What gives you confidence for November?

148,103 Views | 1681 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by Tone2002
Not a Bot
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And he doesn't have a blue check, so obviously he can't be trusted.
aTm2004
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Cactus Jack said:

digital_ag said:

Yeah the Washington one has me really questioning it. WA being tied is a lot like saying Texas is tied.


Maybe a lot of folks in Seattle are getting pretty turned off by the Democratic Party about now. Most of the rest of the state already is.

That, or their polling locations are burned down.
digital_ag
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Cactus Jack said:

digital_ag said:

Yeah the Washington one has me really questioning it. WA being tied is a lot like saying Texas is tied.


Maybe a lot of folks in Seattle are getting pretty turned off by the Democratic Party about now. Most of the rest of the state already is.
This definitely makes sense in a sane world.
Not a Bot
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Too bad Seattle is freaking crazy though. Trump will lose Washington by double digits.
AgResearch
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Rapier108
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It would be real easy to show Washington as being tired or a Republican ahead; simply do not poll the Sea-Tac area. More than half the state lives there, but if you only polled it at 30%-40% of your total respondents, it could easily show a Republican ahead. Much of Washington is conservative, but they can't overcome the NPCs in the Seattle area. Same problem Oregon has with Portland and Astoria. The eastern half of both states should join up into a new state.

It is always possible something completely wild and unexpected will happen in Washington this year? Sure, but it is highly unlikely. I'd put $5 on it because the return would be immense for the wager if it actually happened.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
SLAM
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Cactus Jack said:

digital_ag said:

Yeah the Washington one has me really questioning it. WA being tied is a lot like saying Texas is tied.


Maybe a lot of folks in Seattle are getting pretty turned off by the Democratic Party about now. Most of the rest of the state already is.


The rest of Washington is very red. If Seattle waivers at all, it could change it a lot.
Silvertaps
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SLAM said:

Cactus Jack said:

digital_ag said:

Yeah the Washington one has me really questioning it. WA being tied is a lot like saying Texas is tied.


Maybe a lot of folks in Seattle are getting pretty turned off by the Democratic Party about now. Most of the rest of the state already is.


The rest of Washington is very red. If Seattle waivers at all, it could change it a lot.
If Hell freezes and Washington went red, then you would definitely have your confirmation the riots had an effect on this election.
FbgTxAg
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titan
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S

Biden actually seems to have a strong streak of anger just under the surface as a default if you think about it.

Hopefully this report itself is true---but that sounds like an authentic description.
FrioAg 00:
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
ravingfans
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aginlakeway said:


Gig'Em POTUS and Gig'Em Lil Wayne!!!!

WHOOP!!!! #BTHOBIDEN WHOOP!!!!
ravingfans
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aginlakeway said:


that is YUUUGE! Wonder if SCOTUS will back this up?
FbgTxAg
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This is over a week now of consistent polling. Will it be enough (along with the increased Hispanic support) to offset the Soccer Moms and Seniors that are defecting from Trump?

Ryan34
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FbgTxAg said:



In the comments, that accounts says it's satire.
Phat32
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Come on, American people.
Verne Lundquist
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Evidently this is the rurals. Gotta believe it's for POTUS since he's been killing it in the rurals
Barnyard96
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Verne Lundquist said:


Evidently this is the rurals. Gotta believe it's for POTUS since he's been killing it in the rurals
These are the current stats for Brunswick Cty. It is very important to note they have also added 9k of unaffiliated voters. Since 2016, the NPA has grown dramatically across the state and they are equal to the two parties

Decay
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ravingfans said:

aginlakeway said:


Gig'Em POTUS and Gig'Em Lil Wayne!!!!

WHOOP!!!! #BTHOBIDEN WHOOP!!!!
This is actually a nice example of what happens when you let the stuffy Neocons go and start doing Conservative things.

EVERYONE wants money and success. Be the money party and watch your support start to come from surprising places.

I'd argue Wayne has been a Conservative for years. This song lyric is 14 years old:

I wake up in the mornin
take a piss and wash my hands
Take a knee and thank The Man
then get back to the money
Premium
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Not only are the margins falling in the battlegrounds, does anyone really think Trump only gets 46% and does anyone really think only 95% of the people will vote for Trump or Biden... where is the other 5%?

It's almost like they have over sampled Democrats and have skewed the polls one way... and it's still consolidating towards a "tie".

Democrats better hope the pollsters didn't over sample Democrats by 2% OR ask their questions with any bias whatsoever.

oh no
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will25u
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Updated Spreadsheet

10/30 Daily Update 1/2(There are 2 updates usually a day)

Another day, another update. Another seemingly good day thus far for Republicans.

Battleground States Daily Lean(Vote lead):

+ = Republican Lead
- = Democrat Lead

Arizona: +12,932(-2,735)
Florida: +39,728(-17,353)
Iowa: +3,724(-50,167)
Michigan: +2,203(-97,016)
Minnesota: -2,739(-216,166)
Nevada: +195(-5,334)
North Carolina: 0(-90,937)
Pennsylvania: -25,619(-707,303)
Texas: +32,168(+1,073,799)
Wisconsin: -1393(-33,710)

All States: +77,111(-5,295,994)
Democrat %: 48.50%
Republican %: 41.43%

EC: 340(D)-198(R)
aggiehawg
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More crawfishing by Silver.
Prosperdick
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aggiehawg said:



