Someone just grabbed about 175,000 shares at 10:22

up ~3% today

possible good news coming tomorrow during conference?

up 6.65% now.

[This message has been edited by haircut (edited 6/29/2011 11:28a).]

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possible good news coming tomorrow during conference?

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anything's possible, but i highly doubt it. i personally expect a pretty broad repetitive update. moving fwd, guinea is stable, 3D being processed etc.

I jumped out with my 10% gain. I'm guessing I'll have a chance to get in ~$4 again.

Nom, I am itching to do the same.

Tune in everyone.

6-30 10AM
http://www.videonewswire.com/event.asp?id=80361

Dates, well targets, hints to a partner, 3d/AVO hints, revised reserve estimate hints, long lead time spud equipment update, rig personnel update (AGR), conkary port infrastructure/shipping updates....all things to listen for...all things to relieve some uncertainty.

Whatcha got for us Ray?

I bought some shares a few weeks ago after reading about it on here and doing quite a bit of my own research. This has the potential to be a very exciting play and am looking forward to what will be said tomorrow morning.

This one has certainly been fun to follow. Got in back at $3.50 a couple of months ago and just gonna ride it for a while.

[This message has been edited by Diet Cokehead (edited 6/30/2011 12:12a).]

I feel like I'm about to step to a Craps table. Let's hit a few points!

Anyone been listening? I missed the first 30 mins.

Been listening. Nothing new really.

Didn't get a chance to follow as closely as I had planned, but the only thing new that i heard would be further details regarding the first two wells that will be drilled (First one to be named Sabu). Was also interesting to hear him address the shorts and say something to the effect of "this will not end well for them". I need to re-listen or see transcript when i have more time.

[This message has been edited by Charles Bronson (edited 6/30/2011 11:15a).]

Replay available by dialing 303-590-3030 and using the access code 4449242#

Im going to keep it simple. For further technical detail, dial in and listen above.

Risk of a dryhole and reserve estimates are really the 2 biggest things for us going into drilling:

The initial drilling strategy consists of one cheaper low risk/higher probability shallow well and another higher risk/reward well. These 2 sites are also different drilling plays geologically which is also good with regards to dryhole risk IMO.

The NSAI 3D report will come in July. It will be integrated with AVO analysis (water/gas/oil interpretation within formations). Even though HDY is still in more of a speculation stage than valuation, risked reserve estimates still play a huge role in the current share price. This is huge, and where hypothetical valuations put an upper limit on where the market will settle between success and dryholes as we approach drilling.

On a side note, I am very pleased that Ray did not pinpoint an exact release on the NSAI report. This reduces the likelihood of controlled systematic short covering and increases the probability of a short squeeze with so much short interest.

Anyone have suggestions on another entry point? I've got some cash on hand and I am looking at investing in something with a potential quick turn around or possibly increasing my position in HDY. I know it's hard to predict where this thing will go, but would any of you suggest jumping in now, or waiting?

You can't wait too long. I don't think we will see it this low again after the 3D report is released this month.

I added to my position today. I could see it going down to low 4's and maybe even high 3's (like it did the other day for about 5 min. before popping up quickly), but I wouldn't count on it. But like many have said, you never know with this stock.

I am exp...hoping to be able to pick some up in the high $3's or low low $4's in the coming days. Wish I had more cash sitting around. Unless mgmt has a trick up their sleeve, which would be awesome, the MM's likely have at least two weeks to continue to impose their will on our stock.

Here is an excerpt of the last CC on the geology/strategy. Ray defined "commercially viable" as 100-200 m barrels considering the location and economics of this particular exploration. Again, we all know the importance of success vs dry hole on first well. For that reason I am confident this strategy is in our best interest.


CEO 6/30 CC:

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“Well, as I mentioned before, the Netherland Sewell report when it comes out will show that in considerable detail. What I can say at this point in time is it will be focusing on the Upper Cretaceous reservoirs which, if you go into the Netherland Sewell report of the first resource evaluation of the offshore shows potential reservoirs above 30 percent porosity, the Upper Cretaceous sands.

You have multiple potential reservoirs here, so it’s a potential stack, you’re not just looking at one particular zone. At the shallower zones it’s a 3-way closure with a fault, but then when you get to the main potential reservoir horizons in the lower portion of the Upper Cretaceous, it’s a good 4-way anticline. So it’s a very simple straightforward trap. And one of the things we like about it geochemically is it is positioned as the first structure up-dip from the Turonian generating basins.
So you’ve got a clear migration focus into the structure, and as somebody who has spent a lot of his career focusing on the geochemical aspects of exploration, it’s a very very good place to be. [Two ‘verys’ in the original.] And then from the Weinman study, there is a very clear Class III AVO signature at one of the key reservoir horizons. So it is we believe the lowest-risk prospect. It’s large enough to be economically viable. It’s not the largest prospect we have; I would prefer to let the Netherland Sewell report come out to give you specific numbers. But it’s the best chance of finding commercial hydrocarbons.

