They likely won't be here election night, not for very long anyway.Jbob04 said:Rapier108 said:
Why this is guy allowed to disrupt and troll this thread?
This is not the thread for the libs to talk about how they think Trump is going to lose.
Exactly. He derails every thread. Keep flagging him and move on. Like the other libs, they are getting desperate. They know Joe is done. Their tears on election night will be delicious.
What gives you confidence for November?
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Last: 3 yr ago by Tone2002
Am I wrong that I see this as very concerning for PA? 2.97M votes to win it in 2016. Already been 867K votes by registered Ds compared to only 360K by registered Rs.will25u said:
Just threw this together from yesterday. If anyone is interested in tracking the day to day movements of the states from TargetSmart data.
Target Smart Election Data(My spreadsheet)
Out of almost 3 million votes between updates, the difference between the amount of R's cast and D's cast was 32,912.
Seems like if the Biden comments on fracking & Oil/Gas are going to make an impact, they better do it in a hurry.
In 2016 EV equaled 134,074 TOTAL. We are at 1,322,440 currently.BoerneAg11 said:Am I wrong that I see this as very concerning for PA? 2.97M votes to win it in 2016. Already been 867K votes by registered Ds compared to only 360K by registered Rs.will25u said:
Just threw this together from yesterday. If anyone is interested in tracking the day to day movements of the states from TargetSmart data.
Target Smart Election Data(My spreadsheet)
Out of almost 3 million votes between updates, the difference between the amount of R's cast and D's cast was 32,912.
Seems like if the Biden comments on fracking & Oil/Gas are going to make an impact, they better do it in a hurry.
Just have to hope that the R's come out in droves on ED, and start chipping away in EV.
will25u said:In 2016 EV equaled 134,074 TOTAL. We are at 1,322,440 currently.BoerneAg11 said:Am I wrong that I see this as very concerning for PA? 2.97M votes to win it in 2016. Already been 867K votes by registered Ds compared to only 360K by registered Rs.will25u said:
Just threw this together from yesterday. If anyone is interested in tracking the day to day movements of the states from TargetSmart data.
Target Smart Election Data(My spreadsheet)
Out of almost 3 million votes between updates, the difference between the amount of R's cast and D's cast was 32,912.
Seems like if the Biden comments on fracking & Oil/Gas are going to make an impact, they better do it in a hurry.
Just have to hope that the R's come out in droves on ED, and start chipping away in EV.
No doubt this will happen. But it will be enough?
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
Peter Henderson.
aginlakeway said:will25u said:In 2016 EV equaled 134,074 TOTAL. We are at 1,322,440 currently.BoerneAg11 said:Am I wrong that I see this as very concerning for PA? 2.97M votes to win it in 2016. Already been 867K votes by registered Ds compared to only 360K by registered Rs.will25u said:
Just threw this together from yesterday. If anyone is interested in tracking the day to day movements of the states from TargetSmart data.
Target Smart Election Data(My spreadsheet)
Out of almost 3 million votes between updates, the difference between the amount of R's cast and D's cast was 32,912.
Seems like if the Biden comments on fracking & Oil/Gas are going to make an impact, they better do it in a hurry.
Just have to hope that the R's come out in droves on ED, and start chipping away in EV.
No doubt this will happen. But it will be enough?
Nearly 3 million people voted for Trump in 2016. It's going to go up, who knows if it will be enough but it will be close. The Dems went all in on VBM and banked their votes early so I wouldn't get too discouraged at the EV numbers
PA traditionally does not have in person EV. It was mail in or ED. This year they expanded it to where you could request an early ballot and return it via mail or drop it off in person. You can actually do the request and vote same day, but it is still different than most states' IPEV (like TX). As of a couple days ago 2.8 million people had requested an early ballot, 64% of which were Dems. So, it is not surprising to see the lead. Most R's will vote on ED.will25u said:In 2016 EV equaled 134,074 TOTAL. We are at 1,322,440 currently.BoerneAg11 said:Am I wrong that I see this as very concerning for PA? 2.97M votes to win it in 2016. Already been 867K votes by registered Ds compared to only 360K by registered Rs.will25u said:
Just threw this together from yesterday. If anyone is interested in tracking the day to day movements of the states from TargetSmart data.
Target Smart Election Data(My spreadsheet)
Out of almost 3 million votes between updates, the difference between the amount of R's cast and D's cast was 32,912.
Seems like if the Biden comments on fracking & Oil/Gas are going to make an impact, they better do it in a hurry.
Just have to hope that the R's come out in droves on ED, and start chipping away in EV.
Harris Countyrgag12 said:
I know this is NPR, but check out the campaign donations map, it's pretty interesting. You can hover over each county and see what each person got from that county.
