What gives you confidence for November?
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Last: 3 yr ago by Tone2002
Early voting in Wisconsin looking good.
Battleground? Looks more like a slaughterhouse
do you have a link for that data handy by chance?
Thanks
Thanks
aggiehawg said:
Early voting in Wisconsin looking good.
Wow! That seems too good to be true. Great news though! Does that data include both in person and mail in votes?
Looks like likely from Target Smart. Although, they did say they are updating their modeling today for WI, MI, and OH - expect it to show movement towards Democrats.
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/
Not sure but I think that is in-person voting. And the numbers they are reporting for today are actually totals from yesterday.
It is nice to have prior elections for comparison purposes, though.
It is nice to have prior elections for comparison purposes, though.
Captn_Ag05 said:
Looks like likely from Target Smart. Although, they did say they are updating their modeling today for WI, MI, and OH - expect it to show movement towards Democrats.
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/
Yes that's from TargetSmart.
Had a really good account on twitter that was all over that data (@UTAirBoss) but twitter banned his account yesterday when the Biden stuff broke (he reshared the story).
Had 20K followers and was retweeted by Trump Jr, so he had to go /Jack.
For what it's worth, he showed:
FL, OH comfortably Trump
AZ, NC, WI, and MI looking good for Trump
PA too close to call
Captn_Ag05 said:
Looks like likely from Target Smart. Although, they did say they are updating their modeling today for WI, MI, and OH - expect it to show movement towards Democrats.
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/
The landing page says early and absentee votes. So it may actually be capturing some of the mail-in vote as well
Yes, it is all votes cast - by mail or in-person.
Those aren't votes cast by day - that is the running total as of that day.
I built a spreadsheet to track early voting in battleground states. Racine County is at 14.24% of its total ballots cast in 2016 as of yesterday. That actually trails the statewide average of 23%. But, it definitely isn't close to be all of the registered voters there.
I built a spreadsheet to track early voting in battleground states. Racine County is at 14.24% of its total ballots cast in 2016 as of yesterday. That actually trails the statewide average of 23%. But, it definitely isn't close to be all of the registered voters there.
ok yeah, I just realized that when I looked over it a few more times thanks!
Obama, who has a truly terrible track record with endorsements/campaign support, is going to start campaigning for Joe.
Obama managed to reduce the Dems control of both the governorship and legislative chambers to just 5 seats, and net cost Dems over 1,030 seats while his highness was ruling with press approval. I think the only one he campaigned for who won in 2018 was Rosen in NV.
It's almost like America is done with the guy, despite the Dem core bandwagon of adoration.
Quote:
Besides that contempt, Joe Biden should be careful what he wishes for -- Obama in fact has endorsed very few candidates who came up winners.
When Obama endorses some poor schmoe, the other guy tends to win.
Here's one, according to Patriot Post's Obama campaigned for the following losing candidates:
Joe Donnelly
Richard Cordray
Andrew Gillum
Stacy AbramsCharlie Spiering tweeted that actually, the list was pretty extended:Quote:
Obama has a miserable record when it comes to electing anyone but himself. Whether he was trying to help some Democrat win a governorship or a Senate seat, Obama's record has been abominable. By now, he must be something like 0-40.
Heck, even campaigning with Michelle in Georgia, a state that is 31% black, the two of them couldn't get Stacey Abrams into the governor's mansion. Democrats would insist, as the Obamas and Ms. Abrams have been doing for the past two years, that she lost because of voter suppression. It's a tough argument to make because in a state with a population of 10,500,000 3,150,000 of whom are black she received nearly two million votes. Her problem was that Brian Kemp received 55,000 more than her. It hardly seems like voter suppression when 74% of all registered voters, including blacks, cast votes in that election.
Obama managed to reduce the Dems control of both the governorship and legislative chambers to just 5 seats, and net cost Dems over 1,030 seats while his highness was ruling with press approval. I think the only one he campaigned for who won in 2018 was Rosen in NV.
It's almost like America is done with the guy, despite the Dem core bandwagon of adoration.
