What gives you confidence for November?

148,142 Views | 1681 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by Tone2002
ravingfans
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
nortex97 said:

The polls are having to skew heavily to Dems to give the results sought.

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/09/is_joe_really_up_by_10_points_over_trump.html

The 538 guys/gals are...all over the place again, wait, no, they're making 'mistakes' all in one direction again.

https://donsurber.blogspot.com/2020/09/kurt-schlichter-is-right-on-election.html




Really great articles NorTex! Some good quotes from the second one:

Quote:

Schlichter cut to the chase on Cemetery Gate, "The fact is no one is moving to Biden. No one is saying 'Sure, I love Trump's leadership in foreign policy, his rebuild of the military, his ending endless wars, his tax cuts, the economy, the regulatory reform, the protection of speech, religious and gun rights, and the conservative judges, but, you know, then The Atlantic came along and assured us that four anonymous sources implied that Trump was insufficiently reverent toward some guys who were in World War I and now I have no choice but elect the Marxist marionette who can't keep his fingers to himself.'

"No one.

"No one is falling for this. The only effect is that it makes us all eager to low-crawl over the shattered glass of a thousand of Biden's Ensure bottles to pull the lever for President Trump."

Even Mitt Romney didn't fall for it.


And this one:

Quote:

Actions speak louder than polls.

If Biden really were ahead in the polls, Democrats would be playing it straight.

Barnyard96
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Latest YouGov Poll
  • RCP lists at +9 Biden, but Poll is actually +7 Biden
  • Party ID, Dems 40%, Inds 36%, Reps 24%
  • Biden gets 78% of Black vote, Hillary carried 89%

rgag12
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
On the Nextdoor app there is a lady in our area (SA) selling Trump door wreaths. She is selling out constantly.
nortex97
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
From Sean Trende. Upper Midwest polling; do they have it figured out?
YouBet
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I have no idea what to believe but I will share one anecdotal story that lifted my spirits yesterday.

My long-time liberal, Arab, gay hair stylist (and friend) announced to me yesterday that he's been red pilled and will be voting for Trump and Republican from now on. I've known him for 20 years and we've had 20 years of friendly political debates and I was floored by this.

After watching both conventions, he said the choice was clear: the DNC was dark, foreboding, racist, and full of misery whereas the RNC was the exact opposite. Funny considering going into both the Democrats kept harping about how dark and oppressive the RNC would be. Uh huh.

I know that becoming a small business owner in the last couple of years is what put him on this path. It's always enlightening and educational when you have to own your own future. Changes your perspective quite quickly.
Barnyard96
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
nortex97
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
will25u
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Let me resurrect this thread.

ravingfans
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
will25u said:

Let me resurrect this thread.




Are those folks all making "Q" signs with their arms?

--sorry if off topic, will run back to the Q thread now.
titan
How long do you want to ignore this user?
S
YouBet said:

I have no idea what to believe but I will share one anecdotal story that lifted my spirits yesterday.

My long-time liberal, Arab, gay hair stylist (and friend) announced to me yesterday that he's been red pilled and will be voting for Trump and Republican from now on. I've known him for 20 years and we've had 20 years of friendly political debates and I was floored by this.

After watching both conventions, he said the choice was clear: the DNC was dark, foreboding, racist, and full of misery whereas the RNC was the exact opposite. Funny considering going into both the Democrats kept harping about how dark and oppressive the RNC would be. Uh huh.

I know that becoming a small business owner in the last couple of years is what put him on this path. It's always enlightening and educational when you have to own your own future. Changes your perspective quite quickly.
That's another argument why the vote needs to be post school-days age. But that's a reform for another time.

Another factor with your friend- -- maybe he also appreciates the genuine fact that much of the Arab world is able to work with President Trump to an unprecedented degree, and it is what is best for his old lands and heritage too. In any case, he got exactly the truth out of the convention imagery because it is what they are about. Even the Democrats economic plans are about reduction and promoting the idea the share of growth is finite, which is true when you don't have a middle class. But you saw how Trump disproved that in just three years.
FrioAg 00:
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
The Brazos Kid
How long do you want to ignore this user?
ravingfans said:

will25u said:

Let me resurrect this thread.




Are those folks all making "Q" signs with their arms?

--sorry if off topic, will run back to the Q thread now.
I hear what your saying but...