Biden may be getting a lot of money from blue mega cities, but Trump got more money from important counties in swing states and out did Biden 5:1 to 8:1 in a lot of rural counties.
https://www.npr.org/2020/05/20/858347477/money-tracker-how-much-trump-and-biden-have-raised-in-the-2020-election
Biden: $8.7mm
Trump: $13.7
Bexar County
Biden: $2.2mm
Trump: $5.7mm
Travis County
Biden: $7.1mm
Trump: $4.5mm
Dallas County
Biden: $6.8mm
Trump: $11mm
I've said it before and I'll say it again...my SIL is from Michigan and her entire family still lives there (parents, siblings, aunts/uncles, etc), and they're all voting for Trump due to their governor. My co-worker is from Michigan and his son lives in a suburb of Detroit, and he's voting for Trump for the same reason, and the shut downs have killed his business. The same co-worker is a dem who has decided to sit out this election due to the riots and calls to defund the police, which he's not OK with. That's who is going to ensure Trump is re-elected and turn MI red again. People who just want to live their lives and not be afraid their lives will be destroyed via a power hungry government or thugs.texaglurkerguy said:Thread title is "What gives you confidence for November?" This particular poll being highly suspect and deviant from the mean gives me confidence that Trump is not, in fact, currently leading in Michigan. HTH.Rapier108 said:
Why this is guy allowed to disrupt and troll this thread?
This is not the thread for the libs to talk about how they think Trump is going to lose.
Also overlooking the fact that A LOT of D's voted Trump in 2016 in PA. Seeing just the party break down of early votes you can almost all but guarantee the Trump total is more than the total number of R's...aginlakeway said:will25u said:In 2016 EV equaled 134,074 TOTAL. We are at 1,322,440 currently.BoerneAg11 said:Am I wrong that I see this as very concerning for PA? 2.97M votes to win it in 2016. Already been 867K votes by registered Ds compared to only 360K by registered Rs.will25u said:
Just threw this together from yesterday. If anyone is interested in tracking the day to day movements of the states from TargetSmart data.
Target Smart Election Data(My spreadsheet)
Out of almost 3 million votes between updates, the difference between the amount of R's cast and D's cast was 32,912.
Seems like if the Biden comments on fracking & Oil/Gas are going to make an impact, they better do it in a hurry.
Just have to hope that the R's come out in droves on ED, and start chipping away in EV.
No doubt this will happen. But it will be enough?
If you're a member of the #Walkaway Campaign on Facebook, you will see that there are A LOT of Registered D's voting for Trump in PA.
Stumbled across a WaPo article from last year. Interesting.
WaPoQuote:
In 2016, when more than 6 million Pennsylvanians voted in the presidential election, the state's 20 pivotal electoral votes were decided by a margin of less than 45,000 voters.
Pennsylvania is home to more than 75,000 Amish people, and most who are eligible don't vote.
For two Republican operatives, those two numbers add up to one major opportunity to convince the traditionally reluctant Amish to come out to the polls, where their votes might be tremendously influential. The operatives' project, which started in 2016 with billboards and newspaper ads urging Amish people to vote for Donald Trump, goes by the name Amish PAC.
Amish PAC aims to garner more votes for President Trump in 2020 in a state both the president and the Democrats are desperate to win. Amish people tend to align strongly on policy with Republicans, who share their opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage. But making voters out of the Amish, who forgo television and the Internet and believe fiercely in the separation of their religious community from government intrusion, may be a steep goal.
But Ben Walters, who co-founded Amish PAC, says the tide is turning. He said he heard from more Amish people willing to vote in 2018 than in 2016; in 2020, he thinks, the numbers will be even higher. "Their votes would be so important, and there's a lot of them," he said. "Since 2016, every single year, it gets a little bit easier. We're seeing more and more signs of progress. I think behaviors are finally changing."
<snip>
So on Election Day in 2016, Amish PAC mobilized voters to knock on the door of every Amish family they knew of in Lancaster County, offering rides to the polls. Walters says more than 200 non-Amish Republican volunteers helped out.
They hit their jackpot at an Amish wedding all Amish weddings take place on weekdays in late fall, when the harvest schedule allows enough time for it where they drove numerous wedding guests to go vote.
Walters says he is confident that if the Amish do vote, they will vote for Trump. "They can relate to a businessman who runs a family business with his kids. I think they appreciate the fact that he abstains from alcohol and drugs," he said.
<snip>
Kopko and Nolt found that 90 percent of Amish who do register do so as Republicans. Less than 1 percent register as Democrats.
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This thread has been fun to watch. Plenty of great info on FL and TX, but those states had to go red or none of the others mattered. I wish we had as much positive info on NC, AZ, and the rust belt states. Hopefully, we see it start to trickle out soon.
will25u said:
Just threw this together from yesterday. If anyone is interested in tracking the day to day movements of the states from TargetSmart data.
Target Smart Election Data(My spreadsheet)
Out of almost 3 million votes between updates, the difference between the amount of R's cast and D's cast was 32,912.
Really great spreadsheet will!
