What gives you confidence for November?

149,256 Views | 1681 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by Tone2002
titan
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AgBQ-00 said:

will25u said:




Would be epic. Even if he picks up enough to capture popular vote would be awesome!
One possibility: the power mad Democrat mayors idiots and governor "shut down" San Francisco and LA so much no one goes out to vote, but everywhere else in California they do, and bingo---CA flipped. ;-)

Fun to imagine at least. But while predict some blue state unexpected flipping will help Trump win, it seems a mega reach it would be California!

FrioAg 00:
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
FbgTxAg
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Rapier108 said:

MN AG Ellison: Trump Has a Real Shot at Winning Minnesota

https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2020/10/30/mn-ag-ellison-trump-has-a-real-shot-at-winning-minnesota/



This gives me that feeling like I'm climbing the rope in gym class.
The greatest argument ever made against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter.
titan
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AgBQ-00 said:

Read the article by stutts that was a good read
Yes. And this alone is bad for Democrats:


Quote:

3. Optimistic leadership The "doom and gloom" messaging is over for these voters. They want to see optimism and strength from their president.
That is not to be found ANYWHERE in the Democratic Party or their absolutely mouthpieces the MainStream Media.

If that is a value, that alone would be reason for Biden to lose. We will see.
FrioAg 00:
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
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titan said:

AgBQ-00 said:

will25u said:




Would be epic. Even if he picks up enough to capture popular vote would be awesome!
One possibility: the power made Democrat mayor idiots and governors "shut down" San Francisco and LA so much no one goes out to vote, but everywhere else in California they do, and bingo---CA flipped. ;-)

Fun to imagine at least. But while predict some blue state unexpected flipping will help Trump win, it seems a mega reach it would be California!




#iCwhatYouAreSaying - perhaps that is why Washington is showing closer than predicted by polls.

To take it further, this theory bodes well for Democratic strongholds to be smothered by COVID restrictions. Good for Trump nationwide, something I hadn't thought of before.
titan
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WHAT?? Is this true?

Didn't know that. This makes me think the polls are even more useless:


Quote:

4. Most public polls take too long to conduct and use pre-approved voters that agree to be polled in advance (rather than polling them randomly).
Always thought it was the latter -- -much like the spam text messages on Frisco Ag's thread.

This sounds vaguely like the MSM townhall audience effect.
FrioAg 00:
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
Rapier108
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Trump Leads Biden by 50 Percentage Points Among Cuban-American Voters

https://townhall.com/columnists/humbertofontova/2020/10/31/trump-leads-biden-by-50-percentage-points-among-cubanamerican-voters-n2579115
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
titan
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This part of the Stutts article is just great:

Quote:

1. Majority support across all races for police funding. - No brainer, but the Left has little of that or they would not be keen on Marxism. Even dictatorships have better record than Marxism.

2. 8792% of all Americans wanted athletes to stop preaching about Black Lives Matter and stick to sports, yet Democrats have doubled-downed on these two issues throughout the campaign.

- Yep, they and their Media and deluded corporations. But corporate boards are only a certain amount of votes. Their workers are another matter.

3. The unprecedented affiliation or support for President Trump (and his policies) by artists like Lil Wayne, Kanye West, 50 Cent, and Ice Cube has exponentially increased Trump's favorability in the African-American community. - Very visible and important.
This seems pretty straight forward and is very encouraging overall. It strongly suggests much of the nation realizes the Media are cultural betrayers and cowards by nature and their attempting to "think for everybody" is deeply resented. The mentions about the Hunter suppression backfiring were illluminating.
FrioAg 00:
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
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As much as Democrats 'worry' about focus groups and polls, this could be a silver lining should they win. The policies that Trump and Republicans support are widely popular. In fact, Biden often describes his policy as new, but it ends up being similar to what Trump is already doing.

As scary as Socialism is, and the Democrats want it BAAAAD, Americans aren't going to take it in the next 8 years. If Biden comes in and does the 'worst', Republicans will win out in 2024 or 2028.

Don't you think Democrats thought their ideologies were finished under a Reagan landslide? No one is done here, even with a landslide either way. Hyperbolic reactions do not belong in 2020 - perhaps 2032.
titan
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Premium said:

As much as Democrats 'worry' about focus groups and polls, this could be a silver lining should they win. The policies that Trump and Republicans support are widely popular. In fact, Biden often describes his policy as new, but it ends up being similar to what Trump is already doing.