More crawfishing by Silver.
I've noticed that nitwit loves the word "obvious", it's his crutch word and likes to modify it. It also speaks to how condescending he is. Will LOVE to watch that weasel eat sh*t on Election Day.
aTm2004
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Translation: Prepare for Trump to win
JAG03
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I know you said before but can you explain how you are getting yours numbers? Thanks for taking the time to do this it's very informative.
will25u
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JAG03 said:

I know you said before but can you explain how you are getting yours numbers? Thanks for taking the time to do this it's very informative.
I just use TargetSmart's modeled votes.
StoneCold99
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aggiehawg said:



More crawfishing by Silver.
Now THAT is a crawfish!! Right on time too! He must have had a terrible taste in his mouth tweeting that, but the tides- they are a-turnin'!
Legend
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FbgTxAg said:

This is over a week now of consistent polling. Will it be enough (along with the increased Hispanic support) to offset the Soccer Moms and Seniors that are defecting from Trump?


We will have to see next week, but I'm not sure if the suburban women and senior defection will be as great as predicted. Especially, the seniors. Some may not love the Covid response, but that has certainly died down a bit with time (Europe is a mess too, Fatality rate is way down, even the olds who get it largely recover, etc.) But most seniors love America. They grew up in an era we celebrate people like Thomas Jefferson, George Washington and Abe Lincoln. Seeing those statues come down and stores looted, while the Dems sat back for months and either tacitly or affirmatively supported these riots, otherwise known as "peaceful protests" doesn't sit well with that generation. Some will be turned off by Trump's twitter and non-traditional conduct, but I think it's way exaggerated.

For example, see Jack Nicklaus. Both he and his wife had Covid. He's been one of the highest paid endorsers in sports years after his career. He felt the need to endorse Trump.

Rocag
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I think any hedging is a result of the fact that odds aren't prophesies. Even if we accept the idea that Trump has about a 10% chance of winning (per 538) that doesn't mean Trump will definitely lose. For a sports comparison consider if the #1 ranked college football team was playing an unranked team at home. The #1 team would be, and should be, considered a heavy favorite. But they could still lose. It happens. That doesn't, however, mean that the oddsmakers were wrong to consider the #1 ranked team the favorite to begin with.

Personally, I think the polls showing Biden about 8% ahead nationally are probably pretty accurate. It's in line with the results of the 2018 elections in which Democratic House candidates received about 8.6% more votes than their Republican counterparts.

If the polls are wrong this election I doubt they are going to be wrong in the same ways as many state polls were in 2016 for several reasons. For one, there are far fewer undecideds this time around than there were in 2016. Biden's favorability ratings are also much higher than Clinton's were, meaning that smaller pool of undecideds is probably less likely to break for Trump like they did in 2016. And to add to that, there's no Comey letter equivalent this year. I know you guys want the Hunter Biden stuff to be, but it just isn't resonating with voters in a similar way. Even Ted Cruz is saying that the Hunter Biden story isn't swaying voters. Another important factor is that the 2016 state polls didn't weigh results by education and missed the support Trump had especially with white voters without a college degree. Most polls have noted that and corrected it.

So yes, I think Biden should be considered the favorite to win the election. Will he? We won't know until the results come in.
FbgTxAg
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rgag12
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Good, AZ and PA are the key Trump states now. AZ is the most important because it gives Trump realistic paths should PA not go his way
centexaggie2010
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Rocag said:

For a sports comparison consider if the #1 ranked college football team was playing an unranked team at home. The #1 team would be, and should be, considered a heavy favorite. But they could still lose. It happens. That doesn't, however, mean that the oddsmakers were wrong to consider the #1 ranked team the favorite to begin with.

Are you saying Biden is the equivalent of the #1 ranked team in the nation, and Trump is unranked? I think they're much closer than that.
Artorias
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Rocag said:

Personally, I think the polls showing Biden about 8% ahead nationally are probably pretty accurate. It's in line with the results of the 2018 elections in which Democratic House candidates received about 8.6% more votes than their Republican counterparts.
Trump != congressional R's.

Not. Even. Close.

aTm2004
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Quote:

Personally, I think the polls showing Biden about 8% ahead nationally are probably pretty accurate. It's in line with the results of the 2018 elections in which Democratic House candidates received about 8.6% more votes than their Republican counterparts.
National polls do not mean anything. Trump's not playing to win the national election, he's playing to win the White House. That's what people are forgetting. He doesn't need the approval of people in San Francisco, NYC, DC, etc. He needs the approval of the people in a few key states, which he has more of than many want to admit.
Rocag
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centexaggie2010: No, I don't think Biden would be considered that much of a favorite. Just trying to make a point that all the polls can give you are predictions. Something with a 90% of happening can still not happen. I've heard Nate Silver make the same point on several occasions which is why he is getting accused of hedging now.

atm2004: It's wrong to say that national polls don't mean anything, even given that the electoral college decides. State polls are of course more useful but national trends do have plenty of affects on a state by state basis. The map for an 8% Biden advantage is almost definitely not going to look the same as a 2% Clinton advantage. Given the very slim margins of victory in several states that Trump won in 2016 and needs to win in 2020 that overall difference is going to have more local consequences.

Artorias: That's true, but I still think 2018 is probably more relevant than you're assuming. Polls on party preference remain similar. There's also the fact that the vast majority of polls show more voters disapproving of Trump than approving (Rasmussen of course typically disagrees). So while there may be enthusiasm among Republicans to vote FOR Trump don't discount enthusiasm among Democrats to vote AGAINST Trump.
 
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