quote:

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HDY beta vs SPX is 1.5
vs RTY and XLE it is 1.2

Even if you adjust HDY is still the underperformer over the stated time period. Sorry you don't like the numbers.

Next time I post performance stats I will leave out "Sunshine Pumping."

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It just seems a little childish/immature sometimes when people poke their heads in on threads like these dedicated to long term investments just to post short term stats in an effort to somehow rub salt in peoples' wounds or something...maybe you're really just trying to help us by informing us of the most obvious? Is that your point here?

This play may not pan out in the long run, I think everyone here realizes that and its a risk we're willing to take. If a dry hole is drilled the first time around and the stock price falls to $1, i fully expect guys like you to come in here seeking pleasure out of the misfortunes of others, but isn't it a bit premature?

[This message has been edited by Charles Bronson (edited 7/13/2011 12:13p).]

HDY beta is 2.5 versus what? I gave the beta vs SP500, Russell, and XLE.

edit: question is for thirdcoast.

[This message has been edited by David Carr (edited 7/13/2011 1:18p).]

I bought HDY at $4.20 yesterday

sold the Aug $4 calls for $.65 today

nm

[This message has been edited by David Carr (edited 7/13/2011 3:03p).]

http://www.nyse.com/events/1310551497536.html

Ray is ringing the bell on Friday.

Lets get an after hours NSAI PR tomorrow or pre-market Friday...then let it ring!

I have a feeling blackrock may have something to do with the surprise Cramer appearance and now this.

Carr, You have made your very obvious and understood point on the performance thus far, if you are trying to discredit me then waste your time picking apart my posts.

My point is that I am not a financial advisor offering a standard fund product to manage your retirement. I only care about making money for myself. That includes visiting a forum like this to share ideas and analysis. More traffic and more quality threads are good for the board.

For most here this a sexy part of their portfolio, and they are fully aware of the risk and performance thus far.

If you want some respect from me disclose a short position or make a contribution to this thread related to the topic at hand....or you could just change your handle if you wanted respect in general.



[This message has been edited by thirdcoast (edited 7/13/2011 6:36p).]

I post facts. You don't like them so you bring up beta. Adjusting for beta you still don't like the facts and I am the one trying to discredit you??

Come on guys this isn't the yahoo message board.

Carr, I never said anything about "not liking your numbers" just like there has never been any "sunshine pumping". For the sake of not turning this board into the yahoo board, I will ignore all badgering in the future.

We all appreciate your simple calculation and obvious fact. Thanks again, good luck.

quote:

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I post facts.

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I apologize for my tone earlier. I sincerely appreciate you looking out for us. Had no clue the stock was down 9.6% since April. I thought we had been kicking ass, so this now changes my gameplan. I dont even know how to arrive at such a calculation, but I trust your numbers b/c you seem like a good Ag with the best of intentions and I look fwd to having you around to help us out in the future. Thanks!

I promise that any facts or opinions I post about HDY in the future will only be bullish in tone.

I was just trying to get an honest answer as to why you felt compelled to enter a thread dedicated to a stock you clearly have no vested interest in and tell us an extremely obvious and simple fact that every single person here aleady knew. Do people like you experience a delightful tingle at the slight misfortunes of others or were you really just trying to help us poor lowly mouth breathers? Thanks either way, as I now know who to ignore on here.

In an effort not to further derail the thread i will refrain from responding to you in the future, I apologize to the others.

[This message has been edited by Charles Bronson (edited 7/14/2011 9:33a).]

I have repeatedly welcomed bearish sentiment and bearish risk analysis from the very beginning.
It is well documented by my posts all over this thread. As well as specific posts to badgering posters.

My goal from the beginning has been to facilitate a valuable discussion/collaboration among ag investors/traders.

I apologize to others for noise brought about by those who feel the need to try turn this into anyhting else.

