What gives you confidence for November?

148,126 Views | 1681 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by Tone2002
Trucker 96
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Yeah, I think when the time comes, a lot of people that don't like Trump are still going to have trouble getting motivated to stop what they are doing to go punch a ballot for Dementia Joe
SeMgCo87
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AG
barnyard1996 said:

I agree with the poor sampling in the polls. It is almost criminal.

On voter fraud, lets narrow it down to Texas. How are more votes going to be cast than registered voters? You have to apply for a ballot and qualify to be sent one.
This is a great question, because it is not a matter of if there will be MORE cast than registered, it is the way the votes are handled. And there are several key points in the process where human intervention can tilt the count one way or another, away from the true count.

And, I have read through the Texas Code for vote qualifying and counting.

The key issue is absentee and mail-in ballots, which are treated pretty much the same. (I simplify it a bit)

First they are validated by the envelope postmark/signature.
Next they are validated for properly filled out.
Valid one are added to a precinct ballot box.

The ones that don't validate are either:
Logged and voter notified, or
Logged, and passed on to the higher County level judges for further review - the day AFTER the in=person voting.

Each one of those steps is a point of human intervention, and each step is accompanied by a log entry - "canvassing reports". And, Snipes from Broward Cty in Florida probably knew how to manipulate the records and votes so that some could be counted the following day, hidden and/or dredge up as needed. I use her as an example because her stunts are fairly well known.

So there are multiple opportunities to either disqualify a ballot, pass it off to the county level, or fudge the logs. And could a clerk's political orientation help "glance " over a Republican vote here and there? Or make one invalid, chunking it up the next level for review? It doesn't take a lot, but a few thousand votes over several hundred precincts can make a difference -- in a county...and we have 254 counties.

Not to mention that fabricating more votes than those registered is ALSO fraud, but not everyone votes in any given election, so plenty of cover...
titan
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barnyard1996 said:

New World Ag said:

Jbob04 said:

New World Ag said:

I won't vote for Trump. I'd definitely vote for Pence if he was candidate...likely any other Republican for that matter.

I will never understand this mindset. Trump has done more for this country than any other recent president going back to Reagan. I guess socialism and the destruction of our country via the liberal mindset is ok with you.
I don't see Biden as a socialist and believe he will govern from the middle. I'll rather take my chances with him and get my Republican Party back instead of the Party of Trump.

His VP choice will be critical, though.
The democrats are destroying their cities and defunding police forces. Biden is lining up with Bernie. Biden will be a puppet president.

No socialism anywhere in there?
Biden's stated policies and who he will be inclusive of are devastating enough.

You will never get "that" Republican Party back, because it was impotent and has been all century. Its what caused Trump. Trump is a symptom of their failure. Robert's rulings on some issues that people are griping about are just a typical example of how old GOP "didn't deliver" to its voters like at least the DNC does do for theirs (ACA, etc).
FrioAg 00:
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
BadMoonRisin
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5.56 ammo.

Im not a Boy Scout, but I'd rather have and not need versus need and not have.
I know I ain't leavin' you like I know He ain't leavin' us
I know we believe in God and I know God believes in us
will25u
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nortex97
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Many chuckles;

Quote:

It's gotta be tough to be center-left media outlet Axios.
They pay a ton of money to do focus group work on swing state voters ... and the voters don't tell them the story they had probably hoped to hear. Witness this:
Quote:

Some swing voters in Warren, Mich., question Joe Biden's ability to lead the country calling him a "puppet" who's not "mentally capable of being president" while admitting they haven't paid much attention to his events, platforms or speeches.
They've got it down as 'some' from their focus group of voters who had voted for President Obama in 2012 and then went for Trump in 2016, which, to be fair, is accurate enough.
But it doesn't tell the whole story. Actually, that 'some' looks like quite a lot -- only two of the nine voters in the swing-state focus group actually plan to vote for Biden. The other seven, well, Axios doesn't say, but they're probably either undecided or more likely (given the Axios reticence) voting again for Trump.
In a story from last month, Axios found that nine out of 10 Trump voters intend to stick with Trump.
Meanwhile, back in Michigan, the swing voter verdict on Biden is pretty brutal - here's a sample from the Axios report:
Quote:

"I just feel that what he's saying is not making any sense to me," said Sharon T. of Biden's television appearances. She called Biden "a puppet" for wearing a mask in public, suggesting that he was only doing it to be politically correct.
Some other takings:
Quote:

"I don't think that Biden is mentally capable of being president."
..."up there in age"
..."showing signs of dementia"
..."a puppet" who is "controlled by a lot of people in the deep state." ... "the lobbyists, the people that have the big money, the people that have influence on a lot of the politicians."
...a feeling that Biden "becomes lost in his answers,"
There were no contrasting positive statements noted from the participants, and you know that Axios would note them if they were there -- Axios was reduced to citing a national poll that made unfavorable claims about Trump as if those things were accurate.
Dad-O-Lot
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New World Ag said:

Jbob04 said:

New World Ag said:

I won't vote for Trump. I'd definitely vote for Pence if he was candidate...likely any other Republican for that matter.

