What gives you confidence for November?

149,208 Views | 1681 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by Tone2002
Ukraine Gas Expert
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<insert praying dog>
Silvertaps
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will25u said:

Can put this one to bed. Helmut Norpoth still stands by his Primary Model at 91% for Trump's reelection.




Good grief...that is some extreme confidence.
will25u
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His model has predicted correctly the last 25/27 presidential elections. So there is that.
AggieRain
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yukmonkey said:

Man I hope you guys are right
Me too. There is so much info flying around from both sides that I can't tell heads from tails. Meh. I registered my vote for Trump last week. Nothing to do now except sit back and see what the Nov. 3rd poll brings.
Silvertaps
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Predicting a Trump win is one thing...but at 91% chance in the middle of early voting seems a bit over the top. He should be going all in on those Vegas lines while they're leaning Biden right now if he's that confident.
texagbeliever
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Silvertaps said:

Predicting a Trump win is one thing...but at 91% chance in the middle of early voting seems a bit over the top. He should be going all in on those Vegas lines while their leaning Biden right now if he's that confident.
His methodology is based on primary voting. Nothing is going to change the primary results. So being in the middle of EV doesn't matter.
JB99
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FL, NC, AZ, MI, PA, WI, MN, NV, NM.

Elder abuse landslide
bmks270
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Family friend is a poll worker in the villages Florida.

Reporting in that the republicans poll workers way out number the democrats, Rs have every location covered in 2-1/2 hour shifts now through Election Day while Dems seem to be spread thin, their volunteers doing much longer shifts. Said the democrat rep was clueless, not informed or trained properly on the process and gave example of not being trained on how to help the handicap vote. Trump campaign lawyers are also directly available to the poll workers.

It's evident the Biden ground game is non-existent while Trumps may be the most organized campaign in US history.

Trump even has organized mini-ralleys on street corners just a handful of people volunteer to wave flags each day. These are throughout the nation, I'm many of you have passed them.

The Biden campaign can't even organize their workers in The Villages FL. It is a place you'd expect to have a lot of responsible and politically active people on both sides of the isle.
Tony Franklins Other Shoe
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Silvertaps said:

will25u said:

Can put this one to bed. Helmut Norpoth still stands by his Primary Model at 91% for Trump's reelection.




Good grief...that is some extreme confidence.


I'M TOOBIN TO THAT!!
bmks270
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Another source is telling me that almost 20,000 mail in ballots in FL have already been rejected.

Here is a Oct 16 story that would verify a lot of FL mail in ballots are being rejected:

https://www.tampabay.com/opinion/2020/10/16/rejected-mail-ballots-pile-up-in-florida-column/
aggiehawg
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bmks270 said:

Family friend is a poll worker in the villages Florida.

Reporting in that the republicans poll workers way out number the democrats, Rs have every location covered in 2-1/2 hour shifts now through Election Day while Dems seem to be spread thin, their volunteers doing much longer shifts. Said the democrat rep was clueless, not informed or trained properly on the process and gave example of not being trained on how to help the handicap vote. Trump campaign lawyers are also directly available to the poll workers.

It's evident the Biden ground game is non-existent while Trumps may be the most organized campaign in US history.

Trump even has organized mini-ralleys on street corners just a handful of people volunteer to wave flags each day.

The Biden campaign can't even organize their workers in The Villages FL. It is a place you'd expect to have a lot of responsible and politically active people on both sides of the isle.
Thanks for posting that. Anecdotal but very consistent on the reporting for months now that the Biden campaign has zero ground game in most any states. Bloomberg pawned off the campaign employees that he stupidly signed employment contracts with to last until the election. He entered the race so late, the people he hired were the dregs of the dregs of campaign workers. And then Bloomie stuck the state Dem parties with his fired workers.

This campaign cycle will be one of the lowest energy, badly managed one by the Dems since Dukakis in 1988.
Verne Lundquist
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bmks270 said:

Family friend is a poll worker in the villages Florida.

Reporting in that the republicans poll workers way out number the democrats, Rs have every location covered in 2-1/2 hour shifts now through Election Day while Dems seem to be spread thin, their volunteers doing much longer shifts. Said the democrat rep was clueless, not informed or trained properly on the process and gave example of not being trained on how to help the handicap vote. Trump campaign lawyers are also directly available to the poll workers.

It's evident the Biden ground game is non-existent while Trumps may be the most organized campaign in US history.

Trump even has organized mini-ralleys on street corners just a handful of people volunteer to wave flags each day. These are throughout the nation, I'm many of you have passed them.

The Biden campaign can't even organize their workers in The Villages FL. It is a place you'd expect to have a lot of responsible and politically active people on both sides of the isle.
Biden team went all in on VBM until they saw they weren't getting the numbers they wanted to see and stared the ground game a couple weeks ago I think
aggiehawg
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Quote:

Biden team went all in on VBM until they saw they weren't getting the numbers they wanted to see and stared the ground game a couple weeks ago I think
You are correct. When Team Biden finally figured out that the states they needed to change election laws hastily were GOP controlled, they went to the courts hoping for the save for illegal actions to promote fraudulent vote by mail and ballot harvesting permissions.

Make n mistake here. The entire Democrat Party is pushing, advocating, demanding patently illegal actions by a court because they could not pass the laws they wanted to be able to cheat.

They are openly saying they want to cheat in an election. That's how far gone. They have admitted they want to cheat.
Barnyard96
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Ukraine Gas Expert
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Has anyone figured out how they gather the data? I pray these are legit, just curious about the data collection.
Barnyard96
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Everybody that signs up, answers these questions.
Barnyard96
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Barnyard96
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Gastonia, NC
rgag12
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EagleAg19
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Captn_Ag05 said:

Not sure how long it will take, but day one was essentially a wash. 170,000ish ballots cast by each party.
Any updates from your organization recently?
aTm2004
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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Michigan is done with Whitmer and Peters.
bbqAg09
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If you want to hear a fascinating interview from the chief pollster of Trafalgar, listen in starting at 32:52. If you're paying attention, the non-honest pollsters are doing the same sh*t they did in 2016 to try and save face when Trump wins again.

I couldn't give a damn about polls but this is very informative and a great look behind the pollster curtain.
will25u
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Trump back up over 50% at 52% on Rasmussen.
nortex97
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Between Biden familia corruption and his approval, plus the bonus of early voting data in Florida/NC etc., I am starting to get very bullish.
Barnyard96
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will25u
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John James is gonna win, isn't he?

RAB91
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AgResearch
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RAB91 said:


Poor

Crying
News
Network
Silvertaps
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What sort of bump should we expect for Trump after tonight's debate?
Was it enough to flip a Biden supporter? ...or perhaps a Libertarian?

It's unlikely there are any undecided left to really move the needle.
fightingfarmer09
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Bidencare "you can keep your insurance"
Oil industry phase out "Yes"

Both of those should move a few folks.

My wife was livid at the insurance comment. And she doesn't get into anything political.
LUaggie19
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Not going to lie folks. Much like the aggie football fan I am I have had optimistic hope. I believe it can be done but have some underlying doubt. I felt that way about the election for awhile.

The chickens have come home to roost though. Bigggg backfire on "ending oil and gas". I feel pretty good right now and am excited to see what happens
Counterpoint
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Pretty good value if I take Trump in Texas, no? Seems like the best of the non-risky plays.

coolerguy12
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Florida. Lock of the week
Gigem314
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RAB91 said:


 
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