What gives you confidence for November?
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Last: 3 yr ago by Tone2002
One can go back and find articles from 3-6 months ago where Michigan Democrats (both state and federal office holders) were saying the polls which had Biden up 5, 10, 15 points were completely bogus.
And these weren't stories on OAN, Newsmax, or PJMedia. These were published in the so called mainstream media.
And these weren't stories on OAN, Newsmax, or PJMedia. These were published in the so called mainstream media.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
I'm so confused. I just saw a post from someone saying they had access to the Democrat internal poll numbers that looked really good for them. Now the posts are gone.
A) yes, you can see the excitement at every Biden appearance in every battleground state. The energy around him is palpable and I'm sure your internal polling numbers corroborate that energy and excitement.DemocratAggie said:
A) I work on a campaign and get access to the Biden internal polling numbers and they looked AMAZING
B) Harris is spending one of her last few days in Texas, we got this!
C) SCOTUS keeps ruling our way
D) Public polling looks pretty good, but misses the mark in PA
B) yes, if Kamala can just make 3 quick stops to cackle at dozens of people in Texas, the whole state will turn blue.
C) you found a way to continue "finding" and counting ballots post-marked before 11/3 but not received until late November that somehow is not unconstitutional. Congrats. You need it.
D) yeah, ending the gas drilling industry in PA and continued anarchy and lawlessness should be great for Biden in PA
I was just in the process of responding when it went *poof*.
Sounds like his internal polling is about as sharp as he is.Quote:
I work on a campaign and get access to the Biden internal polling numbers and they looked AMAZING
I must have quoted it just in time!
I would have taken the post seriously...but that second point:
- "Harris is spending one of her last few days in Texas, we got this!".
Texas going blue? Forgot how a good laugh in the morning can substitute for a cup of coffee.
- "Harris is spending one of her last few days in Texas, we got this!".
Texas going blue? Forgot how a good laugh in the morning can substitute for a cup of coffee.
He also has seen the files on who actually killed KennedyCactus Jack said:
I'm so confused. I just saw a post from someone saying they had access to the Democrat internal poll numbers that looked really good for them. Now the posts are gone.
Knows the real numbers of the Clinton kill list
Closely associated with several people who were involved in the Russia investigation and knows Trump is 100% compromised
Has also given Biden a physical and wouldn't be surprised if he could take Usain Bolt in the 100m
Updated Spreadsheet
10/27 Daily Update 1/2(There are 2 updates usually a day)
Another day, another update. Today was another good day for Republicans for battleground states. AND I moved the dates around,
Battleground States Daily Lean(Vote lead):
+ = Republican Lead
- = Democrat Lead
Arizona: +11,881(-18,147)
Florida: +56,102(-57,081)
Iowa: +3,998(-53,891)
Michigan: +1,882(-99,219)
Minnesota: -2,499(-213,427)
Nevada: +3,956(-10,957)
North Carolina: +7(-119,371)
Pennsylvania: -36,414(-681,684)
Texas: +19,618(+1,008,872)
Wisconsin: +7,991(-32,317)
All States: -28,507(-5,274,788)
Democrat %: 48.83%
Republican %: 41.21%
EC: 340(D)-198(R)
10/27 Daily Update 1/2(There are 2 updates usually a day)
Another day, another update. Today was another good day for Republicans for battleground states. AND I moved the dates around,
Battleground States Daily Lean(Vote lead):
+ = Republican Lead
- = Democrat Lead
Arizona: +11,881(-18,147)
Florida: +56,102(-57,081)
Iowa: +3,998(-53,891)
Michigan: +1,882(-99,219)
Minnesota: -2,499(-213,427)
Nevada: +3,956(-10,957)
North Carolina: +7(-119,371)
Pennsylvania: -36,414(-681,684)
Texas: +19,618(+1,008,872)
Wisconsin: +7,991(-32,317)
All States: -28,507(-5,274,788)
Democrat %: 48.83%
Republican %: 41.21%
EC: 340(D)-198(R)
What happened to DemocratAggie's post?
57 STATES! said:
What happened to DemocratAggie's post?