The second structure is a larger prospect; it targets the Middle Cretaceous sands, primarily the Cenomanian and the Albian, which are a little lower in porosity, which makes it a little higher in risk.
It’s important for us that these first two wells do not test exactly the same play. So, stratigraphically, one is testing the Upper Cretaceous and the other is testing the Middle Cretaceous.”

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Geologists out there feel free to chime in.

Say everything goes well and it's now October and they're pulling up oil...what do you guys think the stock price could top out at?

Any positive movement expected due to their now being listed on the NYSE?

jump to 9-10 bucks on the news if they strike oil. then depending on how much out of the boe, is actually oil, then maybe 15-20.

this is just a guess, but i can see this scenario playing out

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Say everything goes well and it's now October and they're pulling up oil...what do you guys think the stock price could top out at?

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Im not an experienced wildcater but on a successful first hit I believe they will tap into the reservoir in other areas for appraisal data and for an optimal recovery strategy.

Then they will produce or sell proven assets for much more than they can get now. I highly doubt actual production revenue will be booked in 2011.

There is no telling at this point what the price will be at that point. I would focus on the pending NSAI report and see how the market responds to the fundamental info.

I would also pay attention to the technical share supply/demand factors on price. There are a lot of shares out on loan that need to be covered. At the same time HDY is getting more exposure into drilling.

Things are going to get interesting soon.

So... why isn't google finance tracking HDY anymore? Yahoo is.

I don't know. My first thought when I saw it was oh **** someone just bought it. But I found it on CNBC.

Google hasn't updated the move to NYSE - they are notoriously slow with this kind of thing.

Some perfomance stats since the original post (4/7/2011) to keep all of the sunshine pumping in perspective.

HDY -9.6%
SPY -0.8%
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) -1.6%
XLE (S&P Energy Sector ETF) -5.4%

Used closing prices from 4/7 and current prices as of about 10 minutes ago.

Yes, I know this has always been a speculative play.



[This message has been edited by David Carr (edited 7/12/2011 1:04p).]

Where is the "sunshine pumping"?

David Carr, thanks for the log on % returns. Please indicate "sunshine pumping"...I think this thread has been pretty good relative to other forums out there.

You should post beta values to add perspective to your comparison.

Also, Im sure there are some here who have timed this better than others and are crushing those index/etf returns (anyone who bought into the Rig PR).

That all being said, bearish sentiment based on other risk analysis or DD is welcome.

If there's any "sunshine pumping" its the potential for the long-run, not right now.

I think most people (this is me projecting my goals on everyone else) are trying to short and long play this. I'd love to sell my shares in the high 4s and wait for this stock to hit the bottom 4s (I feel like this will happen once more before any firm data is released, NSAI/actual drilling) and then hold from there.

This stock will either have a pretty decent jump (from actual finding of oil) or crash pretty hard.

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Any positive movement expected due to their now being listed on the NYSE?

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Order flow indicates there was a high level of HFT of HDY on AMEX. The high frequency traders have to adjust their algorithms for a new exchange. It may take a week or so for HFT hdy vol to pick back up on the NYSE.

*Disclaimer- Wishful thinking, not “sunshine pumping”*
If Ray were to release an impressive NSAI report this week during low HFT volume that would also mean less liquidity for shorts to cover. Covering 25 million shares amidst increased normal buying and less liquidity would almost certainly create a significant squeeze. Too bad this debt ceiling issue has a hold of the general markets right now...BUT that may be another reason for HDY mgmt to release this week before all eyes are on DC.

Considering the NYSE surprise, Im hopeful there is a discrete parallel technical strategy to combat price manipulation.

We will see soon...

There is quite a bit of risk in a 9,600 square mile offshore concession from an African country...

HDY beta vs SPX is 1.5
vs RTY and XLE it is 1.2

Even if you adjust HDY is still the underperformer over the stated time period. Sorry you don't like the numbers.

Next time I post performance stats I will leave out "Sunshine Pumping."

[This message has been edited by David Carr (edited 7/13/2011 9:59a).]

HDY has a beta of 2.5

I never said anything about "not liking" your numbers, just thanked you for your calculations.

Yes, leaving out inaccuracies is appreciated here... no need to add them in your next performance post.

I have disclosed my personal position, refrained from worthless hindsight analysis, discussed risks, tried to provide quality information, and welcomed contrary analysis.

What do you want from me?
I dont partake in cyber d*** measuring contests.