I will never understand this mindset. Trump has done more for this country than any other recent president going back to Reagan. I guess socialism and the destruction of our country via the liberal mindset is ok with you.
I don't see Biden as a socialist and believe he will govern from the middle. I'll rather take my chances with him and get my Republican Party back instead of the Party of Trump.

His VP choice will be critical, though.
Biden will govern from where he's told to govern.
Trucker 96
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The smartest thing the Trump campaign could do is run a bunch of ads of Biden being Biden.
hairloom
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Arctic Penguin is back posting nonsense
Cromagnum
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oldarmy1 said:

What does Biden stand for? Lawlessness, open borders, extreme taxation, Weakened national security.

The country isn't going to elect that. Women or little girl sniffing not withstanding...



Biggest
Idiot
Democrats
Ever
Nominated
will25u
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Back to pre-WuFlu numbers? We will have to wait and see, but this is the first time he has been back to 50% since Feb.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 50% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump's job performance. Forty-eight percent (48%) disapprove.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/current_events/politics/prez_track_jul31
Artorias
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will25u said:

Back to pre-WuFlu numbers? We will have to wait and see, but this is the first time he has been back to 50% since Feb.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 50% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump's job performance. Forty-eight percent (48%) disapprove.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/current_events/politics/prez_track_jul31
Zero chance Biden wins once he comes out of his basement and has to try to string multiple coherent sentences together in front of a live audience.
titan
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Bingo Bango Bongo said:

The smartest thing the Trump campaign could do is run a bunch of ads of Biden being Biden.
And visual snaps of the Democratic platform put in an easy to see what it means manner.
FrioAg 00:
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
BQ78
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Two stars for you, sir way underrated post!
agforlife97
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There was a major WSJ poll in October 2016 that showed Hillary up nationally by like 16 points. Hillary ended up winning the popular vote by only 2.1 percentage points. So it's really hard to say what the real state of the race is at this point. I personally think that as long as Trump is within 3-6 points in the swing states that matter, then he'll likely win. I really think that Trump voters simply don't identify themselves to pollsters.
titan
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agforlife97 said:

There was a major WSJ poll in October 2016 that showed Hillary up nationally by like 16 points. Hillary ended up winning the popular vote by only 2.1 percentage points. So it's really hard to say what the real state of the race is at this point. I personally think that as long as Trump is within 3-6 points in the swing states that matter, then he'll likely win. I really think that Trump voters simply don't identify themselves to pollsters.
And don't forget, something like 3-4 million of her "popular vote" advantage was in California. A state never in play.

If Trump had campaigned for votes, rather than states, he might well have chopped that number in half from the look of things!
FrioAg 00:
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
Barnyard96
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Sometime in in the next 2 months, Trump will announce we have a vaccine and hundreds of millions of doses being distributed by Army, FEMA, National Guard all across the country.

The dems are very worried about this development and already floating some narratives to give credit to science community and not Trump. Also floating that Trump has no plan to execute the delivery of the vaccine. They will exploit hiccups during the execution, but I don't think it will do them much good.

The emphasis of the election will be the economy and Trump will win.
ETFan
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barnyard1996 said:

already floating some narratives to give credit to science community and not Trump.
Uh ?
That_Guy_Moose
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barnyard1996 said:

Sometime in in the next 2 months, Trump will announce we have a vaccine and hundreds of millions of doses being distributed by Army, FEMA, National Guard all across the country.

The dems are very worried about this development and already floating some narratives to give credit to science community and not Trump. Also floating that Trump has no plan to execute the delivery of the vaccine. They will exploit hiccups during the execution, but I don't think it will do them much good.

The emphasis of the election will be the economy and Trump will win.

Considering only half of Americans would take it, i'm not sure that will have a significant effect.
TefIon Don
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The effect it will have on the "not taking the vaccine group" is the return to normal life and the beginning of the economy rebound.
titan
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Right. The emphasis being that the Democrats want to shut down the economy, and enable continued lawlessness for grievance culture, and have been is a better argument.
FrioAg 00:
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
That_Guy_Moose
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Don't disagree that it would help, but for herd immunity, vaccine intake would need to be closer to 80%.
That_Guy_Moose
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titan said:


Right. The emphasis being that the Democrats want to shut down the economy, and enable continued lawlessness for grievance culture, and have been is a better argument.
That doesn't hold up. Democrats are polling as far more likely to take a vaccine than Republicans.
Artorias
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That_Guy_Moose said:

titan said:


Right. The emphasis being that the Democrats want to shut down the economy, and enable continued lawlessness for grievance culture, and have been is a better argument.
That doesn't hold up. Democrats are polling as far more likely to take a vaccine than Republicans.
Pretty sure he was referring to Democrat "leaders"
That_Guy_Moose
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That's fair, but begs the question now -- the original point was Trump would unveil a vaccine that will save the country and the economy.