As scary as Socialism is, and the Democrats want it BAAAAD, Americans aren't going to take it in the next 8 years. If Biden comes in and does the 'worst', Republicans will win out in 2024 or 2028.

Don't you think Democrats thought their ideologies were finished under a Reagan landslide? No one is done here, even with a landslide either way. Hyperbolic reactions do not belong in 2020 - perhaps 2032.
Good take. In fact, would submit, even before next Presidential, a "do the worst" might result in 2022 being a 1994 blow-out in mid-terms if they haven't managed to dismantle the whole Constitutional framework in that time. Probably will not have been able to, and only if they get both houses for two years like 2009-2010 when so much damage done. Even then, probably only one major abomination like ACA can happen in that time. Lets hope don't even have to find out.
FrioAg 00:
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
oh no
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It's the opinion section, but on the fake news site is this real?
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/30/opinions/donald-trump-deserves-second-term-jennings/index.html
Verne Lundquist
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This dude is a commie data cruncher

What would he be seeing when NBC has EV returns 53 GOP 38 Commie?
oh no
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This Michigan/ Florida lib is RTing crap like this:





Always_Right
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Verne Lundquist said:


This dude is a commie data cruncher

What would he be seeing when NBC has EV returns 53 GOP 38 Commie?
We keep hearing this from the left with little to no evidence to support it, early voting numbers show Trump with a wider vote margin (by party) than what he won with in 2016. Trump won by 800k+ votes in 2016, and currently Republicans hold a 1.1 million vote lead so far through the early voting period. Republicans are also adding to that total daily and will only increase on Election Day. It seems the left is trying to rouse fake optimism among their base, keeping a facade of a close election in place even when the numbers don't support it.
ravingfans
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titan said:

AgBQ-00 said:

will25u said:




Would be epic. Even if he picks up enough to capture popular vote would be awesome!
One possibility: the power mad Democrat mayors idiots and governor "shut down" San Francisco and LA so much no one goes out to vote, but everywhere else in California they do, and bingo---CA flipped. ;-)

Fun to imagine at least. But while predict some blue state unexpected flipping will help Trump win, it seems a mega MAGA reach it would be California!


FIFY -- MAGA REACH INDEED!!!
bmks270
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Great_I_Am said:

Verne Lundquist said:


This dude is a commie data cruncher

What would he be seeing when NBC has EV returns 53 GOP 38 Commie?
We keep hearing this from the left with little to no evidence to support it, early voting numbers show Trump with a wider vote margin (by party) than what he won with in 2016. Trump won by 800k+ votes in 2016, and currently Republicans hold a 1.1 million vote lead so far through the early voting period. Republicans are also adding to that total daily and will only increase on Election Day. It seems the left is trying to rouse fake optimism among their base, keeping a facade of a close election in place even when the numbers don't support it.


The most reliable data, the actual party registration of the voter, is being ignored. They are willfully ignorant. Just like they are with any other fact that goes against their bias and beliefs.

Instead they are assuming massive democrat + 20 lean in all of these "new voters". Those new voters don't matter much if the old voters from 2016 aren't showing up. Or if they register as republicans.

Verne Lundquist
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Great_I_Am said:

Verne Lundquist said:


This dude is a commie data cruncher

What would he be seeing when NBC has EV returns 53 GOP 38 Commie?
We keep hearing this from the left with little to no evidence to support it, early voting numbers show Trump with a wider vote margin (by party) than what he won with in 2016. Trump won by 800k+ votes in 2016, and currently Republicans hold a 1.1 million vote lead so far through the early voting period. Republicans are also adding to that total daily and will only increase on Election Day. It seems the left is trying to rouse fake optimism among their base, keeping a facade of a close election in place even when the numbers don't support it.
I guess it has to do with high numbers in Houston and Austin?