EDIT-performance post added:

For the sake of logging performance against recs here is the other buy rec I posted at 5:03p, 05/17/11:

OP buy rec- 4/7/11 close @ 4.65
2nd buy rec- 5/17/11 close @ 3.18
7/15/11 close @ 4.48

HDY was down 32% from OP to 2nd buy rec. Pretty bad performance against the S&P, very bad if you panic sold and actually realized a loss. If you averaged down and accumulated a bigger position than you have done alright up to now and are positioned to do even better longer term.

There has been nothing to initiate a decision to sell for those of us longterm investors. Price could go down before it goes up, allowing investors to buy more cheap shares and ultimately make more money in the longrun. Or it could go down and never pay off, forcing investors to cut losses.

As I have previously stated the upside potential and risk profile are very attractive IMO. Yes, there is risk as HDY has all its eggs in one basket offshore west Africa. Dry holes could possibly take this down to as far as -100%, proven commercial reserves could take this up to +xxx% or +XXXX% over the next several years.

Its not the NFL, you cant be a pretty qb pointing your finger from the sideline to make money. Got to play to win in this game.


[This message has been edited by thirdcoast (edited 7/17/2011 2:42p).]

Looking for some guidance here. I own HDY at a cost basis of 4.22, sold July 5 call options last month, they expire today. For the close followers of this stock, what do you feel the chances of the stock jumping over 5 are prior to August options expiration? Can sell Aug 5 calls for .25, which is a yield of almost 6%/month, but I really don't want it to get called away if the stock does what it might given good news.

HDY people are speaking at a conference this weekend, wish I knew what they are going to say.

quote:

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what do you feel the chances of the stock jumping over 5 are prior to August options expiration?

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Id say high enough to buy those calls rather than sell them. If you are not a long term investor interested in drilling results, and trying to make a quick profit, I think you have a solid exit strategy selling those calls.

Jumping over 5 and holding above 5 are to different things with this stock.

Id say 85% chance this jumps above 5 at some point before 3rd friday of Aug. 50% it jumps above 5 and doesn't go back below before drilling.

[This message has been edited by thirdcoast (edited 7/15/2011 10:53a).]

http://exchanges.nyx.com/en/new-york-stock-exchange/hyperdynamics-corp-transfers-nyse-amex-nyse

thirdcoast

That's what I was thinking, just wasn't sure about the upcoming news timing. I want to be in it long term, but that 6% for July was good. Keep the information lines open!

I'm still waiting on that entry point to add to my position. What do you think thirdcoast, what are the odds of a decent size dip coming before hopefully good news?

The 3D seismic could come out any day. Depending on that you may never be able to get back in at these levels IMO. I would be looking to get in within the next week.

Agree with harge, seismic data is a very tell tale sign for potential. Jump in window should be getting smaller.

A somewhat stiff and mechanical wave from Mr. Leonard. Other than that, this was pretty cool to see from someone who's been in it for a while...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0bN_r5mbIk

Much rather have an internationally experienced geologist nerd with awkward robotic mannerisms, than a charismatic stock promoter....Blackrock's backing is nice also.

I obviously expected price to climb more into the 3D and into drilling in general with my OP. As Ray has pointed out, and we have watched, the rise in short interest is counterintuitive to the de-risking and progress of the project.

That being said, I have a bigger position than I would have had this thing shot up on speculation.

Considering the large retail ownership and counterintuitive market reactions in the past, it may not be a bad idea to save some dry powder for post NSAI report. IF shorts somehow pin down price or keep it flat on a positive NSAI report, many over-leveraged retail shareholders may have to cough up shares and others may panic, bailing shorts out before reserves are proven. Large retail ownership is attractive to manipulators for obvious reasons.

I strongly believe the NSAI report will increase risked reserve estimates. I am confident but not positive that increased estimates will increase price significantly especially with the increased exposure HDY has gotten.

We are very close!

Well, I'm in for another 250 shares. The most I can afford to safely risk at this point. Hoping things workout.

Do any of you gentlemen have any suggestions for a stop loss?

My suggestion is dont enter stop orders with this volatile stock. Use mental stops based on what is happening to price and why at any given point.

With this small cap stock the pros love to trigger retail stops and margin calls, its like taking candy from a baby.