The thread he started was nuked to. I noticed his username was only 1 month old. Maybe staff knew who he was ...
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
aginlakeway said:57 STATES! said:
What happened to DemocratAggie's post?
The thread he started was nuked to. I noticed his username was only 1 month old. Maybe staff knew who he was ...
Apparently, his "internal polling" is showing Biden in a landslide.
Pretty weak. Trying to set up an "i told you so" scenario.dmz233 said:aginlakeway said:57 STATES! said:
What happened to DemocratAggie's post?
The thread he started was nuked to. I noticed his username was only 1 month old. Maybe staff knew who he was ...
Apparently, his "internal polling" is showing Biden in a landslide.
That guy is pretty unhinged when he interacts with republicans
Mostly Foggy Recollection
Joined:
Oct 5, 2020
Posts:
7,632
How long do you want to ignore this user?
aginlakeway said:57 STATES! said:
What happened to DemocratAggie's post?
The thread he started was nuked to. I noticed his username was only 1 month old. Maybe staff knew who he was ...
When staff does that, it's because one IP address is linked to multiple users.
Dang, that turn out model for Miami/Dade is bad for Biden. Hillary won by 30 points in 2016.
I had a lot less confidence and was expecting a Trump win before before voting started. Seeing a lot more "go vote" and "Biden/Harris" signs in the last month (didn't expect any). A lot more Trump signs out in the country though, so Trump's base is definitely real worked up. The early voting numbers makes me think this is now a toss up.
Anyone who is confident is an obvious partisan.
Anyone who is confident is an obvious partisan.
I'm confident the polls are partisan.57 STATES! said:
I had a lot less confidence and was expecting a Trump win before before voting started. Seeing a lot more "go vote" and "Biden/Harris" signs in the last month (didn't expect any). A lot more Trump signs out in the country though, so Trump's base is definitely real worked up. The early voting numbers makes me think this is now a toss up.
Anyone who is confident is an obvious partisan.
Even Rasmussen? They have Biden at 48% and Trump at 47%.
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_oct29
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_oct29
Throw them all in the trash. Nobody understands the electorate this cycle.57 STATES! said:
Even Rasmussen? They have Biden at 48% and Trump at 47%.
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_oct29
There are danger signs flashing everywhere for the Democrats on the early vote. The media keeps pointing to the staggering number of early votes as indication the blue wave is here. However, the underlying demographics are starting to turn Republican in the key battleground states. What's worse is that this is before what will be a blood red election day when a real red wave will crest (assuming Republicans keep voting).
For Republicans this must be tempered with this undeniable fact. If the election ended today Joe Biden would win. The Republicans must continue to turn out at the rates they have been to make this shocker a reality. The trajectory is flashing warning to the Democrats but they have banked the votes to win at this very moment. Unfortunately for the Democrats the election doesn't end today.
For Republicans this must be tempered with this undeniable fact. If the election ended today Joe Biden would win. The Republicans must continue to turn out at the rates they have been to make this shocker a reality. The trajectory is flashing warning to the Democrats but they have banked the votes to win at this very moment. Unfortunately for the Democrats the election doesn't end today.
Most polls are skewed to help the narrative that the race is close. The Dems have a terrible candidate, and if the polls actually showed the truth, many of their voters would stay home. Liberals are front-runners. They talk shlt and hoot and holler when they think they're winning, but when things get tight they come up with loser's limp.
The media and the pollsters have done everything they can do to keep a lukewarm voting base turning out the vote for a milquetoast candidate. If the polls had shown this thing likely Trump for the past two weeks, 20% of their voters would stay home. Nobody likes voting for a loser.
The media and the pollsters have done everything they can do to keep a lukewarm voting base turning out the vote for a milquetoast candidate. If the polls had shown this thing likely Trump for the past two weeks, 20% of their voters would stay home. Nobody likes voting for a loser.
