What gives you confidence for November?

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bmks270
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11:12p, 10/24/20
AG
Huge swings two days of voting. Remember there is another week left of early voting. 10 days until Nov 3.
(Thank you will25u for compiling the data)


AZ from D +6.7 to +4.2 (swing R 2.5)
NV from D +8.1 to +2.7 (swing R 5.4)
FL from D +9.0 to + 5.3 (swing R 3.7)
NC from D +9.5 to +6.2 (swing R 3.3)
WI from D +9.1 to +4.2 (swing R 4.9)
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will25u
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In reply to ravingfans • 11:43p, 10/24/20
Done. Just based on TargetSmart modeling, we are sitting at...

Democrats - 347
Republicans - 191

Added it to the sheet at the bottom to the left of the total vote count.
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Verne Lundquist
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11:54p, 10/24/20
AG

I'm scared
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Verne Lundquist
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In reply to will25u • 11:55p, 10/24/20
AG
will25u said:
Done. Just based on TargetSmart modeling, we are sitting at...

Democrats - 347
Republicans - 191

Added it to the sheet at the bottom to the left of the total vote count.
Electoral votes

Not good
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will25u
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11:56p, 10/24/20
Also added another smaller table below the bigger one, that shows just the +/- votes for that day by state and a total. Of course this is just from when I started on 10/23.
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will25u
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In reply to Verne Lundquist • 11:59p, 10/24/20
Republicans are fine thus far. Democrats have been pushing VBM, so that is why they have a lead in some states.

Ex. Oklahoma is counted in Democrats total currently, but will be deep red by the time ED comes around.
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will25u
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In reply to Verne Lundquist • 12:06a, 10/25/20
Verne Lundquist said:

I'm scared
2.6 million ballots were cast in 2016 in Arizona. We are only at 40% of 2016 thus far.

I mean AZ will be close again, I'm sure. It was decided by less than 100k votes in 2016
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EnderWiggin
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12:09a, 10/25/20
Should also note Trump was basically asking his base to vote in person and not trust the mail.
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Verne Lundquist
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12:14a, 10/25/20
AG
/praying hands
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Conservative Ag
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12:27a, 10/25/20
Down 533k in Penn? Is that still looking good?
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will25u
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9:02a, 10/25/20


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Silvertaps
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In reply to Conservative Ag • 9:07a, 10/25/20
AG
Conservative Ag said:
Down 533k in Penn? Is that still looking good?

That margin has become huge!
Need a BIG turnout by Republicans on Election Day. Hoping weather is decent.
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Barnyard96
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In reply to Silvertaps • 9:12a, 10/25/20
AG
Silvertaps said:
Conservative Ag said:
Down 533k in Penn? Is that still looking good?

That margin has become huge!
Need a BIG turnout by Republicans on Election Day. Hoping weather is decent.
Hope Trump wins MI and WI and PA dont matter.
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FbgTxAg
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 9:22a, 10/25/20
AG
barnyard1996 said:
Silvertaps said:
Conservative Ag said:
Down 533k in Penn? Is that still looking good?

That margin has become huge!
Need a BIG turnout by Republicans on Election Day. Hoping weather is decent.
Hope Trump wins MI and WI and PA dont matter.


Correct. He doesn't have to win all the States he won in 16. Something does seem odd about the Penn #s though. I guess it's kinda Joes home State, but yes it's concerning. However, #s look good in almost all the other States except Iowa. Minnesota and New Mexico offset that, and Michigan looks like a landslide for Trump.
The greatest argument ever made against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter.
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Premium
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In reply to FbgTxAg • 9:24a, 10/25/20
AG
FbgTxAg said:
barnyard1996 said:
Silvertaps said:
Conservative Ag said:
Down 533k in Penn? Is that still looking good?

That margin has become huge!
Need a BIG turnout by Republicans on Election Day. Hoping weather is decent.
Hope Trump wins MI and WI and PA dont matter.


Correct. He doesn't have to win all the States he won in 16. Something does seem odd about the Penn #s though. I guess it's kinda Joes home State, but yes it's concerning. However, #s look good in almost all the other States except Iowa. Minnesota and New Mexico offset that, and Michigan looks like a landslide for Trump.


Voter fraud sounds plausible
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will25u
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9:27a, 10/25/20
TargetSmart data is a model. Not real numbers. It does a decent job of predicting, but it does have a slight left lean. And they updated their model recently.
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Always_Right
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In reply to Silvertaps • 9:30a, 10/25/20
AG
Silvertaps said:
Conservative Ag said:
Down 533k in Penn? Is that still looking good?

That margin has become huge!
Need a BIG turnout by Republicans on Election Day. Hoping weather is decent.
Someone reported on another thread that this was just mail in ballots and not early voting numbers.
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Rockdoc
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9:32a, 10/25/20
AG
I'm leaning towards not trusting anything.
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Barnyard96
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In reply to Always_Right • 9:34a, 10/25/20
AG
Great_I_Am said:
Silvertaps said:
Conservative Ag said:
Down 533k in Penn? Is that still looking good?

That margin has become huge!
Need a BIG turnout by Republicans on Election Day. Hoping weather is decent.
Someone reported on another thread that this was just mail in ballots and not early voting numbers.
Correct.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/pennsylvania-results
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Conservative Ag
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9:36a, 10/25/20
There's no way Iowa is going blue. Right?
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Barnyard96
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9:37a, 10/25/20
AG
If I am reading it right, it appears all early voting for PA is done by mail. The last day to request a ballot is this Tuesday, 10/27.