Crazy
nortex97
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Interesting piece that made me laugh.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2020/10/31/thread-was-this-the-real-2020-democratic-plan-which-got-blown-up-with-ruth-bader-ginsburgs-death-n2579160
policywonk98
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Outside of Harris, Travis, Dallas Counties and Southern border there is only one area that will be even more lopsided in its voting and thats the 3 million Rural Texans voting for Trump. Yes, those big urban counties have big numbers. But they have much bigger numbers of nonvoters, people below 18 and people that dont vote. The latino vote is also not monolithic in the state once you leave RGV and El Paso.

Texas won't go Biden. But Texas GOP does have a problem. They have to get better at outreach to young people and minorities. Educate on free market and Constitution or die.
centexaggie2010
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lobopride
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Quote:

With 1,624,770 ballots cast, the GOP leads the early vote in Wisconsin. 43% GOP to 35% DEM. About 60% of the estimated total votes for 2020 have been cast. In Wisconsin, you can register and vote the same day, so this is still a close race. The following data is derived from actual ballots cast.

The sample size is larger than any poll, and makes this a more accurate indicator of voting preference. This data does not account for specific demographics or segments of the electorate that still have to vote. In general, though, Republicans are more weary of casting mail-in votes, and are waiting for election day. If that assumption is correct, President Trump has the advantage in Wisconsin.
https://www.toptradeguru.com/news/wisconsin-early-ballot-returns-show-gop-ahead-8-points/

Quote:

Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison (D) on Friday warned about the possibility of President Donald Trump winning the North Star State.

"The president is putting a lot of money into your state. He's greatly increased his ad buy, $1.2 million in TV advertising in the final week of the campaign, more than was spent in the preceding three weeks combined. Do you think the president has a real shot in Minnesota?" CNN's Chris Cuomo asked.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/bethbaumann/2020/10/31/minnesota-ag-keith-ellison-issues-a-dying-warning-to-democrats-n2579155

Quote:

Larry Schweikart has been tracking the early vote totals. He's been signaling a Trump win for a bit now. He noted how Democrats are going to get bloodied in Florida. He also called out pollsters for how they were sampling GOP voters in their surveys.

If that happens, Biden's chances of winning the election dip below 50 percent, the core three (FL, AZ, and NC) probably go Trump, with Michigan and Ohio probably following suit. That's the election right there. I mean, if we win Michigan, we'll probably carry Pennsylvania as well. It's the icing on the cake. Yet, Schweikart's recent thread on Twitter didn't have to do with the early vote totals. It delved into the real 2020 Democratic playbook, and how they knew two years ago that they probably didn't have a chance in hell of beating Trump due to the booming economy and frankly a real depth chart issue. You saw that in the 2020 Democratic primaries. None of these guys could beat Trump. None.


https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2020/10/31/thread-was-this-the-real-2020-democratic-plan-which-got-blown-up-with-ruth-bader-ginsburgs-death-n2579160
I am a slave of Christ
aggiehawg
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Not sure this is going to play well in Maine.

Quote:

A strange move for a challenger whose main mission is to convince voters in Maine that she's a reasonable alternative to Susan Collins. In a debate last night, the moderator asked Sara Gideon whether she favors changing the number of Supreme Court justices, pointedly avoiding the term "court packing." Gideon replied that she would be open to any proposal that would "help us restore an independent judiciary," although she claimed that none of the current proposals passes that test.

"I'll give you a straightforward answer," Collins replied, "and not beat around the bush." Collins adamantly opposed changing the Supreme Court:
Quote:

All Gideon has to do to close out is not to look extreme. And yet here she is, pandering to the hard-progressive Left by staking out openness to a deeply unpopular proposition like court-packing. Every poll on that issue shows opposition by a majority of voters. The most recent from Siena and the New York Times breaks out fairly consistently on the issue in partisan terms: Democrats support it but only 57/28, while Republicans (6/89) and independents (25/65) oppose it in stronger numbers.
VIA Hot Air

Maybe, just maybe Collins holds on to win.
FrioAg 00
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Not sure it matters - she RINO. She never votes Republican when it matters.
aggiehawg
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FrioAg 00 said:

Not sure it matters - she RINO. She never votes Republican when it matters.
She did on Kavanaugh. We just need to hold the Senate.
MostlyHarmless
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aggiehawg said:

FrioAg 00 said:

Not sure it matters - she RINO. She never votes Republican when it matters.
She did on Kavanaugh. We just need to hold the Senate.

