Blue-eyes, how did you know this crash was coming???
Time to buy HDY
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Last: 2 yr ago by Decay
SJEAg
Joined:
Nov 14, 2005
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Just bought more.
This is getting a little ridiculous...but I guess we are all holding for 3D report or oil.
Someone say something comforting.
Someone say something comforting.
HDY's fundamentals are good, but our country is f***ed. Timing for release of 3D couldn't be worse. Even if shockingly good numbers were released today, it wouldnt make much difference imo. I want to hear something comforting as well.
I've been following this thread and find it interesting that everyone has jumped into this stock b/c one person "thirdcoast" rec it...i'm not saying he isn't correct, but just find it interesting. Perhaps he has a track record here that is quite impressive?
Either way, I've got about $10k play money sitting around so may be fun to jump in and increase my texags use....
Either way, I've got about $10k play money sitting around so may be fun to jump in and increase my texags use....
Can't time this thing at all. Buy at $4 to average down to $4.38 and its at $3.75 20 minutes later, haha. I guess we knew this was a gamble when we bought into it. Got to trust the long term risk/reward of the stock. I still can't imagine it not getting to $7 before drilling. Everyone should be able to take profit by then.
TAMU, thirdcoast has provided a lot of information about the stock but he is not alone in thinking that it's a great stock for trading and/or long term hold. It's a volatile stock which obviously bodes well for trading and there have also been specific scheduled information releases to trade on as well. There is another forum I look at for ideas http://www.stockstobuy.org/forum which also touts this stock as well. Obviously everyone should do due diligence and not just buy stocks on a whim based on suggesttions from message boards, but I don't think thirdcoast's stock tip comes out of nowhere.
Averaging down is almost always a bad idea. I would not be buying more HDY now. I said a couple days ago this stock was probably heading to $4. And I think it's still going lower before it comes back up.
AVG down is NOT a bad idea....must be diff philosophies.
If I believe in a stock and it drops b/c of overall market conditions, then i'm BUY BUY BUYing.
Didn't mean to call out ThirdCoast, but thanks for the insight, will check out your link.
If I believe in a stock and it drops b/c of overall market conditions, then i'm BUY BUY BUYing.
Didn't mean to call out ThirdCoast, but thanks for the insight, will check out your link.
quote:
Averaging down is almost always a bad idea. I would not be buying more HDY now. I said a couple days ago this stock was probably heading to $4. And I think it's still going lower before it comes back up.
This was based on HDY technicals? Do you really think we would be below $4 had the market not tanked?
I disagree with averaging down being a bad idea. If you are actively trading a stock, and you believe in the long term appreciation of the stock, why would it be bad? In my case, I have attempted to buy HDY on the dips and take profit at resistance levels. This stock has been especially difficult to time and on occasions I have bought at the high, relatively speaking. I've been forced to hold longer than I would like without taking profits in these cases but, averaging down has helped be able to trade it more often and take more profits. What is wrong with this strategy?
quote:
everyone has jumped into this stock b/c one person "thirdcoast" rec it
What evidence suggests that anyone jumped into this because I rec'ed it?
Perhaps people bought the stock because they were made aware of a small company with a big asset.
These type of pull backs are how institutional ownership goes up with a finite number of shares.
Emotional or over leveraged retail cough it up.
I think Ray will release the report when blackrock wants him to. If he waits until Aug option expiration than that will support my suspicion. Option interest is often used to manipulate price and optimize an underlying position.
jmo
Emotional or over leveraged retail cough it up.
I think Ray will release the report when blackrock wants him to. If he waits until Aug option expiration than that will support my suspicion. Option interest is often used to manipulate price and optimize an underlying position.
jmo
I honestly think HDY would be down quite a bit even without the markets tanking (certainly not below $4 though). Middle of next week could be a good time to buy.
Averaging down in a bear market is often stupid, especially when the companies you're trading aren't exactly blue chips. Why try to pick bottoms? Why not wait for the momentum to swing back to your side? Sure, you'll make less money on some trades, but over the long run it's a lot less risky. I would never average down in a situation like this right now. It could drop another buck before it comes back up. I wouldn't even think of averaging down until the stock has built some support and is rising back.
[This message has been edited by jrt336 (edited 8/6/2011 12:45a).]
Averaging down in a bear market is often stupid, especially when the companies you're trading aren't exactly blue chips. Why try to pick bottoms? Why not wait for the momentum to swing back to your side? Sure, you'll make less money on some trades, but over the long run it's a lot less risky. I would never average down in a situation like this right now. It could drop another buck before it comes back up. I wouldn't even think of averaging down until the stock has built some support and is rising back.
[This message has been edited by jrt336 (edited 8/6/2011 12:45a).]
quote:
I honestly think HDY would be down quite a bit even without the markets tanking (certainly not below $4 though). Middle of next week could be a good time to buy.
What was your rational? Just curious.
quote:
Averaging down in a bear market is often stupid, especially when the companies you're trading aren't exactly blue chips. Why try to pick bottoms? Why not wait for the momentum to swing back to your side? Sure, you'll make less money on some trades, but over the long run it's a lot less risky. I would never average down in a situation like this right now. It could drop another buck before it comes back up. I wouldn't even think of averaging down until the stock has built some support and is rising back.
What HS do you go to?
Technicals suggested a correction in HDY (and then the market helped out by destroying everything the last 2 weeks). HDY could turn into a good buy as early as middle of the week.
My sarcasm detector might be off, but I think the HS comment is a dig at me. Why? It might seem obvious but 1-2 people on this page have bought more within the last day or 2.
[This message has been edited by jrt336 (edited 8/6/2011 10:02a).]