That would explain the big difference in numbers, because the R's want to cast votes in person.
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nortex97
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10:01a, 10/25/20
AG


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Silvertaps
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 10:03a, 10/25/20
AG
barnyard1996 said:
If I am reading it right, it appears all early voting for PA is done by mail. The last day to request a ballot is this Tuesday, 10/27.

That would explain the big difference in numbers, because the R's want to cast votes in person.

Yep...in person will need to be big...hence my comment about the weather. That's a LOT of votes to make up. I do agree...winning MI and WI would negate a PA loss.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Silvertaps • 10:12a, 10/25/20
AG
Silvertaps said:
barnyard1996 said:
If I am reading it right, it appears all early voting for PA is done by mail. The last day to request a ballot is this Tuesday, 10/27.

That would explain the big difference in numbers, because the R's want to cast votes in person.

Yep...in person will need to be big...hence my comment about the weather. That's a LOT of votes to make up. I do agree...winning MI and WI would negate a PA loss.
Tend to agree. The worst court decisions are in PA. But those can become irrelevant with wins in Michigan and Wisconsin again. Still feel pretty good about the chances of Trump winning Minnesota, too.
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will25u
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10:13a, 10/25/20
Thread.

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will25u
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10:14a, 10/25/20
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nortex97
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In reply to will25u • 10:26a, 10/25/20
AG
Interesting. His/Her analysis/data is also available.

https://statespoll.com/post/632919336941731840/presidential-election-2020-electoral-college-map
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aggiehawg
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In reply to nortex97 • 10:39a, 10/25/20
AG
Quote:
* My analysis is neutral, not biased.

Based on 2012/2016/2018 Exit Polls + Voter registration +Trends + Party ID %.
Not sure 2012 is really that relevant. Your thought?
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TRADUCTOR
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In reply to aggiehawg • 10:45a, 10/25/20
Low turnout 2012 loser Romney.
Amped turnout 2016 candidate Trump.
Amped on steroids and hit of meth while on crack turnout 2020.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to TRADUCTOR • 10:52a, 10/25/20
AG
law-apt-3g said:
Low turnout 2012 loser Romney.
Amped turnout 2016 candidate Trump.
Amped on steroids and hit of meth while on crack turnout 2020.
Exactly. Plus four years of preparing for the ground game, identifying disaffected voters, those who didn't vote in 2016, getting them to register, etc.
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EnderWiggin
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11:25a, 10/25/20
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/10/24/pollster_jim_lee_need_to_crack_down_on_garbage_polling_race_actually_dead_heat.html

Takeaways:
1) Polls have turned political.
2) Shy Trump voters are real and unaccounted for.
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fightingfarmer09
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11:45a, 10/25/20
I need some sunshine pumping some days.

I have stated numerous times this is the most bizarre election cycle I've ever witnessed or read about. Biden is literally non existent on the trail, but will still have a strong turnout.

We have a MASSIVE echo chamber in Twitter that skews the news and general opinion.

There is a strong case to the idea many EV will end up being Election Day voters that had their mind made up. Making Election Day returns lower than previous years.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to fightingfarmer09 • 11:50a, 10/25/20
AG
fightingfarmer09 said:
I need some sunshine pumping some days.

I have stated numerous times this is the most bizarre election cycle I've ever witnessed or read about. Biden is literally non existent on the trail, but will still have a strong turnout.

We have a MASSIVE echo chamber in Twitter that skews the news and general opinion.

There is a strong case to the idea many EV will end up being Election Day voters that had their mind made up.
It is a bizarre election cycle, I'll grant you that. Why the pollsters aren't even trying to adapt their methodology is beyond me. This is especially true after getting it sooooo wrong in 2016. Insane.
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FrioAg 00
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12:05p, 10/25/20
AG
The biggest reason it's bizarre is that literally NO ONE in the country is voting for Biden.

There are only two types of votes being cast - (1) votes for Trump (2) votes against Trump

I love a lot about the guy and what he's done, but there is no doubt he's the most polarizing figure in American political history.

He's not a politician, and he's not PC even when he tries to be. He gets a lot done - like a crazy inhuman amount, and of course there are two sides to each issue so he's simultaneously making half the country happy and pissing off half the country at all times.

He's probably the first person to ever treat the presidency more like something that he wants to do than like it's an accomplishment - meaning in his own eyes he's not defined by it.

Biden and his campaign, and the entire DNC, all see the truth and realize Biden's best chance to win is by saying NOTHING that would worry the folks voting against Trump. Hide him as much as possible, don't take positions on anything (like court packing, fracking, taxes or what he's actually do different on Covid). They fully know their platform is only "vote against Trump"

Hell, they picked Joe and took out his competition because Joe has been a politician for 50 years and knows how to stand for absolutely nothing.
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Prosperdick
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In reply to aggiehawg • 12:08p, 10/25/20
AG
aggiehawg said:
fightingfarmer09 said:
I need some sunshine pumping some days.

I have stated numerous times this is the most bizarre election cycle I've ever witnessed or read about. Biden is literally non existent on the trail, but will still have a strong turnout.

We have a MASSIVE echo chamber in Twitter that skews the news and general opinion.

There is a strong case to the idea many EV will end up being Election Day voters that had their mind made up.
It is a bizarre election cycle, I'll grant you that. Why the pollsters aren't even trying to adapt their methodology is beyond me. This is especially true after getting it sooooo wrong in 2016. Insane.
I think the fact that the media is so overwhelmingly partisan to the left (even more so than in 2016) the polling services know they will carry their water for them even if they prove to be spectacularly wrong.
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