will25u said:
I think The Donald has NC locked up.
If they had a Republican Governor, I'd move it to red. Not quite ready yet.
The greatest argument ever made against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter.
What gives you confidence for November?
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Last: 3 yr ago by Tone2002
If they had a Republican Governor, I'd move it to red. Not quite ready yet.
That dude is hilariously wound up.Mostly Foggy Recollection said:
Really, really interesting
Polls now look good for Trump in both states.
Ohio has sided with the election winner the last 14/14 elections. (Since 1964 and onward).
Florida has sided with the election winner the last 13/14 elections.
Trump is favored in both on the betting websites.
Ohio has sided with the election winner the last 14/14 elections. (Since 1964 and onward).
Florida has sided with the election winner the last 13/14 elections.
Trump is favored in both on the betting websites.
I think the Democrats are running out of EC votes in rich white areas with racist antifa BLM kids living in the basement.
Going with more riots this week as in Philly isn't helping their cause in the burbs, nor with black voters, either.
Going with more riots this week as in Philly isn't helping their cause in the burbs, nor with black voters, either.
LOL.Quote:
Polling indicates Joe Biden and the Democrats will win big. However, Democrats are falling short of the edge they need in early voting to offset the Republicans' anticipated big edge in election day voting in three of four battleground states where data is available.
If pollsters adjusted to fix 2016 mistakes, the RealClearPolitics average in each state shows Biden winning 341-197 and Democrats taking control of the Senate. This grid shows a middle scenario, that state polling averages are just as far off as in 2016, that would add Wisconsin, Iowa and North Carolina to the Trump column, still leaving Trump short 310-228, but likely meaning the GOP held the Senate 51-49.
The third scenario is that the fact that most poll respondents believe their neighbors are supporting Trump indicates he is actually going to win but people are scared to give their true opinion.
However, if people are simply scared to give their opinion to pollsters, another option is to look at the breakdown of who has actually voted.
Forbes polling indicates that roughly half of all voters plan to vote early, with 62 percent of Democrats planning to vote early while 72 percent of Republicans plan to wait and vote on election day. If that happened and independents split evenly (last time Trump won them), then Democrats would need to win early voting at least 70-30 to be on pace to barely overcome a 31-69 disadvantage in partisan election day votes.
But wait there's more.
The HillQuote:
The Elect Project indicates Democrats are only hitting that mark in one of four battleground states where data on the partisan breakdown of early voters is available.
For instance, in Pennsylvania, Democrats have cast 946,662 early votes and Republicans cast 262,838, for a 79 percent-21 percent edge that is well above the 70 percent Dems need to hit in early voting to match Republican turnout on election day. Translation, advantage Democrats in Pennsylvania.
In Iowa, Democrats have cast 336,780 early votes and Republicans cast 199,586, a 63 percent-37 percent edge, which is well short of the 70 percent they need to hit. Advantage goes to Republicans in Iowa.
In Florida, much has been made of Democrats flipping the early voting edge this year by outvoting Republicans 1,926,055 to 1,463,281 so far. However, that 57 percent of the partisan share is well short of the 70 percent they need to beat expected Republican turnout. Democrats' early voting across the state is actually falling well short of what they would need to win if they lose election day 31-69. Again, the advantage goes to Republicans in Florida.
Nevada might be the most telling state, though hardest to calculate. So far, Democrats outvoted Republicans 170,689 to 122,735 for a 58 percent-42 percent edge. At first glance, that would be well short of the 70 percent they need in other states. However, in Nevada they only need a 59-41 edge in early voting since only about 1 in 5 voters will wait until election day. Ballots were mailed to all voters, and even in 2016 more than 60 percent voted by mail in the state. Advantage Republicans in Nevada.
Turn out the lights....
Wow. From The Hill?
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
Bloomberg apparently spending millions more for tv spots in Texas for Biden.
Apparently Bloomberg has money to burn. Why would they waste money this late in the game?
Apparently Bloomberg has money to burn. Why would they waste money this late in the game?
And they are wrong about PA. PA doesn't have in person early voting. So the numbers are way off.aginlakeway said:
Wow. From The Hill?
Artorias said:
Bloomberg apparently spending millions more for tv spots in Texas for Biden.
Apparently Bloomberg has money to burn. Why would they waste money this late in the game?
Hail Mary. Beto almost beat Cruz, so there is that. Someone will also point out down ballot reasons, hope that's the only reason.
From that same article.aginlakeway said:
Wow. From The Hill?
Quote:
. . .
A strong ground game is crucial to Democrats, normally including collecting ballots everywhere from college campuses to nursing homes, and on election day driving thousands of vans filled with likely supporters to the polls. None of that is happening because of COVID, and the first time they tried to win an election with no ground game resulted in a double digit loss.
The fact that Republicans were knocking on a million doors a week compared to none for Biden until the final weeks will result in Republicans winning election day by millions of votes. So far the Democrats have not built the 70-30 edge they need in early voting to wrap up a win.