I think it's just a bunch of folks holding up their phones with both hands to get steady pics/video of the event...
will25u
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Rasmussen at 50% today. That makes 8 day 50%+ in a row.

will25u
How long do you want to ignore this user?
52% today. 9 days in a row.

Barnyard96
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I know its been stated many times, but the hangar rally is just pure genius.

will25u
How long do you want to ignore this user?
52% again today. 10th day in a row.

nortex97
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Some thoughts.



https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1310242995585732608.html

Quote:

1) Ok folks. Another upbraiding. And I say this in love.

2) STOP THE "MUH FRAUD" HANDWRINGING.

3) I get the news about Bull Durham, which I told you for two years was coming (i.e., nothing). This is life.
No one is going to indict 60 sitting senators or 300 House members.

4) I would never want to be in a foxhole with some of you.

King Leonidas: "100,000 Persians? We can take 'em."

Some of you: 5,000 mail-in votes? WE'RE DOOMED!
5) So listen to me and listen good:

WE.
ARE.
WINNING.

6) We are winning so huge that the DemoKKKrats have literally resorted to civil war. That's how big we're winning.

7) Yeah, they'll have a few fraudulent ballots. But how do we know that?

8) Cuz we're FINDING AND CATCHING these right and left.

I would be very concerned if we were NOT finding fraudulent ballots, cuz that would mean they were getting away with it.

9) In just over 30 days we will have something none of us ever dreamed, a 6-3 conservative Supreme Court.

10) On Nov. 3, President Trump will be overwhelmingly reelected---no, not a "landslide" cuz you can't have that without NY, CA, IL, etc.

11) But it will be low- to mid-300s electoral votes and, I think, a popular vote margin of 5 million.
Again, I base this on a student shortfall of 1 to 1.5m DemoKKKrat votes; a black shift of 2-3m votes; and another half mil or so party switchers.

12) Everyone is looking for fraud. Rs have "fraud squads" out. This is really important because the more the DemoKKKrats vote by mail (VBM) the more of their crap ballots will be tossed.

13) Right now DemoKKKrats are BEHIND their 2016 numbers in NC by 20%, while Rs are up 2%; DemoKKKrats' early vote lead in FL is shrinking daily. If they don't come out of FL with just a massive (around 300,000) VBM lead or early vote lead? Trump will win by 200,000.

aggiehawg
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Hmm, didn't see this one coming. (Stolen from tigerdroppings h/t dewster)










That's the suburbs of Chicago.
Marvin_Zindler
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I keep going back to enthusiasm. The only people I see super excited about Biden are blue check marks on Twitter. I believe the democrat party will learn a very hard lesson this cycle: the Twitter echo chamber is not representative of the vast majority of Americans.
TRADUCTOR
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Link says it all

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8777035/amp/Shocking-moment-BLM-organizer-plows-car-crowd-Trump-supporters.html


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8777035/Shocking-moment-BLM-organizer-plows-car-crowd-Trump-supporters.html
2004FIGHTINTXAG
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Saw a very big Trump 2020 sign off Highway 1 about an hour and a half from San Francisco. I've seen one Biden/Harris yard sign, but two Trump masks and a couple bumper stickers. There's zero enthusiasm for Biden in this area of CA.
Barnyard96
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Trafalgar - Michigan

Trump +1

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1gUrxmVI0S8G0klptrEM6Etj4s38iAaCC/view
nortex97
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Biden is going to go unscripted at the debate tomorrow. Here is a preview;

ravingfans
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
barnyard1996 said:

Trafalgar - Michigan

Trump +1

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1gUrxmVI0S8G0klptrEM6Etj4s38iAaCC/view


Interesting - - did not indicate the distribution between Rep's and Dem's wonder what effect that has?
nortex97
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Polls. From Rush today:

Quote:

And I have to ask myself, are these polling units, are they willing to ruin their brands, their reputations just to help Biden? Are they willing to do this a second time after Hillary? 'Cause they did the same thing.

That's why this feels like a replay of 2016. And I think they would. You know why? I think any organization, any business, any company that thinks it's on the same team as the Drive-By Media will have cover. So if you are a polling unit and you get it dead wrong two cycles in a row, if the media doesn't say you got it wrong and if they don't embarrass you and if they don't harp on it, then no big deal.