Your posts have been balanced and solid. I don't know what to make of all the conflicting information, but you do a good job of distilling it down. Appreciate it.aginresearch said:
There are danger signs flashing everywhere for the Democrats on the early vote. The media keeps pointing to the staggering number of early votes as indication the blue wave is here. However, the underlying demographics are starting to turn Republican in the key battleground states. What's worse is that this is before what will be a blood red election day when a real red wave will crest (assuming.
For Republicans this must be tempered with this undeniable fact. If the election ended today Joe Biden would win. The Republicans must continue to turn out at the rates they have been to make this shocker a reality. The trajectory is flashing warning to the Democrats but they have banked to votes to win at this very moment. Unfortunately for the Democrats the election doesn't end today.
That's true. Hard to gage Biden voters considering the majority of them are voting against Trump, so you won't see many Biden signs, rallies, etc. But will anti-Trump turn out enough people for boring old Biden?
On the other hand, Trump is very exciting and everyone likes to be on the exciting team and one that feels like a party. He's also the first troll/meme president, and people like a good laugh. Then combine that with the growing conspiracy bloc and the moderate Republicans who will hold their nose and vote for him. That could be a lot of people.
On the other hand, Trump is very exciting and everyone likes to be on the exciting team and one that feels like a party. He's also the first troll/meme president, and people like a good laugh. Then combine that with the growing conspiracy bloc and the moderate Republicans who will hold their nose and vote for him. That could be a lot of people.
Notice that the red areas surging in north Florida are rural. We are seeing a surge in rural votes in Nevada as well. Hopefully that trend continues in PA and MI where rural votes will be the key to Trump's win (not just winning them which he will, but an increased turnout from them).aggiehawg said:
Dang, that turn out model for Miami/Dade is bad for Biden. Hillary won by 30 points in 2016.
That was the Trump ground game's MO during 2016. Get disaffected rural voters to return to the polls.Quote:
Notice that the red areas surging in north Florida are rural. We are seeing a surge in rural votes in Nevada as well. Hopefully that trend continues in PA and MI where rural votes will be the key to Trump's win (not just winning them which he will, but an increased turnout from them).
will25u said:
Updated Spreadsheet
10/27 Daily Update 1/2(There are 2 updates usually a day)
Another day, another update. Today was another good day for Republicans for battleground states. AND I moved the dates around,
Battleground States Daily Lean(Vote lead):
+ = Republican Lead
- = Democrat Lead
Arizona: +11,881(-18,147)
Florida: +56,102(-57,081)
Iowa: +3,998(-53,891)
Michigan: +1,882(-99,219)
Minnesota: -2,499(-213,427)
Nevada: +3,956(-10,957)
North Carolina: +7(-119,371)
Pennsylvania: -36,414(-681,684)
Texas: +19,618(+1,008,872)
Wisconsin: +7,991(-32,317)
All States: -28,507(-5,274,788)
Democrat %: 48.83%
Republican %: 41.21%
EC: 340(D)-198(R)
Yet if you read Twitter Texas is a toss up.
Captn_Ag05 said:Notice that the red areas surging in north Florida are rural. We are seeing a surge in rural votes in Nevada as well. Hopefully that trend continues in PA and MI where rural votes will be the key to Trump's win (not just winning them which he will, but an increased turnout from them).aggiehawg said:
Dang, that turn out model for Miami/Dade is bad for Biden. Hillary won by 30 points in 2016.
The democrats turnout is only slightly high because of the earlier mail in votes I suspect.
Title is misleading.
Quote:
Meanwhile, President Trump is even pulling some support from Democrats. Party Chair Ronna McDaniel posted statistics from Trump's rally in Goodyear, Arizona yesterday, and it turns out that 19.5% of attendees weren't even Republicans. But most significant is that over a third of the crowd didn't vote in 2016 and obviously are inclined to this year.
aggiehawg said:
Title is misleading.Quote:
Meanwhile, President Trump is even pulling some support from Democrats. Party Chair Ronna McDaniel posted statistics from Trump's rally in Goodyear, Arizona yesterday, and it turns out that 19.5% of attendees weren't even Republicans. But most significant is that over a third of the crowd didn't vote in 2016 and obviously are inclined to this year.
I understand it just fine.
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