What gives you confidence for November?

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fixer
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8:22a, 10/19/20
Hunter Biden. That's what is giving me confidence in November.
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bbqAg09
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In reply to aggiehawg • 8:29a, 10/19/20
AG
aggiehawg said:
TacosaurusRex said:
Have to say, either the Dems have an elaborate plant scenario going on and have for 10 months, the numbers of Dems and non-voters in 2016 numbers are staggering to me.

How does one go from being so disinterested or disaffected as not to vote in 2016, to standing in line to show up at Trump rallies??


It seems pretty reasonable to believe a lot of people were weary of what Trump would actually do vs what he promised. More people than not like someone who does what they say, especially in a profession where it's essentially unheard of.
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will25u
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8:57a, 10/19/20
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Silvertaps
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In reply to will25u • 10:40a, 10/19/20
AG
will25u said:
I'm all about this map being the end result, but come on...that's a bit over the top on optimism.
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Ornithopter
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In reply to Silvertaps • 10:42a, 10/19/20
AG
Silvertaps said:
will25u said:
I'm all about this map being the end result, but come on...that's a bit over the top on optimism.


It's just the best possible outcome for Trump!
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AgBQ-00
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In reply to will25u • 10:43a, 10/19/20
AG
will25u said:
If that holds it would be glorious
Communists aren't people. They are property of the state.
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Barnyard96
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In reply to AgBQ-00 • 10:45a, 10/19/20
AG
Roll up your pants boys! The river of tears is gonna be deep!!!
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Barnyard96
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10:58a, 10/19/20
AG
Them polls sure are quiet compared to previous days...

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
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Cheetah01
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 11:03a, 10/19/20
AG
Don't worry, there will be a host of polls showing a Biden bounce soon.
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will25u
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In reply to Silvertaps • 11:33a, 10/19/20
Silvertaps said:
will25u said:
I'm all about this map being the end result, but come on...that's a bit over the top on optimism.
It is just using TargetSmart data to show where the states are currently with EV/AB.
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Unknown_handle
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11:35a, 10/19/20
AG
I have confidence based on two things:

Firstly, NO ONE shows up to his rallys!

Secondly, the Dem press has lost their minds and makes to pretentions that they are fair and impartial! Peopel will vote against the press.
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fightingfarmer09
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11:36a, 10/19/20
Know what is kinda nuts?

No one is talking about polls right now. Early voting data is a big topic, but all of the +17% Biden talk is silenced.
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TacosaurusRex
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11:38a, 10/19/20
"If you are reading this, I have passed on from this world — not as big a deal for you as it was for me."
T. Boone Pickens
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aggiehawg
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11:42a, 10/19/20
AG


Encouraging.
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Silvertaps
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In reply to will25u • 11:47a, 10/19/20
AG
will25u said:
Silvertaps said:
will25u said:
I'm all about this map being the end result, but come on...that's a bit over the top on optimism.
It is just using TargetSmart data to show where the states are currently with EV/AB.
Gotcha...when I see AZ, MI, MN, NC, NV, OH, PA, and WI all being counted as red, it tends to give me the vibe of this just another fake poll.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Silvertaps • 11:51a, 10/19/20
AG
Silvertaps said:
will25u said:
Silvertaps said:
will25u said:
I'm all about this map being the end result, but come on...that's a bit over the top on optimism.
It is just using TargetSmart data to show where the states are currently with EV/AB.
Gotcha...when I see AZ, MI, MN, NC, NV, OH, PA, and WI all being counted as red, it tends to give me the vibe of just another fake poll.
Difference being the lack of a Biden ground game in those states, with the possible exception of Pennsylvania. Ed Rendell still runs that state's Dems. And he's never been shy about paying for votes using walking around money. He actually chided Hillary in 2016 on not putting enough cash out to voters in 2016.
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Gigemags382
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In reply to will25u • 11:53a, 10/19/20
AG
will25u said:
Silvertaps said:
will25u said:
I'm all about this map being the end result, but come on...that's a bit over the top on optimism.
It is just using TargetSmart data to show where the states are currently with EV/AB.


When I look at Target Smart (I've only given it a cursory look a few times), it looks awful for Trump on the surface. Is there underlying county information or something that indicates it's actually looking good for Trump? I seem to be overlooking something.

