I have seen a few #WalkAway youtube videos of former Democrats that said they will vote for Trump this election.
What gives you confidence for November?
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Last: 3 yr ago by Tone2002
Just an Ag said:All hands on deck for PA! Without Penn, Biden may wind up in the pen.will25u said:
Obama, AND Bernie? PA must not be looking too good.
He will be sunk for sure. It's looking like Trump is going to pull out FL, AZ, GA, and most likely NC. That means Trump only needs one of WI, MI, or PA. To me, those three states are the race
MostlyHarmless said:I just looked up the 2016 results and Miami-Dade went with Clinton 624,146 to Trump's 333,999. So percentage wise about 1% better this time around.Rendered Fat said:What am I missing here...why is this good?will25u said:
Posted without comment except for... WOW!
Early voting usually favors Dems since Republicans usually vote more on Election Day so the number you took from 2016 was the final tally which means even better for Trump.
To put another way I bet the numbers 2 weeks from Election Day for Miami-Dade 2016 showed Hillary with a much bigger lead than Biden currently holds.
Ground game in strong for Trump. Newly registered voters are much more likely to vote and even if they don't fell so inclined, the Trump campaign likely has their contact information to prod them to do so.
No such organization by the Biden campaign.
Thanks for posting. Good info to know.
No such organization by the Biden campaign.
Thanks for posting. Good info to know.
There is also a large number of democrat registered voters who did not switch registration because there was no primary for Trump. Voting for the dems in their primary was low remember.
I think he takes all three, plus Minnesota.Quote:
He will be sunk for sure. It's looking like Trump is going to pull out FL, AZ, GA, and most likely NC. That means Trump only needs one of WI, MI, or PA. To me, those three states are the race
And Nevada!!aggiehawg said:I think he takes all three, plus Minnesota.Quote:
He will be sunk for sure. It's looking like Trump is going to pull out FL, AZ, GA, and most likely NC. That means Trump only needs one of WI, MI, or PA. To me, those three states are the race
Very true. Particularly for older Dems, they often don't switch parties formally, just start voting R. In some states Trump managed to get more votes than all of the Dem candidates combined.Yukon Cornelius said:
There is also a large number of democrat registered voters who did not switch registration because there was no primary for Trump. Voting for the dems in their primary was low remember.
https://nypost.com/2020/06/20/trumps-primary-vote-totals-trounce-previous-incumbents-numbers/
aggiehawg said:I think he takes all three, plus Minnesota.Quote:
He will be sunk for sure. It's looking like Trump is going to pull out FL, AZ, GA, and most likely NC. That means Trump only needs one of WI, MI, or PA. To me, those three states are the race
So what makes you think he will win all of those states? I just don't see it. Are the polls VERY far off everywhere?
I am ALL for Trump. But there are so many numbers out there that just don't look good.
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
Not quite sold on Nevada yet. Although it's certainly possible.barnyard1996 said:And Nevada!!aggiehawg said:I think he takes all three, plus Minnesota.Quote:
He will be sunk for sure. It's looking like Trump is going to pull out FL, AZ, GA, and most likely NC. That means Trump only needs one of WI, MI, or PA. To me, those three states are the race
Hillary received 47.92%, Trump received 45.50% and Johnson received 3.32%. With Johnson out of the equation. there's room for Trump to close the gap from last time.
IIRC Arizona had over a 4% draw for Johnson in 2016. And that bodes well for Trump, there.
Exactly. Of which there are more registered dems voting for Trump than people antcipate
Doesn't the above put him at 258? If so, WI alone would only be 268 and he'd need another state or both ME and NE split EVs. MI or PA alone would do it, but not WI.rgag12 said:Just an Ag said:All hands on deck for PA! Without Penn, Biden may wind up in the pen.will25u said:
Obama, AND Bernie? PA must not be looking too good.
He will be sunk for sure. It's looking like Trump is going to pull out FL, AZ, GA, and most likely NC. That means Trump only needs one of WI, MI, or PA. To me, those three states are the race
(and I'm not being pessimistic on any of the states, just looking purely at the map/#'s in your scenario).
Legend said:Doesn't the above put him at 258? If so, WI alone would only be 268 and he'd need another state or both ME and NE split EVs. MI or PA alone would do it, but not WI.rgag12 said:Just an Ag said:All hands on deck for PA! Without Penn, Biden may wind up in the pen.will25u said:
Obama, AND Bernie? PA must not be looking too good.
He will be sunk for sure. It's looking like Trump is going to pull out FL, AZ, GA, and most likely NC. That means Trump only needs one of WI, MI, or PA. To me, those three states are the race
(and I'm not being pessimistic on any of the states, just looking purely at the map/#'s in your scenario).
Not with ME CD2 and all NE CDs. It would be 270.
Routinely drawing 20-30% of Democrats to his rallies would indicate that is true.Yukon Cornelius said:
Exactly. Of which there are more registered dems voting for Trump than people antcipate
I know a few dems voting Trump this year, and quite a few Independents (mostly co-workers and a few in-laws in the NorthEast).Yukon Cornelius said:
Exactly. Of which there are more registered dems voting for Trump than people antcipate
Shutdowns, riots, and taxes are all the reasons of concern.
My friend no matter what the BS media says...GEORGIA IS NOT IN PLAY FOR HIDDIN BIDEN!!!!
I know the polling data in Georgia and if Biden is needing Georgia to win then he is F'd!!!
I know the polling data in Georgia and if Biden is needing Georgia to win then he is F'd!!!
Legend said:Doesn't the above put him at 258? If so, WI alone would only be 268 and he'd need another state or both ME and NE split EVs. MI or PA alone would do it, but not WI.rgag12 said:Just an Ag said:All hands on deck for PA! Without Penn, Biden may wind up in the pen.will25u said:
Obama, AND Bernie? PA must not be looking too good.
He will be sunk for sure. It's looking like Trump is going to pull out FL, AZ, GA, and most likely NC. That means Trump only needs one of WI, MI, or PA. To me, those three states are the race
(and I'm not being pessimistic on any of the states, just looking purely at the map/#'s in your scenario).
I'm using 270towin's map and it had it 259, I wasn't counting ME2, which trump should get and would put him over the threshold. Not sure about the other 1 point in your calculation. Maybe you or I are not correctly accounting for all of NE's or ME's votes? I had all of NE going to Trump
We are on same page. 258 without either of the NE and ME split EV's. He wins both of those and he has 260. In that case WI would put him at 270.
Its a summary of the RCP averages made into a pretty tweet.
Man I hope you guys are right
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