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Former Vice President Joe Biden's lead over President Trump in the 2020 presidential race, once as high as 15 points in some polls, has been cut to just 1 point in the latest Rasmussen Reports survey shared with Secrets.

The pollster, one of those who most closely called the 2016 popular vote, said that Biden is edging out Trump 46%-45%, well within the margin of error.

That is a dramatic change from its last status report on the race, when Biden led Trump 48%-44% over a week ago.

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barnyard1996 said:

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AgBQ-00 said:

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barnyard1996 said:

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They have it as a toss-up?

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barnyard1996 said:

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AgBQ-00 said:

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barnyard1996 said:

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They have it as a toss-up?

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It has sharply gone from 65/35 to 50/50 in the last two weeks.

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barnyard1996 said:

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AgBQ-00 said:

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barnyard1996 said:

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They have it as a toss-up?

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It has sharply gone from 65/35 to 50/50 in the last two weeks.

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agforlife97 said:

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barnyard1996 said:

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AgBQ-00 said:

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barnyard1996 said:

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They have it as a toss-up?

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It has sharply gone from 65/35 to 50/50 in the last two weeks.

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Yep. I think if the election were held today, Trump would win the electoral college 284-254. And he basically has only just started campaigning. The riots along with defund the police are going to be the nail in the coffin for the D's this time.

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barnyard1996 said:

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Trump +2 in Michigan per Trafalgar poll (yes they lean R).


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_biden-6761.html

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Premium said:

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barnyard1996 said:

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Trump +2 in Michigan per Trafalgar poll (yes they lean R).


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_biden-6761.html

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Or maybe everyone is so far left this is actually weighted correctly. Can you substantiate their methods being "lean right"?

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will25u said:

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I do think Trafalgar is right leaning, but them Rasmussen, and a few others were pretty damned close at predicting the election in 2016. I believe Rasmussen got the spread exactly right in 2016.

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Premium said:

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will25u said:

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I do think Trafalgar is right leaning, but them Rasmussen, and a few others were pretty damned close at predicting the election in 2016. I believe Rasmussen got the spread exactly right in 2016.

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You can attack the organization all you want, but what are their methods, that's all that matters. It's been proven other polls way over sample Democrats. How does Trafalger methods lean right?

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barnyard1996 said:

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Premium said:

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will25u said:

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I do think Trafalgar is right leaning, but them Rasmussen, and a few others were pretty damned close at predicting the election in 2016. I believe Rasmussen got the spread exactly right in 2016.

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You can attack the organization all you want, but what are their methods, that's all that matters. It's been proven other polls way over sample Democrats. How does Trafalger methods lean right?

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Who is attacking anyone? Trafalgar put out some good news on Michigan. Unlike, the libs, I made the statement that this poll has been know to lean right.

For example a Wisconsin poll showed them way oversampling seniors which is a demographic that went Trump last time.

It is what it is?

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• In 2016 Trump won with a HUGE number of first time voters while losing out on a HUGE amount of Never Trump voters.
• I can't find a single Trump '16 voter not voting for him this time around.
• I have found a HUGE number of conservative/moderate voters who didn't vote in '16 or voted 3rd party that are now ENTHUSIASTICALLY voting for Trump
• I live in the heart of Dallas and sadly am surrounded by liberals everywhere I look. In 2018 70% of front yards had beto signs posted and '16 had at least 20% of yards with Hillary signs. This year, not only am I not seeing Biden signs, but I'm not seeing any down ticket democrat signs. Instead, I'm seeing down ticket Republican signs. People are too afraid of property destruction to have a Trump sign.

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The study, conducted by CloudResearch out of New York, offers this bottom line regardless of whether you are Democrat, Republican, or an Independent: "10.1% of Trump supporters said they were likely to be untruthful on telephone surveys."

Only 5.1 percent of Biden voters say the same.

CloudResearch didn't just come out and ask people if they would lie. Instead, a number of steps were taken for the sake of accuracy.

