What gives you confidence for November?

148,826 Views | 1681 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by Tone2002
FbgTxAg
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Silvertaps • 12:25p, 10/28/20
AG
Silvertaps said:
FbgTxAg said:
I'm optimistic, but I think we need to expect that Republicans ARE ALSO cannibalizing a percentage of their ED vote totals. I'm not sure what percentage, and hopefully it's not as big of a percentage as Democrats, but I think it's safe to say Republicans won't be posting the same numbers as 2016 on Election Day ANYWHERE.

Same for Democrats, obviously, but it is something to remember.

Then again, maybe I'll be happily proven wrong!
Why do you think this?


Because there are many more Republicans voting early or by mail in every State this year. ED totals will be down from 2016 for both parties.
The greatest argument ever made against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter.
Reply Quote
2
texsn95
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
12:26p, 10/28/20
AG
Couldn't there also be "many more republicans waiting to vote on ED as well?"
Reply Quote
2
FbgTxAg
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to texsn95 • 12:29p, 10/28/20
AG
texsn95 said:
Couldn't there also be "many more republicans waiting to vote on ED as well?"


Unless I'm looking at the numbers wrong, EV + Mail-In numbers are way ahead of the 2016 numbers. Yes we may have more voters this year, but not THAT many.
The greatest argument ever made against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter.
Reply Quote
2
Silvertaps
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to FbgTxAg • 12:32p, 10/28/20
AG
FbgTxAg said:
Silvertaps said:
FbgTxAg said:
I'm optimistic, but I think we need to expect that Republicans ARE ALSO cannibalizing a percentage of their ED vote totals. I'm not sure what percentage, and hopefully it's not as big of a percentage as Democrats, but I think it's safe to say Republicans won't be posting the same numbers as 2016 on Election Day ANYWHERE.

Same for Democrats, obviously, but it is something to remember.

Then again, maybe I'll be happily proven wrong!
Why do you think this?


Because there are many more Republicans voting early or by mail in every State this year. ED totals will be down from 2016 for both parties.
What does that number look like so far compared to 2016? And how many more registered Republicans are there compared to 2016?

I know my world is small compared to the national perspective...but I'd say 75% of my neighbors, family, and friends who are voting for Trump haven't yet. Sadly, my wife has only voted ONCE in her lifetime (she's 34)...and that was for Obama in 2008. She is so tired of the Dem party, she's voting for Trump...and is VERY vocal about it to her very liberal Rhode Island family.

Again, this is only from my perspective...but there is great enthusiasm to vote for Trump from those that don't typically take interest in politics...and a lot of them are voting later rather than early.
Reply Quote
ravingfans
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to will25u • 12:34p, 10/28/20
AG
will25u said:
Updated Spreadsheet

10/27 Daily Update 1/2(There are 2 updates usually a day)

Another day, another update. Today was a good day for Republicans for battleground states.

Battleground States Daily Lean(Vote lead):

+ = Republican Lead
- = Democrat Lead

Arizona: +32,465(-28,966)
Florida: +59,539(-113,183)
Iowa: +4,244(-57,891)
Michigan: +4,101(-101,101)
Minnesota: +461(-210,928)
Nevada: +4,360(-17,608)
North Carolina: +28,249(-146,659)
Pennsylvania: -26,905(-645,270)
Texas: +57,660(+975,813)
Wisconsin: 0(-49,980)

All States: -22,222(-5,242,785)
Democrat %: 49.15%
Republican %: 40.95%

EC: 340(D)-198(R)

ETA: I still haven't gotten a chance to move the days around.


Those PA numbers are a little confusing. We had 3 days of zero change, followed by -84k, then -26k. Looks like the dems are still building a lead there per this model.

All others look really positive.

Thanks again for keeping this up Will!
Reply Quote
Barnyard96
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
12:43p, 10/28/20
AG
Somebody is really wrong about Wisconsin today. Guess we will find out.

Reply Quote
3
Beerosch
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to ravingfans • 12:51p, 10/28/20
AG
ravingfans said:
will25u said:
Updated Spreadsheet

10/27 Daily Update 1/2(There are 2 updates usually a day)

Another day, another update. Today was a good day for Republicans for battleground states.

