What gives you confidence for November?

148,139 Views | 1681 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by Tone2002
aTm2004
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AG
The oil industry comment pushed anyone not sure about Trump in PA, OH, and MI firmly on the Trump Train.
will25u
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My personal opinion, you wouldn't go wrong on TX, OH, GA.

Fl is looking really good for Rs but a little more risky. NC is looking better by the day for Rs but is the most risky of the ones I think will end up R.
texagbeliever
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How many middle Americans drive electric cars today?

TSLA has what a $60,000 entry price car. Leaf / other EVs likely are a combination of expensive, effeminate, and ugly. I hope they look at their car, truck / SUV and think well in 5 years i have to buy a new car. I can't afford a $60,000 car.

I was wrong Tesla has a $31,000 car, Thanks Redzilla. That car will see a faster life depreciation and more expensive to repair, and longer time to repair.
Readzilla
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Tesla model 3 starts in the mid to upper 30s

https://www.tesla.com/model3/design#battery
StandUpforAmerica
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StandUpforAmerica
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nortex97
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That's pretty incredible. This trend is encouraging in NC. Also, if Trump is really doing better with black males, it would have a substantial impact in MI, PA, and NC (as far as where it matters, also helps in GA/AZ). Just to keep in mind as we are stuck with tracking early voter #'s based on party registration thus far.

will25u
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rgag12
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I'm going to laugh so hard when Silver and the rest of his dem cronies start herding their polls to the independent pollsters who have the battleground state races as competitive. By Election Day Silver is going to do exactly what he did in 2016 and say Biden +2, and then when Trump wins by 1 or 2 he'll just say, "oh but it was within my margin of error". The mainstream pollsters are so bad.
FbgTxAg
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StandUpforAmerica said:




I know we don't trust polls - but if this is even remotely close.... Hole. E. Sheet.

If Trump gets 20% of the Black Vote he wins 35 States.
The greatest argument ever made against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter.
aggiehawg
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rgag12 said:

I'm going to laugh so hard when Silver and the rest of his dem cronies start herding their polls to the independent pollsters who have the battleground state races as competitive. By Election Day Silver is going to do exactly what he did in 2016 and say Biden +2, and then when Trump wins by 1 or 2 he'll just say, "oh but it was within my margin of error". The mainstream pollsters are so bad.
Before the debate yesterday, Frank Luntz (spit) was on with Baier and said that if the pollsters get it that wrong again they're done as no one will ever trust them again.

They won't be completely finished but their models will have to undergo a serious adjustment.
texagbeliever
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rgag12 said:

I'm going to laugh so hard when Silver and the rest of his dem cronies start herding their polls to the independent pollsters who have the battleground state races as competitive. By Election Day Silver is going to do exactly what he did in 2016 and say Biden +2, and then when Trump wins by 1 or 2 he'll just say, "oh but it was within my margin of error". The mainstream pollsters are so bad.
You forget the beauty of Silver. His method isn't really wrong, it is all the other pollsters who feed his method that got it wrong.

I look at pollsters like sailing. They all follow the same path because of how the wind did blow (Obama '08 & '12). A few smaller guys said well we have nothing to lose, lets try out this path instead ('16 & '20). If the guys going out on their own are wrong, stick in a fork in them because it was obvious from history (though very short) that they should have stayed with the pack. If the mainstream pollsters stick with the pack are all wrong, well this was just another unpredictable wild election that went against historical data.
Silvertaps
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FbgTxAg said:

StandUpforAmerica said:




I know we don't trust polls - but if this is even remotely close.... Hole. E. Sheet.

If Trump gets 20% of the Black Vote he wins 35 States.


Yea, although I hope it's close to true...this seems incredibly high.
texagbeliever
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will25u said:


Probably a small sample size, but Trump and Biden were almost even on support among African Americans. Uh-Oh.
fightingfarmer09
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Focus on trends not percentages.

What changed the last couple days?

Trump had some good targeted interviews, and has tightened his sales pitch.
AgResearch
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AG
fightingfarmer09 said:

Focus on trends not percentages.

What changed the last couple days?

Trump had some good targeted interviews, and has tightened his sales pitch.


50 Cent not wanting to be 20 Cent matters too.
MostlyHarmless
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aggiehawg said:

rgag12 said:

I'm going to laugh so hard when Silver and the rest of his dem cronies start herding their polls to the independent pollsters who have the battleground state races as competitive. By Election Day Silver is going to do exactly what he did in 2016 and say Biden +2, and then when Trump wins by 1 or 2 he'll just say, "oh but it was within my margin of error". The mainstream pollsters are so bad.
Before the debate yesterday, Frank Luntz (spit) was on with Baier and said that if the pollsters get it that wrong again they're done as no one will ever trust them again.

