The oil industry comment pushed anyone not sure about Trump in PA, OH, and MI firmly on the Trump Train.
Before the debate yesterday, Frank Luntz (spit) was on with Baier and said that if the pollsters get it that wrong again they're done as no one will ever trust them again.rgag12 said:
I'm going to laugh so hard when Silver and the rest of his dem cronies start herding their polls to the independent pollsters who have the battleground state races as competitive. By Election Day Silver is going to do exactly what he did in 2016 and say Biden +2, and then when Trump wins by 1 or 2 he'll just say, "oh but it was within my margin of error". The mainstream pollsters are so bad.
You forget the beauty of Silver. His method isn't really wrong, it is all the other pollsters who feed his method that got it wrong.rgag12 said:
I'm going to laugh so hard when Silver and the rest of his dem cronies start herding their polls to the independent pollsters who have the battleground state races as competitive. By Election Day Silver is going to do exactly what he did in 2016 and say Biden +2, and then when Trump wins by 1 or 2 he'll just say, "oh but it was within my margin of error". The mainstream pollsters are so bad.
fightingfarmer09 said:
Focus on trends not percentages.
What changed the last couple days?
Trump had some good targeted interviews, and has tightened his sales pitch.
I agree. They'll have a little less trust from people but some will still buy into the claims that they have "fixed" what was wrong with previous polls.aggiehawg said:Before the debate yesterday, Frank Luntz (spit) was on with Baier and said that if the pollsters get it that wrong again they're done as no one will ever trust them again.rgag12 said:
I'm going to laugh so hard when Silver and the rest of his dem cronies start herding their polls to the independent pollsters who have the battleground state races as competitive. By Election Day Silver is going to do exactly what he did in 2016 and say Biden +2, and then when Trump wins by 1 or 2 he'll just say, "oh but it was within my margin of error". The mainstream pollsters are so bad.
They won't be completely finished but their models will have to undergo a serious adjustment.
fightingfarmer09 said:
Focus on trends not percentages.
What changed the last couple days?
Trump had some good targeted interviews, and has tightened his sales pitch.
That is a good sample size overall, but it looks like African Americans made up roughly 10% of the responses so only 285 replies. A better size than i would have thought though.Readzilla said:texagbeliever said:Probably a small sample size, but Trump and Biden were almost even on support among African Americans. Uh-Oh.will25u said:
Sample size was 2851
Rapier108 said:
Why this is guy allowed to disrupt and troll this thread?
This is not the thread for the libs to talk about how they think Trump is going to lose.
texaglurkerguy said:Thread title is "What gives you confidence for November?" This particular poll being highly suspect and deviant from the mean gives me confidence that Trump is not, in fact, currently leading in Michigan. HTH.Rapier108 said:
Why this is guy allowed to disrupt and troll this thread?
This is not the thread for the libs to talk about how they think Trump is going to lose.