What gives you confidence for November?
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Last: 3 yr ago by Tone2002
St Paul is where the burbs are turning red.
He is focused on turnout. As in turnout the lights....
He is focused on turnout. As in turnout the lights....
May have missed it...did Biden have a lid called today? If not, 3 days in a row of speaking to the Top Golfers may do him in.
Tiffany is getting good crowds in Ohio...you know the white voter POTUS is supposedly losinf
AgBQ-00 said:Those hosts are glazed over listening to him. There is no way they see for Trump to win.Verne Lundquist said:
My guy
I think it's shock that someone is being honest. Despite my dislike of Moore, he's still a middle American at heart and does appear to understand the concerns of that portion of the country. He may not agree with them but he doesn't discount them at all.
He predicted 2016 correctly and he knows the same **** is happening again.
And no one paid attention to him in 2016 and no one is paying attention now.Quote:
I think it's shock that someone is being honest. Despite my dislike of Moore, he's still a middle American at heart and does appear to understand the concerns of that portion of the country. He may not agree with them but he doesn't discount them at all.
He predicted 2016 correctly and he knows the same **** is happening again.
aggiehawg said:And no one paid attention to him in 2016 and no one is paying attention now.Quote:
I think it's shock that someone is being honest. Despite my dislike of Moore, he's still a middle American at heart and does appear to understand the concerns of that portion of the country. He may not agree with them but he doesn't discount them at all.
He predicted 2016 correctly and he knows the same **** is happening again.
And you can tell the man is angry about it too since yet again the left has ignored middle America. For all his faults, he does legitimate care about the people there and you can easily tell his immense frustration that the left hasn't done anything at all to reach out to them.
Yeah, I'll give him that. For all his success he's never sold out his blue collar roots and become the haughty elite in Hollywood.Quote:
And you can tell the man is angry about it too since yet again the left has ignored middle America. For all his faults, he does legitimate care about the people there and you can easily tell his immense frustration that the left hasn't done anything at all to reach out to them.
He's still dead wrong in most of his policies and stances though.
Cactus Jack said:
All of the assumptions about Florida are that people are waiting until election day, or not waiting until election day depending on the party. A significant change from that, such as more Republicans early voting or Dems waiting until the last day, could throw off the numbers a little bit.
I do think more Rs will be voting early than in previous years, but the numbers coming out of Florida indicate that won't be enough of a difference to change the fundamentals of that race. I think Florida is no longer a concern at all for Trump at this point.
aggiehawg said:
So says the reigning Dunning-Kruger champion.
HoustonAggie37713 said:
https://bongino.com/president-trumps-arizona-rally-20-of-attendees-werent-republicans-36-didnt-vote-in-2016
Yeah, the previously unreached voter is the biggest legit hope for a Trump victory, because by definition those people are less likely to be caught by pollsters and likely to be disregarded if they are because they don't fit the parameters of a "likely voter" for polling purposes.
I don't know that the figures they've been listing for attendees at Trump rallies are scientifically accurate in terms of percentages of previous non-voters or non-republicans, necessarily, but they are indicative of successful efforts by the Trump campaign to reach the unreached voter. That's been a major focus for three years now, and we have good reason to believe those folks are being discounted in polling.
Will they be enough? Remains to be seen. If Trump wins, however, that's going to be the group that puts him over the top and a primary reason for the inaccurate polls.
Yeah, if he's already flinging insults like this, that's complete capitulation to me. Why I put it into this thread.bmks270 said:aggiehawg said:
So says the reigning Dunning-Kruger champion.
If he were confident in the analysis he's put out there, he wouldn't be feeling the pressure to defend it. He would feel confident that Tuesday will validate him.
He's not confident - he's projecting.
He's not confident - he's projecting.
aggiehawg said:Yeah, if he's already flinging insults like this, that's complete capitulation to me. Why I put it into this thread.bmks270 said:aggiehawg said:
So says the reigning Dunning-Kruger champion.
The betting markets still have Biden as the favorite overall, so Silver's issue isn't really about the markets favoring Trump but more that anyone would have the temerity to suggest they understand things better than him.
Silver's math model is actually pretty good. But a model can only be as good as the data that's being plugged into it.
If Trump wins again, I think it's going to change a lot about how polling is done. They are still cold calling people on the phone. Spam calls have gotten worse since 2016. Your average American is not going to pick up the phone when an unknown number is calling.
You only end up polling the people who are willing to pick up the phone for a random number and talk to a stranger about their politics. I would argue that the types of people who would do that are probably not representative of the population as a whole. They try to correct for this, but it is likely becoming difficult to do.
You only end up polling the people who are willing to pick up the phone for a random number and talk to a stranger about their politics. I would argue that the types of people who would do that are probably not representative of the population as a whole. They try to correct for this, but it is likely becoming difficult to do.
Cactus Jack said:
If Trump wins again, I think it's going to change a lot about how polling is done. They are still cold calling people on the phone. Spam calls have gotten worse since 2016. Your average American is not going to pick up the phone when an unknown number is calling.
You only end up polling the people who are willing to pick up the phone for a random number and talk to a stranger about their politics. I would argue that the types of people who would do that are probably not representative of the population as a whole. They try to correct for this, but it is likely becoming difficult to do.
Phone polling is the WORST! Both my parents were getting call after call from Biden volunteers for polling purposes. They finally gave in and let them know they are tired of Trumps racist bullsh** and voting Democrat. (they voted Trump the first week of EV).
This is one of the reasons I think Biden's internal polls are off. It is far more likely that people will tell his campaign what they want to hear than the alternative.
I would be willing to bet that many of the media-sponsored pollsters are taking cues from Biden's internals and confidently using them as a point of validation.
I would be willing to bet that many of the media-sponsored pollsters are taking cues from Biden's internals and confidently using them as a point of validation.
Trump needs AZ and one other Midwest state.
That electoral map seems possible based on polling trends, but it would be a big break from the historic correlation of Ohio and Florida aiding with the winner.
That electoral map seems possible based on polling trends, but it would be a big break from the historic correlation of Ohio and Florida aiding with the winner.
I am not sure I believe if Trump wins Ohio and Florida that he will not win at least one other rust belt state. Plus Arizona is trending to Trump, Nevada may come around. Add those together and he wins the election with 277. Biden running to Minnesota shows the external polls favor the democrats but their internal polls say otherwise.
PA only stays blue with fraud, IMO
Not only going to MN, but taking the Messiah with him.
I thought that was only PennsylvaniaaTm2004 said:
Not only going to MN, but taking the Messiah with him.
JW
Interesting betting lines for futures for A&M football as of April 2024
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
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