What gives you confidence for November?

148,890 Views | 1681 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by Tone2002
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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In reply to rgag12 • 5:27p, 10/28/20
rgag12 said:
MaroonStain said:
rgag12 said:
JBenn06 said:
So I'm assuming this is a good number for the republicans?


It means if this was the 2016 election then republicans just surpassed the total # of dem votes after all votes are counted (I.e. VBM+EV+Election day vote)


Republican blowout in FL and chipping at received popular vote count?


It could be a blowout if Election Day vote in 2020 is similar to 2016. The Latino vote of Miami makes me think this could get really bad for Biden, but on the other hand republicans could be voting earlier instead of on election day


There was someone weighing this with their model. He/She ended up projecting close to 11M ballots in Florida and a Trump win between 3-4 points.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Mostly Foggy Recollection • 5:27p, 10/28/20
AG
Quote:
It's a net scenario, so no. Rs are way outperforming in South Florida.
And that is critical. The only way Dems win Florida is if they really run up the numbers in South Florida to offset the rest of the state. If they don't have those 30+% point advantage there, they lose the state.
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will25u
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6:34p, 10/28/20
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ravingfans
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In reply to rgag12 • 8:34p, 10/28/20
AG
rgag12 said:
TAM85 said:
So what Trump slamming news do the NYT and media come up with between now and ED?


I don't think their plan is to come up with something that will hurt trump personally. The plan is clearly to ramp up Corona fear to a fever pitch by Monday
I bet they go the other direction and say that the Corona problem just subsided for a few days (like a weather pattern) and good for Dems to go out and vote, but Reps must stay home somehow. because ya know precautions and all...

Reps are not staying home at all, but Dems are scared out of their gourds by the MSM, or legacy media or whatever they are being called nowadays...
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will25u
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9:23p, 10/28/20
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coolerguy12
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In reply to will25u • 9:35p, 10/28/20
AG
Update: Joe Biden now has a plan to increase fracking, tariffs, and to emancipate his son. What else would you like him to say in order to vote for him? For an extra $20,000 he will mention you by name at his inauguration and give you spot in the WH
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Cheetah01
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In reply to will25u • 9:45p, 10/28/20
AG
The problem is Biden still leads that poll by .7%. Close, but still has the lead.

Hoping shy Trump effect and riots make up the difference.
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will25u
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9:46p, 10/28/20
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Not a Bot
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In reply to will25u • 10:11p, 10/28/20
AG
I am epically failing in my attempt to post right now. I think I'm on edit number three.

Just ignore me. I'm drinking. And I hope this Twitter guy who is claiming all the numbers in Florida and elsewhere is not totally full of crap
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Verne Lundquist
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10:44p, 10/28/20
AG
On Miami Dade I saw a tweet that in 2016 POTUS was up in early vote then got swamped on Election Day. So that's something to look at down there.
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ttha_aggie_09
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10:55p, 10/28/20
AG


SIAP - you don't have the NG on stand by for protests "that could turn into riots" if Trump is going to lose... we all know which side the rioters are on.
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Captn_Ag05
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10:58p, 10/28/20
AG
That is a large sample (who are all voting how their parents do) in a sort of battleground state.


Quote:
Iowa's Secretary of State Paul Pate's Iowa Youth Straw Poll showed President Donald Trump and (R) Sen. Joni Ernst as winners.

The straw poll included 225 schools and had 31,000 students participate.

The straw poll had Trump at 55%, former Vice President Joe Biden at 32% and Kanye West at 9%.

In the U.S. Senate race Ernst was polled at 53% and (D) Theresa Greenfield at 38%.
https://www.kcci.com/article/iowa-youth-straw-poll-winners-include-trump-ernst/34513482
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Big Al 1992
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6:28a, 10/29/20
AG
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Beerosch
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In reply to Big Al 1992 • 6:42a, 10/29/20
AG
Come on, man.
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Cheetah01
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In reply to Big Al 1992 • 6:45a, 10/29/20
AG
Who is this person?
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FbgTxAg
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6:48a, 10/29/20
AG
Never heard of Election Wizard, but automatically has more credibility than Nate Silver.
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oh no
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6:49a, 10/29/20
AG
that's not a wizard, that's a troll! ...but I want to believe!
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will25u
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7:50a, 10/29/20
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Prosperdick
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In reply to Verne Lundquist • 8:04a, 10/29/20
AG
Verne Lundquist said:
On Miami Dade I saw a tweet that in 2016 POTUS was up in early vote then got swamped on Election Day. So that's something to look at down there.
Hard for Dems to swamp anything on Election Day when most have VBM and the rest are cowering in a corner of their living room. Alone. Wearing a mask.
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rgag12
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8:14a, 10/29/20
AG
BIG if, but IF Trump got Nevada and AZ and somehow pulled off NH, he wouldn't even need one of PA, MI, WI, or MN. The worst he could do is get a tie. If you add ME-2 to that mix then he'd win
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will25u
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8:16a, 10/29/20
Just to put a little perspective on the numbers coming out of PA.

2016

Democrat Total Votes Cast: 2,926,441
Republican Total Votes Cast: 2,970,733

2020

Democrat Early Votes Cast: 1,268,073
Republican Early Votes Cast: 392,652

Democrats have used up 43.3% of their 2016 votes.
Republicans have used up 13.2% of their 2016 votes.

Democrats gained 30,506 registrations since 2016.
Republicans gained 164,778 registrations since 2016.
Republicans net gain 134,272.