The data in battleground states shows a 7 percent growth in percent of early ballots for Dems. This is unsurprising as their 'people' have been shouting to mail in ballots and many of those states mailed out ballots to every voter weeks ago.Captn_Ag05 said:
Yes, it is all votes cast - by mail or in-person.
What is surprising is that despite the growth in early voting (9 million vs. about 2 million previously at this date), Republicans are only off that amount. The GOP has wanted people voting in person (to avoid fraud/cheating) and most of these votes so far are mail in.
Not to mention it has been stated that 2-4% of all mailed in ballots have errors which spoil the ballot. That means less votes for the Democrats who are sending in the most ballots.nortex97 said:The data in battleground states shows a 7 percent growth in percent of early ballots for Dems. This is unsurprising as their 'people' have been shouting to mail in ballots and many of those states mailed out ballots to every voter weeks ago.Captn_Ag05 said:
Yes, it is all votes cast - by mail or in-person.
What is surprising is that despite the growth in early voting (9 million vs. about 2 million previously at this date), Republicans are only off that amount. The GOP has wanted people voting in person (to avoid fraud/cheating) and most of these votes so far are mail in.
You have any senate race updates from your weekly calls?Captn_Ag05 said:
Those aren't votes cast by day - that is the running total as of that day.
I built a spreadsheet to track early voting in battleground states. Racine County is at 14.24% of its total ballots cast in 2016 as of yesterday. That actually trails the statewide average of 23%. But, it definitely isn't close to be all of the registered voters there.
Registrations just closed in Florida.
2016 gap: Dems +327,438
2020 gap: Dems +134,242
2016 gap: Dems +327,438
2020 gap: Dems +134,242
AG 2000' said:
Registrations just closed in Florida.
2016 gap: Dems +327,438
2020 gap: Dems +134,242
That's very good news for GOP.
The update we received last week was pretty negative, so I didn't want to post here. But, it was numbers coming off the debate performance and hospitalization of the President, so there was a lot of fluctuation. Several of the R senators had strong debate performances, along with the VP debate, seems to have settled things a bit. Joni Ernst is in a lot of trouble. Holding her seat and John James flipping MI are critical to our chances to hold the senate.
I think Lindsey Graham has stabilized his lead in SC. Democrats are moving money, in part because they have so much of it, into AK and KS senate races surprisingly. Republicans hadn't spent anything there until recently.
The executive director of our PAC is in from DC today and in Dallas, so I will be meeting up with him tonight. Hoping to get some new info.
I think Lindsey Graham has stabilized his lead in SC. Democrats are moving money, in part because they have so much of it, into AK and KS senate races surprisingly. Republicans hadn't spent anything there until recently.
The executive director of our PAC is in from DC today and in Dallas, so I will be meeting up with him tonight. Hoping to get some new info.
Captn_Ag05 said:
The update we received last week was pretty negative, so I didn't want to post here. But, it was numbers coming off the debate performance and hospitalization of the President, so there was a lot of fluctuation. Several of the R senators had strong debate performances, along with the VP debate, seems to have settled things a bit. Joni Ernst is in a lot of trouble. Holding her seat and John James flipping MI are critical to our chances to hold the senate.
I think Lindsey Graham has stabilized his lead in SC. Democrats are moving money, in part because they have so much of it, into AK and KS senate races surprisingly. Republicans hadn't spent anything there until recently.
The executive director of our PAC is in from DC today and in Dallas, so I will be meeting up with him tonight. Hoping to get some new info.
New poll out today from NYTimes show Graham up 6 in SC.
Saw Trump is up 2 in Iowa as well, hard to see Joni losing if that's the case.
"So far as of 10 a.m. Trump is in the lead 3 to 1," she told Fox News on Friday morning.fourth deck said:
The cookies don't lie
https://www.foxnews.com/travel/pennsylvania-bakery-cookie-sales-predicted-presidential-elections
Nothing. None of the positive or hopeful things I see are enough to overcome the intelligence of the average voter, the fashionability of liberal ideas, the shocking lack of basic civics and economics and the enormous greed flaunting and masquerading as compassion.
Just going to leave this here (Facebook page stats)...
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