Like in PA, Trump seems to be getting blown out of the water, but the map above shows PA slightly red. What's the basis for that?
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Barnyard96
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In reply to Gigemags382 • 11:55a, 10/19/20
AG
Gigemags382 said:
will25u said:
Silvertaps said:
will25u said:
I'm all about this map being the end result, but come on...that's a bit over the top on optimism.
It is just using TargetSmart data to show where the states are currently with EV/AB.


When I look at Target Smart (I've only given it a cursory look a few times), it looks awful for Trump on the surface. Is there underlying county information or something that indicates it's actually looking good for Trump? I seem to be overlooking something.
GIve me an example.
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Gigemags382
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 11:57a, 10/19/20
AG
barnyard1996 said:
Gigemags382 said:
will25u said:
Silvertaps said:
will25u said:
I'm all about this map being the end result, but come on...that's a bit over the top on optimism.
It is just using TargetSmart data to show where the states are currently with EV/AB.


When I look at Target Smart (I've only given it a cursory look a few times), it looks awful for Trump on the surface. Is there underlying county information or something that indicates it's actually looking good for Trump? I seem to be overlooking something.
GIve me an example.


PA 70.6% Democrat / 23.6 % Republican / 5.8% Unaffiliated with close to 10x votes compared to 2016.

I may be completely overlooking/misunderstanding data on the site. So just seeking understanding.
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Barnyard96
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In reply to Gigemags382 • 12:02p, 10/19/20
AG
Gigemags382 said:
barnyard1996 said:
Gigemags382 said:
will25u said:
Silvertaps said:
will25u said:
I'm all about this map being the end result, but come on...that's a bit over the top on optimism.
It is just using TargetSmart data to show where the states are currently with EV/AB.


When I look at Target Smart (I've only given it a cursory look a few times), it looks awful for Trump on the surface. Is there underlying county information or something that indicates it's actually looking good for Trump? I seem to be overlooking something.
GIve me an example.


PA 70.6% Democrat / 23.6 % Republican / 5.8% Unaffiliated with close to 10x votes compared to 2016.

I may be completely overlooking/misunderstanding data on the site. So just seeking understanding.
From what I have read PA is one that is up in the air, but FL, AZ, NC, FL, WI, MI looking good for Trump.
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lunchbox
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12:02p, 10/19/20
Just checked the latest Harris County numbers from the TX site and it shows that after yesterday, over 25% of the registered voters in the county have voted. Most were from the first couple of days of early voting.

Now, looking at the wait times on the Harris County site, it looks like no one is really voting (compared to last week). Every site in green with lines of 0-10 (most 0-5).
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AgBQ-00
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In reply to lunchbox • 12:04p, 10/19/20
AG
Hoping this means the dems shot their wad early. I know a lot of conservatives who are waiting for election day specifically to make sure the target for cheating is harder to discern for the dems
Communists aren't people. They are property of the state.
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Texasaggie32
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 12:05p, 10/19/20
barnyard1996 said:
Gigemags382 said:
barnyard1996 said:
Gigemags382 said:
will25u said:
Silvertaps said:
will25u said:
I'm all about this map being the end result, but come on...that's a bit over the top on optimism.
It is just using TargetSmart data to show where the states are currently with EV/AB.


When I look at Target Smart (I've only given it a cursory look a few times), it looks awful for Trump on the surface. Is there underlying county information or something that indicates it's actually looking good for Trump? I seem to be overlooking something.
GIve me an example.


PA 70.6% Democrat / 23.6 % Republican / 5.8% Unaffiliated with close to 10x votes compared to 2016.

I may be completely overlooking/misunderstanding data on the site. So just seeking understanding.
From what I have read PA is one that is up in the air, but FL, AZ, NC, FL, WI, MI looking good for Trump.
Don't think the NC early vote is great for Trump, but it is relatively in line with 2016 where Trump won. Big D gap, just need Rs to close it over next 2 weeks.
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Gigemags382
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 12:06p, 10/19/20
AG
barnyard1996 said:
Gigemags382 said:
barnyard1996 said:
Gigemags382 said:
will25u said:
Silvertaps said:
will25u said:
I'm all about this map being the end result, but come on...that's a bit over the top on optimism.
It is just using TargetSmart data to show where the states are currently with EV/AB.


When I look at Target Smart (I've only given it a cursory look a few times), it looks awful for Trump on the surface. Is there underlying county information or something that indicates it's actually looking good for Trump? I seem to be overlooking something.
GIve me an example.


