What gives you confidence for November?

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rgag12
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12:14p, 10/26/20
AG


The poll herding has begun
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will25u
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12:32p, 10/26/20
Updated Spreadsheet

10/26 Daily Update 1/2(There are 2 updates usually a day)

Battleground States Daily Lean(Vote lead):

+ = Republican Lead
- = Democrat Lead

Arizona: +24(-65,539)
Florida: +25,313(-178,522)
Iowa: 0(-62,254)
Michigan: -2,519(-99,354)
Minnesota: -5,324(-209,942)
Nevada: +2,635(-18,752)
North Carolina: +775(-173,436)
Pennsylvania: 0(-533,916)
Texas: +40,604(+918,081)
Wisconsin: -7,835(-48,103)

All States: +23,243(-4,782,525)

EC: 347(D)-191(R)
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Barnyard96
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In reply to rgag12 • 12:37p, 10/26/20
AG
rgag12 said:


The poll herding has begun
Poll has Trump at +2.9 and RCP lists as +2 in the averages.
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Jet Black
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12:42p, 10/26/20
JAG03
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12:55p, 10/26/20
AG
Was there any noticeable bump in the dem vote totals after yesterday's souls to polls or whatever they call it. I know that is a big get out the vote for the dems.
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will25u
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1:24p, 10/26/20
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aginlakeway
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2:18p, 10/26/20
AG
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
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Legal Custodian
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In reply to aginlakeway • 2:45p, 10/26/20
AG
aginlakeway said:
Here's another quote from this article:

Quote:
In areas that are slow to count mail-in votes, the initial results will probably appear disproportionately Republican early on election night, only to have the margin shift in Democrats' favor as absentee ballots are counted. If the election does hinge on Pennsylvania, it may mean an agonizing wait before a winner is declared.

Don't worry Democrats! If the initial results are showing Trump won, just wait until we count all the votes we have stored in the back.

Can't get more transparent than that, wow.
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Verne Lundquist
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2:45p, 10/26/20
AG

Ohio is ours
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StandUpforAmerica
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5:03p, 10/26/20
I keep hoping this guy is right....

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Silvertaps
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In reply to StandUpforAmerica • 5:08p, 10/26/20
AG
StandUpforAmerica said:
I keep hoping this guy is right....

Yea, this guy has been in the landslide for Trump group for quite a while now. He was apparently part of the Trump 2016 internal polling team (correct me if I'm wrong on that?). His predictions for 2018 was a bit off but he fully admits his shortcomings on that election and learned from it. Great thing is he doesn't look at polls at all...just trends in Early Voting and Election Days.
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will25u
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7:24p, 10/26/20
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Seven Costanza
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In reply to will25u • 7:55p, 10/26/20
AG
will25u said:
Updated Spreadsheet

10/26 Daily Update 1/2(There are 2 updates usually a day)

Battleground States Daily Lean(Vote lead):

+ = Republican Lead
- = Democrat Lead

Arizona: +24(-65,539)
Florida: +25,313(-178,522)
Iowa: 0(-62,254)
Michigan: -2,519(-99,354)
Minnesota: -5,324(-209,942)
Nevada: +2,635(-18,752)
North Carolina: +775(-173,436)
Pennsylvania: 0(-533,916)
Texas: +40,604(+918,081)
Wisconsin: -7,835(-48,103)

All States: +23,243(-4,782,525)

EC: 347(D)-191(R)
How is the total turnout right now in comparison with the same date in the last election? I ask because the prevailing thought right now is obviously that the Democrats are voting early and the Republicans will be voting en masse on election day (as they do historically), so smaller Democrat leads right now than in 2016 means those leads will be wiped out on election day. But do we know that Republicans aren't also early voting in huge numbers right now for a variety of reasons, and thus the election day comeback is never really going to materialize?
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Premium
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In reply to will25u • 8:01p, 10/26/20
AG
will25u said:


I think they are relying on historical early voting a bit much this year. Everyone I know voting for Trump has already voted. Lots of early voting this year on both sides.

Do not know what to think of it. No one knows for sure.
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to Premium • 8:07p, 10/26/20
AG
Premium said:
will25u said:


I think they are relying on historical early voting a bit much this year. Everyone I know voting for Trump has already voted. Lots of early voting this year on both sides.

Do not know what to think of it. No one knows for sure.
Somewhere in his tweets, he's previously explained that his numbers factor in 2016 voters + new voter registrations since then.

They're basically looking at number of remaining uncast votes.
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Verne Lundquist
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8:07p, 10/26/20
AG

John Roberts is a [censored]. [url=https://twitter.com/ap/status/1320887209956954117?s=21][/url]

How do you agree with this but not the PA case.

Stupid idiot
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centexaggie2010
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In reply to Verne Lundquist • 8:25p, 10/26/20
AG
Verne Lundquist said:

John Roberts is a [censored]. [url=https://twitter.com/ap/status/1320887209956954117?s=21][/url]

How do you agree with this but not the PA case.

