, and he wins.
Has it been forgotten that Trump won PA with a lot of crossover D votes. Looking at party breakdown in states like that of early votes doesn't tell you much. There will be A LOT more crossover D's than crossover R's by quite a wide margin there.will25u said:You need to take TargetSmart data with a grain of salt. It is a model, NOT real numbers.FbgTxAg said:Pennsylvania is really looking like a tough pull. I believe they just started early voting yesterday, so hopefully the "Hate Trump" voters are now mostly banked.will25u said:
Updated Spreadsheet
10/27 Daily Update 1/2(There are 2 updates usually a day)
Oklahoma finally with an update which moves the EC votes over to the Republican side.
Battleground States Daily Lean(Vote lead):
+ = Republican Lead
- = Democrat Lead
Arizona: +4,108(-61,431)
Florida: +5,800(-172,722)
Iowa: 119(-62,135)
Michigan: -5,848(-105,202)
Minnesota: -1,447(-211,389)
Nevada: -3,216(-21,968)
North Carolina: -1,472(-174,908)
Pennsylvania: -84,449(-618,365)
Texas: +72(+918,153)
Wisconsin: -1,877(-49,980)
All States: -438,038(-5,220,563)
EC: 340(D)-198(R)
Pennsylvania will have around 6 Million ballots total. A 600,000 lead is pretty damn significant
Penn is not needed for a President Trump 2.0. If he wins AZ, NC, FL, he just needs one rust belt state and he should just about have it wrapped up.
This election will come down to these 4 states. MN, MI, PENN, WI. Win one, and he wins.
First time the RCP average in Florida has Trump up since April
JW
Interesting betting lines for futures for A&M football as of April 2024
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
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