will25u said:

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Biden gets 10's of people at his speeches.

But 1000's of people line the streets just to see President Trump go down the street.

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will25u said:

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I feel like I am the only one posting on this thread. I'll just let it die.

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Legal Custodian said:

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will25u said:

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I feel like I am the only one posting on this thread. I'll just let it die.

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I don't post, but I'm reading your posts and I enjoy them. Please continue to do so.

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will25u said:

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To test this theory, CloudResearch recently sampled American voters in search of what they term "shy voters." Their results show that Trump supporters were "significantly more reluctant to share their opinions on phone surveys compared to Biden supporters." Almost 12 percent of Republicans and nearly 11 percent of Independents, were also almost twice as likely to be reticent than Democrats (about 5 percent).
These seemingly small percentages could have major November implications. For illustration of roughly how big, look at 2016 exit polling.
In the last presidential election, 36 percent of voters were Democrats, while 33 percent were Republicans and 31 percent were Independents. Applying CloudResearch's "shy voter" percentages to each group yields 9 percent of the electorate as not giving their true candidate preferences.
However, those roughly one in 11 reticent voters are not, as CloudResearch discovered, evenly distributed between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Instead, they run about 2-to-1 in Trump's favor. On the net, they come out to around a 3 percent hidden "Trump bump."

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In other words, there are Trump voters that aren't just saying they're Trump voters, they may actually even be lying about who they voted for out of fear. The numbers that pump up the Democrats on exit polling may be off by a little, but the polling numbers on who is voting Republican is off by a lot.

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One thing to consider, however, is that the left in this election is far more rabid than the left in the last election. Today, we have cancel culture, Antifa, and Trump supporters literally being executed in the streets. The "shy voter" population may be shyer than ever, so that number may be even higher.
The Hill acknowledges this, stating that Trump supporters have been villainized by the left, making the left's problem of acquiring voters that much harder:

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Democrats could find themselves, again, failing to target the voters they need to shore up. This time it could be more than just blue states they miss, but blue constituencies. The key is that Biden's campaign cannot know where hidden Trump supporters are.
To top it off, the hidden Trump supporter problem could grow for the left. The left's violent outbursts are getting worse, or at least less ignorable. The left clearly seems intent in going in that direction or unable to stop it. As incidents get worse, more coverage, or both, they could drive even more Trump supporters underground.

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The left is proving itself to be its own worst enemy just like it did in 2016. It pushes itself too fiercely on the American people like a jealous girl on a man who clearly doesn't want her. Instead of taking the hint and toning it down, they up the chaos, the outrage, and the possessiveness. Just like in 2016, America will do what it can to avoid its crazy ex.

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barnyard1996 said:

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Saltwater Assassin said:

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I choose to believe there are more voters who love this country than there are who hate it.

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"She is against fracking!" said Donald Trump at the White House less than two hours after Biden named Harris, the San Francisco Democrat, as his running mate. "She's against petroleum products. I mean, how do you do that and go into Pennsylvania or Ohio or Oklahoma or the great state of Texas? She's against fracking. Fracking's a big deal."

It's a big deal well beyond Pennsylvania. According to the American Petroleum Institute, "In 2022, job losses under a fracking ban could total 7.5 million or 4.8% of total U.S. jobs with nearly 2.5 million jobs lost in Texas, California and Florida. Other top states for job losses as a share of overall employment include North Dakota, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Wyoming, Louisiana, West Virginia and Kansas."
Of these, "Pennsylvania would be among the states hardest hit, with more than 550,000 job losses in 2022 throughout the economy. In Ohio, the projected negative impacts are similar, as the state could also lose more than 500,000 jobs in 2022."

That's a big, big deal.

It's also a big deal to the Democratic Party union base that a Democrat like Joe Biden wants to count on rather than alienate and outrage.

"I am completely shocked and stunned about the language coming from Joe Biden, allegedly a union guy," said Jim Snell, business agent for Steamfitters Local 420 in southeastern Pennsylvania, whose 4,600 members install piping systems in oil refineries, natural gas plants, and infrastructure projects. "The Democratic Party has kicked the building trades to the curb, and they are all in with the environment groups."

Says Shawn Steffe, business agent for Boilermakers Local 154 in Pittsburgh: "Biden needs to steer his car out of the far-left ditch back to the middle if he wants us to support him. It's not happening. I don't see my members voting for someone who will take away their jobs and pensions over something that has a lot of half-truths to it." Steffe, 53 years old, is a lifelong Democrat who voted for Trump in 2016 and intends to again in 2020.