Battleground States Daily Lean(Vote lead):

+ = Republican Lead
- = Democrat Lead

Arizona: +32,465(-28,966)
Florida: +59,539(-113,183)
Iowa: +4,244(-57,891)
Michigan: +4,101(-101,101)
Minnesota: +461(-210,928)
Nevada: +4,360(-17,608)
North Carolina: +28,249(-146,659)
Pennsylvania: -26,905(-645,270)
Texas: +57,660(+975,813)
Wisconsin: 0(-49,980)

All States: -22,222(-5,242,785)
Democrat %: 49.15%
Republican %: 40.95%

EC: 340(D)-198(R)

ETA: I still haven't gotten a chance to move the days around.


Those PA numbers are a little confusing. We had 3 days of zero change, followed by -84k, then -26k. Looks like the dems are still building a lead there per this model.

All others look really positive.

Thanks again for keeping this up Will!

PA only has in person voting Election Day. No early voting except vote by mail.
Reply Quote
3
will25u
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
1:50p, 10/28/20
Reply Quote
12
Mostly Foggy Recollection
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to will25u • 2:10p, 10/28/20
will25u said:


Can't stop laughing
Reply Quote
3
Verne Lundquist
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
2:14p, 10/28/20
AG

Quote:
Republicans will take a larger margin than maybe they have in the past or enough that it will start to eat into the Democratic margin.
Reply Quote
2
ravingfans
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to will25u • 2:16p, 10/28/20
AG
will25u said:


TRUMP retweet coming in 3, 2, 1 hahahahahaha!!!!!!
Reply Quote
3
Verne Lundquist
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
2:24p, 10/28/20
AG

I love Colorado.

It would be great if it came back home but those potheads ain't letting it happen
Reply Quote
8
black_ice
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Verne Lundquist • 2:26p, 10/28/20
Pagosa Springs will represent. That much I can tell you.
Reply Quote
4
aggiehawg
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Verne Lundquist • 2:29p, 10/28/20
AG
Quote:
I love Colorado.

It would be great if it came back home but those potheads ain't letting it happen
Just getting the margins down by a substantial margin would still be telling, though. Watch the margins on election night. Those will tell the story.
Reply Quote
3
bbqAg09
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to aggiehawg • 2:37p, 10/28/20
AG
aggiehawg said:
Quote:
I love Colorado.

It would be great if it came back home but those potheads ain't letting it happen
Just getting the margins down by a substantial margin would still be telling, though. Watch the margins on election night. Those will tell the story.
R's may not win the state but numbers like these is what tells me winning back the House is entirely possible.
Reply Quote
5
aTm2004
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Verne Lundquist • 3:03p, 10/28/20
AG
Verne Lundquist said:

Quote:
Republicans will take a larger margin than maybe they have in the past or enough that it will start to eat into the Democratic margin.

My son had a procedure done in the Medical Center in September, and while we were in the waiting area during the procedure, there was a Hispanic man a few seats over from us that you could tell Spanish was his primary language. Dude and his wife were wearing MAGA masks and Trump hats.
Reply Quote
2
Verne Lundquist
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to aTm2004 • 3:22p, 10/28/20
AG
aTm2004 said:
Verne Lundquist said:

Quote:
Republicans will take a larger margin than maybe they have in the past or enough that it will start to eat into the Democratic margin.

My son had a procedure done in the Medical Center in September, and while we were in the waiting area during the procedure, there was a Hispanic man a few seats over from us that you could tell Spanish was his primary language. Dude and his wife were wearing MAGA masks and Trump hats.
There was a poll done in Florida that Spanish speaking group Floridians are backing POTUS bigly

Don't think it translates but like the lady said just eat into the margin
Reply Quote
2
Mostly Foggy Recollection
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
3:24p, 10/28/20
Many Southern male Latinos are first or 2nd generation Americans whose parents came from Socialismo countries. They recognize the D party for what it is....
Reply Quote
14
FrioAg 00
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Verne Lundquist • 3:26p, 10/28/20
AG
Verne Lundquist said:
aTm2004 said:
Verne Lundquist said:

Quote:
Republicans will take a larger margin than maybe they have in the past or enough that it will start to eat into the Democratic margin.