Updated with this mornings info from Target Smart.ravingfans said:will25u said:
Just threw this together from yesterday. If anyone is interested in tracking the day to day movements of the states from TargetSmart data.
Target Smart Election Data(My spreadsheet)
Out of almost 3 million votes between updates, the difference between the amount of R's cast and D's cast was 32,912.
Really great spreadsheet will!
will25u said:Updated with this mornings info from Target Smart.ravingfans said:will25u said:
Just threw this together from yesterday. If anyone is interested in tracking the day to day movements of the states from TargetSmart data.
Target Smart Election Data(My spreadsheet)
Out of almost 3 million votes between updates, the difference between the amount of R's cast and D's cast was 32,912.
Really great spreadsheet will!
By this data Rs are already leading in Ohio and it's not even Election Day. L A N D S L I D E .
Dems are is just barely above 50% or even below 50% of the cast votes in a few toss up states. I think that's a bad sign for them, because that number is going to plummet on Election Day while the Reps number rockets..
Especially Michigan dems are only +5 in the early vote.
Especially Michigan dems are only +5 in the early vote.
We need Election Day to be amazing turnout
Where do mail in ballots factor in to this data? Is this only in person voting, or do states add in the party of mail in votes that are returned as they get them? I worry that D's will overwhelm R's in the mail in vote and none of those are accounted for in these numbers.
I don't want the EV numbers too get me too hopeful. It is such a strange year, anything could happen.
I hope Trump voters are not cannibalizing their Election Day voters.
I hope Trump voters are not cannibalizing their Election Day voters.
Updated Spreadsheet
Battleground States Daily Lean(Vote lead):
+ = Republican Lead
- = Democrat Lead
Arizona: +13,734(-60,782)
Florida: +44,421(-249,488)
Iowa: +2,679(-65,148)
Michigan: -983(-96,835)
Minnesota: -1,299(-201,701)
Nevada: +14,684(-16,347)
North Carolina: +28,166(-180,979)
Pennsylvania: -26,117(-533,916)
Texas: +95,843(+768,544)
Wisconsin: +11,289(-49,841)
Battleground States Daily Lean(Vote lead):
+ = Republican Lead
- = Democrat Lead
Arizona: +13,734(-60,782)
Florida: +44,421(-249,488)
Iowa: +2,679(-65,148)
Michigan: -983(-96,835)
Minnesota: -1,299(-201,701)
Nevada: +14,684(-16,347)
North Carolina: +28,166(-180,979)
Pennsylvania: -26,117(-533,916)
Texas: +95,843(+768,544)
Wisconsin: +11,289(-49,841)
Can you clarify % difference?
Yeah, I'll edit. Overall Lead in the election. Or maybe instead of % I should change it to just the vote lead total.barnyard1996 said:
Can you clarify % difference?
I think I'll do vote lead total.
+ number is the Republican lead.
(- %) is a change shrinking that lead.
- number is a Democrat lead.
(- %) is a change shrinking that lead in favor of Republicans
I think.
(- %) is a change shrinking that lead.
- number is a Democrat lead.
(- %) is a change shrinking that lead in favor of Republicans
I think.
Is the consensus that the dems are not leading enough to overcome R's on election day?will25u said:Yeah, I'll edit. Overall Lead in the election. Or maybe instead of % I should change it to just the vote lead total.barnyard1996 said:
Can you clarify % difference?
I think I'll do vote lead total.
That is the argument that I hear a lot. But we don't know if corona is making EV cannibalize Election Day voting.
Yes, numbers look really good for Trump so far.barnyard1996 said:Is the consensus that the dems are not leading enough to overcome R's on election day?will25u said:Yeah, I'll edit. Overall Lead in the election. Or maybe instead of % I should change it to just the vote lead total.barnyard1996 said:
Can you clarify % difference?
I think I'll do vote lead total.
will25u said:Yeah, I'll edit. Overall Lead in the election. Or maybe instead of % I should change it to just the vote lead total.barnyard1996 said:
Can you clarify % difference?
I think I'll do vote lead total.
If not too much work, could you add a couple of columns totalling the EC numbers--one for Rep, and one for Dem's based on latest day counted?
This chart is hugely helpful!
In 2 days Arizona has gone from D +6.77 to D +4.19.will25u said:
Updated Spreadsheet
Battleground States Daily Lean(Vote lead):
+ = Republican Lead
- = Democrat Lead
Arizona: +13,734(-60,782)
Florida: +44,421(-249,488)
Iowa: +2,679(-65,148)
Michigan: -983(-96,835)
Minnesota: -1,299(-201,701)
Nevada: +14,684(-16,347)
North Carolina: +28,166(-180,979)
Pennsylvania: -26,117(-533,916)
Texas: +95,843(+768,544)
Wisconsin: +11,289(-49,841)
That is 2.5 points in 2 days.
If that trend continues then Arizona is going to be R +5 by election day.
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