To win Pennsylvania, Biden needs to appeal to assembly-line guys in pickup trucks, not Green New Deal socialists on scooters. From religious liberty to fracking, he blew it by picking Kamala Harris. It makes you wonder who's advising him and who's already pushing him to the hard left, even before he would get into the White House.

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On August 1, Biden had a 25-point edge in the betting odds. By September 1, Trump had completely made up that deficit and the race was even among the betting public.

In Florida, a state the Trump campaign must win, Biden's lead of 8.4 points in the RealClearPolitics average at the end of July sits now at 1.8, with the latest poll showing President Trump with a three-point lead. Quinnipiac, a pollster that is not perceived as Trump-friendly, shows Biden's lead plummeting 10 points, from 13 to just three.

In Pennsylvania, an absolute must-win state for the Biden campaign, Biden's lead of 8.5 in the RealClearPolitics average near the end of July has been cut in half to 4.2. Monmouth University, again another pollster not viewed as friendly to Trump, shows Biden's lead falling eight points, from 11 to three points.

In Michigan, Wisconsin, and North Carolina, Biden's lead from the end of July to the end of August has been cut significantly, according to the Real Clear Politics average. Arizona is the only state where Biden's lead has grown in the RealClearPolitics average. It should be noted that Arizona's RCP average was significantly affected by a single outlying FOX News poll that claims Trump is down nine points in the state, which he won in 2016. CNBC, by contrast, has Biden up by only two points.

Incredibly, both NBC News and the Cook Political Report continue to rate Florida as "Lean Democrat" according to their "experts." No offense, but do they think people are stupid? This is a state Trump won by more than one point four years ago and a state Democrats were unable to carry in 2018, when they lost both the governor and senate races. The latest Quinnipiac poll shows a 10-point momentum toward Trump, where he trails within the margin of error, where Trafalgar has the president ahead by three points. (For what it's worth, Trafalgar was the only pollster to correctly poll key states in the 2016 and 2018 races.)

The media and the Democrats may not like it, but this race is clearly different from where it was at the end of June, where Trump's job approval had been going down for three straight months and he bottomed out at 41 percent in the RealClearPolitics average. Today Trump's job approval is on a three-month upswing and is over 44 percent in the RealClearPolitics average. Three points may not seem like a lot, but in the real world where the critical battleground states will likely be decided by less than that amount, three points are the difference between winning and losing.

So here is the cold reality the media are for some reason refusing to tell people as the country rounds Labor Day and this campaign really gets into high gear. This race is effectively tied today, Trump has momentum, and Biden is going to have to campaign hard, energize his voters, and earn it if he hopes to unseat the incumbent.

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nortex97 said:

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The 'shy trump voter' phenomenon I am convinced is real; this seems almost completely logical given the violent left in our world today.

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The study, conducted by CloudResearch out of New York, offers this bottom line regardless of whether you are Democrat, Republican, or an Independent: "10.1% of Trump supporters said they were likely to be untruthful on telephone surveys."

Only 5.1 percent of Biden voters say the same.

CloudResearch didn't just come out and ask people if they would lie. Instead, a number of steps were taken for the sake of accuracy.

Participants were first asked about their political preference. Then they were asked about how comfortable they were expressing a true opinion to a phone pollster. Later on, they were asked who they truly supported for president.

When asked why they would lie to a pollster, participants offered up a variety of answers, none all that surprising.

Some said they did not believe their preference would be kept confidential and feel it's dangerous in this current climate to share an opinion that is not the accepted "liberal viewpoint."
In a similar vein, others said they feared reprisal for their choice or that the call was being recorded. Some said they were ashamed of holding an opinion that is "frowned upon."

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Despite my own history of malicious intent, I'm still surprised by the results. As recently as last week, I laid out why I didn't believe in the "shy Trump voter" theory while appearing as a guest on Dennis Miller's podcast. Miller did a pretty good job convincing me otherwise, but I'm still surprised.

Nevertheless, the study is convincing. If the study had asked only if you are willing to a pollster, that wouldn't convince me. My guess is that people are more likely to say they would lie to a pollster than are actually willing to lie to a pollster if that makes sense. The way CloudResearch went about it, though, is probably the smartest way possible. They also took their time, sampling 1,000 registered voters online for more than a week, between August 19 and 27.

We'll know soon enough.

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