Rocag said:

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atm2004: It's wrong to say that national polls don't mean anything, even given that the electoral college decides. State polls are of course more useful but national trends do have plenty of affects on a state by state basis. The map for an 8% Biden advantage is almost definitely not going to look the same as a 2% Clinton advantage. Given the very slim margins of victory in several states that Trump won in 2016 and needs to win in 2020 that overall difference is going to have more local consequences.

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Rocag said:

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I think that take is a bit silly. The people responding to the national polls live in states. A significant change in national polls (like 6%) is going to show up in state polls somewhere. And, if we look at the 2020 state polls, it has. Biden is polling several points better than Clinton did in several important swing states at the same point in the election and with far fewer undecided voters.

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West Texas Lawyer said:

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What gives me confidence in November:

• Numerous friends I know that did not vote for Trump in 2016 and/or who were life-long democrats (or a-political) who have voted for Trump this cycle.

• The black security guard who cornered my buddy at the bank this morning after noticing his "I voted" sticker who then proceeded to talk to my buddy for 15 minutes about why he also voted for Trump and how tons of black men he knows are doing the same because Trump has been a positive force for the black community.

• The Pakistani liquor store owner around the corner from me who, once I told him I planned on watching the last debate two weeks back, could not stop telling me how excited he was to vote for Trump because "he has been the greatest president this wonderful country has ever seen."

All antidotal; yes I know. But I've not heard a single story such as these about Biden voters.

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Rocag said:

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Perhaps, but I am not convinced that is the case. Even if the majority of the swing were in non-competitive states a 1%-2% shift to Biden from the 2016 results would flip Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Florida.

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yukmonkey said:

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Literally the only reason to vote for Biden is that you do not like Trump's demeanor or tweets. That is it. Anyone I know who is voting for Biden is doing so purely out of a dislike for Trump.

They have never been exposed to a CEO-type. If they had, they'd understand the behavior more. But the results are there. If you want a President to be nice more than you want him to deliver for the American people, I cannot help you.

On the opposite side, you have riots, violence, defunding police, national lockdowns, high taxes, on and on. Oh, and your candidate looks like he is one bad fall away from death at any second. What a compelling case for your vote.

Hopefully this shows up en masse from the American voter.

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Rocag said:

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You are free to that opinion. I disagree with it. We'll know how accurate the polls were once the results come in.

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jrdaustin said:

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I have the common sense to see that the Democratic behavior during and after the 2016 election, during the Meuller investigation, during the runup and through impeachment, during the confirmation of Kavanaugh, and during the testimony of Bill Barr at his latest hearing is NOT the behavior I want from my public officials.

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aTm2004 said:

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The same swing states where riots have ravaged (hell, are currently ravaging) their cities? The same swing states that are calling to defund the police force? The same swing states where Biden wants to kill the industry they live on? The same swing state that has been locked down for months, just had stronger lock down orders issued from their governor, and Biden wants to extend even longer and to more states? Those swing states?

The dems love to talk about the suburban white woman and how their vote can swing the election. Do you know what doesn't resonate with suburban white women? Riots. Violence. No enforcement of the law. Keeping their children out of school. Threatening to kill the industry they or their spouse works in. But hey, I've known my wife for almost 13 years and still haven't figured her out...maybe the dems have.

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Rocag said:

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Well I have some serious issues with the premise of the question, but I think those can be set aside and get to the heart of the question which is "Are the polls trustworthy?" It's a good and fair question, and I think the response is that it depends on the poll in question. I expect the actual results to be within the margin on error for the more respected polls.

You can find plenty of Republican leaning polls or polls from conservative media outlets that show a Biden advantage nationally and in important swing states. For example, Rasmussen shows Biden up 3% in Florida today. Do you think they are showing that result for some nefarious purpose? Are they anti-Trump?

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Quote:

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Minnesota Democrats estimate that as many as 250,000 white residents who didn't go to collegethe heart of Trump's baseweren't registered to vote in 2016. Republicans are taking pains to find them. While Democrats in the state have largely suspended door-to-door campaigning because of the pandemic, Republicans have kept at it. Last week, volunteers knocked on more than 130,000 doors in the state, a campaign official told me. "This is the largest organization that we've seen a Republican put into this state, in terms of advertising dollars, principal visits, and staff on the ground," Ken Martin, the chair of the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, told me. "There's no doubt that they have a significant operation here."

Trump's campaign has booked more than $1.2 million in TV advertising in Minnesota in the final week of the campaignmore than it spent there in the preceding three weeks combined, according to Advertising Analytics, which tracks campaigns' ad spending. Vice President Mike Pence held a rally in northern Minnesota on Monday, the latest in a series of visits to the state by Trump and top surrogates.

Overall, the Trump campaign has deployed 60 staffers in Minnesota, a level of Republican intensity surpassing that of any race in memory, both parties say. (Democrats say they have many more staffers on the ground in the state).

Biden's lead in Minnesota stands at 5 percentage points, according to the Real Clear Politics average of polls. That number could be inflated. State-level polling proved flawed in 2016: Clinton won Minnesota by 1.5 percentage points even though some of the final polls showed her up by double digits. "Knowing what we do about 2016, we would all be foolish to imbue the polls with undue certainty," Charles Franklin, a pollster, told me. Both Biden and Trump are scheduled to make dueling appearances in Minnesota today.

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barnyard1996 said:

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The right leaning pollsters are the only ones getting Florida right.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_biden-6841.html#polls

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MaroonStain said:

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FbgTxAg said:

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We are going to need a math and logic class for the reslibs, CMs and Never Trumpers.

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StandUpforAmerica said:

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Fingers crossed...

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titan said:

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StandUpforAmerica said:

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Fingers crossed...

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Wait a second, never though of that. If Trump doesn't have a second term, is he indeed eligible to run again in 2024 against whatever disaster the Democrats would definitely have caused by then?

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Quote:

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Wait a second, never though of that. If Trump doesn't have a second term, is he indeed eligible to run again in 2024 against whatever disaster the Democrats would definitely have caused by then?

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