Stupid idiot


From my understanding, the PA case came through the state courts, so SCOTUS ruled that the state ruling could stand. The WI case came through the federal courts, so they upheld the Federal Court ruling. Seem the same on the surface, but there are probably more differences when you get more granular.
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Big Al 1992
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In reply to will25u • 8:46p, 10/26/20
AG
will25u said:


It just moved.
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EnderWiggin
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In reply to will25u • 9:19p, 10/26/20
How are you determining republicans or democrat votes when the states don't publish who the vote was for?
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will25u
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9:20p, 10/26/20
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will25u
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In reply to EnderWiggin • 9:21p, 10/26/20
EnderWiggin said:
How are you determining republicans or democrat votes when the states don't publish who the vote was for?
Just using TargetSmart modeling. It looks at previous votes, donations, etc. somehow.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to will25u • 9:23p, 10/26/20
AG
will25u said:
EnderWiggin said:
How are you determining republicans or democrat votes when the states don't publish who the vote was for?
Just using TargetSmart modeling. It looks at previous votes, donations, etc. somehow.
Okay. Just understand that the info is not even circumstantial. Purely speculative.
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EnderWiggin
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In reply to will25u • 9:31p, 10/26/20
Okay. For the record, I'm impressed with the amount of work you put into it. I'm trying to do the same on my side. I was showing Democrats leading WI just using the last election county splits.
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will25u
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In reply to aggiehawg • 9:54p, 10/26/20
Yes I understand. .
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AgBQ-00
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9:54p, 10/26/20
AG
Communists aren't people. They are property of the state.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to centexaggie2010 • 10:05p, 10/26/20
AG
Quote:
From my understanding, the PA case came through the state courts, so SCOTUS ruled that the state ruling could stand.
A 4-4 ruling means the lower courts ruling stand because they take no position.

But it never means that a lower court decision is correct on the law. Seldom does.
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ravingfans
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In reply to aggiehawg • 11:10p, 10/26/20
AG
aggiehawg said:
Quote:
From my understanding, the PA case came through the state courts, so SCOTUS ruled that the state ruling could stand.
A 4-4 ruling means the lower courts ruling stand because they take no position.

But it never means that a lower court decision is correct on the law. Seldom does.


Can they re-vote on it tomorrow???
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FbgTxAg
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In reply to ravingfans • 7:54a, 10/27/20
AG
ravingfans said:
aggiehawg said:
Quote:
From my understanding, the PA case came through the state courts, so SCOTUS ruled that the state ruling could stand.
A 4-4 ruling means the lower courts ruling stand because they take no position.

But it never means that a lower court decision is correct on the law. Seldom does.


Can they re-vote on it tomorrow???
Actually, yes.
The greatest argument ever made against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter.
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StandUpforAmerica
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8:51a, 10/27/20
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will25u
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9:01a, 10/27/20
Updated Spreadsheet

10/27 Daily Update 1/2(There are 2 updates usually a day)

Oklahoma finally with an update which moves the EC votes over to the Republican side.

Battleground States Daily Lean(Vote lead):

+ = Republican Lead
- = Democrat Lead

Arizona: +4,108(-61,431)
Florida: +5,800(-172,722)
Iowa: 119(-62,135)
Michigan: -5,848(-105,202)
Minnesota: -1,447(-211,389)
Nevada: -3,216(-21,968)
North Carolina: -1,472(-174,908)
Pennsylvania: -84,449(-618,365)
Texas: +72(+918,153)
Wisconsin: -1,877(-49,980)

All States: -438,038(-5,220,563)

EC: 340(D)-198(R)
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FbgTxAg
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In reply to will25u • 9:04a, 10/27/20
AG
will25u said:
Updated Spreadsheet

10/26 Daily Update 1/2(There are 2 updates usually a day)

Oklahoma finally with an update which moves the EC votes over to the Republican side.

Battleground States Daily Lean(Vote lead):

+ = Republican Lead
- = Democrat Lead

Arizona: +4,108(-61,431)
Florida: +5,800(-172,722)
Iowa: 119(-62,135)
Michigan: -5,848(-105,202)
Minnesota: -1,447(-211,389)
Nevada: -3,216(-21,968)
North Carolina: -1,472(-174,908)
Pennsylvania: -84,449(-618,365)
Texas: +72(+918,153)
Wisconsin: -1,877(-49,980)

All States: -438,038(-5,220,563)

EC: 340(D)-198(R)
One of those States is not like the others. Battleground State my ass.
The greatest argument ever made against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter.
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In reply to will25u • 9:10a, 10/27/20
will25u
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In reply to [removed post] • 9:14a, 10/27/20
The number before the parenthesis is change from previous day. The number in parenthesis is the total difference in votes.

So Arizona - +4,108(-61,431)

Since it is a +4,108 the Republicans netted 4,108 more votes than Democrats since the previous update.
Since the -61,431 is negative, OVERALL the Democrats have a 61,431 TOTAL vote advantage in Arizona.
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Legal Custodian
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In reply to [removed post] • 9:14a, 10/27/20
AG
The first number is the change in votes received since the last update. For example, Arizona had 4,108 more republican votes than democratic votes since the last update. Then the number in parentheses is the total, so even though the R's had 4,108 more votes, they are still 61,431 votes behind the D's in returned ballots in total.
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will25u
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In reply to Legal Custodian • 9:16a, 10/27/20
Legal Custodian said:
The first number is the change in votes received since the last update. For example, Arizona had 4,108 more republican votes than democratic votes since the last update. Then the number in parentheses is the total, so even though the R's had 4,108 more votes, they are still 61,431 votes behind the D's in returned ballots in total.
Yes, thank you.

As an aside. I will try to today reverse the dates so the most recent date is to the far left, with the older dates to the right.
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