Participants were first asked about their political preference. Then they were asked about how comfortable they were expressing a true opinion to a phone pollster. Later on, they were asked who they truly supported for president.

When asked why they would lie to a pollster, participants offered up a variety of answers, none all that surprising.

Some said they did not believe their preference would be kept confidential and feel it's dangerous in this current climate to share an opinion that is not the accepted "liberal viewpoint."
In a similar vein, others said they feared reprisal for their choice or that the call was being recorded. Some said they were ashamed of holding an opinion that is "frowned upon."

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Despite my own history of malicious intent, I'm still surprised by the results. As recently as last week, I laid out why I didn't believe in the "shy Trump voter" theory while appearing as a guest on Dennis Miller's podcast. Miller did a pretty good job convincing me otherwise, but I'm still surprised.

Nevertheless, the study is convincing. If the study had asked only if you are willing to a pollster, that wouldn't convince me. My guess is that people are more likely to say they would lie to a pollster than are actually willing to lie to a pollster if that makes sense. The way CloudResearch went about it, though, is probably the smartest way possible. They also took their time, sampling 1,000 registered voters online for more than a week, between August 19 and 27.

We'll know soon enough.

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nortex97 said:

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Not sure if source but I think it is a big number!

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Cheetah01 said:

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nortex97 said:

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Not sure if source but I think it is a big number!

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That seems about 100M high? Anyone know this data source?

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MostlyHarmless said:

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Cheetah01 said:

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nortex97 said:

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Not sure if source but I think it is a big number!

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That seems about 100M high? Anyone know this data source?

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There was a report that the RNC had six times the number of viewers of the DNC on C-SPAN. I believe someone took the "six times" and applied it to the 21.4M to get the 128.4M number

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nortex97 said:

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The 'shy trump voter' phenomenon I am convinced is real; this seems almost completely logical given the violent left in our world today.

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The study, conducted by CloudResearch out of New York, offers this bottom line regardless of whether you are Democrat, Republican, or an Independent: "10.1% of Trump supporters said they were likely to be untruthful on telephone surveys."

Only 5.1 percent of Biden voters say the same.

CloudResearch didn't just come out and ask people if they would lie. Instead, a number of steps were taken for the sake of accuracy.

Participants were first asked about their political preference. Then they were asked about how comfortable they were expressing a true opinion to a phone pollster. Later on, they were asked who they truly supported for president.

When asked why they would lie to a pollster, participants offered up a variety of answers, none all that surprising.

Some said they did not believe their preference would be kept confidential and feel it's dangerous in this current climate to share an opinion that is not the accepted "liberal viewpoint."
In a similar vein, others said they feared reprisal for their choice or that the call was being recorded. Some said they were ashamed of holding an opinion that is "frowned upon."

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Despite my own history of malicious intent, I'm still surprised by the results. As recently as last week, I laid out why I didn't believe in the "shy Trump voter" theory while appearing as a guest on Dennis Miller's podcast. Miller did a pretty good job convincing me otherwise, but I'm still surprised.

Nevertheless, the study is convincing. If the study had asked only if you are willing to a pollster, that wouldn't convince me. My guess is that people are more likely to say they would lie to a pollster than are actually willing to lie to a pollster if that makes sense. The way CloudResearch went about it, though, is probably the smartest way possible. They also took their time, sampling 1,000 registered voters online for more than a week, between August 19 and 27.

We'll know soon enough.

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What gives you confidence for November?

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In the latest monthly Democracy Institute (DI)/Sunday Express poll President Trump has 48 per cent of the popular support over the former vice president's 45 per cent. In the key swing states the gap is even bigger, with 49 per cent for Trump to 42 per cent for Biden giving the President a seven-point lead. The DI polls have consistently shown more positive results for the President than other surveys. While most suggest a Democrat lead, the monthly DI polls have been more favourable to Trump.

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