This is why it is important to stay well capitalized to weather the storm. If at anytime you feel that selling is justified, get out. If you cant justify it, hold strong, it probably means someone wants your shares cheap.

Also, if you have a margin account call your broker and see if you can keep your shares from being borrowed without your permission.

[This message has been edited by thirdcoast (edited 7/18/2011 1:19p).]

quote:

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Also, if you have a margin account call your broker and see if you can keep your shares from being borrowed without your permission.

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Seems a little silly. If you have enough conviction to buy, then you shouldn't mind the shorts depressing the price i.e. providing you with a better entry price. If anything, you would encourage the shorts for the resulting squeeze.

Moses,

In the context of getting stopped out or losing shares to a margin call, others may find comfort in knowing that their shares will not be used against them.

The best way to increase the supply of shares out on loan is to buy shares on margin. Buying shares on margin then hoping price goes down is retarded. For that reason your logic makes no sense to anyone reading this thread.

Now if you are a ibank or hedge fund then playing a small cap like that may work as long as you have enough capital to stay alive. Or you can just get bailed out by the taxpayer like what happened when they chased the housing market.

If you believe shorting can get to a level that harms a company, than restricting the supply of shares out on loan ultimately puts a limit on the manipulation. When huge short interest runs out of fuel, the supply/demand equation tips the other direction...when this happens into good news we see a squeeze.


[This message has been edited by thirdcoast (edited 7/18/2011 9:48p).]

Flying high this morning. At 4.66 as I type.

Sold at 4.45

rasher, i bought some aug puts and shorted some dec calls as a hedge against my larger sept call position....if it makes you feel better

I was very surprised to see the action this morning. I was expecting a slight drop at the very least at this morning's news of a failed assassination attempt on Guinea's President Alpha Conde...

quote:

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CONAKRY, Guinea --
CONAKRY, Guinea (AP) Guinea's president survived an assassination attempt Tuesday after gunmen encircled his home and pounded it with heavy-artillery fire, throwing into doubt the stability of the country's first democratically elected government in a part of the world often ruled by the gun.

President Alpha Conde was awoken by the shooting, which erupted around his residence between 3 and 5 a.m. An RPG rocket landed inside the compound, destroying a part of the home, and one of his bodyguards was killed while several others were wounded, said Francois Louceny Fall, a minister at the presidency who acts as Conde's chief of staff.

The 73-year-old Conde later addressed the nation on state radio, saying his security detail had "heroically fought starting at 3:10 a.m. until reinforcements arrived." He called on the population to remain calm and said the attack would not derail the promises he made to voters seven months ago when he became the first democratically elected leader in Guinea's 52-year history.

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http://www2.wjtv.com/news/2011/jul/19/guinean-president-survives-assassination-attempt-ar-2158802/

Kicking myself as well...I put a sell order in this morning at $4.40 thinking maybe I would get lucky but that it was unlikely my price would be reached. By the time i got out of the shower, to my surprise my shares had been purchased and the price was at $4.47 and climing. Oh well...just goes to show how unpredictable this stock can be. Reserve estimates can be increased...as was the case after the deep water 2D and other positive events have occured, only to be met with a drop in price and the stock shoots up over 6% the morning after an attempted coup on the president of Guinea. I think I'll just sit on the sidelines and remain long until drilling from here on out.

[This message has been edited by Charles Bronson (edited 7/19/2011 11:32a).]

quote:

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"I urge you to remain calm and vigilant for the sake of national unity," Mr Conde said in a state TV address on Tuesday morning.

"I don't want any popular reaction... Allow the army and security forces to do their job.

"My house was attacked last night but I congratulate the presidential guard who fought heroically from 0310 until 0500 [GMT] before back-up arrived," said Mr Conde.


"Our enemies can try everything, but they cannot prevent the Guinean people's march towards democracy. Democracy has begun and it will continue, I promised you change and, God willing, change will happen."

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14197052

Good thing Operation Treadstone is just fiction and that in real life it's usually a bunch of guys like this who are easily held off...

Really has some momentum now.