My son had a procedure done in the Medical Center in September, and while we were in the waiting area during the procedure, there was a Hispanic man a few seats over from us that you could tell Spanish was his primary language. Dude and his wife were wearing MAGA masks and Trump hats.
There was a poll done in Florida that Spanish speaking group Floridians are backing POTUS bigly

Don't think it translates but like the lady said just eat into the margin


If he overperforms the expectations for Latino voters in Florida, you can bet AZ and Nevada get a lot more likely to go Trump
Reply Quote
6
Mostly Foggy Recollection
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
3:42p, 10/28/20
Reply Quote
28
policywonk98
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
3:53p, 10/28/20
AG
If a Latino vote shift for Trump does materialize I really do wonder if BLM pandering by Democrats and major corporations and sports will end up being the cause discovered in the 2020 post-election cycle analysis.
Reply Quote
6
Mostly Foggy Recollection
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
3:53p, 10/28/20
Rs just hit Florida target #2 and are up 420K IPEV.
Reply Quote
19
JBenn06
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Mostly Foggy Recollection • 4:10p, 10/28/20
AG
So I'm assuming this is a good number for the republicans?
Reply Quote
Mostly Foggy Recollection
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to JBenn06 • 4:28p, 10/28/20
JBenn06 said:
So I'm assuming this is a good number for the republicans?


Yes, it puts them now in front of 2016 Election Day Eve with 3 early voting days left.
Reply Quote
4
bmks270
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
5:11p, 10/28/20
AG
California Homeless For Trump:



Reply Quote
4
1 edit
aggiehawg
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to bmks270 • 5:13p, 10/28/20
AG
Now that's some upper class homeless!
Reply Quote
6
bmks270
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to aggiehawg • 5:16p, 10/28/20
AG
aggiehawg said:
Now that's some upper class homeless!

It's like a Manhattan apartment.
Reply Quote
1
BoerneAg11
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Mostly Foggy Recollection • 5:16p, 10/28/20
AG
Mostly Foggy Recollection said:
JBenn06 said:
So I'm assuming this is a good number for the republicans?


Yes, it puts them now in front of 2016 Election Day Eve with 3 early voting days left.
Are Democrats ahead of 2016 Election Day Eve?
Reply Quote
Mostly Foggy Recollection
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to BoerneAg11 • 5:18p, 10/28/20
BoerneAg11 said:
Mostly Foggy Recollection said:
JBenn06 said:
So I'm assuming this is a good number for the republicans?


Yes, it puts them now in front of 2016 Election Day Eve with 3 early voting days left.
Are Democrats ahead of 2016 Election Day Eve?


It's a net scenario, so no. Rs are way outperforming in South Florida.
Reply Quote
1
rgag12
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to JBenn06 • 5:18p, 10/28/20
AG
JBenn06 said:
So I'm assuming this is a good number for the republicans?


It means if this was the 2016 election then republicans just surpassed the total # of dem votes after all votes are counted (I.e. VBM+EV+Election day vote)
Reply Quote
TAM85
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
5:19p, 10/28/20
So what Trump slamming news do the NYT and media come up with between now and ED?
Reply Quote
1
MaroonStain
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to rgag12 • 5:21p, 10/28/20
AG
rgag12 said:
JBenn06 said:
So I'm assuming this is a good number for the republicans?


It means if this was the 2016 election then republicans just surpassed the total # of dem votes after all votes are counted (I.e. VBM+EV+Election day vote)


Republican blowout in FL and chipping at received popular vote count?
"Thanks and Gig'em"
Reply Quote
rgag12
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to TAM85 • 5:22p, 10/28/20
AG
TAM85 said:
So what Trump slamming news do the NYT and media come up with between now and ED?


I don't think their plan is to come up with something that will hurt trump personally. The plan is clearly to ramp up Corona fear to a fever pitch by Monday
Reply Quote
3
1 edit
bmks270
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to rgag12 • 5:22p, 10/28/20
AG
rgag12 said:
JBenn06 said:
So I'm assuming this is a good number for the republicans?


It means if this was the 2016 election then republicans just surpassed the total # of dem votes after all votes are counted (I.e. VBM+EV+Election day vote)


Trump's Election Day margin of victory was 201k.

The Democrats cast ballot lead is less than this.

We can say with confidence that the Election Day margin for Trump will exceed the 2016 margin because fewer democrats are voting in person or on Election Day. There is the small chance republicans have fewer Election Day voters as well, but with respect to margin of votes, I still think it is safe to assume Trump exceeds the 2016 Election Day Margin.
Reply Quote
5
rgag12
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to MaroonStain • 5:25p, 10/28/20
AG
MaroonStain said:
rgag12 said:
JBenn06 said:
So I'm assuming this is a good number for the republicans?


It means if this was the 2016 election then republicans just surpassed the total # of dem votes after all votes are counted (I.e. VBM+EV+Election day vote)


Republican blowout in FL and chipping at received popular vote count?


It could be a blowout if Election Day vote in 2020 is similar to 2016. The Latino vote of Miami makes me think this could get really bad for Biden, but on the other hand republicans could be voting earlier instead of on election day
Reply Quote
2
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.