Only reason Beto got close is because Cruz was MIA the entire campaign, while Beto was all over the state on his skateboard. Trump will win by at least double what Cruz won by.Premium said:Artorias said:
Bloomberg apparently spending millions more for tv spots in Texas for Biden.
Apparently Bloomberg has money to burn. Why would they waste money this late in the game?
Hail Mary. Beto almost beat Cruz, so there is that. Someone will also point out down ballot reasons, hope that's the only reason.
Looking forward to Dems blaming COVID for their November 4th tears.Faustus said:From that same article.aginlakeway said:
Wow. From The Hill?Quote:
. . .
A strong ground game is crucial to Democrats, normally including collecting ballots everywhere from college campuses to nursing homes, and on election day driving thousands of vans filled with likely supporters to the polls. None of that is happening because of COVID, and the first time they tried to win an election with no ground game resulted in a double digit loss.
The fact that Republicans were knocking on a million doors a week compared to none for Biden until the final weeks will result in Republicans winning election day by millions of votes. So far the Democrats have not built the 70-30 edge they need in early voting to wrap up a win.
Self inflicted wound, too.Quote:
Looking forward to Dems blaming COVID for their November 4th tears.
Meh I was just posting it because it seemed like it was good news for the thread and confirmed Biden's no ground game approach is a disaster.
Trump is the only one who really gets to blame COVID if he loses. Economy was humming along prior to that.
Trump is the only one who really gets to blame COVID if he loses. Economy was humming along prior to that.
At least you are honest about it. Kudos, my friend.Faustus said:
Meh I was just posting it because it seemed like it was good news for the thread and confirmed Biden's no ground game approach is a disaster.
Trump is the only one who really gets to blame COVID if he loses. Economy was humming along prior to that.
Anybody else getting the Borat ad on the right side of the page with him in a mask covering his junk?
How do you make that stop?
How do you make that stop?
Bloom's move in Texas smells a lot more like fear or desperation than opportunistic.
Early voting signals in Texas pretty much sh*t all over the idea that Texas could be in play
Early voting signals in Texas pretty much sh*t all over the idea that Texas could be in play
AgResearch said:Shhhhhhhhhhhhh.....Don't tell them!StandUpforAmerica said:
Chart says 20 percent independents have early voted. Why are we so sure many are voting for Trump?
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
I'm not in FL but am registered Independent in my state for certain reasons but will be straight line Republican on election day.aginlakeway said:AgResearch said:Shhhhhhhhhhhhh.....Don't tell them!StandUpforAmerica said:
Chart says 20 percent independents have early voted. Why are we so sure many are voting for Trump?
stop watching all the infernal PORNObarnyard1996 said:
Anybody else getting the Borat ad on the right side of the page with him in a mask covering his junk?
How do you make that stop?
96 whoop
It's almost as if one side, the lying Dems, want people to believe it's over and not to vote. Surprise mofos! America doesn't like racist rioters and hopefully shows up the commies too!
Because there are zero reasons for them to vote Biden. He'll raise their taxes. He'll ruin their suburbs. He supports taking money away from law enforcement, thus encouraging crime, he'll kill the energy sectors eliminating millions and millions of jobs, he'll reinstitute having complete control of their healthcare, he'll close the economy down over covid paranoia, he'll keep children from going to school and he'll take guns away so families can no longer defend themselves.Quote:
Chart says 20 percent independents have early voted. Why are we so sure many are voting for Trump?
Plus, he's clearly in decline mentally and physically.
Even Karens wearing their masks alone in their own bathrooms are afraid of that sh** show of a platform.
I swing wildly between confident and terrified. Confident because the democrat's platform is so obviously bad for most Americans. Terrified because the democrat's campaign is so bad that they must know that the fix is in.
ME92 said:
I swing wildly between confident and terrified. Confident because the democrat's platform is so obviously bad for most Americans. Terrified because the democrat's campaign is so bad that they must know that the fix is in.
I'm right there with you.
Thanks. It makes me feel better to know that I'm not the only one.FroWins said:ME92 said:
I swing wildly between confident and terrified. Confident because the democrat's platform is so obviously bad for most Americans. Terrified because the democrat's campaign is so bad that they must know that the fix is in.
I'm right there with you.
One issue I have is that every Republican I know is voting early for Trump, myself and my wife included. I do not believe 72% are waiting for long lines on election day. People are working from home and its easy to vote early.
Florida is the canary in the coal mine. As democrats slowly realize how dramatically wrong the polls are in Florida and then consider the other battlegrounds. The panic will set in soon.
HoustonAggie37713 said:
One issue I have is that every Republican I know is voting early for Trump, myself and my wife included. I do not believe 72% are waiting for long lines on election day. People are working from home and its easy to vote early.
I always vote early and everyone I know has always voted early. Do you or your friends normally vote on Election Day? I wouldn't stress over that.
HoustonAggie37713 said:
One issue I have is that every Republican I know is voting early for Trump, myself and my wife included. I do not believe 72% are waiting for long lines on election day. People are working from home and its easy to vote early.
True. But democrats have VBM and early vote in higher percentages. Meaning on election day the margins favoring Republicans will be greater than 2016.