Okay. So the American people, "Wow. The polls were really wrong." But they're not gonna think much of it beyond that, other than people like you, this audience will understand what's going on. But I'm convinced I don't care what business it is or what polling unit it is or what consumer enterprise if they think the media is on their side, they've got cover. They've got cover to be wrong, they've got cover to lie because they know that the media is not gonna call them on any of the things they blew up.

BREAK TRANSCRIPT

RUSH: As I say, ladies and gentlemen, the similarities between this year and 2016 keep adding up. For example, we were told that Hillary Clinton lost in 2016 because she didn't campaign in places like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. So now in 2020 Joe Biden is not campaigning, not just in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, he's not campaigning anywhere. Biden isn't going anywhere. But again, his advertising campaign makes it look like he's everywhere. And I'm sure that's what he's relying on.

We also have another similarity between 2016 and today. Two Democrat candidates whose health is extremely questionable but totally ignored by the Drive-By Media. I mean, Hillary Clinton was barely able to walk. Hillary Clinton was barely able to climb three steps to get to a seat on a bus, leaving a memorial service 9on/11 down in Manhattan. Hillary Clinton was having seizures. She was having frozen moments in time. There was video of all of this, but it never found its way into Drive-By Media. But we all saw it.

And would you believe that most of the people that watch mainstream media still do not know the extent to which Joe Biden is suffering from, shall we say, dementia or mental deficiencies. They're just not reporting it. It's uncanny these similarities. It literally is uncanny.
He went on today (I can't find a transcript) to note that he'd talked to a pollster 'off the record' who said they're deliberately finding suburban R women/folks who are never-trump to skew the polls now.
Barnyard96
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Since early August, Monmouth has gone from +10 to +7 to +5 in this recent national poll. Trump leads independents.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_US_092820/


Counterpoint
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
How do fake polls help a candidate though? If polls falsely say a candidate is winning bigly, supporters might be less likely to vote and supporters of the other candidate might be more likely to vote.
will25u
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Counterpoint said:

How do fake polls help a candidate though? If polls falsely say a candidate is winning bigly, supporters might be less likely to vote and supporters of the other candidate might be more likely to vote.
It suppresses the vote of the candidate that is behind. It's a mind game they try to play.

If your candidate is down big, why vote? It's not gonna matter in the scheme of things.

If it is close, it help to motivate people.
Counterpoint
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
But wouldn't it have the same effect on supporters of the candidate who was "up big" as well?
will25u
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Probably to a lesser degree.

In a baseball game if you are up big, you say "Lets go FINISH this!".

If you're behind you say "I really don't want to go back out there for the last inning, we are getting clobbered".
Prosperdick
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Counterpoint said:

But wouldn't it have the same effect on supporters of the candidate who was "up big" as well?
If nothing else, username checks out.
rgag12
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Counterpoint said:

How do fake polls help a candidate though? If polls falsely say a candidate is winning bigly, supporters might be less likely to vote and supporters of the other candidate might be more likely to vote.


It's the same reason why good sports teams get a lot of fans/coverage and bad teams have few fans/coverage.

Do the good teams need those extra fans to come to their games and support them? No, but the fans like the feeling of supporting a winner and a success.

The MSM is trying to generate that same feeling for Biden with polling.
Counterpoint
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
will25u said:

Probably to a lesser degree.

In a baseball game if you are up big, you say "Lets go FINISH this!".

If you're behind you say "I really don't want to go back out there for the last inning, we are getting clobbered".


That's true, and a good point. Also, fans watching the baseball game are more likely to stay until the end if their team is winning 15-0 than if they're losing by 15. But most people would still leave to beat the traffic!
damiond
How long do you want to ignore this user?
OP title question answer: a conservative supreme court. Get er done, war turtle.
Barnyard96
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Counterpoint said:

How do fake polls help a candidate though? If polls falsely say a candidate is winning bigly, supporters might be less likely to vote and supporters of the other candidate might be more likely to vote.
Helps fundraising.
nortex97
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
538 hedging in late September about their forecasts; "The EC is biased for Republicans, darn those founders."



Quote:

In fact, Biden's chances only become pretty certain if he wins by more than 5 points nationally, showing just how large the Republicans' Electoral College edge might be in 2020. And even then, Biden's lead has to get up to 9 points before there are no simulations in our forecast in which Trump wins. Meanwhile, Trump is almost guaranteed to win the election if he wins the national popular vote, and he actually wins a majority in the Electoral College while losing the popular vote (12 percent) more often than when he wins the most votes (10 percent).
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.