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What gives you confidence for November?
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Last: 3 yr ago by Tone2002
He had 5 campaign stops and was still tweeting at almost 2am, cut the man some slack.
https://www.citizenfreepress.com/breaking/inhale-this-georgie-stephanopoulos/
Miller thinks Trump has 280-290 before the Dems try to steal it.
Miller thinks Trump has 280-290 before the Dems try to steal it.
In your scenario Nevada is only for insurance against an unexpected loss somewhere. He's at 269 or 270 without it.
HoustonAggie37713 said:
https://www.citizenfreepress.com/breaking/inhale-this-georgie-stephanopoulos/
Miller thinks Trump has 280-290 before the Dems try to steal it.
Miller mentioned AA vote. Over 20% AA men. Over 10% overall. That was my guess a few weeks ago. Its crazy how stubborn the AA female vote is vs. the male vote. If the GOP could make inroads into AA female vote longterm, it would be an absolute game changer for them. Even getting 20% and building to 30% would likely create a complete shift in the party dynamics of urban counties across the US.
fifyFbgTxAg said:
I'm telling y'all - Trump gets 15-20% of the Democrat vote in Nevada.
Those casino folks know that a Trump economy sends a helluva lot more folks to Vegas than a Biden COVID shut down economy.
Yes they do. Hawaii is a very screwed up state and I doubt it happens but I would die of laughter if Trump won Hawaii.Quote:
don't they depend on tourism?
8th day in a row of President Trump +50% on Rasmussen.
Look how far they were off in Wisconsin in 2016. I thought Trump could only overcome 2-3% points, but it looks like 7-8% is legitimately possible.
3% was the average they were wrong in 2016 battlegrounds.
Based on TDS I could see them being off even more this year. However, there are a few leaning republican polls mixed in to 2020, so frankly, this is a crapshoot.
3% was the average they were wrong in 2016 battlegrounds.
Based on TDS I could see them being off even more this year. However, there are a few leaning republican polls mixed in to 2020, so frankly, this is a crapshoot.
Don't forget that RCP is including some ridiculous polls, especially for Wisconsin and Michigan where Biden has been up by as much as 17.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
RCP also changed the numbers after the fact to show a closer race.Premium said:
Look how far they were off in Wisconsin in 2016. I thought Trump could only overcome 2-3% points, but it looks like 7-8% is legitimately possible.
3% was the average they were wrong in 2016 battlegrounds.
Based on TDS I could see them being off even more this year. However, there are a few leaning republican polls mixed in to 2020, so frankly, this is a crapshoot.
Updated Spreadsheet
11/2 Daily Update 1/2(There are 2 updates usually a day)
New day, new update.
Battleground States Daily Lean(Vote lead):
+ = Republican Lead
- = Democrat Lead
Arizona: -1,704(+11,119)
Florida: +9,292(+73,983)
Iowa: 0(-39,139)
Michigan: -2,397(-105,870)
Minnesota: -3,170(-220,977)
Nevada: -7,334(-8,569)
North Carolina: +2,153(-38,335)
Pennsylvania: 0(-758,642)
Texas: +7,862(+1,137,522)
Wisconsin: -4,956(-25,965)
All States: -1,914(-5,399,585)
Democrat %: 48.08%
Republican %: 41.86%
EC: 300(D)-238(R)
11/2 Daily Update 1/2(There are 2 updates usually a day)
New day, new update.
Battleground States Daily Lean(Vote lead):
+ = Republican Lead
- = Democrat Lead
Arizona: -1,704(+11,119)
Florida: +9,292(+73,983)
Iowa: 0(-39,139)
Michigan: -2,397(-105,870)
Minnesota: -3,170(-220,977)
Nevada: -7,334(-8,569)
North Carolina: +2,153(-38,335)
Pennsylvania: 0(-758,642)
Texas: +7,862(+1,137,522)
Wisconsin: -4,956(-25,965)
All States: -1,914(-5,399,585)
Democrat %: 48.08%
Republican %: 41.86%
EC: 300(D)-238(R)
RCP has been crap this election cycle.Rapier108 said:
Don't forget that RCP is including some ridiculous polls, especially for Wisconsin and Michigan where Biden has been up by as much as 17.
Rapier108 said:
Don't forget that RCP is including some ridiculous polls, especially for Wisconsin and Michigan where Biden has been up by as much as 17.
I hear you, but that 17% poll isn't in this particular one.
Interesting, did RCP really change their final Battleground polls to show something more favorable to Trump?
Here is where RCP was one day prior to the election 2016 vs today.
Biden is up 1.8% over Clinton. Trump won by 1.7% over Clinton.
Here is where RCP was one day prior to the election 2016 vs today.
Biden is up 1.8% over Clinton. Trump won by 1.7% over Clinton.
One thing that still gives me hope and has gone under the radar is the primary support Trump received. Really promising turnout and overwhelming support for Trump in a running-for-second-term incumbent has been a good indicator over the years.
I appreciate the work that you have put into this, but I'm highly skeptical of the accuracy of the data (not your fault). I think some people are interpreting it as actual current early voting totals and not models.will25u said:
Updated Spreadsheet
11/2 Daily Update 1/2(There are 2 updates usually a day)
New day, new update.
Battleground States Daily Lean(Vote lead):
+ = Republican Lead
- = Democrat Lead
Arizona: -1,704(+11,119)
Florida: +9,292(+73,983)
Iowa: 0(-39,139)
Michigan: -2,397(-105,870)
Minnesota: -3,170(-220,977)
Nevada: -7,334(-8,569)
North Carolina: +2,153(-38,335)
Pennsylvania: 0(-758,642)
Texas: +7,862(+1,137,522)
Wisconsin: -4,956(-25,965)
All States: -1,914(-5,399,585)
Democrat %: 48.08%
Republican %: 41.86%
EC: 300(D)-238(R)
Anecdotal data from my Texas County
Military/Overseas Ballots Received - 99
Trump - 56
Biden - 31
Jo - 11
One ballot rejected.
Military/Overseas Ballots Received - 99
Trump - 56
Biden - 31
Jo - 11
One ballot rejected.
The greatest argument ever made against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter.
~10% for Jo? Interesting.FbgTxAg said:
Anecdotal data from my Texas County
Military/Overseas Ballots Received - 99
Trump - 56
Biden - 31
Jo - 11
One ballot rejected.
Same here, that stood out to me
Military is very Libertarian. Not that I'd expect 10% but they'd be higher.
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