My sarcasm detector might be off, but I think the HS comment is a dig at me. Why? It might seem obvious but 1-2 people on this page have bought more within the last day or 2.
[This message has been edited by jrt336 (edited 8/6/2011 10:02a).]
I apologize, was drunk and in a bad mood over the current market and being downgraded. I see what you're saying, although I don't wholeheartedly agree. Time will tell...you may end up being right.
I see what you're saying, but I think trying to pick bottoms is usually a bad idea.
Bronson, go to the yahoo board with your noise.
We dont need 20 pages of emotional clutter and disrespect. No one benefits with that type of thread.
We dont need 20 pages of emotional clutter and disrespect. No one benefits with that type of thread.
At $3.30 premarket.
quote:
The assessment of the prospective oil resources in the two selected prospects, and the stratigraphic prospect situated between them, which could also be tested by the wells, resulted in an aggregate of "Best Estimates" (P50) of 1.2 billion barrels of recoverable unrisked prospective oil resources as shown in Figure 4 of the NSAI report.
Surprised they released it on a day like today. Haven't looked into the report yet, but interested in seeing what the risked estimates are.
Good or bad?
Still waiting for them to post the actual report for further detail.
News is positive as expected.
News is positive as expected.
The gap down at open was great time to buy IMO.
I expected a sell off this morning, but also expect a recovery in the general markets after 2 weeks of uncertainty on our credit rating.
We will see soon as everything is digested both in the broader markets and specifically with HDY.
I expected a sell off this morning, but also expect a recovery in the general markets after 2 weeks of uncertainty on our credit rating.
We will see soon as everything is digested both in the broader markets and specifically with HDY.
So this 1.2 billion figure is only based on the two drilling prospects announced in the last conference call and the area between them, which were previously not covered in the 2D survey? So we should be expecting additional info on the remaining shallow water which will likely be an increase to prior estimates as well? Would like to see risked figures, but sounds like this could be HUGE. Am i missing something?
Using unrisked volume can leave alot of uncertainty as to what geologic or operational constraints there are but that is still a boat load of oil reserves.
Does "P50" mean 50% probability? As in 600 million risked based on 1.2 billion unrisked???
EDIT: nevermind, found this simple explanation...
[This message has been edited by Charles Bronson (edited 8/8/2011 10:03a).]
EDIT: nevermind, found this simple explanation...
quote:
P50 unrisked is the most likely resource estimate if the prospect is commercial. Then you apply the probability of a dry hole to that unrisked estimate to get to the risked estimate. In our example if we have 1.2 billion bbls at P50 and a 25% probability of success our risked number would be 300 million bbls.
[This message has been edited by Charles Bronson (edited 8/8/2011 10:03a).]
My guess is we are looking at a couple hundred million barrels RISKED on the first wells.
Interested to look into the NSAI report when I find time.
Interested to look into the NSAI report when I find time.
Here is the link to the report for those interested...
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/HDY/1350058188x0x489951/516f97d3-c7a0-4eac-8e63-cbfc9c5795e4/HDY_News_2011_8_8_General_Releases.pdf
Based on a quick review of p.3 of the report, it looks like 642 million barrels is the "low" estimate, 1.23 billion barrels is the "best" estimate, and 2.08 billion barrels is the "high" estimate. And this is only on the 3 prospects previously unidentified in the 2d survey...wow. Hyper has not submitted the remaining portion of the 3D to NSAI for analysis. That is my only disappointment...i was under the impression that the NSAI report would cover the entire shallow portion of the concession. Looking fwd to getting more info in the next CC.
While this report may have kept us out of the low $3's, maybe $2's today...it is a shame that we never got to see the real impact it would have had had it been released at the end of July when the stock was trading at $5.50+ (and assuming the markets wouldnt have tanked).
[This message has been edited by Charles Bronson (edited 8/8/2011 11:02a).]
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/HDY/1350058188x0x489951/516f97d3-c7a0-4eac-8e63-cbfc9c5795e4/HDY_News_2011_8_8_General_Releases.pdf
Based on a quick review of p.3 of the report, it looks like 642 million barrels is the "low" estimate, 1.23 billion barrels is the "best" estimate, and 2.08 billion barrels is the "high" estimate. And this is only on the 3 prospects previously unidentified in the 2d survey...wow. Hyper has not submitted the remaining portion of the 3D to NSAI for analysis. That is my only disappointment...i was under the impression that the NSAI report would cover the entire shallow portion of the concession. Looking fwd to getting more info in the next CC.
While this report may have kept us out of the low $3's, maybe $2's today...it is a shame that we never got to see the real impact it would have had had it been released at the end of July when the stock was trading at $5.50+ (and assuming the markets wouldnt have tanked).
[This message has been edited by Charles Bronson (edited 8/8/2011 11:02a).]
In for the first time...here we go!!!
Thanks to thirdcoast for the research and thoughts!
Thanks to thirdcoast for the research and thoughts!
so basically this position is down 17.5% since it was first pimped by the OP?
this is horrible, this idea of yours.
this is horrible, this idea of yours.
quote:
so basically this position is down 17.5%
What specific position is that?
There has been plenty of opportunity to take profit and plenty of opportunity to snag cheap shares.
There is plenty of information available to make wise decisions, here and elsewhere.
If you invested in an equity only because of an anonymous OP, or panic sold for a loss. This is probably not a stock for you. Good luck!
FYI, I have never "pimped" this stock or "sunshine pumped" it, or done anything other than provide useful information. Please provide support for your accusations or join the ranks of other trolls to be ignored here.
[This message has been edited by thirdcoast (edited 8/8/2011 12:36p).]
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