I don't like rooting for her but the only time to root against her is in the primary.
aggiehawg
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MostlyHarmless said:

aggiehawg said:

FrioAg 00 said:

Not sure it matters - she RINO. She never votes Republican when it matters.
She did on Kavanaugh. We just need to hold the Senate.

I don't like rooting for her but the only time to root against her is in the primary.
Agree. I don't much like Cornyn either but when he wins the primary, I'll still vote for him.
Verne Lundquist
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Last night young campaign staffers were posting red wave memes. I know "positive vibes only" vibes but I don't think staffers would put things up if they didn't see numbers

aggiehawg
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Minnesota AG Ellison:

Quote:

CUOMO: The president is putting a lot of money into your state. He's greatly increased his ad buy there, $1.2 million in TV advertising in the final week of the campaign, more than it spent there in the preceding three weeks combined. Do you think the president has a real shot in Minnesota?

ELLISON: Honestly, yeah, I do. I will tell you that I believe in our campaign workers and organizers. They're working extremely hard. I can tell you that Minnesotans know what a problem Trump is. I can tell you that Minnesotans know what a problem Trump is. They know he doesn't care about their health care. They know all the bad things about him. But, you know, there are some folks who still are supporting him. And so what I tell people is that if you is that one, he does have a shot, don't play it cheap, work hard for every single vote. And don't stop until 8 o'clock on November 3.
Quote:

Speaking of not stopping, though, Cuomo hits Ellison over the state's decision not to appeal an Eighth Circuit decision made this week on ballot counting. The state of Minnesota announced last night that they would not immediately appeal the ruling, which forbids counting any ballots received after Election Day. The state doesn't rule out an appeal later:
Quote:

Minnesota Secretary of State Steve Simon said Friday that his office will not challenge an appellate court decision that requires the state to separate any mailed-in ballots received after the polls close on Election Day.

"We disagree with the court's decision, and there may be cause for litigation later," said Simon, who added that his office's focus will be on making sure voters cast ballots by the 8 p.m. Election Day deadline.

Simon, and other elected officials and activists alike, spent Friday urging voters to return absentee ballots in person or elect to vote in person instead of mailing in their ballots. They are concerned about an Eighth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals decision Thursday ordering all ballots received after Tuesday's 8 p.m. deadline to be segregated in response to a lawsuit from two GOP presidential electors. Simon and political party leaders worry that future legal challenges could invalidate ballots in the hotly contested election.

"We need to emphasize that there is no court ruling yet saying those ballots are invalid," Simon said. "We absolutely reserve the right to make every argument after Election Day that protects voters."

Quote:

That's a surprise. The state had entered into an agreement in July to settle a lawsuit over ballot access that essentially overruled the statute on ballot submissions. The state Republican Party sued, claiming that Simon didn't have any authority to override statutes, and the courts agreed, including the Eighth Circuit. Their ruling declared that Minnesota had time to deal with COVID-19 issues in the legislature, and that this was no longer the kind of emergency that reasonably required extra-statute action.
Quote:

Ellison tells Cuomo that he believes that the case was "wrongly decided," but notes that the order allowed Minnesota to sequester the post-deadline ballots. "They will be counted," Ellison emphasized three times, but that's only true if the Supreme Court reverses the Eighth Circuit. If not, they won't be counted. And if Joe Biden wins the state on the initial count, there's no way in hell that Ellison and Simon ever count the late arrivals.
VIA Hot Air
aggiehawg
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Verne Lundquist said:

Last night young campaign staffers were posting red wave memes. I know "positive vibes only" vibes but I don't think staffers would put things up if they didn't see numbers


Hhmm. Maybe has something to do with this?

Jet Black
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Why wouldn't he work again? All the idiots that blew the 2016 election are still working.
Drahknor03
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Because he also blew the Cantor/Brat race by like 30+ points.
FrioAg 00
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Jet Black said:

Why wouldn't he work again? All the idiots that blew the 2016 election are still working.


At the same places, with the same methodologies and the same messages

Thank goodness
Drahknor03
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Rare delayed double post.
FbgTxAg
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"I can't go out there."

aggiehawg
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What happened to the 'rona fears, Joe?
TRM
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I'd sign up just to talk people out of voting for Biden.
 
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