So as long as the Republicans come out en mass on ED, we should be good.
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AggieUSMC
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In reply to Verne Lundquist • 8:18a, 10/29/20
AG
Quote:
On Miami Dade I saw a tweet that in 2016 POTUS was up in early vote then got swamped on Election Day. So that's something to look at down there.
Um, no.
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Not a Bot
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8:21a, 10/29/20
AG
All of the assumptions about Florida are that people are waiting until election day, or not waiting until election day depending on the party. A significant change from that, such as more Republicans early voting or Dems waiting until the last day, could throw off the numbers a little bit.
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JB99
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In reply to Prosperdick • 8:22a, 10/29/20
AG
Prosperdick said:
Verne Lundquist said:
On Miami Dade I saw a tweet that in 2016 POTUS was up in early vote then got swamped on Election Day. So that's something to look at down there.
Hard for Dems to swamp anything on Election Day when most have VBM and the rest are cowering in a corner of their living room. Alone. Wearing a mask.
Vote by Mail was their Get out the vote strategy. They've already blew their load.
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will25u
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8:29a, 10/29/20
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Barnyard96
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In reply to Not a Bot • 8:33a, 10/29/20
AG
Cactus Jack said:
All of the assumptions about Florida are that people are waiting until election day, or not waiting until election day depending on the party. A significant change from that, such as more Republicans early voting or Dems waiting until the last day, could throw off the numbers a little bit.
Fair, but the strategy of the Dems was vote early, and the polling was pretty consistent that R's would outvote on election day by double digits.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to JB99 • 8:39a, 10/29/20
AG
Quote:
Vote by Mail was their Get out the vote strategy. They've already blew their load.
Agree. No ground game allowed because of the covid, no canvassing, no door to door interactions, no campaign offices in major cities in swing counties even in battleground states.

But they didn't do their research on how a pure vote by mail GOTV effort would fare in all of the states under the varying laws. Nor did they take into account the mechanisms needed to change the laws in time and the likelihood of getting those changes through.

I know of the reports of the Biden campaign and the DNC sending an army of lawyers out, I suspect as part of the VBM project to institute lawsuits to get by judicial fiat what they couldn't accomplish legislatively. Quite an expensive undertaking as opposed to recruiting volunteers and campaign workers, boots on the ground for the GOTV efforts.

Bold strategy, we'll see how that works out for them.
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Legend
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In reply to Verne Lundquist • 9:03a, 10/29/20
AG
Verne Lundquist said:
On Miami Dade I saw a tweet that in 2016 POTUS was up in early vote then got swamped on Election Day. So that's something to look at down there.
Here is 2016 EV data for Miami Dade:
Republican Democrat Other No Party Affiliation TOTAL
Voted VotebyMail 103,052 124,497 4,022 73,566 305,137
Voted Early 125,302 218,624 6,531 125,381 475,838
Total Early votes 228,354 343,121 10,553 198,947 780,975
Dems outvoted R's 44% to 29% in 2016 early voting. NPA was 25% of the vote.

Total Election Day votes in 2016 were: Dem: 435,076. R's: 289,630 NPA: 266,993.

Clinton won Miami Dade with 624,000 to 334,000. (64% to 34%).

It's hard to see how Trump was ever up in Miami Dade. He would have had to won a huge % of crossover or NPA early, but then not gotten similar results on ED. Not likely.

As of this morning, Dems lead over R's in Miami Dade EV (mail and IPEV) 317,000 to 236,000, which is a 4% improvement for R's over 2016 EV.
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Not a Bot
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In reply to will25u • 9:13a, 10/29/20
AG
Don't the Democrats still have an overall registration advantage over Republicans in PA though?

I have not done a deep dive into how Trump won Pennsylvania last time, but it seems likely a chunk of blue collar Democrats voted for him over Clinton and a big enough portion of Clinton's voter base stayed home in Philadelphia/Pittsburgh.

If that's the case, even with improved registration numbers he will still have to win over a lot of registered Democrats to cross party lines. I think Biden plays better to that group than Clinton did, but I think his gaffe at the debate may have lost some of those folks. Polling data does show that Trump seems to have improved his position with minority voters, and if even a fairly small portion of them go to him who stayed home or voted for Clinton last time he can win the state.
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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In reply to Not a Bot • 9:16a, 10/29/20
Yes. In 2016 D advantage was like 834K

In 2020 it's just shy of 700K. If Biden can turn out his base in high numbers, it wouldn't matter.

The problem is, a lot of those Union Ds in western PA really don't care for the New Democrat party. Philly is a completely different story.
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will25u
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In reply to Not a Bot • 9:23a, 10/29/20
4.2 million Democrats to
3.5 million Republicans.
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Prosperdick
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9:44a, 10/29/20
AG

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aTm2004
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In reply to Prosperdick • 9:46a, 10/29/20
AG
I've been saying I think Trump takes MI. Their Governor hasn't helped Biden at all, and Biden out there wanting more shut downs isn't going to align with the voters. His O&G comments also hurt the auto workers.
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OaklandAg06
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9:50a, 10/29/20
AG
I still think it is an uphill battle for Trump, but it feels a lot like 2016, where the polls all heavily favored Hillary but Trump was doing 3 rallies a day the last week leading up to the election, and the rallies were drawing big crowds.

Taking that into account, and then seeing pictures like this, gives me a little bit of optimism.

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will25u
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9:53a, 10/29/20
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