PA 70.6% Democrat / 23.6 % Republican / 5.8% Unaffiliated with close to 10x votes compared to 2016.

I may be completely overlooking/misunderstanding data on the site. So just seeking understanding.
From what I have read PA is one that is up in the air, but FL, AZ, NC, FL, WI, MI looking good for Trump.


Thanks.

FL:
53.6% Democrat (vs 48.6% in 2016)
39.6% Republican (vs. 40.3% in 2016)

Do the county details shed more light on it? E.g. high number of ballots returned from Miami-Dade and it's expected that it will slow down dramatically? I haven't drilled into the county details. At state level, I don't see how it looks good for Trump.
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Clown_World
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12:08p, 10/19/20
Went for a run through my Houston suburb last night and the unofficial count was:

53 homes with visible support for Trump(signs/flags)
4 homes for Biden-one of which is a super Karen that lives two doors down.

Looking like the burbs are gonna go BIGLY for Trump!

CNN is the enemy of the state and should be treated as such.
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Prosperdick
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12:12p, 10/19/20
AG

Nice thread on early and absentee balloting.
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to Gigemags382 • 12:37p, 10/19/20
AG
Gigemags382 said:
barnyard1996 said:
Gigemags382 said:
will25u said:
Silvertaps said:
will25u said:
I'm all about this map being the end result, but come on...that's a bit over the top on optimism.
It is just using TargetSmart data to show where the states are currently with EV/AB.


When I look at Target Smart (I've only given it a cursory look a few times), it looks awful for Trump on the surface. Is there underlying county information or something that indicates it's actually looking good for Trump? I seem to be overlooking something.
GIve me an example.


PA 70.6% Democrat / 23.6 % Republican / 5.8% Unaffiliated with close to 10x votes compared to 2016.

I may be completely overlooking/misunderstanding data on the site. So just seeking understanding.
Republicans traditionally vote on election day, while Dems vote early.

They expected an even larger gap this year with Covid fears on the left.

There's folks crunching the numbers on voter registration vs. ballots cast in places like PA that are saying things look good for Trump.

It should also be a tell that Obama is going to Philly this week to try and campaign for Biden - that's a Dem stronghold but underperforming even their 2016 numbers.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 12:42p, 10/19/20
AG
Speaking of PA.

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Gigemags382
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 12:45p, 10/19/20
AG
AG 2000' said:
Gigemags382 said:
barnyard1996 said:
Gigemags382 said:
will25u said:
Silvertaps said:
will25u said:
I'm all about this map being the end result, but come on...that's a bit over the top on optimism.
It is just using TargetSmart data to show where the states are currently with EV/AB.


When I look at Target Smart (I've only given it a cursory look a few times), it looks awful for Trump on the surface. Is there underlying county information or something that indicates it's actually looking good for Trump? I seem to be overlooking something.
GIve me an example.


PA 70.6% Democrat / 23.6 % Republican / 5.8% Unaffiliated with close to 10x votes compared to 2016.

I may be completely overlooking/misunderstanding data on the site. So just seeking understanding.
Republicans traditionally vote on election day, while Dems vote early.

They expected an even larger gap this year with Covid fears on the left.

There's folks crunching the numbers on voter registration vs. ballots cast in places like PA that are saying things look good for Trump.

It should also be a tell that Obama is going to Philly this week to try and campaign for Biden - that's a Dem stronghold but underperforming even their 2016 numbers.


Thanks. I was just seeing a larger gap between Dem/Rep %s in most states compared to 2016 with a significantly larger raw vote number gap to boot. But if the expectation was an even larger gap that hasn't come to fruition in the early voting, then I can see why it could be good news for Trump. Lots of assumptions at play from both sides. Hope it turns out in Trump's favor in the end.
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nortex97
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In reply to Gigemags382 • 12:46p, 10/19/20
AG
Gigemags382 said:
barnyard1996 said:
Gigemags382 said:
barnyard1996 said:
Gigemags382 said:
will25u said:
Silvertaps said:
will25u said:
I'm all about this map being the end result, but come on...that's a bit over the top on optimism.
It is just using TargetSmart data to show where the states are currently with EV/AB.


When I look at Target Smart (I've only given it a cursory look a few times), it looks awful for Trump on the surface. Is there underlying county information or something that indicates it's actually looking good for Trump? I seem to be overlooking something.
GIve me an example.


