I think they think that they have it in the bag.
JBenn06 said:
I think they think that they have it in the bag.
JBenn06 said:
I think they think that they have it in the bag.
Then even more reason to not stop campaigning. No one stops campaigning.JBenn06 said:
Biden
Hiden Bidenbarnyard1996 said:
Obama isn't running for president.
Where is Joe?
eric76 said:
Nothing gives me any confidence in November. No matter what happens, I doubt that Jo Jorgensen has any possibility of winning the election.
I think Sean Trende is right on these points. You can go by Axios/fake news, or Larry Schweikart, but the truth is early voting numbers...just don't mean that much. But I have confidence Americans realize how terrible corrupt hidin' Biden would be as POTUS:Quote:
For that matter, African American voters were 22% of the early electorate in 2016; at this point they are 20.5% of the electorate. That's probably not what we would expect in a Democratic wave year when Republicans are being encouraged to vote on Election Day and Democrats are supposedly avoiding it.
You can see similar stories developing in Florida and Nevada, where you can make a case that things look roughly the same as they did about a week out from Election Day in 2016.
Of course, there are various rejoinders to all this. We might expect Republicans to vote against Donald Trump at higher rates than they did in 2016, and a critical mass of independents seems to have soured on the president. Maybe Republicans are using in-person early voting, cannibalizing their traditional Election Day vote. Perhaps the anticipated Trumpian improvement with African Americans and Hispanic will fail to materialize, and he'll do worse than in 2016 with non-whites.
This precisely illustrates my point. The claim is not "the early vote actually is good news for Republicans." The point is "the early vote is not even news." We don't know in these states what share of Republicans, Democrats, or independents are voting for Republicans or Democrats, and we don't know how many voters for any party are going to end up voting on Nov. 3. This is all speculation dressed up as news. We've waited this long for actual election returns; we can wait eight more days.
Flag the attempts to do the opposite.JBenn06 said:
I thought this thread was about giving us confidence for November
Read more at the article.Quote:
With 1,294,660 ballots cast, the GOP leads the early vote in Wisconsin. 42% GOP to 36% DEM. About 46% of the estimated total votes for 2020 have been cast. In Wisconsin, you can register and vote the same day, so this is still a close race. Over the past few days, Republicans have stormed the polls and are beginning to take the lead in early voting in several sates. The following data is derived from actual ballots cast.
The sample size is large, and in that way make this a more accurate indicator of voting preference. This data does not account for specific demographics or segments of society that still have to vote. In general, though, Republicans are more weary of casting mail-in votes, and are waiting for election day. If that assumption is correct, President Trump has the advantage in Wisconsin.
Warning for DEMs As Youth Vote as a Percentage Collapses
.........
strategy is to make harris/biden play defense in a state they thought was in the bag. also make them spend TV campaign $'s there as well.Readzilla said:barnyard1996 said:
Is New Hampshire actually in play? Hasn't been red since 2000 and only lost by 3k votes in 16. I don't think trump will win it. But him having a rally seems he thinks he can win it.
the polling services are being paid to skew the numbers left to give the appearance that harris/biden have such an insurmountable lead so Trumpies stay home and give up. No way that the Trump campaign lets that happen.Prosperdick said:I think the fact that the media is so overwhelmingly partisan to the left (even more so than in 2016) the polling services know they will carry their water for them even if they prove to be spectacularly wrong.aggiehawg said:It is a bizarre election cycle, I'll grant you that. Why the pollsters aren't even trying to adapt their methodology is beyond me. This is especially true after getting it sooooo wrong in 2016. Insane.fightingfarmer09 said:
I need some sunshine pumping some days.
I have stated numerous times this is the most bizarre election cycle I've ever witnessed or read about. Biden is literally non existent on the trail, but will still have a strong turnout.
We have a MASSIVE echo chamber in Twitter that skews the news and general opinion.
There is a strong case to the idea many EV will end up being Election Day voters that had their mind made up.
Biden's numbers in New Hampshire during the primaries were atrocious. If they weren't that impressed with him during the primaries, what would he have done in the meantime to change that perception? Just get the nomination?ravingfans said:strategy is to make harris/biden play defense in a state they thought was in the bag. also make them spend TV campaign $'s there as well.Readzilla said:barnyard1996 said:
Is New Hampshire actually in play? Hasn't been red since 2000 and only lost by 3k votes in 16. I don't think trump will win it. But him having a rally seems he thinks he can win it.
Who knows? Trump might win it anyway
Before yesterday I believed flipping the House was a pipe dream. But then Pelosi announces she'll be Speaker again if they retain the House, she just put her name on every House race.Quote:
Keep the WH, Senate, and flip the house is good enough for me.