But less than half of his base (with addendum that one state sampled in my link) is polled as being ready to take it. There's a clear split between the agenda argued (vaccine will save Trump in November) and the facts on the ground surrounding the politicization of a COVID vaccine and what his voters believe.
titan
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Artorias said:

That_Guy_Moose said:

titan said:


Right. The emphasis being that the Democrats want to shut down the economy, and enable continued lawlessness for grievance culture, and have been is a better argument.
That doesn't hold up. Democrats are polling as far more likely to take a vaccine than Republicans.
Pretty sure he was referring to Democrat "leaders"
Correct. And the lawlessness part is a matter of record.
FrioAg 00:
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
titan
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That_Guy_Moose said:

That's fair, but begs the question now -- the original point was Trump would unveil a vaccine that will save the country and the economy.

But less than half of his base (with addendum that one state sampled in my link) is polled as being ready to take it. There's a clear split between the agenda argued (vaccine will save Trump in November) and the facts on the ground surrounding the politicization of a COVID vaccine and what his voters believe.
Those two don't go together though. A good part of those who will not take it, also do not favor shut down to avoid it. It just isn't of that magnitude. Its not like there is a correlation between those who don't trust a rushed vaccine and don't also especially fear the virus, with those who want all shut down and life guarantees.
FrioAg 00:
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
That_Guy_Moose
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Right, I think in a way we're actually agreeing on this point that regardless, between now and November a vaccine will not able to save Trump's reelection even if it were to become available.

If less than half of Americans will be willing to take it (Trump's base moreso), and we do not meet the threshold for Herd Immunity, the negative economic effects will continue to linger (abetted by Democrats or otherwise). I just don't see Democrat leaders being too worried about a vaccine being unveiled less than 100 days before the election because so few Americans will trust or take it, and on top of that it's far too late to have a positive economic impact by November.
Barnyard96
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One of Biden's last comments during his presser Tuesday was (praphrasing), "Sure we may have a vaccine, but Donald Trump has no plan to distibute it. He has no plan"
Barnyard96
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ETFan said:

barnyard1996 said:

already floating some narratives to give credit to science community and not Trump.
Uh ?
Uh what?
titan
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That_Guy_Moose said:

Right, I think in a way we're actually agreeing on this point that regardless, between now and November a vaccine will not able to save Trump's reelection even if it were to become available.

If less than half of Americans will be willing to take it (Trump's base moreso), and we do not meet the threshold for Herd Immunity, the negative economic effects will continue to linger (abetted by Democrats or otherwise). I just don't see Democrat leaders being too worried about a vaccine being unveiled less than 100 days before the election because so few Americans will trust or take it, and on top of that it's far too late to have a positive economic impact by November.
In the strictest sense of your post, you are correct we agree.

You might say what I DO say can save his re-election is knowledge of what the Democratic Party wants to do to the middle class way of life, and its open backing of regressive Marxism and lack of consequences for criminals. The knowledge also, that the Democrats-Media wanted the economy anemic anyway "new normal" and that even a limping one, is best recovered by someone who proved the Democrats-MSM- and NeverTrumpers all wrong about the American economy being capable of being great again: President Trump.
FrioAg 00:
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
Barnyard96
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That_Guy_Moose said:



Considering only half of Americans would take it, i'm not sure that will have a significant effect.
You raise a good point, and this will be a talking point. The MSM will accuse Trump of not encouraging folks to take the vaccine. Will be similar to the mask debate.

That said, If half america takes it, we are probably in pretty good shape.
That_Guy_Moose
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Right, no arguments there and don't want to dive into the remaining points, I was just debating the singular argument that a vaccine will be the reason Trump is reelected.

I appreciate the discussion and your points of view.
That_Guy_Moose
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It's a start to be sure, and as someone who would take it willingly when it is available, I DO understand the concerns of people who would like to see more out of it before taking it.

Regardless of political imperatives I hope it becomes available as soon as possible for all of us.
Legal Custodian
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It's confidence that might not mean much in the long run, but the fact that my Father (65yrs old) who I would say does not fall upon party lines at all is voting for Trump this go around. He voted for Hillary in 2016 due to him not liking Trump's rhetoric (at least what he heard in the media). This is a guy who voted for Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Dole, Bush, Obama, & Hillary. So definitely not someone who votes along party lines.

This is someone who never talks politics suddenly unprovoked brought up how horribly the media is treating President Trump and that he has done a great job since becoming president. I couldn't believe my ears when I heard him say that.

And I know that if my Dad is saying that, there are others exactly like him across the country who voted for Hillary but will vote for Trump this go around. Add that to the fact that I don't see how someone who voted for Trump in 2016 won't vote for him in 2020, and you have the makings of a bigger win for President Trump than in 2016.
 
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