PA 70.6% Democrat / 23.6 % Republican / 5.8% Unaffiliated with close to 10x votes compared to 2016.

I may be completely overlooking/misunderstanding data on the site. So just seeking understanding.
From what I have read PA is one that is up in the air, but FL, AZ, NC, FL, WI, MI looking good for Trump.


Thanks.

FL:
53.6% Democrat (vs 48.6% in 2016)
39.6% Republican (vs. 40.3% in 2016)

Do the county details shed more light on it? E.g. high number of ballots returned from Miami-Dade and it's expected that it will slow down dramatically? I haven't drilled into the county details. At state level, I don't see how it looks good for Trump.
The breakdown between early voting in person and vote by mail though is helpful. The thing is that the GOP has gotten the message out not to trust your vote to postal fraud.



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aTm2004
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1:08p, 10/19/20
AG
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IDaggie06
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In reply to Clown_World • 1:10p, 10/19/20
AG
CoachO_08 said:
Went for a run through my Houston suburb last night and the unofficial count was:

53 homes with visible support for Trump(signs/flags)
4 homes for Biden-one of which is a super Karen that lives two doors down.

Looking like the burbs are gonna go BIGLY for Trump!

You must be in Fairfield. You can think my mom for all those signs.
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Barnyard96
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In reply to Gigemags382 • 1:22p, 10/19/20
AG
Gigemags382 said:
barnyard1996 said:
Gigemags382 said:
barnyard1996 said:
Gigemags382 said:
will25u said:
Silvertaps said:
will25u said:
I'm all about this map being the end result, but come on...that's a bit over the top on optimism.
It is just using TargetSmart data to show where the states are currently with EV/AB.


When I look at Target Smart (I've only given it a cursory look a few times), it looks awful for Trump on the surface. Is there underlying county information or something that indicates it's actually looking good for Trump? I seem to be overlooking something.
GIve me an example.


PA 70.6% Democrat / 23.6 % Republican / 5.8% Unaffiliated with close to 10x votes compared to 2016.

I may be completely overlooking/misunderstanding data on the site. So just seeking understanding.
From what I have read PA is one that is up in the air, but FL, AZ, NC, FL, WI, MI looking good for Trump.


Thanks.

FL:
53.6% Democrat (vs 48.6% in 2016)
39.6% Republican (vs. 40.3% in 2016)

Do the county details shed more light on it? E.g. high number of ballots returned from Miami-Dade and it's expected that it will slow down dramatically? I haven't drilled into the county details. At state level, I don't see how it looks good for Trump.
Early in person voting started today in FL. D's were forecasted to mail vote 2 to 1.

R's have crushed it in voter registration in both NC and FL.
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rgag12
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 1:25p, 10/19/20
AG
barnyard1996 said:
Gigemags382 said:
barnyard1996 said:
Gigemags382 said:
barnyard1996 said:
Gigemags382 said:
will25u said:
Silvertaps said:
will25u said:
I'm all about this map being the end result, but come on...that's a bit over the top on optimism.
It is just using TargetSmart data to show where the states are currently with EV/AB.


When I look at Target Smart (I've only given it a cursory look a few times), it looks awful for Trump on the surface. Is there underlying county information or something that indicates it's actually looking good for Trump? I seem to be overlooking something.
GIve me an example.


PA 70.6% Democrat / 23.6 % Republican / 5.8% Unaffiliated with close to 10x votes compared to 2016.

I may be completely overlooking/misunderstanding data on the site. So just seeking understanding.
From what I have read PA is one that is up in the air, but FL, AZ, NC, FL, WI, MI looking good for Trump.


Thanks.

FL:
53.6% Democrat (vs 48.6% in 2016)
39.6% Republican (vs. 40.3% in 2016)

Do the county details shed more light on it? E.g. high number of ballots returned from Miami-Dade and it's expected that it will slow down dramatically? I haven't drilled into the county details. At state level, I don't see how it looks good for Trump.
Early in person voting started today in FL. D's were forecasted to mail vote 2 to 1.

R's have crushed it in voter registration in both NC and FL.


This, early in-person voting started just today. FL is going to start seeing a surge in Republican votes coming in with a crescendo on Election Day.
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aggiehawg
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1:30p, 10/19/20
AG
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