They won't be completely finished but their models will have to undergo a serious adjustment.
I agree. They'll have a little less trust from people but some will still buy into the claims that they have "fixed" what was wrong with previous polls.
Readzilla
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texagbeliever said:

will25u said:


Probably a small sample size, but Trump and Biden were almost even on support among African Americans. Uh-Oh.


Sample size was 2851
Silvertaps
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fightingfarmer09 said:

Focus on trends not percentages.

What changed the last couple days?

Trump had some good targeted interviews, and has tightened his sales pitch.


Agree...the trend upwards is certainly encouraging. Hell, just being over 25% is good enough for me to feel comfortable.
texagbeliever
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Readzilla said:

texagbeliever said:

will25u said:


Probably a small sample size, but Trump and Biden were almost even on support among African Americans. Uh-Oh.


Sample size was 2851
That is a good sample size overall, but it looks like African Americans made up roughly 10% of the responses so only 285 replies. A better size than i would have thought though.
texaglurkerguy
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texagbeliever said:

will25u said:


Probably a small sample size, but Trump and Biden were almost even on support among African Americans. Uh-Oh.
Hillary won black voters in Michigan by 86 points, I think that tells you all you need to know about this poll
Signel
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I rolled through Phx, Tempe, Mesa over the last week. I literally drive through about 20 neighborhoods looking at houses for my sister in law.

2 Biden signs......

Likely thousands of trump flags, signs, banners and more.

One guy had a massive board that he hung from his awning of the garage. I had to be 10x6 feet, and painted red, white and blue with TRUMP 2020.

Maga masks and hats everywhere. A family at the airport had their kids in MAGA gear, and everyone kept coming up telling them how cool it was.

I had a similar experience in a few other states in the last two months. I am seeing more trump signs in DFW, but I know many of the silent majority don't want to get their home vandalized by the tolerant left.
centexaggie2010
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AG
texagbeliever
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No it really doesnt. Without knowing the party that the individual is registered or would identify them-self as, it is hard to know. If 50% of black voters said they were Rupublican okay yeah bad sampling. If 85% said they were democrat, umm potential big news.
MaroonDynasty
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You get Ice Cube
Then you get corrupt politician
Then you get 50 cent (2quarters) becoming 20 cent (2 dimes)
Then you get, hey lets end oil

Trump FOMO is coming, watch the shorts start covering, Dem found ballots are about to be a blip on the radar.
texaglurkerguy
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If anyone really believes Trump will win 25% of the black vote in MI, let alone 50%, I want some of whatever they're on.

This poll is a big outlier, to the tune of ~12 points off the mean polling results in MI from the last week. It's fine to be hopeful, but I wouldn't hang my hopes on this poll.
Rapier108
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Why this is guy allowed to disrupt and troll this thread?

This is not the thread for the libs to talk about how they think Trump is going to lose.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
will25u
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Just threw this together from yesterday. If anyone is interested in tracking the day to day movements of the states from TargetSmart data.

Target Smart Election Data(My spreadsheet)

Out of almost 3 million votes between updates, the difference between the amount of R's cast and D's cast was 32,912.
TAMUallen
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AG
Peter Henderson gives me confidence
rgag12
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I know this is NPR, but check out the campaign donations map, it's pretty interesting. You can hover over each county and see what each person got from that county.

Biden may be getting a lot of money from blue mega cities, but Trump got more money from important counties in swing states and out did Biden 5:1 to 8:1 in a lot of rural counties.

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/20/858347477/money-tracker-how-much-trump-and-biden-have-raised-in-the-2020-election
will25u
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Fixed the link.
Jbob04
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AG
Rapier108 said:

Why this is guy allowed to disrupt and troll this thread?

This is not the thread for the libs to talk about how they think Trump is going to lose.

Exactly. He derails every thread. Keep flagging him and move on. Like the other libs, they are getting desperate. They know Joe is done. Their tears on election night will be delicious.
Rockdoc
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AG
What gives me confidence? Look at Trump. Listen to Trump. Look at Biden. Listen to Biden.
texaglurkerguy
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Rapier108 said:

Why this is guy allowed to disrupt and troll this thread?

This is not the thread for the libs to talk about how they think Trump is going to lose.
Thread title is "What gives you confidence for November?" This particular poll being highly suspect and deviant from the mean gives me confidence that Trump is not, in fact, currently leading in Michigan. HTH.
Jbob04
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AG
texaglurkerguy said:

Rapier108 said:

Why this is guy allowed to disrupt and troll this thread?

This is not the thread for the libs to talk about how they think Trump is going to lose.
Thread title is "What gives you confidence for November?" This particular poll being highly suspect and deviant from the mean gives me confidence that Trump is not, in fact, currently leading in Michigan. HTH.

Start your own thread then and quit derailing this one. This one is about confidence in Trump.
 
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